Analysis of Chinese Motor Insurance Yao Rui Tao Qian Orlando, United States June 2007
Agenda Motor insurance market context Third Party Motor Insurance in China Motor vehicle insurance rating Final Considerations 1
Motor insurance market context 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 37610 34510 d 1100 Chi na USA Japan 0. 900 0. 800 0. 700 0. 600 0. 500 0. 400 0. 300 0. 200 0. 100 0. 000 0. 828 0. 611 0. 081 Chi na USA Japan 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 62. 57 56. 02 37. 93 Chi na USA Japan 120 100 80 102. 2 per 100000 motor vehi cl es per 100000 i nhabi tants 1600 1400 1200 1000 per 100000 motor vehi cl es per 100000 i nhabi tants 1188. 6 982. 38 1515. 1 926. 05 60 800 40 20 0 17. 5 14. 5 8. 3 9. 4 5. 8 Chi na USA Japan 600 400 200 0 458. 9 37. 10 Chi na USA Japan 2
Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- GDP ($) per inhabitant 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 d 37610 34510 5000 0 1100 Chi na USA J apan Back 3
Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Motor vehicles per inhabitant 0. 900 0. 800 0. 828 0. 700 0. 600 0. 611 0. 500 0. 400 0. 300 0. 200 0. 100 0. 000 0. 081 Chi na USA J apan Back 4
Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Motor vehicles per road-km 70 60 56. 02 62. 57 50 40 37. 93 30 20 10 0 Chi na USA J apan Back 5
Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Road deaths 120 100 102. 2 80 60 40 20 0 17. 5 14. 5 8. 3 9. 4 5. 8 Chi na USA J apan Per 100000 motor vehicles Per 100000 i nhabi t ant s Back 6
Motor insurance market context Economic Activity and Traffic ---- Road injuries 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 1188. 6 982. 38 1515. 1 926. 05 600 400 200 0 458. 9 37. 10 Chi na USA J apan Per 100000 motor vehicles Per 100000 i nhabi t ant s 7
Motor insurance market context 1. 8% 1. 6% 1. 4% 1. 2% 1. 0% 0. 8% 0. 6% 0. 4% 0. 2% 0. 0% 0. 550% 0. 173% 1. 652% 1. 015% 0. 939% Chi na USA Japan Motor insurance penetration TPL i nsurance penetrati on 0. 238% 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 86. 55 7. 00 793. 25 656. 47 555. 79 339. 71 Chi na USA Japan Pr emiumincome (mot or i nsurance) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emiumincome (mot or i nsurance) per i nhabi t ant 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 27. 28 2. 21 487. 45 403. 40 140. 82 Chi na USA Japan Pr emiumincome (TPL) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emiumincome (TPL) per i nhabi t ant 86. 08 8
Motor insurance market context Gross Premium Revenue --- insurance penetration 1. 8% 1. 6% 1. 4% 1. 2% 1. 0% 0. 8% 0. 6% 0. 4% 0. 2% 0. 0% 1. 652% 1. 015% 0. 939% 0. 550% 0. 173% 0. 238% Chi na USA J apan Mot or i nsur ance penet r at i on TPL i nsur ance penet r at i on Back 9
Motor insurance market context Premium income (total motor insurance) per unit 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 86. 55 7. 00 793. 25 656. 47 555. 79 339. 71 Chi na USA J apan Pr emi umincome ( motor i nsurance) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emi umincome ( mot or i nsur ance) per i nhabi t ant Back 10
Motor insurance market context Premium income (TPL) per unit 600 500 400 487. 45 403. 40 300 200 100 0 27. 28 2. 21 140. 82 Chi na USA Japan Pr emi umincome ( TPL) per mot or vehi cl e Pr emi umincome ( TPL) per i nhabi t ant 86. 08 11
Third Party Motor Insurance in China Regulation development for TPL 12
Third Party Motor Insurance in China Introduction to SALI Introduction to commercial TPL Distinctions between SALI and commercial TPL Compulsoriness Coverage Limits of liability Exclusions and Deductible Premium Profit 13
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Agenda Rating of SALI Rating of commercial TPL Primary tariff Adjustment coefficients Rating factors Bolus Malus System 14
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating of SALI No-loss, No-profit rules Uniform regulation and primary tariff Independent management and account Revise future premium rates. 15
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating of commercial TPL Main classes of risk rating factors Motor vehicles Drivers Driving environment. Rate Final rate = Primary tariff C 1 C 2 L C n where C 1 2 L, C,, C n are adjustment coefficient. 16
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Primary tariff Rating factors usage number of seats tonnage limit of insurance liability place of registration/residence (region) 17
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Adjustment coefficients Premium differentiation factor classes spread Driver/owner classification agender 2 5% age 5 1.11 age of driving license 3 1.05 loyalty bonus 2 10% additional Contract with insurer 2 5% Use classification BMS 7 1.86 motoring fines 2 10% user group(no. of drivers) 2 10% low-mileage discount 3 1.44 region of use4 4 1.25 Motor vehicle classification type of car/model 3 1.54 Additional classifications motorcade management * * experience & excepted loss ratio 5 1.86 No. of cars insured 4 1.25 The overall spread with regard to the primary premium differentiation is approx. 1 to 21.23 18
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating factors-Ⅰ 19
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Rating factors-Ⅱ 20
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Bonus Malus System In 2003, only four to five classes In June 2006 Three different BMS Ten different classes In April 2007 The new BMS that is being used Seven classes Premium fluctuation spread are much smaller 21
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Bonus Malus System No. class premium 1 year 2 years 3 years The spread for the BMS is 1.857 No claims in the past after less than 3 Downgrading after 3 after 4 after more than 4 upgrading to the class claims to the class 1 7 130% 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 2 6 120% 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 3 5 110% 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 4 4 100% 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 5 3 90% 3 2 1 4 6 6 7 6 2 80% 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 7 1 70% 3 2 1 4 5 6 7 22
Motor vehicle liability insurance rating Appraisal Easy to understand and to use It is not a optimal BMS Bonus and malus are insensitive to the claim frequency Induce adverse selection Premium income might decrease 23
Final Considerations Further development Market Actuarial technologies Rating factors BMS SALI presents many uncertainties for the market Much further research remains to be done 24
Yao Rui and Tao Qian 25