Outbound Canada Travel Trends & Trip Intentions Jennifer Hendry Senior Research Associate Canadian Tourism Research Institute
Topics Economic trends and the exchange rate Canada s aging population Outbound travel performance Historical and YTD Winter travel intentions Short-term outlook for sun destinations Caribbean, Mexico, USA
Economic Outlook and the Outbound Travel Market
Canada s Real GDP Growth 3.4% 3.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.2% 1.3% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f -2.7% Source: The Conference Board of Canada
Provincial Real GDP Growth, 2015 3.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 1.3% -0.2% -1.1% -1.2% NL PEI NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Canadian Population Growth, 2015-2019 Atlantic 1.2% QC 3.4% ON 3.8% MB 5.0% SK 6.1% AB 7.5% BC 5.1% North 4.9% Canada 4.2% Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
Diversity of Canada s Population 2006 2031 % change (absolute) Population (000s) 32,522 42,078 29.4% Visible minority (000s) 5,285 12,855 143.2% Rest of the population (000s) 27,237 29,222 7.3% Source: Statistics Canada, Catalogue number 91-551-X Distribution of the foreign-born population by continent of birth Americas 66.7% 62.2% 54.3% 46.9% 42.0% 36.8% 31.9% 28.1% 25.0% 22.5% 20.5% Europe Asia 14.1% 18.4% 24.6% 31.4% 36.5% 40.9% 45.2% 48.6% 51.3% 53.6% 55.4% Africa Oceania 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 Source: Statistics Canada, Projections of the Diversity of the Canadian Population, 2006 to 2031
Canada s Population is Aging The share of Canada s population aged 55+ is increasing dramatically. Between 2015 and 2019, the proportion of Canadians aged 55-64 will increase 8%, while the share of people aged 65 and older will increase 15%. In Ontario, the proportion of residents aged 55-64 will increase 11% The proportion of people aged 65+ will increase significantly in both ON (+15%) and QC (14%) % change in population (2019 vs 2015) Canada ON QC under 15 5.0% 2.6% 6.4% 15-24 -4.5% -4.4% -8.0% 25-34 4.2% 5.9% 3.1% 35-44 5.8% 3.0% 7.1% 45-54 -6.2% -6.7% -8.3% 55-64 8.4% 10.9% 5.5% 65+ 15.0% 14.8% 13.6% Source: October 2015, CBoC forecast.
More Seniors than Children - First Time in History! population <15 population aged 65+ 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC
Exchange Rates & Household Spending Household consumption is expected to remain stable Real disposable income will average 1.9% annual growth Loonie lost 20% of its value from 2013-2015 Economic Indicators (2015-2017) 2015f 2016f 2017f Real GDP (% change) 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% Real Disposable Income (% change) 2.5% 1.3% 2.0% Household Consumption (% change) 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% CAD/USD (annual average) $0.78 $0.75 $0.79 EUR/CAD (annual average) $1.42 $1.42 $1.35 GBP/CAD (annual average) $1.94 $1.96 $1.86 Conference Board of Canada (September 2015 Outlook), Oxford Economics World Outlook.
13,580 13,750 15,420 16,489 17,849 19,741 21,580 21,296 23,376 24,674 26,396 26,872 27,279 26,919 Canada: Total Outbound Leisure Trips ( 000 of outbound leisure trips, all destinations) Global Recession 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC
Annual Leisure Visits to the Caribbean and Mexico Between 2006 and 2014, leisure visits to Mexico grew 10% and leisure visits to the Caribbean grew 6%. 1,022 1,100 1,314 1,407 1,414 1,453 1,511 707 858 1,469 1,650 2,079 2,296 2,329 2,390 2,487 2,334 2,350 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p Caribbean (000s) Mexico (000s) Source: Statistics Canada, CBoC
2015 Sun Destination Performance (% change, Jan-August 2015 versus 2014) Anguilla Antigua Aruba Bahamas Barbados Belize Bermuda Cayman Islands Costa Rica Cuba Curacao Dominican Republic Grenada Guatemala Jamaica Mexico Panama Puerto Rico St. Kitts/Nevis St. Lucia St. Maarten St. Vincent -17% -11% -11% -11% -7% -6% -1% -1% 2% 3% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 7% 9% 13% 13% 16% Source: Country tourism departments and government agencies.
Winter Travel Intentions
Winter Travel Intentions Overall, trip intentions this winter are lower than last year Two-thirds intend to spend their longest overnight trip outside the country Smaller share plan to travel to Mexico and the Caribbean 62% 65% 67% 61% 77% 65% 67% 69% 65% 65% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 41% 41% 38% 41% 34% Total Trip Intentions Outbound Trip Caribbean/Mexico Source: CBoC Annual winter travel intentions survey
Winter Travel Intentions Still a lot of uncertainty; 8% of those planning an outbound trip this winter have not selected a destination, and 6% of those who have selected the Caribbean have not yet determined where they will go Demographics keeping intentions from dropping off more drastically; 36% of those planning a winter trip are 55+ Lower intentions from largest MX/CARIB market (35-54 yrs) who account for close to half of travel to the region MX, Cuba, DR will see some growth High prices/low dollar will affect other destinations, but higher income travellers are less price sensitive 35% of travellers planning a trip south have a household income of at least $95k One-third of all overseas travellers who are still in the dreaming or investigative phases of their trip planning intend to travel to MX/CARIB
Travel Outlook: Caribbean Destinations
Caribbean and Mexico, Direct Seat Capacity Since 2011, direct seat capacity on scheduled carriers has grown at an average annual rate of 22% 2015p 3,322,916 1,729,825 2014 3,012,053 1,608,853 2013 2,680,454 1,386,760 2012 2,111,616 1,348,941 Caribbean 2011 1,367,196 905,628 Mexico Source: OAG
Canadian Visits to Mexico & the Caribbean (thousands of overnight visits each year) 1,414 1,453 1,511 1,562 1,619 1,690 1,760 1,850 2,487 2,334 2,350 2,405 2,489 2,590 2,650 2,750 2012 2013 2014p 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Caribbean (000s) Mexico (000s) Source: Government of Mexico, Statistics Canada, CBoC
Canadian Visits to Cuba, 2008-2019 (000s) 818 914 945 1,002 1,072 1,106 1,175 1,235 1,292 1,356 1,428 1,507 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Source: CBoC forecast
Canadian Visits to the Dominican Republic (000s) 635 646 658 666 686 684 706 721 733 748 763 782 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f Source: CBoC forecast
Canadian Tourism Research Institute Outbound Canada Jennifer Hendry Senior Research Associate hendry@