ESPON 2013 Internal Seminar Territorial Evidence for Cohesion Policy 2014-2020 and Territorial Agenda 2020 4-5 December 2013 -Vilnius, Lithuania Impacts of the economic crisis on migration in Europe A.P. Russo (URV)
STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION Description of main migration patterns before and after the global financial crisis Discussion of drivers and barriers to workforce mobility The territorial effects of migration Perspectives for the future Challenges for EU territorial policy 2
Net Migration rates All age groups, ESPON space, yearly av. 2001-07 GLOBAL SHIFT OF POPULATION FROM EAST/NORTH TO SOUTH/WEST A wider attraction area in the Western Mediterranean Some MEGAs among the strongest attractors, as well as second tier metro regions Most other major urban regions in the EU core show a moderate attraction capacity Moderate to severe population loss in remote regions Relative population growth in more densely populated regions within national systems 3
MIGRATION BY AGE GROUPS 2001-2007 Three cohorts of populations hinting at different motivations for mobility and territorial effects: Mid-career migrants (25 to 49 y.o.) Economic, quality of place-related drivers central Core regions, (some) metro areas, the Western Mediterranean favoured Pre-employment migrants (16 to 24 y.o.) Opportunity-driven, social capital, short transits National capital, second tier and university cities, leisurely places favoured Late career, pre-retirement migrants (50 to 64 y.o.) Quality of life and environmental amenities as main drivers Intermediate and rural regions close to large cities, warm and cheap regions favoured 4
POST-CRISIS MIGRATION PATTERS General slow-down of migration trends Change in migratory balances in some countries Some in-migration countries (e.g. Western Med Arc) in 2001-07 have become net exporters of migration in 2008-10 Strongest welfare countries in Western Europe have strengthened their inmigration profiles Regional divergence accentuated? Return migration Harshening of out-migration in some countries (e.g. Baltic Sea Region) Gender and age groups unbalances deepened 8
Migration profiles, 2007-2013 9
10
DRIVERS AND TERRITORIAL EFFECTS OF MIGRATION Drivers of migration: (comparative) economic situations, but also... Different forms of territorial capital explain 60% of the overall variation in net migration scoresz Pure economic drivers are likely to have gone back to be the most relevant in the post-crisis period Boosters / barriers to mobility in the policy black box The territorial effects of mobility Regions with low GDP / high employment / poor territorial capital endowments have been source of migration in 2001-07; however this has not dampened economic activity in 2008-11 Highly attractive regions had a more torrid downturn in subsequent years 11
TRENDS Persisting shift of population PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE from NE to SW from rural to urban areas From the periphery to the core CHALLENGES Brain drain Pressure on metropolitan areas Ageing and gender disequilibria in rural regions 12
PERSPECTIVES FOR THE FUTURE (CONT) POLICY LEVERS Locally, may enhance attractiveness in one region (with external effects on competing regions and sending regions) At EU level, may alter the distribution of migration drivers to steer migration trends towards desired objectives MOBILITY DRIVERS Economic Territorial Antropic Social Etc. MIGRATION TRENDS Regions affected unevenly by migration flows and other mobilities FEEDBACK EFFECTS Population movements in and out of regions change regional characteristics driving migration 13
INTEGRATING MIGRATIONS IN THE EU TERRITORIAL STRATEGY Migration policies as place-based, no one size fits all but Regions that become specialist in one form of mobility less resilient to external shocks Consistency and coherence of regional / local efforts? Positive effects of human mobility are registered not only in destinations but also in origin regions partnerships between regions? Non work-related mobility can (also) produce positive externalities in attractive regions (some forms of) tourism as a lever of convergence? What role for the EU? Migrations matter for smart, inclusive, sustainable development. but also for territorial cohesion objectives! 14