The Future Trends in Tourism Global Perspectives

The Future Trends in Tourism Global Perspectives the future of TOURISM, a Club of Amsterdam conference 31.05.2007, Amsterdam. Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 1

[A] Tourism already a global competition The current state: facts & figures Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 2

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Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 4

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Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007 The World s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 9

The future state: forecasts & figures Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 10

[T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies 2005 2025: Two Asian Decades Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 11

Source: WTTC 2007 Asia s Future Tourism Tigers Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 12

Source: WTTC 2007 Asia s Future Tourism Tiger Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 13

Source: WTTC 2007 Asia s Future Tourism Tigers Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 14

Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 15

LCC in Asia s Tourism Market [2006] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 16

UNWTO s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast] Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 17

UNWTO s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 18

Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 2025 in World Regions PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 2025 Average Annual Growth Rate in % Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 19

[T2] Tourism Future Ageing Europe Europe s New Burden Retirement Poverty Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 20

Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Life exspectancy at birth, 2001 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 21

Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing in the EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 22

Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing Depopulation and Shrinking Cities [in EUROPE] Facts: According to the United Nations, population ageing is increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of our times. By 2030 the EU can expect 14 percent fewer workers and 7 percent fewer consumers as 2005 By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% of the total population or 60% of the working age population. Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 23

Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing in the EU: Germany Belgium Denmark Spain France Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050 Share of persons 60 years and over [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat] Germany: 2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41% Belgium: 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38% Denmark: 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36% Spain: 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44% France: 2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38% Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 24

Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing Depopulation and Shrinking Cities [in EUROPE] Consequences: Shrinking Income Shrinking Consumption Skrinking Wealth Old Age Poverty & Social Exclusion Growing Health Risks & Long Term Health Problems Large Scale Immobilities & Neglected Space [Destinations] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 25

Results from the SHARE-Project Tourism Future & Ageing Europe...clearly indicate that men [http://www.share-project.org] and women with a lower socio Population Ageing economic status have already a worse physical health than those with a higher socio Depopulation economic position Among both men and women, a and low educational level or income is associated with a higher risk Shrinking Cities of reporting less than good selfperceived health, long-term problems, as well as activity [in EUROPE] limitations due to health problems. Consequences: Shrinking Income Shrinking Consumption Skrinking Wealth Old Age Poverty & Social Exclusion Growing Health Risks & Long Term Health Problems Large Scale Immobilities & Neglected Space [Destination] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 26

Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing Depopulation and Shrinking Cities [in EUROPE] Consequences: Shrinking Income Shrinking Consumption Skrinking Wealth Discussed Solution: New Migrant Workers: Old Age Poverty & Social Exclusion 80 700 million migrants by 2050! Growing Health Risks & Long Term Health Problems A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism shall follow! Large Scale Immobilities & Neglected Space [Destination] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 27

[T3] Tourism Future VFR-Tourism CU soon, my friend/brother Global VFR-Tourism Streams Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 28

The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 29

[T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change The Mediterranization of Western- and Central-Europe Climate Change Advantages [?] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 30

IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth s surface temperature for: Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 31

IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth s surface temperature for... Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 32

Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 33

IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy] Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 34

North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 35

North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 36

North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 37

Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Amerika Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 38

Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Amerika Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 39

Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Elderly (esp. European) may avoid travel to very hot summer destinations ; i. g. Amerika the Mediterranean Basin East Coast USA South-West USA Australian Cities Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 40

NW- and CentralEurope s Domestic and Incoming Tourism Streams may benefit from CC in the summer saison! Warmer Coastal Waters [Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism] New Marine Attractions [Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds] Warmer Land Surfaces & Mediterranization of Lifstyles Copyright 2007 Joachim Willms all rights reserved 41