International arrivals in Greece 2013 & 2014 - an estimation based on administrative data July 2015 Dr. Aris Ikkos, ISHC Research Director Evangelia Lamprou Analyst, Statistician Institute SETE 34 Amalias Avenue - GR 105 58 Athens www.insete.gr - info@insete.gr SETE Intelligence Republishing is allowed on condition of mentioning the Source
Contents INTRODUCTION... 1 ARRIVALS BY ROAD... 3 ARRIVALS BY SEA... 13 ARRIVALS BY AIR... 16 SUMMARY OVERVIEW - COMPARISON WITH FRONTIER SURVEY... 19
Introduction The tourists arriving in Greece are recorded by the Frontier Survey of the Bank of Greece, which is based on the sampling method 1 and records international arrivals of non-residents of Greece, regardless of their nationality. This study aims at supplementing this information, by recording arrivals on the basis of administrative data (which are usually based on nationality (Greek Foreign passport)) and not the place of residence (resident non-resident). Moreover, while the data of this study are based on the visitor s point of entry into the country, the Frontier Survey records visitors as they exit. Certain differences in the estimates are therefore anticipated. The data contained in this report were collected from border checkpoints for arrivals by road, ports for arrivals by sea and the Civil Aviation Authority and the Athens International Airport for arrivals by air. Specifically, the study records international arrivals at the following points of entry into the country: - arrivals by road at the border checkpoints of Kakavia, Ag. Konstantinos, Krystallopigi, Niki, Evzonoi, Nymfaia, Doirani, Promachonas, Exochi, Kyprinos, Ormenio, Kastanies, Kipoi, Mertzani and Sagiada. The Police Stations at the corresponding Border Checkpoints assisted in the collection of the primary administrative data; - arrivals by sea at the ports of Patras and Igoumenitsa. The Greek Shipowners Association for Passenger Ships (SEEN) assisted in the collection of the primary administrative data; - arrivals by air at the airports of Anchialos, Athens, Aktion, Alexandroupoli, Araxos, Zakynthos, Heraklion, Thessaloniki, Ioannina, Kavala, Kalamata, Karpathos, Corfu, Kefalonia, Kos, Limnos, Mykonos, Mytilene, Rhodes, Samos, Santorini, Skiathos, Chania and Chios. The Civil Aviation Authority and the Athens International Airport assisted in the collection of the primary administrative data; 1 The methodology followed is described in detail in http://www.bankofgreece.gr/bogekdoseis/econbull200607.pdf p. 63 1
We would like to express our sincere thanks to all the agencies mentioned above for the data they provided us with, which allowed us to produce this study. Obviously, any errors or omissions in the analysis or presentation of the data are our own. 2
ARRIVALS BY ROAD 3
Arrivals by Road The following map and table show the country s border checkpoints and the number of arrivals of foreign nationals at each one. The checkpoints have been numbered in descending order according to the number of inbound foreign nationals. The local Police Stations record international arrivals based on nationality, regardless of place of permanent residence, therefore including foreign immigrants residing in Greece as they return from travelling abroad. 4
No. CHECKPOINT BORDER WITH 2013 2014 Δ %Δ 1 EVZONOI FYROM 2.551.676 2.594.392 42.716 2% 2 NYMFAIA BULGARIA 56.202 1.837.957 1.781.755 3170% 3 PROMACHONAS BULGARIA 285.724 1.680.518 1.126.240 203% 4 KRYSTALLOPIGI ALBANIA 1.041.323 951.176-90.147-9% 5 KAKAVIA ALBANIA 601.767 748.560 146.793 24% 6 EXOCHI BULGARIA 741.957 742.511 554 0% 7 KIPOI TURKEY 577.513 645.688 68.175 12% 8 ORMENIO TRIPOINT 492.150 441.087-51.063-10% 9 NIKI FYROM 284.679 278.462-6.217-2% 10 SAGIADA ALBANIA 554.278 266.317-19.407-7% 11 DOIRANI FYROM 132.124 153.240 21.116 16% 12 KASTANIES TURKEY 114.548 136.153 21.605 19% 13 AG. KONSTANTINOS BULGARIA 173.650 129.815-43.986-25% 14 KYPRINOS TRIPOINT 97.595 110.163 12.568 13% 15 MERTZANI ALBANIA 31.880 37.506 5.626 18% TOTAL 7.703.067 10.753.546 3.016.328 39% Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE In 2014, there were 10,75 million foreign national arrivals into Greece by road, with a growth of 39% as compared to 7,70 million. in 2013. The Nymfaia checkpoint, operating since September of 2013, contributed to a great extent to this increase, as did the Promachonas checkpoint, which recorded a 203% increase compared to 2013. The most arrivals in 2014 were recorded at the Evzonoi checkpoint (FYROM borders) whereas second and third come the checkpoints of Nymfaia and Promachonas at the Bulgarian borders. Also, we must note that, according to the information we were given, the data of inbound tourism from Bulgaria are underestimated because not all vehicles passing through are checked. 2 2 The Tripoint is the common border area between Greece, Bulgaria and Turkey 5
The next graph shows the traffic at the border checkpoints, as well as the change compared to 2013.. A growth of traffic in 2014, is observed at most checkpoints. 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 ARRIVALS BY ROAD PER BORDER CHECKPOINT, 2014 6
As shown in the pie chart more than half (57%) of inbound road tourism arrivals cross through 3 checkpoints (Evzonoi at the border with FYROM and Nymfaia and Promachonas at the border with Bulgaria) and more than 2/3 through 4 checkpoints (the ones just mentioned plus Krystallopigi at the border with Albania). OTHER ORMENIO 10% KIPOI 4% 6% EXOHI 7% KAKAVIA 7% KRYSTALLOPIGI 9% TRAFFIC PER BORDER CHECKPOINT PROMACHONAS 16% EVZONOI 24% NYMFAIA 17% The following Table and graph present the inbound road traffic at the border checkpoints grouped per country they border with. The number of arrivals at the Tripoint dropped by 7%, while the number of arrivals from the borders with Albania and FYROM remain at the same levels as in 2013. At the borders with Turkey a 13% increase is observed. There is an impressive increase at the borders with Bulgaria, reaching 188% with 2.9 million more arrivals by road, recorded in 2014. This increase corresponds to 95% of the total growth seen in arrivals by road for 2014. More than half of the additional arrivals in 2014 passed through Nymfaia. 7
CHECKPOINTS BORDERING WITH 2013 2014 Δ %Δ BULGARIA 1,526,087 4,390,801 2,864,714 188% FYROM 2,968,479 3,026,094 57,615 2% ALBANIA 1,960,694 2,003,559 42,865 2% TURKEY 692,061 781,841 89,780 13% TRIPOINT 589,745 551,250-38,495-7% TOTAL 7,737,067 10,753,546 3,016,479 39% Source: Border Checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE 4.500.000 4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 BULGARIA FYROM ALBANIA TURKEY TRIPOINT 2013 2014 Source: Border Checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE 8
Seasonality of Road Tourism The following graph shows the seasonality of inbound road tourism. The peak season May to October, represents 76% of the total arrivals, in 2014. SEASONALITY 2014 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 January February March April May June July August September October November December Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE NYMFAIA NIKI KRYSTALLOPIGI AG KON/NOS ORMENIO KYPRINOS KASTANIES KIPOI DOIRANI EVZONOI KAKAVIA MERTZANI EXOCHI SAGIADA PROMACHONAS 9
SEASONALITY 2014- PER COUNTY OF BOARDING CHECKPOINTS TRIPOINT ALBANIA BULGARIA FYROM TURKEY 1.200.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 200.000 0 J A N U A R Y F E B R U A R Y M A R C H A P R I L M A Y J U N E J U L Y A U G U S T S E P T E M B E R O C T O B E R N O V E M B E R D E C E M B E R Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE As it is presented in the above graph, a clear seasonal pattern is observed in the border checkpoints with Bulgaria and FYROM. These countries not only serve travellers registered Bulgaria and FYROM, but also travellers from the Central and Southern Europe. 10
More seasonality graphs for 2013 and 2014 per country- checkpoint border follow below ALBANIA FYROM BULGARIA. TRIPOINT TURKEY Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE INTELLIGENCE As seen in the graphs, seasonality is not so intense at the Tripoint border Also, in Albania there are lower peaks in January, and right after Easter, possibly reflecting Albanian immigrants in Greece, who are returning to their residence after a holiday. A clearly accentuated seasonal pattern appears in 2014 at all borders, with the exception of Albania. Especially in Bulgaria, after the Nymfaia checkpoint opened in September of 2013, a significant tourist arrival peak was observed. 11
Estimate of Inbound Road Tourism As mentioned above, these arrivals include foreign immigrants residing in Greece, since they are recorded on the basis of nationality and not on the basis of place of residence. According to the 2011 Census by the Hellenic Statistical Authority, the total immigrants in the country amount to 912,000, 658,000 of which were nationals of Albania, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Moldavia and Ukraine. Our estimate is that these immigrants made approximately 1,500,000 journeys by road abroad to visit their countries of origin in 2013 and 1,650,000 in 2014. As a comparison we note that all journeys by road of permanent residents of Greece (i.e. Greeks residents of Greece and immigrants in Greece) are 1,890,373 in 2013 and 2,191,455 in 2014 according to the Frontier Survey of the Bank of Greece and 1,543,000 and 1,671,000 respectively according to IPK International 3. Therefore, the number of inbound road tourism in Greece is estimated at 6,237,067 for 2013 and 9,103,546 for 2014. International Arrivals by Road of Foreign nationals 2013 2014 Δ %Δ Total International Arrivals by Road of Foreign nationals 7,737,067 10,753,546 3,016,479 39% minus estimated total Arrivals of Immigrants returning to Greece 1,500,000 1,650,000 150,000 10% Total International Arrivals by Road of Foreign nationals 6,237,067 9,103,546 2,866,479 46% Source: Border checkpoints Processing: SETE Intelligence 3 ΙΡΚ International does not count journeys without overnight stay. It is therefore reasonable that it falls under the estimate by the Frontier Survey that counts all border crossings. 12
ARRIVALS BY SEA 13
Arrivals by Sea TRAFFIC OF SHIP PASSENGERS GREECE-ITALY-GREECE 2013 2014 Δ 2014 / 2013 January 58,956 4% 58,699 4% -0.4% February 46,125 3% 54,867 4% 19.0% March 76,521 5% 85,708 6% 12.0% April 95,801 7% 108,178 7% 12.9% May 102,746 7% 102,848 7% 0.1% June 126,945 9% 127,914 9% 0.8% July 223,909 16% 211,480 15% -5.6% August 308,555 21% 309,012 21% 0.1% September 164,909 11% 159,081 11% -3.5% October 100,149 7% 102,835 7% 2.7% November 62,107 4% 65,381 5% 5.3% December 68,805 5% 63,888 4% -7.1% Total 1,435,528 1,449,891 1.0% of which Foreigners 717,707 50% 905,717 62% 26.2% estimate of arrivals of foreigners 358,854 452,859 26.2% arrivals of foreigners at: Igoumenitsa 222,489 62% 276,244 61% 24.2% Patras 136,364 38% 176,615 39% 29.5% Source: SEEN In this section the number of arrivals of foreign nationals entering Greece by sea, is presented. Due to lack of data for the ports of the Aegean, the study focuses on the ports of the Ionian Sea (Patras and Igoumenitsa). The corresponding boarding ports of passengers in Italy are: Ancona, Brindisi, Bari, Venice, Trieste and Ravenna. We find that while in 2014 total passenger traffic increased only marginally (+1%), traffic by foreign nationals increased significantly (+62%), outweighing the drop in the traffic by Greeks Furthermore the percentile distribution of arrivals between Igoumenitsa and Patras, remained practically unchanged. Moreover it is noteworthy that passenger traffic does not include transit passengers stopping in Greece. The estimation of foreign nationals arrivals is based on hypothesis that they all return to their home country, and therefore arrivals equal 50% of the total passenger traffic. 14
The pie chart below presents the seasonality of the passenger traffic by sea. The peak is observed from June to September and represents the 55.7% of the total traffic in 2014. SEASONALITY 2014 Other months 44% September 11% June 9% August 21% July 15% Source: SEEN Processing: SETE Intelligence 15
ARRIVALS BY AIR 16
Arrivals by Air AIRPORT 2013 2014 Δ %Δ ARAXOS 70.006 73.786 3.780 5% AKTION 154.489 175.986 21.497 14% ALEXANDROUPOLI 3.302 448-2.854-86% ANCHIALOS 34.986 32.346-2.640-8% ZAKYNTHOS 488.161 575.009 86.848 18% HERAKLION 2.472.775 2.595.702 122.927 5% THESSALONIKI 1.351.378 1.569.814 218.436 16% KAVALA 72.512 75.370 2.858 4% KALAMATA 57.947 108.623 50.676 87% KARPATHOS 60.337 71.986 11.649 19% CORFU 943.917 1.074.289 130.372 14% KEFALONIA 198.033 209.725 11.692 6% KYTHIRA 4.251 5.922 1.671 39% KOS 925.834 1.011.367 85.533 9% LIMNOS 9.213 9.804 591 6% MYKONOS 177.540 247.126 69.586 39% MYTILENE 54.395 75.139 20.744 38% NAXOS 751 804 53 7% RHODES 1.785.305 1.926.675 141.370 8% SAMOS 103.563 122.392 18.829 18% SANTORINI 244.449 310.416 65.967 27% SITEIA 1.932 2.437 505 26% SKIATHOS 119.070 141.609 22.539 19% SKYROS 9 0-9 -100% CHANIA 849.271 935.615 86.344 10% CHIOS 8.735 8.228-507 -6% TOTAL 10.192.161 11.360.618 1.168.457 11% Source: Civil Aviation Authority - Processing: SETE Intelligence The table shows arrivals at the country s regional air-ports, i.e. all airports except Athens, from flights origi-nating abroad. In 2014 there were 11.36 million arrivals from abroad, an increase of 11% compared to 2013. These data are from the Civil Aviation Authority, which records inbound passengers without distinction between residents and nonresidents of Greece, i.e. it also includes permanent residents of Greece returning from abroad in arrivals by air. In order therefore to estimate incoming non-residents we must deduct from the total number the Greeks returning from travelling abroad. According to IPK International, the total number of residents of Greece who travelled by air abroad was 2,377,000 in 2013 and 2,356,000 in 2014, while according to the Athens International Airport (AIA), the total number of residents of Greece who travelled abroad through the AIA was 1,445,844 in 2013 and 1,534,753 in 2014. It is therefore estimated that among arrivals at regional airports in 2013 there are 931,156 residents of Greece returning from abroad and respectively 821,247 in 2014. 17
Estimate of Inbound Tourism by Air Therefore, the total inbound air arrivals into the country is estimated at 13,929,193, increased by 2,049,830 (17%) compared to 2014. Inbound Tourism by Air 2013 2014 Δ %Δ Total International Arrivals by Air at Regional Airports 10,192,161 11,360,618 1,168,457 11% minus Arrivals at Regional Airports of Residents returning to Greece 931,156 821,247-109,909-12% Arrivals of non-residents at Regional Airports 9,261,005 10,539,371 1,278,366 14% minus Arrivals of non-residents at the Athens International Airport 2,618,358 3,389,822 771,464 29% Total International Arrivals by Air of non-residents 11,879,363 13,929,193 2,049,830 17% Source: Civil Aviation Authority, ΙΡΚ International, AIA - Processing: SETE Intelligence 18
SUMMARY OVERVIEW - COMPARISON WITH FRONTIER SURVEY 19
Summary overview Comparison with Frontier Survey The following table shows the summary overview of international arrivals per means of transport, according to this study, i.e. on the basis of administrative data, and based on the Frontier Survey of the Bank of Greece, i.e. based on a sample survey of visitors, and the deviation (%D) between the two is also noted. 2013 2014 Administrative data Frontier Survey %Δ Administrative data Frontier Survey %Δ Comments Arrivals by air 11.879.363 12.302.448 4% 13.929.193 14.057.215 1% The difference is statistically insignificant. Arrivals by sea in Patras and Igoumenitsa 358.854 573.140 60% 452.859 599.205 32% On the one hand the estimate based on administrative data is significantly lower than the Frontier Survey and on the other, while the Administrative Data record a 26% increase in 2014, the data of the Frontier Survey record a 4.5% increase. Other arrivals by sea n/a 233.820 n/a 102.140 There are no available administrative data. Arrivals by road 6.237.067 4.810.172-23% 9.103.546 7.268.007-20% A significant deviation between the two estimates is observed despite the adjustment made to the administrative data for residents of Greece returning from travelling abroad. It is noteworthy that the Frontier Survey does not include a sample of arrivals from all Border Checkpoints; total arrivals are estimated on basis of a small sample taken from some Border Checkpoints. Arrivals by rail 0 0 n/a 6.895 There are no administrative data available. In our opinion the deviation in the estimate of arrivals by road between this study and the Frontier Survey requires further investigation, because in the event that the estimate of this study is more accurate (with nearly 2 million more arrivals by road in 2014), there are significant consequences both for the policy on tourism (e.g. improvement of road infrastructure, focus on markets of Central and Southern Europe for tourism in Macedonia and Thrace, etc.), as well as for the estimate of travel receipts in the balance of payments. 20
21