1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results



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Transcription:

1Q15 Consolidated Earnings Results Colombian Banking GAAP and IFRS June 2015

Disclaimer Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. ( Grupo Aval ) is an issuer of securities in Colombia and in the United States, registered with Colombia s National Registry of Shares and Issuers (Registro Nacional de Valores y Emisores) and the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. As such, it is subject to the control of the Superintendency of Finance and compliance with applicable U.S. securities regulation as a foreign private issuer under Rule 405 of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. Grupo Aval is a not a financial institution and is not supervised or regulated as a financial institution in Colombia. As an issuer of securities in Colombia, Grupo Aval is required to comply with periodic reporting requirements and corporate governance, however, it is not regulated as a financial institution or as a holding company of banking subsidiaries and, thus, is not required to comply with capital adequacy regulations applicable to banks and other financial institutions. All of our banking subsidiaries, Banco de Bogotá, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, Banco AV Villas, and their respective Colombian financial subsidiaries, including Porvenir and Corficolombiana, are subject to inspection and surveillance as financial institutions by the Superintendency of Finance. Although we are not a financial institution, until December 31, 2014 we prepared the unaudited consolidated financial information included in our quarterly reports in accordance with the regulations of the Superintendency of Finance for financial institutions and generally accepted accounting principles for banks to operate in Colombia, also known as Colombian Banking GAAP because we believe that presentation on that basis most appropriately reflected our activities as a holding company of a group of banks and other financial institutions. However, in 2009 the Colombian Congress enacted Law 1314 establishing the implementation of IFRS in Colombia. As a result, since January 1, 2015 financial entities and Colombian issuers of publicly traded securities such as Grupo Aval must prepare financial statements in accordance with IFRS. Colombian Banking GAAP and IFRS as applicable under Colombian regulations differ in certain significant respects from U.S. GAAP. IFRS as applicable under Colombian regulations also differs in certain aspects from IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Our 20-F annual report filed with the SEC provides a description of the principal differences between Colombian Banking GAAP and U.S. GAAP as well as expected changes from our implementation of IFRS as applicable under Colombian regulations. The unaudited consolidated financial information included in this webcast for the first quarter of 2015 is presented under Colombian Banking GAAP and, for comparative purposes, it is also presented in accordance with IFRS as currently issued by the IASB. Unaudited consolidated financial information for the first and fourth quarter of 2014 is presented under Colombian Banking GAAP. Details of the calculations of non-gaap measures such as ROAA and ROAE, among others, are explained when required in this report. As a result of our migration to IFRS and our first year of implementation of IFRS accounting principles, our interim unaudited consolidated financial information for 2015, and the comparative interim information for the respective periods of 2014, may be subject to further amendments. This report may include forward-looking statements, which actual results may vary from those stated herein as a consequence of changes in general, economic and business conditions, changes in interest and currency rates and other risks factors as evidenced in our Form 20-F available at the SEC webpage. Recipients of this document are responsible for the assessment and use of the information provided herein. Grupo Aval will not have any obligation to update the information herein and shall not be responsible for any decision taken by investors in connection with this document. The content of this document is not intended to provide full disclosure on Grupo Aval or its affiliates. When applicable, in this webcast we refer to billions as thousands of millions. 2

Highlights Grupo Aval financials for 1Q15 show the following general results: Strong loan portfolio growth (18.6% YoY and 5.1% QoQ) based on organic growth of our operations boosted by the depreciation of the Colombian Peso; Stable asset quality when compared to 4Q14 with NPLs at 1.8% in 1Q15 vs 1.9% in 4Q14 and 30 days PDLs at 2.6% in 4Q14 and 1Q15; Stable Net Interest Margin at 5.8% in 1Q15 in line with the LTM average; Normalization of the cost of risk improving to 1.5%; Improvement in the efficiency ratio on a cost to income basis (47.9% in 1Q15 from 52.9% in 4Q14 and 50.5% in 1Q14), and on an operational expenses to average total assets basis (3.4% for 1Q15 from 3.8% for 4Q14 and 3.7% for 1Q14); Impacted by the payment of dividends and wealth tax and due to the strong growth in total assets, our tangible equity ratio decreased by 100 pbs. from 9.8% in 4Q14 to 8.8% in 1Q15; ROAA for the quarter was 1.7% and ROAE for the quarter was 13.2%. 3

Highlights Other corporate matters to report Preliminary figures for 1Q2015 Balance Sheet and Income Statement under IFRS are included herein. The majority of the changes in the Balance Sheet reflect the elimination of the reappraisal of assets and the effects of consolidating Promigas. The positive recurrent impacts on the income statement reflect less loan provision expenses and operating expenses; Under full IFRS 1Q2015 results will include the wealth tax as an expense item in the income statement. Under Colombian regulation, it is possible to deduct this tax directly from Equity rather than expensing it in the income statement; The Colombian Peso showed yet again a strong depreciation during the period (31.9% vs. EoP March 31, 2014 and 8.6% vs. EoP December 31, 2014) which positively impacted the growth of our Central American operations when translated into Colombian Pesos but affected our capitalization ratios. In the following report, calculations of growth excluding the depreciation of the Colombian Peso use the exchange rate formed as of March 31, 2014 to translate our Central American operations for all periods. 4

($US Million) I II III IV Year I II III IV Year I II III IV Year I II III IV Year Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Haga clic para modificar l estilo de título del patrón Macroeconomic context - Colombia GDP Growth (%) 7.9 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.6 5.9 5.0 2.5 2.9 4.02.8 6.16.1 6.4 4.7 4.9 4.34.2 4.6 3.5 GDP Growth Expectations 5.20 4.70 4.20 3.70 3.20 120 100 80 60 40 2011 2012 2013P 2014Pr Colombian GDP World GDP Source: DANE and Bloomberg. GDP yearly % change Seasonally adjusted data at constant prices. (P) = Provisional (Pr) = Preliminary Unemployment (%) 12.5 11.5 10.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 11.6 11.1 Source: DANE. 10.9 9.8 10.0 9.6 Abr-15: 9.5% vs. Abr-14: 9.0% 9.2 9.2 8.4 8.7 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 June December 5 2015E 2016E WTI 3.30 3.45 Source: Bloomberg Consensus Foreign Investment 2,349 9,485 2,629 3,231 4,692 12,436 15,033 16,684 16,833 15,032 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Foreign Direct Investment Portfolio investments

Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Haga clic para modificar l estilo de título del patrón Macroeconomic context - Colombia Inflation (%) 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5 3.7 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.0 1.9 2.8 3.7 4.6 Inflation Expectations for YE15 and YE16 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 3.9 3.10 Source: DANE 12-month inflation Lower target range Upper target range Central Bank s Monetary Policy Source: Bloomberg Consensus 2015E 2016E Real GDP growth Inflation Colombian Central Bank's Interest Rate 6.6% 6.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 5% 5% 4% 4.1% DTF Colombian Central Bank's Interest Rate 4.6% 4.5% 2.0% 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Banrep and DANE 6 4% 3.3% 3% Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Source: Banrep. End of period DTF rate.

Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Haga clic para modificar l estilo de título del patrón Macroeconomic context - Colombia Colombian Peso vs WTI US$/barrel COP vs Emerging markets currencies 110 100 90 80 WTI (US$ - Lhs) COP Exchange Rate 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 150 140 130 120 Colombian Peso Mexican Peso Peruvian Nuevo Sol South African Rand Brazilian Real Chilean Peso Turkish Lira 70 60 50 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 110 100 40 1,700 90 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg. (100=Jun-30, 2014) Colombian Peso Exchange Rate 1Q15vs4Q14 1Q15vs1Q14 Average 2,006.93 2,173.01 2,470.16 13.7% 23.1% End of Period 1,969.45 2,392.46 2,598.36 8.6% 31.9% 7

Macroeconomic context Central America Real GDP CAGR 14-17E (%) Real GDP growth evolution (%) 8% US Central America 4.3% 6.4% 4.3% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 2.6% 6% 4% 6.2% 4.0% Central America Panama Nicaragua Costa Rica Guatemala Honduras El Salvador 2% 0% 2.7% 2.4% -2% -4% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IMF; Aggregate growth of all the Central American countries Source: IMF; Average growth of all the Central American countries Oil & gas imports / Total imports (%) 17.0% 20.5% 12.3% 16.6% 17.9% 21.2% 14.5% Central America Panama Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Source: SECMCA, Central Banks; Corresponds to 2013 since numbers for 2014 are not available. 8

Assets Figures in Ps. Trillions Total Assets 1Q15 / 1Q14: 18.5% 177.6 1Q15 / 4Q14: 6.7% Growth excl. depreciation of COP 189.5 1Q15 / 1Q14 = 10.6% 1Q15 / 4Q14 = 4.4% 159.9 Assets Breakdown 1Q14 % of total assets 4Q14 % of total assets 1Q15 % of total assets 21.2% 22.4% Foreign 22.3% 26.0% Foreign 22.8% 26.5% Foreign 18.3% 60.5% 77.6% Colombian operations 16.1% 61.6% 74.0% Colombian operations 16.5% 60.7% 73.5% Colombian operations Foreign operations reflect Central American operations. Loans and financial leases Investments Other 9

Loans Figures in Ps. Trillions Gross loans 1Q15 / 4Q14: 5.1% 1Q15 / 1Q14: 18.6% 99.9 112.8 118.5 Growth excl. depreciation of COP 1Q15 / 1Q14 = 11.2% 1Q15 / 4Q14 = 2.9% Gross loans Breakdown 1Q14 Microcredit Mortgages Financial leases Consumer 99.9 0.3% 7.0% 7.1% 28.3% 4Q14 112.8 0.3% 8.0% 6.6% 29.4% 1Q15 118.5 0.3% 8.3% 6.2% 29.3% 1Q15 / 1Q14 1.4% 41.9% 4.6% 22.5% Commercial 57.3% 55.7% 55.9% 15.6% 10

Loan portfolio quality 30 days PDLs / Total loans NPLs / Total loans 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% Loan provision expense, net / Average Loans Loan provision expense, net (net of recoveries of charged-off assets) / Average Loans 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.4% Charge offs / Average NPLs Allowances / NPLs Allowances / 30+ PDLs 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 1.68x 1.63x 1.69x 1.17x 1.17x 1.15x 11 Allowances / Total loans 3.2% 3.0% 3.0% NPL defined as microcredit loans more than 30 days past due, consumer, mortgage and financial leases more than 60 days past due and commercial loans more than 90 days past due.

Loan portfolio quality GRUPO AVAL Portfolio Composition Past Due Loans Non-performing Loans (2) 1Q15 Commercial 55.9% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% Consumer 29.3% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% Financial Leases 6.2% 3.2% 3.2% 4.0% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1% Mortgages 8.3% 4.0% 2.9% 2.7% 3.6% 2.6% 1.8% Microcredit 0.3% 10.3% 10.7% 10.7% 10.3% 10.6% 10.7% Total Loans 100.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% Asset Quality Evolution Ps. billions 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 Initial PDLs 1,828.3 2,141.0 2,069.2 2,173.0 2,305.0 2,717.6 2,616.0 2,794.1 2,914.9 New PDLs 510.5 160.9 351.3 384.1 646.4 257.6 517.3 493.6 515.8 Charge-offs -197.8-232.7-247.5-252.1-233.7-359.1-339.3-372.7-375.8 Final PDLs 2,141.0 2,069.2 2,173.0 2,305.0 2,717.6 2,616.0 2,794.1 2,914.9 3,054.9 Past Due Loans + 30 days / Total Loans. (2) NPL defined as microcredit loans more than 30 days past due, consumer, mortgage and financial leases more than 60 days past due and commercial loans more than 90 days past due. 12

Funding Figures in Ps. Trillions Total Funding Growth excl. depreciation of COP 1Q15 / 1Q14 = 10.0% 1Q15 / 4Q14 = 5.4% 1Q15/4Q14: 7.7% 1Q15/1Q14: 17.7% 134.0 146.4 157.7 Total Deposits Growth excl. depreciation of COP 1Q15 / 1Q14 = 9.8% 1Q15 / 4Q14 = 4.6% 1Q15/4Q14: 6.8% 1Q15 / 1Q14: 17.1% 104.3 114.4 122.1 Funding Composition Interbank Borrowings 4.8% 3.3% 4.8% Long-Term Bonds 8.0% 8.6% 8.4% Banks and Others 9.3% 9.9% 9.3% Deposits 77.9% 78.1% 77.5% Deposit Composition Others 0.8% 1.3% 0.9% Time deposits 33.7% 36.6% 37.6% Checking accounts 23.8% 25.2% 22.9% Savings deposits 41.7% 37.0% 38.5% Deposits / Net Loans (%) 1.08x 1.05x 1.06x 13

Capital Figures in Ps. Trillions Attributable Equity + Minority Interest 1Q15/4Q14: -1.9% 1Q15 / 1Q14: 18.3% Attributable Shareholders Equity 12.1 1Q15/4Q14: -2.5% 1Q15 / 1Q14: 22.1% 15.1 14.7 Minority interest 6.6 7.4 7.3 Attributable Shareholders' Equity 12.1 15.1 14.7 Total Equity 18.6 22.5 22.0 Equity + minority interest / Assets Tangible capital ratio (2) 11.7% 12.6% 11.6% 8.8% 9.8% 8.8% Consolidated Capital Adequacy of our Banks (%)* Primary capital (Tier 1) Solvency Ratio 7.4 8.0 7.8 9.3 8.9 10.0 9.8 10.5 11.0 10.7 11.6 10.5 11.0 11.5 10.8 12.8 11.8 12.1 11.5 12.2 12.2 11.8 12.6 11.3 Tangible Capital Ratio (2) 9.4 10.0 8.9 13.0 12.3 11.7 14.4 15.8 14.6 12.0 11.7 11.5 Includes Ps. 2.5 trillion of capital raised between Sep, 2014 and Oct, 2014 through a preferred share offering in the NY Stock Exchange. (2) Tangible Capital Ratio is calculated as Shareholders Equity plus Minority Interest minus Goodwill divided by Total Assets minus Goodwill. As of 1Q15, our bank s tangible capital ratios are as follows: 8.9% in Banco de Bogotá, 11.7% in Banco de Occidente, 14.6% in Banco Popular and 11.5% in Banco AV Villas. * Solvency ratios and Tier 1 figures for 2014 are presented under Colombian Banking GAAP and for 1Q15 under IFRS. 14

NIM Net Interest Margin Net interest income (trillions) 1Q15/ 1Q14 1Q15/ 4Q14 1.86 1.95 2.12 13.6% 8.4% 7.8% 7.8% 7.7% 7.4% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% 6.8% 6.9% 6.8% 6.8% 3.9% 7.1% 4.6% 6.0% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.7% 5.8% 2.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.0% Avg. cost of funds / Total Int. and non Int. funding 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 4.0% 3.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Loans Interest Margin Net Investments Margin (2) Net Interest Margin (3) Loans Interest Margin: Net Interest Income on Loans to Average loans and financial leases. (2) Net Investment Margin: Net Interest income on Fixed Income securities and on Interbank and Overnight funds to Average Fixed Income securities and Interbank and overnight funds. (3) Net Interest Margin: Net interest income divided by total average interest-earning assets. 15

Fees and other operating income Figures in Ps. Billions Fees 889.4 10.7% 20.0% 12.7% 1Q15 / 1Q14: 16.9% 6.1% 1Q15/4Q14: 2.8% 1,011.2 1,039.6 11.6% 11.9% 19.0% 19.2% 5.3% 5.5% 13.1% 12.1% 50.6% 51.1% 51.3% Commissions from banking services Credit Card fees Fiduciary activities Pension funds management Other Total gross fees and other service income. Other operating income 1Q15 / 1Q14: 1.2% 1Q15 / 4Q14: -15.7% 256 307 259 61 83 128 246 128 175 Dividend Income Other operating income Dividend Income 128 61 83 Foreign exchange (losses) gains, net (10) 80 73 Income from non-financial sector, net 78 109 62 Other 60 57 40 Total other operating income 256 307 259 16

Efficiency and non operating income, net Operating expenses / Operating Income 50.5% 52.9% 47.9% Operating expenses / Average Assets 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% Efficiency Ratio is calculated as Operating Expenses before D&A divided by Operating Income before net provisions. Efficiency Ratio is calculated as annualized Operating Expenses before D&A divided by average of total assets. Non operating income, net 21 92 88 17

Profitability Figures in Ps. Billions Net income 350 414 503 EPS Shares Outstanding (MM Average) ROAA $17.2 $18.6 $22.6 20,374 22,278 22,281 1.5% 1.3% 1.7% ROAA 12 months 1.6% 1.6% ROAE (2) 11.7% 11.5% 13.2% ROAE 12 months 14.4% 13.4% ROAA for each quarter is calculated as annualized Net Income before Minority Interest divided by average of total assets. (2) ROAE for each quarter is calculated as annualized Net Income attributable for Aval's shareholders divided by average attributable shareholders' equity. 18

Banking GAAP vs IFRS Balance Sheet Figures in Ps. Billions Banking GAAP IFRS Change Balance Sheet 1Q15 1Q15 $ % Cash and cash equivalents 21,510.8 21,991.2 480.4 2.2% Investment Securities, net 31,268.5 30,705.3 (563.1) -1.8% Loans and financial leases, net 114,982.7 116,822.5 1,839.8 1.6% Goodwill, net 5,887.3 6,107.8 220.5 3.7% Other assets, net 12,040.6 17,628.6 5,588.0 46.4% Reappraisal of assets 3,854.0 - (3,854.0) -100.0% Total Assets 189,543.8 193,255.4 3,711.5 2.0% Total Deposits 122,138.4 122,590.5 452.1 0.4% Other Funding 35,544.7 38,144.1 2,599.3 7.3% Derivatives 1,633.2 1,650.2 17.0 1.0% Other liabilities 8,186.9 9,315.2 1,128.3 13.8% Total Liabilites excl. Minority Interest 167,503.3 171,700.0 4,196.7 2.5% Minority Interest 7,315.5 7,422.0 106.5 1.5% Shareholders' Equity 14,725.0 14,133.4 (591.6) -4.0% Total Liabilities, shareholders' equity and minority interest 189,543.8 193,255.4 3,711.5 2.0% Preliminary information 19

Banking GAAP vs IFRS Income Statement Figures in Ps. Billions Banking GAAP IFRS Change Income Statement 1Q15 1Q15 $ % Total Interest Income 3,352.3 3,332.4 (19.9) -0.6% Interest expense (1,234.8) (1,291.1) (56.3) 4.6% Net Interest Income 2,117.6 2,041.3 (76.2) -3.6% Total provisions, net (434.3) (398.7) 35.6-8.2% Fees and other services income, net 881.6 885.3 3.7 0.4% Other operating income 258.5 235.0 (23.5) -9.1% Operating expenses (1,709.1) (1,626.2) 82.9-4.8% Non-operating income/(expense), net 88.1 187.6 99.5 113.0% Income before income tax expense and non- controlling interest 1,202.3 1,324.3 122.0 10.1% Income tax expense (448.1) (492.5) (44.3) 9.9% Net Income before Minority interest 754.2 831.8 77.6 10.3% Income attributable to Minority Interest (251.0) (278.2) (27.2) 10.8% Net Income attributable to Grupo Aval shareholders before wealth tax 503.2 553.7 50.5 10.0% Wealth tax attributable to Grupo Aval shareholders(2) - (208.7) (208.7) 0.0% Net Income attributable to Grupo Aval shareholders after wealth tax 503.2 344.9 (158.2) -31.4% Preliminary information (2) Wealth tax paid by Grupo Aval and its subsidiaries totaled Ps. 303.2 billion 20

Erratum On slide 16 we changed the title from Net Fees to Fees. The numbers on the slide remained unaltered. 21