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How Humans Impact the Environment Jonathan M. Links, PhD Johns Hopkins University
Environmental Sciences The natural environment Ecology Man s impact on the natural environment Ecology and environmental engineering The environment s impact on man Environmental health sciences 3
The Environment and Health The natural environment The built environment The social environment 4
Human/Environment Impact Circle Humans Environment
Precepts The physical environment, our habitat, is the most important determinant of human health Protection of the environment and preservation of ecosystems are the most fundamental steps in preventing human illness Environmental problems are global and long-term Human belief systems are part of the problem 6
The Earth as a Fishbowl Ecosystem Solar energy Natural Resources Energy Resources Environmental Services Heat 7
Small Population and Little Technology Small population and little technology society has low impact on environment ENVIRONMENT Deplete SOCIETY Traditional economics Pollute 8
Our Expanding Numbers World population growth throughout history and near-term future 10 9 8 6 billion 1998 5 billion 1987 4 billion 1974 3 billion 1959 2 billion 1938 1 billion 1830 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Billions of People 2.5 M yrs ago 7000 B.C. 4000 B.C. 1000 B.C. A.D. A.D. 1 2040 9
Larger Population and Increased Technology Larger population and increased technology society has great impact on environment ENVIRONMENT Deplete SOCIETY Pollute Environmental economics 10
Societal Needs and Wants W N E E D S W A N T S A N T ENVIRONMENT S 11
Why Do We Pollute the Environment? Human behavior Needs Wants Driving forces Population Technology Economic, political, and social values Mitigating forces Environmental laws Market adjustments Informal social regulation Environmental change 12
The Industrial Process and the Environment Chemical inputs (raw materials) Power inputs (gas, oil coal) Other inputs (water) I N D U S T R Y Air pollution Water pollution Toxic waste The product itself 13
Environmental Impact (A Model) I = P x A x T I = environmental impact; P = population; A = affluence; T = technology Growth in environ. impact Growth in population Growth in affluence = x x Growth in technology Consumption 14
U.S. Material Consumption Trends 800 Million Metric Tons 600 400 200 Indust. Minerals Metals Nonfuel Organics Paper Wood Agriculture 0 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 15
U.S. Household Ownership of Appliances 100 80 Percent 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Color TV Air Conditioners Microwave Video Recorders 16
World Fossil Fuel Use Million Tons of Oil Equivalent 9000 7500 6000 4500 3000 1500 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 17
Sulfur and Nitrogen Emissions from Fossil Fuel Burning Worldwide emissions from burning fossil fuels 80 Million Tons 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Sulfur Nitrogen Dioxide 18
The London Killer Smog of 1952 Daily concentrations of smoke and sulfur dioxide are related to the number of excess deaths each day in London Adapted by CTLT from. 19
World Automobile Production and Fleet 40 600 Production (millions) 30 20 10 400 200 Fleet (millions) 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Production Fleet 0 20
MSW and Per Capita Generation of MSW Municipal solid waste (MSW) and per capita generation of MSW Million Tons 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Pounds/Person/Day Million Tons of MSW Pounds/Person/Day 21
The Big Questions 1. What is this pollution doing to us? 2. What can we do about it? 22
Problem-Solving Paradigm: Six Steps 1. Define the problem 2. Measure its magnitude 3. Understand key determinants 4. Develop intervention/ prevention strategies 5. Set policy/priorities 6. Implement and evaluate Risk assessment Risk management 23
Risk Assessment and Management Hazard identification Exposure assessment Doseresponse assessment Risk characterization Risk communication Risk management 24
Dose-Response Curve 100% R e s p o n s e 0 Carcinogens Non-carcinogens Dose 25
Dose-Response Curve R e s p o n s e Observable Range Range of Inference Dose 26
Risk Management Approaches Engineering Process controls Emission reduction Social and behavioral Worker training Risk communication and risk reduction 27
Risk Management Approaches Regulatory Emission limits Mandated processes 28
Perceived vs. Actual Risk Underprotection Optimum Protection Overprotection Public Policy Public Policy Public Policy Perceived Risk Perceived Risk Perceived Risk Actual Risk 29
Recognition of a Broader Environmental Impact Food security Climate change Deforestation Desertification Land degradation Stratospheric ozone depletion Loss of biodiversity 30