Whole Life Cost Estimation of Future Unmanned Air Systems

Whole Life Cost Estimation of Future Unmanned Air Systems Graham Potter / Ben Zachariah Dstl Air & Weapons Systems Department DSTL/PUB45332

Contents Introduction to Dstl Costing aims and objectives Existing costing tool Benefits of SEER-H and Cost IQ Model comparisons Conclusions

Who are Dstl? Defence Science and Technology Laboratory We are part of the We are a trading fund 100% contract funded Mission: Create the winning edge for UK forces & Government, through the best use of science & technology Vision: Be the indispensable source of science & technology at the heart of defence

Dstl Products and Services Decision support Innovative capability and systems concepts Innovative technology exploitation Specialist science and technology services Provision of S&T staff Support to operations

Dstl Departments Capability Based Policy & Capability Studies Joint Systems Naval Systems Land Battlespace Systems Air & Weapon Systems Systems engineering and analysis Detection Sensors & CM Information Management Security Biomedical Physical Environmental Sciences Sciences Sciences Sciences Critical defence science and technology solutions

Why does Dstl perform cost modelling? Greater emphasis within MoD on Through Life Costing Increased budget constraints Fundamental part of SMART acquisition process Inform customer community for future investment decisions on manned / unmanned air systems (UAS) procurement

UAS Cost-Capability Trade Studies 1 Cost 2 3 4 Capability

The UAS Costing Problem

Current Costing Toolset Activity-Based Aircraft Costing & UtiliSation model Spreadsheet model Activity based Bespoke model for air systems Development, Production, AGE&IP and O&S costs

Top-Level Cost Components Typical % Values for Fast Jet WLC Analysis in UK 55% OPERATION AND SUPPORT 15% RDT&E Airframe Engineering Tooling Labour Materials Flight Test Engines Avionics Software 25% PRODUCTION Fleet Sizing Engineering Tooling Labour Quality Control Mat. & Equip. Engines Avionics 5% AGE&IP Aircraft Ground Equipment Initial Provisioning Maintenance Prediction Unscheduled Scheduled Flight Servicing Personnel Costs Aircrew Maintenance personnel Support personnel Allowances, training Contract Costs Mechanical Propulsion Avionics Other Consumables Sustaining Support MOB Operating Costs 0% DISPOSAL Concept Whole Life Cost Assessment Demonstration Manufacture In Service Disposal

ABACUS Pros and Cons Pros Specifically developed for aircraft costing Transparency of embedded cost algorithms Fully customisable Validated against historical / in-service air systems limited validation against UAS Able to apply uncertainty to both inputs and algorithms Produces 3 point estimates Contains classified algorithms not available in commercial tools Cons Work breakdown structure is fixed therefore difficult to compare with COTS tools User interface is complex and training is required - not easy to pick up and use Sensitivity analysis has to be performed manually with additional runs Intellectual property (IP) content makes the model difficult to share Limited scope for application to other non-air systems domains

SEER-H Benefits (1) SEER-H allows a common work breakdown structure with COTS tools for joint working with industry partners Impact of changes in work elements can be easily determined Setting of Reference Points helps identify cost drivers Simple to explore sensitivities Knowledge bases Use SMEs to build up knowledge on particular sub-systems Use this knowledge to create your own knowledge base which can be used pan-dstl for costing of similar systems User interface simple and easy to use Applicable to any domain - air, land, sea, space Galorath support structure available

SEER-H Benefits (2) Cost IQ provides a rapid method of producing work breakdown structures Based on near-neighbour existing systems Contains a useful amount of air systems for comparison Can create your own domains Can create a domain for future air systems Work breakdown structure can then be reused and shared to inform other studies However, limited visibility of air systems cost validation

Cost Analysis Undertaken Four alternative future UAS concepts costed Costs calculated using SEER-H and ABACUS Total Acquisition Costs provide reasonable agreement However, Production and Development Cost outputs differ Still evaluating the O&S aspect of SEER-H Problems were encountered with how SEER-H accounts for flying hours, fuel cost and spares Attempting to validate SEER-H costs against known costs for in service equipment Harrier GR9, Global Hawk, Reaper, Tornado GR4 being costed

SEER-H vs ABACUS Cost UAS Capability Class

Cost Analysis Undertaken Four alternative future UAS concepts costed Costs calculated using SEER-H and ABACUS Total Acquisition Costs provide reasonable agreement However, Production and Development Cost outputs differ Still evaluating the O&S aspect of SEER-H Problems were encountered with how SEER-H accounts for flying hours, fuel cost and spares Attempting to validate SEER-H costs against known costs for in service equipment Harrier GR9, Global Hawk, Reaper, Tornado GR4 being costed

Galorath Support Direct link to Cost IQ developers in the US Feedback on the functionality and user interface of Cost IQ Dstl staff included as Beta Testers of software Direct link to Galorath Training and Support Manager in UK On site visit by Training and Support Manager to discuss and resolve issues encountered Rapid responses to any issues that have arisen Including software use issues and software functionality issues

Conclusions Two models still in contention The assessment of both models is ongoing Support and training given by Galorath staff (in UK and US) has been excellent Confidence in any cost model is dependent on Verification & Validation Dstl need to be able to provide an independent audit trail

Questions?