Key Findings (preliminary): Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2014-2018 Report
Please Note The findings presented here are preliminary and as delivered at the ASEAN Tourism Forum, January 2014. Final checks and balances for more than 30 destinations within the Asia Pacific region are currently underway and will be posted on PATAmPOWER before the end of the first quarter.
About the Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2014-2018 Produced for PATA by the Tourism Forecasting Unit of The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Objectives: Provide interval forecasts of quarterly and annual visitor arrivals to 32 destinations in Asia Pacific Provide annual interval forecasts of departures from key source markets Provide forecasts of tourism receipts for 25 destinations in Asia Pacific Provide tourism demand (income and price) elasticity estimates for destination policy-makers
Key Findings: Visitor arrivals to the Asia Pacific region will continue to grow at an average annual growth rate of 6.2% over the period 2014-2018 reaching 660 million by 2018. Northeast Asia will maintain its dominant position in the collective inbound market of Asia Pacific, however its market share will decrease from 51% in 2012 to 48% by 2018 due to the expansion of Southeast Asia. China will continue to be the top inbound destination in Asia Pacific, peaking at 146 million visitors annually by the end of 2018. Hong Kong SAR will surpass the USA to be the second largest inbound destination in Asia Pacific in 2017.
Asia Pacific Visitor Arrivals 2008-2018 700 650 600 550 500 9.8% 5.3% 5.0% 6.6% 660 615 579 7.3% 547 519 6.3% 5.8% 5.4% 5.4% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 450 2% 400 0% 350 300-2.4% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Arrivals to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) -2% -4%
Market Shares (%) of Five Regions in Asia Pacific Visitor Arrivals 2012-2018 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Americas Northeast Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Pacific
Top Five Fastest Growth Destinations 2014-2018 (%) AAGR 2014-2018 AAGR 2008-2012 Rank 2008-2012 AAGR 2008-2018 Rank 2008-2018 Thailand 27.5% 11.2% 11 18.5% 2 Myanmar 17.7% 32.4% 1 25.5% 1 Cambodia 13.2% 15.7% 5 15.1% 4 Bhutan 12.9% 12.3% 9 11.7% 7 Lao PDR 11.6% 17.7% 3 15.3% 3 Note: AAGR refers to the average annual growth rate, expressed as a percentage (%).
Top Destination China continues to be the most visited destination in Asia Pacific over the forecast period. 150 145 140 135 130 130 126 134 135 132 136 139 141 143 144 146 125 120 115 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Forecasts of Annual Visitor Arrivals to China 2014-2018, by volume (mns)
Top Destination Hong Kong SAR is predicted to surpass the USA to become the 2 nd most visited destination in Asia Pacific from 2017. 100 80 Arrivals to Hong Kong SAR Arrivals to the USA 60 40 20 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 International visitor arrivals to the USA and Hong Kong SAR 2008-2018 (in millions)
Departure forecasts from select origin markets
China Annual Forecasts of Departures 2014-2018 195 180 181.6 25% 165 151.0 20% 150 135 127.9 15% 120 105 90 75 68.9 82.2 94.8 109.6 10% 5% 60 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 China Outbound to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) 0%
Persons ('000) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 Persons ('000) 0 20000 40000 60000 Top Two Destinations of China Outbound Travel, 2018 o Upper Baseline Lower o Upper Baseline Lower 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Time Departures Forecasts from China to Hong Kong SAR 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Time Departures Forecasts from China to Thailand
India Annual Forecasts of Departures 2014-2018 8.0 7.5 7.2 7.5 7.9 9% 8% 7.0 6.8 7% 6.5 6% 6.1 6.5 6.0 5.7 5% 5.5 4% 5.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 India Outbound to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) 3%
Persons ('000) 0 500 1000 1500 Persons ('000) 0 500 1000 1500 Top Two Destinations of Indian Outbound Travel, 2018 o Upper Baseline Lower o Upper Baseline Lower 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Time 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Time Departures Forecasts from India to Thailand Departures Forecasts from India to Singapore
Russian Federation Annual Forecasts of Departures 2014-2018 16 15.0 27% 25% 14 23% 12 12.3 21% 10.4 19% 10 8.8 17% 15% 8 7.4 13% 6 4.8 6.1 11% 9% 4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Russian Outbound to Asia Pacific Annual Growth Rate (%) 7%
Persons ('000) 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 Persons ('000) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 Top Two Destinations of Russian Outbound Travel, 2018 o Upper Baseline Lower o Upper Baseline Lower 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Time 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Time Departures Forecasts from Russian Federation to Thailand Departures Forecasts from Russian Federation to China
Tourist Receipts Tourist Receipts of the Top Six Destinations 2012-2018 (US$ billion) Receipts 2012 Rank Receipts 2015 Rank Receipts 2018 USA 163.2 1 184.8 1 208.1 2 Rank China 50.0 2 64.8 3 77.5 3 Macau SAR 43.7 3 109.5 2 269.9 1 Australia 31.5 4 41.5 5 53.7 5 Hong Kong SAR 31.2 5 42.0 4 46.6 6 Thailand 30.1 6 40.9 6 55.5 4
Highlights for Southeast Asia destinations: Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Note: Brunei is not included as the time-series data are still too short to produce reliable forecasts
International Visitor Arrivals to Southeast Asia, 2012-2018 200 Total Arrivals to Southeast Asia 17% Annual Growth Rate (%) 173 170 15% 140 128 147 13% 110 105 115 11% 97 9% 80 88 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7%
International Visitor Arrivals to Cambodia, 2012-2018 9 8 7 6.5 7.4 8.2 25% 20% 6 5.0 5.7 5 4.3 15% 4 3.6 3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Arrivals to Cambodia Annual Growth Rate (%) 10% Note: Includes same-day visitors
International Visitor Arrivals to Indonesia, 2012-2018 12 7% 11 10.7 6% 10 9 8.7 9.1 9.6 10.0 5% 8 7.9 8.3 4% 7 3% 6 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Arrivals to Indonesia Annual Growth Rate (%) 2%
International Visitor Arrivals to Lao PDR, 2012-2018 8 7 6 5.3 5.9 6.6 7.2 25% 20% 5 4.6 15% 4 3 3.3 3.9 10% 2 5% 1 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% Total Arrivals to Lao PDR Annual Growth Rate (%)
International Visitor Arrivals to Malaysia, 2012-2018 35 30 25 25.0 26.2 26.9 27.7 28.7 29.7 30.7 6% 5% 4% 20 3% 15 10 2% 5 1% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% Total Arrivals to Malaysia Annual Growth Rate (%)
International Visitor Arrivals to Myanmar, 2012-2018 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.9 60% 50% 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.4 40% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 30% 20% 0.4 0.2 10% 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% Total Arrivals to Myanmar Annual Growth Rate (%) Notes: data exclude excursionists at land borders but include arrivals by air/land/sea port at Yangon entry points and air arrivals at the international airports of Mandalay, Bagan & Naypyitaw
International Visitor Arrivals to the Philippines, 2012-2018 6 5 4 4.1 4.4 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.5 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 3 5% 2 4% 3% 1 2% 1% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Arrivals to Philippines Annual Growth Rate (%) 0%
International Visitor Arrivals to Singapore, 2012-2018 24 12% 20 16 14.5 15.6 16.1 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.7 10% 8% 12 6% 8 4% 4 2% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% Total Arrivals to Singapore Annual Growth Rate (%)
International Visitor Arrivals to Thailand, 2012-2018 90 80 79.6 40% 35% 70 60 50 40 30 20 22.3 26.5 30.1 36.0 44.9 58.5 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 10 5% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0% Total Arrivals to Thailand Annual Growth Rate (%)
International Visitor Arrivals to Vietnam, 2012-2018 12 14% 10 8 7.4 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.5 10.1 12% 10% 6.6 8% 6 6% 4 4% 2 2% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Arrivals to Vietnam Annual Growth Rate (%) 0%
Thank You Please return to this page regularly as updates will be posted as soon as they are finalised.