Jobless Rates Increase over Month as Employment Falls Seasonally January 24 th, 2013 Seasonal payroll job and employmentt reductions across most industries locally pushedd jobless rates higher over the month in December. Rate movements were not unusual for a typical December andd unemployment remained below December 2011 levels. In addition, according to preliminary annual averages for 2012, regional metro area jobless rates fell in 2012 and payrolll jobs advanced compared to 2011 annual averages. Area Labor Force, Employment Down over Month, Mixed overr Year labor force levels held mostly steady in regional MSAs and edged upward slightly across the region s non metro counties. Employment levels dropped, however, with the vast majority of those who lost jobs falling into thee ranks of unemployed (as opposed to withdrawing from the laborr market), resulting in little change overall in areaa workforce totals. In the Ann Arbor metro area, labor force dipped by 0.2 percent monthly while employment droppedd by 1..1 percent. Correspondin ng changes in the Lansing MSA were similar, with the labor force level remaining largelyy unchanged and employment also dropping 1.1 percent over the month. Since December 2011, slight gains occurred in labor force and employment in the Ann Arbor MSA but over the year reductions were recorded in the Lansing metro area. Preliminary annual averagee data for 2011 and 2012 paint a moree consistent picture of annual change in these metro areas, however. Labor force levels rose 1..9 percent and 0.3 percent during 2012 in Ann Arbor and Lansing, respectively. Employment increases registered 3.1 percent in Ann Arbor and 1.66 percent in the Lansing metro area between 2011 and 2012. Jobless Rates Fall Seasonally over Month, Remain Down over Year Seasonal monthly declines in jobless rates halted in December,, as job losses across most industry sectors pushedd rates higher over the month. The Ann Arbor MSA jobless rate rose to 5.1 percent and the Lansing metro area ratee climbed to 6.7 percent seasonally, with increases of 0.8 and 1.11 percentagee points, respectively. Despite thesee upswings, local unemployment rates remained lower compared to much of the rest of the state (see Table 4, Page 5 for details). Jobless rates stayed below December 2011 levels across most of the region. Additionally, preliminary annual average jobless rates, which reduce seasonal impacts of the monthly unadjusted data, indicate that 2012 unemployment rates were improved compared to 2011 overall for all regional counties and metro areas. jobless rates were alsoo lower than 2009 and 2010 and were similar compared to pre recessionary levels (see Chart 1, Page 4 for details). Table 1: Local Area Unemployment Statistics by Place of Residence/Not Seasonally Adjusted AREA Dec 12 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE Nov 12 Dec 11 Ann Arbor MSA Lansing MSA Clare Co. Gratiot Co. Isabella Co. Lenawee Co. Livingston Co. Michigan* U.S.* 183,300 233,900 11,975 18,775 36,700 43,525 87,825 4,629 154,953 183,7000 233,8000 11,750 18,5255 36,6000 43,325 87,5255 4,610 155,779 181,200 235,500 11,975 18,575 36,275 43,600 87,950 4,617 153,683 *Dataa expressed in thousands Michigan Department of Technology,, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Area Labor Market Analysis An n Arbor, Lansing, Mid Michigan: December 2012 Mo onthly 400 2,100 100 1,600 225 0 250 200 100 425 200 75 300 125 19 12 826 2,096 EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (%) Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11 Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11 173,900 175,800 171,4000 1,900 2,,500 5.1 4.3 5.4 218,200 220,700 218,9000 2,500 700 6.7 5.6 7.0 10,600 10,625 10,5500 25 50 11.5 9.6 12.0 17,125 17,200 16,875 75 250 8.7 7.2 9.2 34,425 34,700 33,925 275 500 6.2 5.2 6.5 39,800 40,250 39,5755 450 225 8.6 7.1 9.3 80,325 80,825 80,9000 500 575 8.5 7.6 8.0 4,217 4,245 4,2044 28 13 8.9 7.9 9.0 143,549 144,039 141,0700 490 2,,479 7.4 7.5 8.2 2110 S. Cedar St. Lansing Michigan 48910
2 Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Decline in December Seasonal Job Losses Visible Across a Number of Sectors Ann Arbor Metropolitan Statistical Area Total nonfarm jobs fell in the Ann Arbor metro area in December, decreasing by 1.2 percent over the month. Almost half of the job losses were the result of end of semester temporary layoffs in state and local education, though several other sectors posted losses as well. Washtenaw County gained 1,800 jobs since December 2011, and total jobs were up by a larger amount from 2011 to 2012 overall. Preliminary annual average data placed annual job gains locally at 3,600 in the past year. Five out of the ten major broad industry sectors posted job declines in December, led by a drop of 1,100 jobs in the government sector. The total government drop was larger in magnitude than is typically seen in December following a larger than average increase posted in November 2012. Professional and business services, a sector that provides some support jobs to public education, also fell over the month by 3.6 percent. The area construction sector and leisure and hospitality industry each fell by 200 jobs in December, losses that were mostly typical and a result of market activity slowdown in these sectors due to changing weather conditions. Private education and healthcare also ticked downward by 100 over the month, while retail trade added 100 seasonal jobs due to holiday related hiring. Four sectors remained unchanged in December. Total payroll jobs were 1,800 higher compared to December 2011, largely due to gains in government, professional and business services and private education and health services. Goods producing jobs were down 1.1 percent overall during this time. average data for 2012 indicates that total jobs advanced overall for the year, with the area gaining 3,600 jobs between 2011 and 2012. Total private jobs were also on the rebound in 2012 (see Chart 2, Page 4). Lansing East Lansing Metropolitan Statistical Area Payroll jobs dropped by 2,500 in the Lansing metro area over the month, representing a 1.1 percent loss in December. The bulk of job reductions came in state government education, which fell by 1,300 monthly due to standard seasonal factors, though other sectors posted declines as well. Jobs were 2,200 below December 2011 levels, but preliminary annual average data indicates that total payroll jobs were mostly stable between 2011 and 2012 overall. Government job losses registered 1,300 in December, due almost exclusively to temporary support staff reductions in state government education. Private education and health services, however, was flat over the month while professional and business services followed the public sector trend and contracted by 1.9 percent. Seasonal hiring in the area s retail sector tapered off in December, failing to pick up any additional holiday related jobs over the month. Area goods producers fell seasonally as well, with construction employers cutting staff by 600 over the month and manufacturing falling by 300 during this period. Leisure and hospitality also ticked downward seasonally in December. Jobs in the area were 1.0 percent lower than December 2011, with most sectors posting declines during that period of time. However, preliminary annual average data, which effectively reduces the impact of non seasonally adjusted monthly fluctuations, showed that the Lansing MSA was essentially stable over the past year. Total nonfarm jobs registered 218,000 in 2012 overall, up slightly from 217,700 in 2011. Large notable sectors that were unchanged annually included government, manufacturing and retail trade. Construction remained 700 lower on an annual basis while private education and health services grew by 400 jobs to slightly offset this loss. Total private jobs continued to bounce back from a recent low in 2009 as well (see Chart 2, Page 4).
3 Tables 2 and 3: Local Nonfarm Payroll Job Estimates by Place of Employment/Not Seasonally Adjusted ANN ARBOR MSA: Washtenaw County Industry Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11 Total Nonfarm 206,000 208,500 204,200 2,500 1.2% 1,800 0.9% Goods Producing 17,500 17,700 17,700 200 1.1% 200 1.1% Natural Resource & Construction 3,000 3,200 3,100 200 6.3% 100 3.2% Manufacturing 14,500 14,500 14,600 0 0.0% 100 0.7% Service Providing 188,500 190,800 186,500 2,300 1.2% 2,000 1.1% Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 26,000 25,900 26,100 100 0.4% 100 0.4% Information 4,100 4,100 4,100 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Financial Activities 6,400 6,400 6,500 0 0.0% 100 1.5% Professional & Business Services 27,000 28,000 26,500 1,000 3.6% 500 1.9% Educational & Health Services 25,800 25,900 25,600 100 0.4% 200 0.8% Leisure & Hospitality 13,600 13,800 13,700 200 1.4% 100 0.7% Other Services 6,900 6,900 6,900 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Government (includes Public Ed./Health) 78,700 79,800 77,100 1,100 1.4% 1,600 2.1% LANSING EAST LANSING MSA: Clinton, Eaton, and Ingham Counties Industry Dec 12 Nov 12 Dec 11 Total Nonfarm 218,800 221,300 221,000 2,500 1.1% 2,200 1.0% Goods Producing 22,100 23,000 23,000 900 3.9% 900 3.9% Natural Resource & Construction 4,300 4,900 4,600 600 12.2% 300 6.5% Manufacturing 17,800 18,100 18,400 300 1.7% 600 3.3% Service Providing 196,700 198,300 198,000 1,600 0.8% 1,300 0.7% Trade, Transportation, & Utilities 34,400 34,100 34,400 300 0.9% 0 0.0% Information 2,800 2,800 2,800 0 0.0% 0 0.0% Financial Activities 13,600 13,500 13,600 100 0.7% 0 0.0% Professional & Business Services 21,200 21,600 21,500 400 1.9% 300 1.4% Educational & Health Services 32,900 32,900 32,500 0 0.0% 400 1.2% Leisure & Hospitality 16,100 16,400 16,800 300 1.8% 700 4.2% Other Services 11,200 11,200 11,100 0 0.0% 100 0.9% Government (includes Public Ed./Health) 64,500 65,800 65,300 1,300 2.0% 800 1.2% Production of Payroll Jobs by Industry Sector: The U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), will continue to work with states in the production of monthly estimates of payroll jobs by industry for states and metro areas, through the Current Employment Statistics program. However, to generate cost savings, BLS has centralized the monthly estimation function though state staff will provide BLS with information on local hiring and layoff events. BLS indicates that while these changes will reduce the potential for statistical bias in state and metropolitan area estimates, they may increase the month to month variability of the estimates. More detailed information on these changes is available at http://www.bls.gov/sae/cesprocs.htm.
4 Chart 1: Jobless Rates since 2007, Regional Metro Areas Chart 2: Average Private Job Totals since 2002, Regional Metro Areas For further information, please contact Mark Reffitt, Regional Economic Analyst for the Michigan Department of o Technology, Management & Budget, Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, at (517) 492 5550 or you may also visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmi or the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics at www.bls.gov. 2110 S. Cedar St. Lansing Michigan 48910
5 Table 4: Michigan County Jobless Rates, December 2012 (Regional Counties Highlighted) 1 Washtenaw County 5.1 43 Mason County 9.6 2 Clinton County 5.9 44 Alpena County 9.6 3 Eaton County 6.2 45 Tuscola County 9.8 4 Kent County 6.2 46 Macomb County 9.9 5 Isabella County 6.2 47 Kalkaska County 9.9 6 Barry County 6.3 48 Sanilac County 10.1 7 Ottawa County 6.3 49 Osceola County 10.4 8 Kalamazoo County 6.6 50 Montcalm County 10.4 9 Midland County 6.7 51 Ogemaw County 10.5 10 Allegan County 6.9 52 Crawford County 10.5 11 Menominee County 6.9 53 Manistee County 10.6 12 Ingham County 7.1 54 Benzie County 10.7 13 Calhoun County 7.1 55 Missaukee County 10.8 14 Marquette County 7.3 56 Chippewa County 11.1 15 Dickinson County 7.5 57 Otsego County 11.1 16 St. Joseph County 7.6 58 Alger County 11.3 17 Monroe County 7.6 59 Iosco County 11.4 18 Ionia County 7.6 60 Wayne County 11.4 19 Leelanau County 8.0 61 Clare County 11.5 20 Grand Traverse County 8.0 62 Wexford County 11.6 21 Jackson County 8.1 63 Charlevoix County 11.6 22 Branch County 8.1 64 Oceana County 11.9 23 Cass County 8.1 65 Antrim County 11.9 24 Houghton County 8.3 66 Roscommon County 11.9 25 Bay County 8.3 67 St. Clair County 12.3 26 Saginaw County 8.4 68 Luce County 12.4 27 Huron County 8.5 69 Gladwin County 12.4 28 Newaygo County 8.5 70 Lake County 12.6 29 Livingston County 8.5 71 Emmet County 12.7 30 Oakland County 8.6 72 Schoolcraft County 12.7 31 Muskegon County 8.6 73 Arenac County 12.8 32 Lenawee County 8.6 74 Lapeer County 13.2 33 Gratiot County 8.7 75 Ontonagon County 13.4 34 Berrien County 8.8 76 Cheboygan County 13.7 35 Mecosta County 8.9 77 Alcona County 14.8 36 Genesee County 9.1 78 Oscoda County 15.5 37 Shiawassee County 9.1 79 Keweenaw County 15.9 38 Gogebic County 9.2 80 Presque Isle County 16.2 39 Iron County 9.3 81 Montmorency County 16.5 40 Hillsdale County 9.4 82 Mackinac County 17.9 41 Delta County 9.5 83 Baraga County 18.3 42 Van Buren County 9.5