July 212 Property team Hong Kong & China Derek Kwong* Head of Real Estate Equity Research, Asia +82 2996 6629 derekkwong@hsbc.com.hk Michelle Kwok* +82 2996 6918 michellekwok@hsbc.com.hk Perveen Wong* +82 2996 671 perveenwong@hsbc.com.hk Phillip Zhong* +82 2996 63 phillipyzhong@hsbc.com.hk Stanley Cheung* +82 2822 439 stanleyyccheung@hsbc.com.hk Southeast Asia Pratik Ray* Senior, Singapore Branch +6 668 62 pratikray@hsbc.com.sg David Choo*, Singapore Branch +6 668 61 davidthchoo@hsbc.com.sg Taiwan Abel Lee* HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited +886 2 872 626 abelchlee@hsbc.com.tw India Ashutosh Narkar* HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited +91 22 2268 1474 ashutoshnarkar@hsbc.co.in *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 1
2 Sector structure Indirect- Listed Company Developers Real Estate Investment Direct Property Asset Asia-Pacific Equity Research July 212 Landlords REITs China Hong Kong Developers REITs Developers Landlords REITs Agile Guangzhou Cheung Kong Hongkong Land Champion China Resources Land Investment Hang Lung Properties Hysan Fortune China Overseas Land & Investment Hui Xian Kerry Properties Great Eagle Prosperity Country Garden New World Development Wharf Regal Evergrande Sino Land Sunlight Franshion Sun Hung Kai Properties The Link Greentown Guangzhou R&F KWG Longfor Shimao Shui On Land Sino Ocean SOHO China Yanlord Source: HSBC
Sector price history, 4, 4, 4 4 3 Asia-Pacific Equity Research July 212 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 3 2 2 1 1 Jan- Jan-1 Jan-2 Jan-3 Jan-4 Jan- Jan-6 Jan-7 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 HK dev elopers index (LHS) China dev elopers index (RHS) Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC 3
4 Hong Kong core profit book value per share 8, (HKDm) 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, (HKD) 7 6 4 3 2 1 Asia-Pacific Equity Research July 212 27 28 29 21 211 212e 213e 214e Core profits Book v alue per share Source: Company data, HSBC China core profit book value per share 8, 7, 6,, 4, 3, 2, 1, (HKDm) (HKD) 27 28 29 21 211 212e 213e 214e Core profits Book v alue per share 12 1 8 6 4 2 Source: Company data, HSBC
July 212 Sector description Developers purchase the land, determine the design and marketing of a property, obtain the necessary approvals and financing, organise construction and then lease, manage or sell the finished product. Developers work with many different counterparts during each step of this process, including architects, city planners, engineers, surveyors, inspectors, contractors and real estate agents. The sector comprises both commercial and residential real estate. Residential property covers apartments, villas, townhouses and condominiums, while commercial property is mainly used for business purposes such as office buildings, shopping malls, industrial parks and hotels. Derek Kwong* Head of Real Estate Equity Research, Asia The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +82 2996 6629 derekkwong@hsbc.com.hk *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Key themes The bellwether stocks are all listed in Hong Kong. The sector has been flat relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan (.3x) in the last decade and has been the worst performing sub-sector within the financials sector. In addition to supply/demand dynamics, macro factors such as consumer confidence, the economic outlook, the level of unemployment and interest rates are the key drivers of residential property prices. Property often witnesses large swings in performance, especially when interest rate expectations change (e.g. 27 and 29). Sector drivers Hong Kong developers The developers revenue model is to acquire land at low cost and sell flats at higher prices. For Hong Kong developers, more than % of their costs come from land, while interest and construction typically account for roughly 2-4%. In order to increase their profit margin, some developers (e.g. Henderson Land) avoid bidding for land at market price, and opt instead to accumulate agricultural land for conversion to residential use. With a normal development cycle of 36-48 months, developers pre-sell properties 12-24 months ahead of completion to finance the outstanding construction cost. Hence, developers with execution ability, prudent cash flow management and strong land bank pipelines generate stable revenue. In addition to residential project sales, most developers generate a high portion of revenue coming from investment properties. Hence, a healthy commercial leasing market is also a key driver. Landlords Landlords revenue is relatively stable, as rental levels and lease tenure are governed by lease agreements. Upon expiry (usually 36 months for office rentals), the landlord and tenant can renew the lease at prevailing market rents. If the new lease commands a higher rent (positive reversion), the landlord s revenue increases (and vice versa). Landlords generally prefer to have leases which expire over a wide time spread to avoid a spike in expiries during market downturns. The occupancy of office space is supported by economic growth, especially for Central Grade A offices, which are highly sought after by financial institutions and corresponding service providers. China developers In China, the focus is on residential property development in different cities as recurring income from investment properties is immaterial. A key gauge of execution is the developers monthly contracted sales. Another metrics closely scrutinised by the market is the cash collection ratio, given that mortgage
July 212 drawdowns from banks have remained slow for most of 211. These two metrics are of great importance as cash from pre-sales make up 7% of developers source of funding. Other key drivers for China developers include balance sheet strength, given the capital intensive nature of the business, and execution with respect to gross floor area (GFA) completion which affects developers earnings profile. Key segments China Rapid urbanisation and rising incomes have led to a strong increase in demand (and supply) of real estate across China, pushing transaction volume to a new high in 211 despite the government s tight grip on the administrative policy front. Our view remains that these administrative measures such as the Home Purchase Restriction will stay in place, given that the central government appears to have successfully engineered a soft landing in the property market by curbing speculative demand. In the current environment, market consolidation will continue to be a key theme in 212 as home buyers stick with quality properties constructed by well-known developers. With credit (both onshore and offshore) remaining tight and contracted sales being a key source of funding, developers will continue to adopt a flexible pricing strategy for prudent cash flow management. Against this backdrop, we prefer developers with a cost of capital advantage and strong execution, measured by metrics such as project sell-through rate, contracted sales and cash collection. Hong Kong In Hong Kong, property companies have benefited from rising asset prices across all three asset classes residential, office and retail since 29. Key drivers of residential prices in Hong Kong are unemployment and interest rates. With both being low, these have provided fundamental support for residential prices since 29. The Hong Kong housing market also enjoys low supply of 13,-1, units per year over 212-13 (according to government estimates), compared with the historical average of 18, units since 2. As for the commercial sector, general business activity is an important factor. With many multinational firms increasing their focus on growth opportunities in Asia, this should help support demand. Meanwhile, office vacancy has remained tighter than historical average (since 199) while upcoming office supply over 212-14 is expected to come in below the historical average (according to Jones Lang LaSalle), suggesting favourable supply conditions for office rental. Singapore Asset inflation is an issue in Singapore too. Various measures have been introduced to keep a check on residential real estate prices and discourage speculation. These include a range of administrative measures such as additional stamp duties upon purchase and sales of properties (for properties sold within four years from time of purchase) as well as minimum loan-to-value ratios and stringent mortgage eligibility criteria, especially on multiple property purchases. While residential transaction volumes in Singapore may cool off, large Singapore-based developers have strong balance sheets and have diversified their exposure by geography as well as asset type. Hence, they are in a good position to weather any near-term policy driven slowdown in residential sales. 6
July 212 Valuation Net asset value (NAV) is the most commonly used valuation yardstick for property developers and landlords. In deriving NAV, we employ a DCF approach for development properties and an income capitalisation approach for investment properties. The valuation premium or discount to NAV reflects investors expectations on price/rental trends, sales volume, as well as general market outlook. To a large extent, property companies trading discount/premium is highly dependent on their track record on execution and the quality of the management team. For Hong Kong developers and landlords, NAV discounts average 13.1% and 2.8% since 2, respectively. China developers tend to trade at deeper discounts 19.9% on average since 2 due to higher earnings volatility as well as industry specific risks. 7
July 212 Sector snapshot Key sector stats Sector: Property 6% of MSCI Asia ex-jp Trading data ADTV (USDm) 23 Aggregated market cap (USDm) 13,39 Performance since 1 Jan 2 Absolute 8% Relative to MSCI Asia.24x 3 largest stocks Cheung Kong, SHKP, The Link Correlations (-year) with MSCI Asia.9 Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC Top 1 stocks Stock rank Stocks Index weight 1 CHEUNG KONG HOLDINGS 1.8% 2 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES 1.% 3 LINK RL.EST.INV.TST..% 4 HANG LUNG PROPERTIES.3% WHARF HOLDINGS.3% 6 CHINA OS.LD.& INV..2% 7 SWIRE PACIFIC A.% 8 CAPITALAND 3.6% 9 HANG LUNG GROUP 3.2% 1 HENDERSON LD.DEV. 3.2% Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Country breakdown Country Weights (%) Hong Kong 9.2 China 2.3 Singapore 14.4 Philippines 2.8 India 1.2 Taiwan 1.2 Malaysia.8 Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC Core industry driver: HK residential price trend 12 1 8 6 4 2 94 9 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 Source: Centaline, HSBC HK PE band chart 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 92 9 97 3 8 11 Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates HK PB vs ROE 6 (x ) (%) 3 2 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 P/B (LHS) ROE (RHS) Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates 8
July 212 Core industry driver: China residential price trend RMB/sqm 8, 6, 4, 2, 1998 21 24 27 21 Year Source: NDRC, CEIC, HSBC China PE band chart 6 4 3 2 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates China PB vs ROE (x ) (%) 2 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 97 99 1 3 7 9 11 P/B (LHS) ROE (RHS) Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates 9