Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change. TRCA Action Plan for The Living City

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction 3 2.0 Climate Trends and Regional Climate Sensitivities 3 2.1 Global, national and regional climate trends 4 2.2 Climate change and the watersheds in TRCA s jurisdiction 9 3.0 TRCA s Climate Change Approach 12 3.1 Adaptation 12 3.2 Mitigation 13 4.0 What is TRCA doing to Address Climate Impacts? 14 5.0 TRCA s Climate Action Plan: Framework 16 5.1 Guiding principals: Identifying priorities within a risk and vulnerability framework 16 5.2 Process 17 6.0 TRCA s Climate Action Plan: Gap Analysis 18 6.1 Knowledge and understanding of climate impacts 18 6.2 Policy and design standards 19 6.3 Monitoring and long-term data collection for local trends 19 6.4 Inter-agency coordination 19 6.5 Funding 19 7.0 TRCA s Climate Action Plan: Key Priority Actions 19 7.1 Adaptation 19 7.1.1 Increasing our knowledge and understanding 19 7.1.2 Reducing risk to communities 20 7.1.3 Building a resilient natural system in the GTA 20 7.2 Mitigation 21 7.2.1 Promoting a culture of conservation through market transformation 21 7.2.2 Greening our own operations 21 7.2.3 Leadership through partnership 21 8.0 Measuring our Progress and Performance 22 8.1 Measuring our progress 22 8.2 Measuring our performance 22 9.0 Communicating our Message 22 10.0 Moving Ahead with Implementation 23 11.0 Appendix 24 12.0 References 27

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 2 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Projected climate changes for southern Ontario 9 Table 2: Climate change and potential ground impacts within TRCA s jurisdiction 10-11 Table 3: TRCA s actions to address climate change 16 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Projected changes in summer temperatures in southern Ontario for 2071-2100 (MNR, 2007a) 6 Figure 2: Projected changes in winter temperatures in southern Ontario for 2071-2100 (MNR, 2007a) 6 Figure 3: Ontario precipitation: Projected seasonal precipitation changes between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100, Canadian Model, CGCM1 (EC) 7 Figure 4: Biodiversity: Changes in family forest diversity in Ontario under 2XCO2 climate warming (EC) 8 Figure 5: Addressing climate change at TRCA 12 Figure 6: TRCA s Climate Action Plan: Process 18

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 3 1.0 INTRODUCTION Toronto and Region Conservation (TRCA) is committed to taking immediate action and exemplifying leadership to support our communities and partners in dealing with climate change mitigation and adaptation. Our Strategic Plan, Moving Toward The Living City, identifies that recognizing and integrating climate change will be a critical component in achieving the objectives and goals of a healthy, sustainable urban region extending into the 22nd century. Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change: TRCA Action Plan for the Living City is a proactive strategy to address the impacts of climate change within our jurisdiction and provides a business planning framework through the coming decade. With adaptation and mitigation at the core of our efforts, we believe that TRCA will be in a strong position to exemplify leadership and support our communities and partners in dealing with climate change. Toronto and Region Conservation s climate action plan builds on our strengths in adaptive watershed management and leadership in the application of sustainability at the local level. 2.0 CLIMATE TRENDS AND REGIONAL CLIMATE SENSITIVITIES Southern Ontario is beginning to experience an array of climatic changes ranging from increasing temperatures to erratic precipitation, drought, flooding and unpredictable weather. Toronto and Region Conservation recognizes that although the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) will be among the more fortunate areas of the world as the climate continues to change, serious challenges remain. For example: The hydrologic cycle and, therefore, water quantity and quality, will be affected by changing temperatures, as well as the changes in the seasonal distribution and intensity of precipitation. Air quality, already a significant issue in the GTA, may degrade as the climate becomes warmer, causing increased human health risks. Electricity short-falls will likely grow as demand on the grid increases, thus increasing the likelihood of brownouts.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 4 Some invasive species, whose habitat was previously limited due to climate conditions, may now be able to survive in the GTA, resulting in a rise of invasive species as well as create a strain on our natural systems. Increased potential for the spread of disease and pest infestation will stress local species and their habitat. Scientists around the world are convinced that climate change is now underway and is principally caused by a build up of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, the result of excessive burning of fossil fuels since the industrial revolution. According to international scientific consensus, it is too late to completely stop the advance of climate change. However, we can and should work to slow it down. Since the last Ice Age, approximately 10,000 years BC, the land has risen, lake drainages have changed and the climate has gone through periods of warming and cooling. In the past hundred years, as a result of human activities, greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have increased to levels that scientists have concluded are changing our climate. (NRCan, 2006) We appreciate that in order to effectively provide leadership to our partners and communities in dealing with the impacts of climate change, we must have a strong understanding of how the science of climate change works and how climate change will affect us and our watersheds in the future. The following section looks at some of the general climate trends on the global, national and regional scale, then using climate indicators, presents the trends that are likely to impact TRCA s jurisdiction. 2.1 Global, national and regional climate trends Following much research and analysis, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the leading international body charged with deciphering what climate change holds for our future, concludes that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. (IPCC, 2007)

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 5 Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 2006) rank among the warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). (IPCC, 2007) The IPCC expects that warming in the 21st century will be greatest over land, and at most, in the higher northern latitudes. It further suggests that it is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. In both hemispheres, mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined, contributing to the rise in sea levels. In the Arctic, in particular, over the last 100 years, temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the global average rate. For most of Canada, this translates into temperature increases both on a seasonal basis, with winters warming more than summers, and on a daily basis, with evenings warming more than daytime. Along with increased warming, Canada is expected to experience changes in precipitation patterns, changes in climate variability, and shifts in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (NRCan, 2004). These projected changes to Canada s climate will have far-reaching impacts, influencing everything from forest composition, to aquatic and terrestrial life, to agriculture. As with all environmental change, the net impact of warmer temperatures is uncertain. Forests (and agriculture), for example, could benefit from a longer growing season. These benefits, however, would likely be offset by associated increases in moisture stress, ecosystem instability, and increases in the frequency and intensity of forest fires, insect outbreaks (shorter, warmer winters translate into increased persistence of insects that would normally die off during the cold of winter; range expands (Hunt et al, 2006)) and extreme weather events. Similarly, under the Coupled General Circulation Model 2 (second generation), A2 scenario (CGCM2 A2), southern Ontario is expected to experience an increase in annual temperature in the order of two to six degrees Celsius, with summer temperatures rising by two to five degrees Celsius and winter temperatures increasing by three to six degrees Celsius (MNR, 2007a) during the summer of 2005, Toronto had 41 days where the average temperature was over 30 degrees Celsius, almost a three-fold increase from the average during 1961 1990 (EC, 2005b). In addition, winter cold extremes that now occur on average every 10 years are expected to occur less than once every 80 years (EC, 2004).

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 6 Figure 1: Projected changes in summer temperatures in southern Ontario for 2071 2100 (MNR, 2007a) Figure 2: Projected changes in winter temperatures in southern Ontario for 2071 2100 (MNR, 2007a)

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 7 Projections of warmer temperatures are consistent with observed trends in the region where the frost-free period has lengthened and total annual snowfall has decreased. Snow cover, depth and duration have also been reduced, and lake ice coverage has declined, with later dates of freezing and earlier ice-off dates. As temperatures rise in southern Ontario, annual precipitation is expected to become more variable. For most of southern Ontario, under the Coupled General Circulation Model 1 (first generation) (CGCM1), the greatest seasonal changes for precipitation are expected in the winter, where increases are expected on the order of 10 30 per cent by 2100 (EC, 2004); summer precipitation is expected to increase or decrease by up to 10 per cent further supporting future variability, summer 2007 saw Toronto experience the lowest rainfall total since record keeping began in 1959 (EC, 2007). Warmer winter temperatures translate into more precipitation falling as rain, instead of as snow. While a significant overall increase in precipitation totals is not anticipated, an increase in occurrence and intensity of extreme rainfall events is expected. The warmer temperatures are expected to increase evaporation which will likely result in a general lowering of water levels in the Great Lakes (NRCan, 2008). This will lead to warmer water temperatures, and will affect the timing of seasonal mixing and overall water quality. Figure 3: Ontario precipitation: Projected seasonal precipitation changes between 1975 1995 and 2080 2100 (EC, 2004) S rn Ont 10-30% increase S rn Ont a rio Within +/ - 10%

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 8 Southern Ontario is expected to experience an increase in occurrence of smog advisory days. In 2005, Ontario recorded 53 smog advisory days, exceeding the previous records of 27 smog advisory days in 2002. This trend is expected to continue (MOE, 2007). As the climate becomes warmer, biodiversity will change. Typically, warmer environments support greater biodiversity. That being said, in southern Ontario, the potential increase in biodiversity may come at the expense of the native species, as they are either stressed or out-competed by non-native invasive species migrating north. According to Environment Canada, one or two degrees of warming could have a significant impact on biodiversity and land use in southern Ontario. For each mean degree of temperature increase, this translates into the addition of roughly one forest family (one forest family, for example, includes all of the pine, spruce and fir trees). This suggests that over the next 100 years, the hardwood tree biodiversity potential of southern Ontario has the potential to move well into northern Ontario (See Fig. 4: Biodiversity: Changes in family forest diversity in Ontario under 2XCO2 climate warming). Trees and vegetation, however, do not migrate at such a quick rate and, as a result, may be stressed by the imbalance. Figure 4: Biodiversity: Changes in family forest diversity in Ontario under 2XCO2 climate warming (EC, 2004)

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 9 Table 1: Projected climate changes for southern Ontario Climate variable General/specific changes expected Seasonal/geographic pattern of change Supported by science/source Temperature Southern Ontario is expected to experience temperature increases of 2 to 6 C. Under HadCM3, annual mean warming for Toronto (2050s) is expected to increase by 2.5 to 4.0 C (NRCan, 2006); under CGCM2 A2 annual temperature increases in southern Ontario will be more pronounced in the winter (3 to 6 C) than in the summer (2 to 5 C) (MNR, 2007a). Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) 2006, Coastal Zones and Climate Change on the Great Lakes: Final Report; Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) 2007, Climate Change Projections for Ontario: Practical Information for Policymakers and Planners. Southern Ontario is expected to experience a decline in cold extremes. Winter cold extremes that now occur on average once every 10 years will likely occur less than once every 80 years. Environment Canada (EC) 2004, Understanding Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Actions to be Taken. Precipitation Annual precipitation is expected to become more variable and the ratio of snow to annual precipitation is expected to decrease. Under HadCM3, Toronto is projected to experience total annual precipitation increases of two to 13 per cent (NRCan, 2006). Under CGCM2 A2, however, southern Ontario, south of Owen Sound to Pembroke, is expected to experience a decline in precipitation of up to 10 per cent, while north of Owen Sound to Pembroke, precipitation is expected to increase by 10 per cent (MNR, 2007a). Under CGCM1, winter precipitation increases are expected on the order of 10 30 per cent, while summer precipitation is expected to increase or decrease by up to 10 per cent. Overall increase in occurrence and intensity of extreme rainfall events, decline in the total number of winter storm events. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) 2006, Coastal Zones and Climate Change on the Great Lakes: Final Report; Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) 2007, Climate Change Projections for Ontario: Practical Information for Policymakers and Planners. Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) 2006, Coastal Zones and Climate Change on the Great Lakes: Final Report Southern Ontario could experience a decrease in freezing rain events during the months of November, April and May (10 per cent by 2050, and 15 per cent by 2080). Future freezing rain events could increase during the months of December, January and February (40 per cent by 2050, and 45 per cent by 2080). Cheng et al. 2007. Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Smog Southern Ontario is expected to experience an increase in the occurrence of smog advisory days. In 2005, Ontario recorded 53 smog advisory days, exceeding the previous records of 27 smog advisory days in 2002. This trend is expected to continue. Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE) 2007, http://www.ene.gov.on.ca/en/air/climatechange/ index.php Emissions / GHGs Atmospheric CO2 is expected to increase. Canadian Coupled Global Circulation Model (CGCM2) A2, a mid-range scenario, projects atmospheric CO2 concentration of 1320 ppm by 2100. Data collected from polar ice cores show that concentrations of CO2 have increased by 30 per cent since the start of the industrial revolution and are expected to reach 970 ppm by 2100. Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (MNR) 2007, Climate Change Projections for Ontario: Practical Information for Policymakers and Planners Environment Canada (EC) 2004, Understanding Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Actions to be Taken 2.2 Climate change and the watersheds in TRCA s jurisdiction Toronto and Region Conservation s jurisdiction is influenced by the sheer magnitude of its urban centres. Urban centres rely on municipal infrastructure such as sewage and water treatment facilities, roads, bridges and dams, electricity and communications. The forecasted increase in extreme events, such as storms, flooding and drought, will create additional risk to both these facilities and their operational function, placing municipal infrastructure at risk and, therefore impact the operation of our urban centres. Further exacerbating the effects of climate change are urban centres and urban sprawl, which contribute to energy absorption and surface runoff. This is a result, in large part, of the abundance of paved surfaces. Along with warmer water temperatures, increased surface runoff will impact the physical, chemical and ecological health of the streams, rivers and lakes in TRCA s jurisdiction. At this time, as a result of the current state of the science of climate modeling, the levels of uncertainty with both Global and Regional climate models, it is difficult to clearly define how climate change will be manifested on the scale of TRCA s jurisdiction.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 10 While most global climate change models predict increases in temperature and variability in precipitation in the southern Ontario region, predictions vary widely between models in terms of both total change and the seasonal distribution of those changes. Further, because of the scale of the global models, the smallest prediction units are in the range of 100,000 square kilometres, it is not possible to effectively predict climate change effects on a local scale. To better understand how local climate patterns will be influenced by climate change, TRCA and its partners have begun to explore techniques to more accurately predict local climate change. Table 2: Climate change and potential ground impacts within TRCA s jurisdiction Sector Impact and system response Terrestrial ecosystems (including urban forests) Northward expansion of the Carolinian Zone. Most tree species migrate at a rate of only four to 200 kilometres/century. Models predict a northward shift of more than 500 kilometres/century. Unable to keep pace with climate change, woodlots are more likely to become stressed or die out, leading to loss of native biodiversity (EC, 2005a). While warmer landscapes will support greater biodiversity, the increase in future species may originate from invasion of exotics and loss of native biodiversity. Species loss as a result of habitat change (e.g., grassland birds will shift northwards but their habitat will not likely move at the same rate). Species loss as a result of inability to compete with invasive species and decoupled species relationships. Proliferation of over-wintering insect pests which will impact agricultural and forestry production. Where land use creates barriers to dispersal of native species and facilitates dispersal of exotic species, climate change in urban areas/human-dominated landscapes of GTA is likely to produce more exotic species than native species. Plants growing earlier in the spring with earlier germination leaf-out and flowering times. Increased decline of some tree species such as pines and maples. Uncertain impacts on wetlands: structure, function, hydrology. Water quantity and quality (hydrology) Warmer temperatures exacerbate air-quality problems in urban centres and may result in increased production of ozone and other photochemical components of smog (NRCan, 2008); increased occurrence of human respirator difficulties; risk of solar radiation during outdoor recreation; and a likely increase in vector-borne diseases such as malaria, Lyme disease and West Nile virus; water-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses. Extreme weather events may further cause risks to human life and property due to flooding. Changes in flora and fauna may have impacts on nature-based recreation such as bird watching, angling and nature viewing; however, climate change may result in a net positive impact on nature-based tourism and outdoor recreation in our jurisdiction due to increasing season length for warm-weather activities. Canoeing may be limited due to potential reduction in baseflow in some lower tributaries of the watersheds. Loss of swimming days due to beach closures because of bacteria. Table 2 continued on page 11

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 11 Table 2 continued from page 10 Sector Impact and system response Aquatic ecosystems (including coastal eco-systems) As surface temperatures increase, water temperatures are expected to rise as well. Warmer waters may result in sensitive aquatic species moving upstream to maintain temperature conditions resulting in the loss of coldwater fisheries, e.g., trout and salmon; the invasion of non-native species such as common carp and zebra mussels, which will alter fish community. Reduced ice cover which, when coupled with an increase in extreme events, will increase erosion and sediment loading. Rapid spring warming may cause shallower and steeper thermoclines. Infrastructure Increased risk to municipal infrastructure (e.g., increase in road washouts, increased stress on flood water management system, increased capacity demands on storm sewers and stormwater management systems). Increased cost of insurance as a result of flooded basements and buildings, and extreme weather (insurance losses multiplied more than 13 times from 1960 to 1999 (CAP, 2007). Increase in temperature and extreme events may pose a risk to the integrity and longevity of built heritage structures. Increase in freeze/thaw cycles may create premature deterioration of roads. Energy Peak summer power demand has already shifted the way energy is produced and distributed. Rising energy costs, growing demand for energy, higher peak energy demand due to challenging weather conditions, and aging infrastructure are all challenges Toronto will face in the coming years (EEO, 2007). As a result, in part, of increasing demand for summer cooling and decreasing hydroelectric capacity, Ontario s electricity supply will need to be replaced with a combination of new supply/ peak demand management and conservation (NRCan, 2008). In recent years, rising water temperatures in the Great Lakes have impacted electricity generation by reducing the efficiency of cooling systems within nuclear and coal-fired plants (NRCan, 2008). Human communities (human health/ recreation) Warmer temperatures exacerbate air-quality problems in urban centres and may result in increased production of ozone and other photochemical components of smog (NRCan, 2008); increased occurrence of human respirator difficulties; risk of solar radiation during outdoor recreation; and a likely increase in vector-borne diseases such as malaria, Lyme disease and West Nile virus; water-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses. Extreme weather events may further cause risks to human life and property due to flooding. Changes in flora and fauna may have impacts on nature-based recreation such as bird watching, angling and nature viewing; however, climate change may result in a net positive impact on nature-based tourism and outdoor recreation in our jurisdiction due to increasing season length for warm-weather activities. Canoeing may be limited due to potential reduction in baseflow in some lower tributaries of the watersheds. Loss of swimming days due to beach closures because of bacteria. Agriculture Both positive and negative impacts are expected longer frost-free periods could extend the growing season and potential for new crop varieties. Longer frost-free periods support invasion of pests and disease, leading to greater crop losses (NRCan, 2008). Potential for more local production in the GTA. High plant productivity due to increased CO2. Climate variability severe drought and floods could damage crops. High temperatures may stress livestock, lowering dairy production and weight gains in beef cattle (Kling et al., 2003).

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 12 3.0 TRCA S CLIMATE CHANGE APPROACH Toronto and Region Conservation believes that acting sustainably in our everyday activities is important to adapt and mitigate against climate change. Due to this belief, TRCA has been incorporating sustainable thinking and values into its operations and programs since its incorporation in 1957. From water management to energy conservation, TRCA has positioned itself well within the community and with its partners. At TRCA, we are not only integrating climate change into our own business operations, we are also proposing new partnerships and leveraging advanced science to meet the climate challenge on a local, regional and national scale. Figure 5: Addressing climate change at TRCA (adapted from Environment Canada) Climite Change Including variability Mitigation Via GHG sources and sinks (energy, reforestation) Impact Autonomous adaptation Planned Adaptation/watershed management Responses 3.1 Adaptation As an agency created to manage inherently dynamic natural systems, TRCA has needed to be an adaptive management agency. Toronto and Region Conservation s adaptation approach is based on reducing harm to individuals, and building resilient natural systems and watersheds. To decrease vulnerabilities to climate risks and to take advantage of potential opportunities and benefits resulting from the changing climate, TRCA has initiated work to identify climate risks in communities and natural systems. Adaptation strategies will be integrated into TRCA s existing business areas and implemented through long-term planning. These strategies will also evolve as TRCA s understanding of impacts on natural systems improves through monitoring and evaluation. Toronto and Region Conservation is currently participating, on behalf of Conservation Ontario, on two provincial committees which have climate change as a significant focus: the Provincial Urban Flooding Working Group, which is tasked with developing a provincial strategy around urban flooding;

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 13 and, a Ministry of Environment committee, which is in the process of reviewing the current policies and guidelines pertaining to municipal stormwater management, to determine how to integrate climate change. Under a separate process, the TRCA is working with Environment Canada, multiple conservation areas and several municipalities on a Pilot Study, with a focus to address the existing short comings of the present process of developing Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves, and therefore creating adaptive capacity within this critical design tool. 3.2 Mitigation Toronto and Region Conservation s climate mitigation approach is focused around conservation, eco-efficiencies and human health benefits. Toronto and Region Conservation is committed to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) on an operational level, continuing to develop new partnerships to accelerate the knowledge and implementation of new technologies, increasing awareness through The Living City Campus at Kortright and engaging the community through several community transformation programs. Energy production and consumption account for more than 80 per cent of the greenhouse gas emissions in Canada (MNR, 2007b). According to the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy (NRTEE), significant (60 per cent) reductions in GHG emissions can be achieved by the mid-century if energy is used more efficiently and if energy production emits less carbon. To reach this end, NRTEE suggests that we must deploy a variety of different GHG emission-reduction technologies in a variety of different sectors. In order to achieve a large reduction in GHG emissions by the mid-century, the electricity sector must transform. Clean coal, cogeneration and renewables - particularly wind, which Ontario, for example, intends to acquire to 5,000 megawatts by 2025 - offer considerable GHG emission reductions. 40 per cent of the proposed 60 per cent reduction can be achieved from energy efficiency alone - 90 per cent of the family dwellings will undergo energy audits - 165,000 homes/year over the next 50 years. (NRTEE, 2006) The strongest mechanism to reduce GHG emissions is through energy efficiency and conser-vation. In addition to our core mandate of conservation, TRCA has joined forces with several partners from all sectors to accelerate the application of renewable energy technologies, green building design and energy-efficiency programs.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 14 4.0 WHAT IS TRCA DOING TO ADDRESS CLIMATE IMPACTS? Watershed plans Toronto and Region Conservation is currently developing the next generation of watershed plans to address climate change and adaptive management. To maximize the effectiveness of the plans, TRCA is working with climate prediction models through the Rouge and Humber rivers watershed plans to better prepare for future variability. Flood management to reduce risk With the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, flood forecasting and early warning systems have been updated. State-of-risk information is communicated to partner municipalities and the public to ensure that the risks to life and property as a result of flooding are effectively managed. The West Don Lands Flood Protection Project and the Don Mouth Naturalization and Port Lands flood protection design are examples of TRCA s approach of integrating reduction of flood risks into community design. Water balance To address the impact of the increased surface runoff from urban sprawl, innovative stormwater management and water balance technologies are being developed through the Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program (STEP). Examples include permeable pavement, bio-retention swales, rainwater harvesting systems, erosion and sediment control ponds, air biofiltration systems and rooftop gardens. Enhancing greenspace Toronto and Region Conservation is the largest landowner (15,000 hectares) in the GTA region. The purpose of TRCA s Greenlands Acquisition Project is to secure public greenspace for the protection of our natural heritage, air quality and the health of the population. A Terrestrial Natural Heritage Systems Strategy (TNHSS) has been developed to protect and enhance regional biodiversity within TRCA s jurisdiction. To assist partner municipalities and communities in reducing urban heat island effects, and to ensure improved air quality, TRCA is undertaking an Urban Tree Canopy study with our partner municipalities, and working to augment existing forest cover wherever appropriate. Toronto and Region Conservation planted more than 250,000 trees in 2007 alone. Local food production Today, a total of 1,396 hectares of TRCA land is rented for agricultural use. Within its land base, TRCA is well placed to support the emergence of new near-urban agriculture. Near-urban agriculture reduces the ecological footprint of communities through the provision of locally grown food. One such project, the 3.2-hectare urban farm on TRCA-owned land in Black Creek Pioneer Village, was developed in 2005 in partnership with the City of Toronto and other community groups.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 15 Sustainable community development The Block 39 project, located in the City of Vaughan, is currently the largest Energy Star community under development in Ontario. Facilitated by TRCA, this project has been supported by the developer, the builders, the gas and electric utilities, the City of Vaughan and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). Block 39 will be a local example of the sustainable technologies that The Living City Campus at Kortright will be demonstrating. Green building partnerships Toronto and Region Conservation has formed a partnership with two green building councils, the Canada Green Building Council Greater Toronto Chapter (CaGBC-GTC) and the World Green Building Council (WGBC). In both cases, TRCA assists in programming and operations. In May, 2007, TRCA won the bid to host the World Green Building Council secretariat in the Earth Rangers building at The Living City Campus at Kortright. Greening our own operations Toronto and Region Conservation has incorporated sustainable thinking and values into its own buildings, lands, operations and programs since 1957. Points of pride for the organization are the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Platinum certification of the Restoration Service Centre and the fact that the building uses 100 per cent green energy. The Kortright Centre, which is at the heart of The Living City Campus, is another TRCA facility that uses 100 per cent green energy. Modelling sustainability The Living City Campus at Kortright The Living City Campus at Kortright offers a model for sustainable design and practices. As a Centre of Excellence, it has the potential to be a global centre of research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation within urban environments. Community transformation Several programs dealing with greening retail, health care and municipal facilities are underway. One such program, the Mayor s Megawatt Challenge, has already achieved a total energy savings of two per cent. This energy savings has resulted in the reduction of 1,500 tonnes of GHG emissions since 2003. Education and outreach Toronto and Region Conservation has been a partner in the Ontario EcoSchools program since 2002 and is the first conservation authority, and Black Creek Pioneer Village the first museum, to achieve Ontario EcoSchools certification. The PowerStream Energy Education Pilot Project aims to generate immediate and long-term energy savings through behaviour change and actions in schools, the community and private homes. Carbon Footprint Calculators are being developed with municipal partners. With this information in-hand, people will be given options for reducing their personal carbon contributions to the environment.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 16 Table 3: TRCA s actions to address climate change ADAPTATION COMMON MITIGATION Flood protection and early warning systems (flood forecasting and warning program) Flood management; protection of flood vulnerable areas Spatial and temporal monitoring (Regional Watershed Monitoring Program) Diverse aquatic system (fisheries management plans) Watershed modeling and adaptive management (Rouge and Humber) Water balance modeling Innovative stormwater management approach Erosion and remedial works Species recovery plans Greenspace acquisition Adaptive design Lake Ontario shoreline (functional design for flood protection) Natural resource management/ restoration techniques to improve hydrology Public education and awareness onconservation (Ontario EcoSchools and Watershed on Wheels programs) Curriculum-linked education programs on climate change (Climate Calamity and Whether the Weather) Urban Tree Canopy Urban agriculture Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program (STEP) Green energy procurement (20 per cent from Bullfrog Power) The Living City Campus The Living City partnerships (World Green Building Council and Canada Green Building Council) Community transformation programs (Greening Retail and Renewable Energy Program) LEED Platinum-certified infrastructure (Restoration Services Centre) Green Fleet Program Pearson Eco Business Zone (water, waste and energy efficiencies with industrial commercial and institutional (ICI) sector) The Living City Zerofootprint Calculator Sustainable Management Systems (SMS) (carbon zero operations) Infrastructure and assets energy management 5.0 TRCA S CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: FRAMEWORK To determine how best to lead our partners and communities against climate change, TRCA has developed Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change: TRCA Action Plan for The Living City, the intent of which is to integrate the concepts of climate change including the need to define both adaptation and mitigation opportunities into all business areas of TRCA. The premise for our current climate planning is based on our history in adaptive management, our strategic plan direction and our recent work on climate change mitigation. A set of guiding principles have informed this work: 5.1 Guiding principles: Identifying priorities within a risk and vulnerability framework a) Increase TRCA s internal capacity and share that expertise with our municipalities to deal with climate change impacts. b) Increase staff (internal) and public (external) awareness of climate change and its potential impacts. c) Include climate considerations and information into planning and policy decisions. d) Increase the adaptive capacity of watersheds (natural environment and built infrastructure) and their human communities. e) Strengthen existing partnerships and create new ones to accelerate the application of mitigation technologies and programs.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 17 5.2 Process Knowledge share and information exchange: Forums and workshops Over the past decade, TRCA has made a concerted effort to bring together stakeholders from government and other agencies to stay updated on climate impacts and to share information on new programs and strategies that deal with mitigation and adaptation. A series of climate change forums have been hosted since 1999 to broaden awareness about the need to identify and develop appropriate adaptive management techniques to deal with climate impacts in TRCA s jurisdiction. Literature/information review The first step was to undertake a thorough review of the existing climate information and current weather trends on the global, national and local scale to better understand the state of the science of climate change and possible impacts on TRCA s jurisdiction. This information was used to present the climate sensitivities expected to impact the jurisdiction of TRCA. Framework The next step was to develop a framework from which to explore TRCA s vulnerabilities to climate change. The framework included the creation of a Climate Strategy Working Group composed of key managers (called primary contacts ) representing all business service areas of TRCA. The task of the committee was to agree upon a final framework, then move forward with a business analysis, within the climate change context, of all TRCA s business service areas. Business area analysis Toronto and Region Conservations existing (2003 2007) Business Plan framework was used to undertake the business analysis. Divisional representatives met with members of their business service area to answer the four key questions: a) Key assumptions and vulnerabilities Understanding climate risks to the service areas of TRCA. Question: What does climate change mean for the products and services in your business area? b) TRCA climate preparedness Determine TRCA s climate preparedness by evaluating current programs and initiatives that address climate change. Question: What are you doing now? c) Key internal and external gaps Identify the gaps in knowledge, policy and programming in order to understand how we can improve our climate preparedness. Question: What are the gaps? d) Priority actions moving forward based on assumptions and gaps Prioritize steps moving forward to maximize our ability to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Question: What are your recommendations? Following the amalgamation of this information and the identification of key recommendations (see Appendix A), the second step was to create an action plan that embraces the key priorities and echoes the vision of The Living City. These priorities were then integrated into the 2007 Business Plan.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 18 Figure 6: TRCA s climate action plan: Process PROCESS Knowledge Share and Information Exchange Forums and Workshops Literature/Information Review Climate Science Current Weather Trends Climate Change Strategy Framework CAO s Office Climate Stratagy Working Group (Business Service Areas Environmental Science; Conservation Lands; Development Services and Regulations; Environmental Regeneration; Waterfronts, Watersheds and Oac Ridges Moraine; Conservation Parks; Education; Corporate Services; Living City Partnerships Risk and Vulnerability Analysis Review and Final Analysis Business Analysis Key Assumptions and Gaps TRCA Climate Preparedness Key Internal and External Gaps Priority Actions Moving Forward Meeting the Challange of Climate Change: TRCA Action Plan for The Living City Internal and External Communication Plan 6.0 TRCA S CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: GAP ANALYSIS Identification of key internal and external gaps was an important step in TRCA s climate planning exercise. Gaps that may impact the effective and timely development and implementation of adaptation and mitigation actions within our jurisdiction have been highlighted below. Toronto and Region Conservation intends to work with our municipal partners, Conservation Ontario and other government agencies to address these gaps as an important strategic priority. 6.1 Knowledge and understanding of climate impacts The current temporal and spatial scale of climate models and other predictive tools fall well short of most local needs to allow local decision-makers to integrate appropriate information in their operation and decision-making process.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 19 Moreover, quantitative analysis of existing programs and restoration efforts to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change needs to be developed. And, the effect climate change will have on potable water supply, e.g., in the context of the Clean Water Act, Drinking Water Source Protection Act and the Remedial Action Plan should be explored further. 6.2 Policy and design standards There is a need for updated provincial policies and guidelines to deal with aging and inadequate municipal stormwater infrastructure in the GTA. Also, a review and update of the Municipal Act, Planning Act and Conservation Authorities Act needs to be undertaken to incorporate innovative stormwater applications, low impact design, energy conservation and renewable energy applications. Similarly, green development standards and energy planning should be considered as a key criterion for all future growth and intensities within the Provincial Growth Management Plan. 6.3 Monitoring and long-term data collection for local trends Toronto and Region Conservation s Regional Monitoring Program has been collecting data and monitoring trends within our jurisdiction. To understand climate impacts terrestrial and aquatic systems, in future, the scope of the programs must be expanded. This will require additional resources and funding support. 6.4 Inter-agency coordination Toronto and Region Conservation proposes a coordinated effort through GTA wide Municipal Action Groups and Centre of Excellence for Research and Development in climate mitigation and adaptation. 6.5 Funding Funding support from TRCA s municipal partners and senior levels of government will be critical to undertake actions and address gaps highlighted in Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change: TRCA Action Plan for The Living City. Toronto and Region Conservation must invest adaptive business models to generate long-term, sustainable revenue. Some suggestions are provided under the Recommendations section of this report. 7.0 TRCA S CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: KEY PRIORITY ACTIONS In order to exemplify leadership and support our communities and partners in dealing with climate change, we must remain proactive and constantly strive to learn more about how we can mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. Listed below are our key priorities that not only help TRCA achieve its business plan objectives but also bolster our ability to support our communities and municipal partners in dealing with climate change. 7.1 Adaptation 7.1.1 Increasing our knowledge and understanding To develop a greater understanding of local climate change impacts and vulnerability in watersheds, TRCA will: a) Work with Environment Canada and municipal partners on future climate predictions for TRCA s jurisdiction to enable climate impact assessment on a local scale;

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 20 b) Assess state-of-the-art climate change adaptation and watershed management in Ontario in partnership with the Ontario Centre of Excellence and develop information-sharing partnerships with experts (e.g., government, nongovernment and academics); c) Strengthen the scope of STEP to include green building technologies; and, d) Conduct research and technology sharing information sessions to inform partner municipalities of new research, best practices and tools. 7.1.2 Reducing risk to communities To assist partner municipalities and communities to reduce threats to life and property as a result of flooding and erosion, reduce urban heat island effects and improve air quality, TRCA will: a) Continue to work with Conservation Ontario and Environment Canada to develop regional Intensity Duration Frequency (IDF) curves and protocols to integrate climate change into water-related infrastructure design practices; b) Continue to work with Conservation Ontario, the province and municipalities to review urban flooding issues and define direction of future needs; c) Manage conservation areas such as Bruce s Mill Conservation Area, Petticoat Creek Conservation Area, Heart Lake Conservation Area and Kortright Centre as summer heat escape locations with increased distribution of cooling/misting stations; d) Work with Metrolinx to increase public accessibility to conservation areas during the summer months; e) Retrofit waterfront parks with designs for fluctuating water levels (shoreline protection and habitat) and shade for park visitors; e) Acquire and enhance approximately 4,000 hectares of greenspace with a projected purchase expense of approximately $ 22.5 million for the objective of improving air quality, community health and biodiversity; and, f) Update the Valley and Stream Corridor Management Program and Greenlands Acquisition Program, create new sustainable communities policies and a policy for sustainable near-urban agriculture on TRCA lands to address gaps in current policies, incorporate new science related to climate change and promote local food production. 7.1.3 Building a resilient natural system in the GTA It is recognized that biodiversity of terrestrial and aquatic systems is the foundation for climate change resilience and adaptation. To ensure this, TRCA will: a) Augment existing forest cover on TRCA lands, valley corridors and table lands identified as potential natural cover in the Terrestrial Natural Heritage Strategy (TNHS); b) Develop species recovery plans to increase robustness of land base and establish species recovery areas within the TNHS, incorporating a monitoring and reporting plan; and, c) Expand the scope of the Regional Monitoring Program (RMN) to assess spatial and temporal changes to terrestrial and aquatic systems resulting from climate change impacts.

Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change TRCA Action Plan for The Living City 21 7.2 Mitigation 7.2.1 Promoting a culture of conservation through market transformation To achieve a 60 per cent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2050, the areas where Canadians can have the greatest impact will be in energy efficiency, conservation and urban form (NRTEE, 2006). To help reduce the carbon footprint of the GTA, TRCA will: a) Establish North America s largest (12,000 hectare) Eco-Business Zone near Pearson International Airport to improve the financial and environmental performance of industrial commercial and institutional (ICI) sector industries through energy, waste and water efficiencies, and synergies between companies; b) Develop education and outreach programs that enrich and prepare students and education professionals with the knowledge, skills, perspectives and practices needed in order to respond to climate change; and, c) Work with the Canada Green Building Council Greater Toronto Chapter, World Green Building Council, the development industry and municipal partners to build on existing sustainable community development initiatives and support the growth of environmentally friendly urban development. 7.2.2 Greening our own operations To reduce TRCA s total carbon footprint (carbon inputs and outputs), TRCA will: a) Develop and implement a corporate asset, energy and waste management plan; b) Set ongoing targets for energy and GHG emission reductions (TRCA will aim for 30 per cent reduction below baseline in 10 years); c) Implement TRCA buildings and facilities retrofits with the aim of having all TRCA buildings and facilities LEED certified within 20 years; d) Develop and implement a corporate local food policy/guideline, incorporating food lifecycle and intended use; aim for 80 per cent waste reduction at education centres within the next 10 years; e) Achieve Platinum Energy Environment Excellence (E3) Fleet status for all TRCA fleet vehicles within the next five years; and, f) Incorporate zero carbon principles into all TRCA activities, aiming for a 10 per cent reduction every two years. 7.2.3 Leadership through partnership TRCA will: a) Partner with universities, World Green Building Council, Building Industry & Land Development (BILD) Association, municipalities and other local governments to accelerate the work of establishing an Ontario Centre for Municipal Action on Climate Change a provincial centre for research and development in climate change adaptation and mitigation with a global reputation.