Investing in volatile times Advice & Answers Financial Services
Agenda Sub-prime mortgages Investment update
Agenda Recent returns Global investment update The importance of diversification
Market returns to 30 April 2008 Asset class 1 year to April 2008 5 years to April 2008 (pa) Australian shares -5.6% 18.1% International shares -13.6% 6.4% Listed Property -22.3% 10.5% Australian fixed interest 3.6% 4.6% International fixed interest 8.2% 6.6% Cash 7.1% 6.0% CPI (lagged) 3.9% 2.7% Defensive 0.4% 7.9% Moderately Defensive -3.1% 9.1% Balanced -6.0% 10.6% Growth -8.1% 11.7% High Growth -10.1% 11.8%
Market returns to 30 April 2008 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Asset Class Performance over 5 years to April 2008 Australian Shares International Shares Listed Property Australian Fixed Interest Overseas Fixed Interest Cash Balanced (based on investment of $10,000) $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $- Source: Datastream Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08
Market update US economy very weak Central Bank intervention Sub-prime crisis* - both broad and deep Economic growth (developed v emerging markets) Will the Australian economy keep surging on the back of resources? * See next slide for explanation of sub-prime crisis
What are sub-prime mortgages? US borrowers with poor credit quality US$1.2 trillion dollars in loans Securitised and on-sold Default rates high Causing massive write downs at investment banks Exacerbated by falling house prices
Impacts of sub-prime on broader market Investor nervousness Higher borrowing costs Weaker earnings outlook Large bank write-downs (and recapitalisation) Strong demand for cash and bonds Markets factoring in this information Growth in emerging markets still robust
Note the stronger outlook for emerging markets Global GDP World Economic Growth Forecast (Percent Average Annual Rate) Non-Japan Asia EEMEA* Latin America Global Euro Area United States Japan 3.4% 3.1% 2.6% 1.9% 2.2% 2.5% 1.6% 1.2% 4.2% 8.6% 8.1% 6.3% 5.7% 5.0% 2007 Forecast 2008 Forecast Current forecasts do not guarantee future results. Data as of 3 January 2008 *Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa Source: AllianceBernstein
Financial markets round-up Volatility has returned Key risk is the earnings outlook Global economic growth to remain sound, but more divergent Corporate fundamentals remain sound Some concerns over US consumer resilience Strong inflation controls evident Strength in emerging markets a positive
Australian share dividends... over time Return on investment (income) of $100,000 to March 2008 50,000 45,000 ASX200 annual dividends Cash deposit interest 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Mar-1981 Mar-1984 Mar-1987 Mar-1990 Mar-1993 Mar-1996 Mar-1999 Mar-2002 Mar-2005 Mar-2008
While capital growth has also been strong Return on investment (capital value) of $100,000 to March 2008 $1,200,000 ASX200 value Cash deposit value $1,000,000 $800,000 Capital value $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $0 Mar-1981 Mar-1984 Mar-1987 Mar-1990 Mar-1993 Mar-1996 Mar-1999 Mar-2002 Mar-2005 Mar-2008
Summary Recent returns have been poor, but longer-term good Growth assets offer protection against inflation and capital erosion Expect higher volatility but stronger longer-term returns from growth assets Cash looks attractive but is not a realistic long-term solution Best way to meet longer-term investment goals is by holding a diversified portfolio of high quality assets.
Rolling 12 month returns Balanced portfolio 50% 40% Balanced Portfolio rolling 12 month return gross of fees and tax to 30 April 2008 Rolling 12 month returns for a Balanced Portfolio Mean Return Minimum Maximum 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Apr-88 Apr-90 Apr-92 Apr-94 Apr-96 Apr-98 Apr-00 Apr-02 Source: Datastream Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08
Rolling 5 year returns Balanced portfolio 50% 40% Balanced Portfolio rolling 5 year return gross of fees and tax to 30 April 2008 Rolling 12 month returns for a Balanced Portfolio Mean Return Minimum Maximum 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Apr-88 Apr-90 Apr-92 Apr-94 Apr-96 Apr-98 Apr-00 Apr-02 Source: Datastream Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08
Super opportunities for 2008 Advice & Answers Financial Services
Agenda Super - the ideal investment structure for retirement planning Limits/caps on superannuation contributions Super strategies/opportunities using case studies Converting personally held assets to super - Steve Maximising concessional contributions Carl & Jane Boost your super transition to retirement - Peter Summary and questions
Super system Super Guarantee Salary sacrifice Self-employed / Personal deductible contributions Non-concessional contributions 15% Nil tax 15% tax on earnings Tax-free earnings in pension Super fund Preservation Pension Lump sum Tax payable depends on your age Super is not an investment - it is a structure for holding assets
Why is super the ideal investment structure? Super versus Non-super Pre-tax MTR Non-super Super Difference* $1 0% $1.000 $0.85-15.0% $1 16.5% $0.835 $0.85 1.8% $1 31.5% $0.685 $0.85 24.1% $1 41.5% $0.585 $0.85 45.3% $1 46.5% $0.535 $0.85 58.9% *Ignores tax offsets Non- Gov't co- Salary Conces contribution Total Difference <$28,980 $1,000 max $1500 $2,500 150% Payoff reduces as income rises from $28,980 to $58,980
Why is super the ideal tax structure? Lump sums or pension payments are tax free from age 60 Reasonable benefit limits (RBLs) abolished Compulsory cashing abolished Personal contributions by self-employed individuals are fully tax deductible Flexible pension payments with no maximum and only a minimum required (except non-commutable allocated pensions)
Limit on non-concessional contributions Your age on 1 July of the relevant year Non-concessional contribution cap Under 65 65 or over * $150,000 per year or $450,000 averaged over three years $150,000 per year Treatment of excess non-concessional contributions 46.5% payable by the individual The liability must be funded by a withdrawal from your super fund * Must have worked at least 40 hours in 30 consecutive days
Limit on concessional contributions Your age Under 50 at the end of the relevant financial year At least 50 at the end of the relevant financial year (2007/08 to 2011/12) Concessional contribution cap $50,000 $100,000 Treatment of excess concessional contributions 31.5% payable by the individual. The excess contributions tax is in addition to the 15% contributions tax. Excess concessional contributions are also counted towards your non-concessional contributions cap.
What opportunities are available in 2008? 1. Converting assets held personally into super 2. Maximising concessional contributions 3. Boost your super as you transition to retirement
What opportunities are available in 2008? 1. Converting assets held personally into super 2. Maximising concessional contributions 3. Boost your super as you transition to retirement
Converting assets held personally into super Sell assets outside of super and contribute the proceeds into super In-specie transfer assets into superannuation
What are the issues? Contribution rules and caps Costs of sale Capital gains tax (CGT) Stamp duty Transaction costs Restrictions on in-specie transfers
Steve s story Steve aged 55, received an inheritance of $190,000 from his aunt in 2001. Steve invested the funds in a share portfolio which in March 2008 is valued at around $270,000. Option 1 If Steve holds the shares for the next 10 years and continued to re-invest the dividends his portfolio would be worth approx. $477,000. If he were to sell the shares in 10 years time he would be liable for approx. $46,600 of capital gains tax leaving a net value of $430,400. Option 2 Steve sells the shares in March 2008 which results in a capital gains tax liability of approx. $12,700. Steve contributes the proceeds into super and elects to re-invest all the dividends. The shares would be worth approx. $480,400 in 10 years time. The projections in this strategy are based on various assumptions, including but not limited to: re-investment of all dividends; Steve s marginal tax rate is 41.5 %; estimated investment return= 2.1% pa (income), 4.5% pa (capital growth); Shares are sold within pension phase, therefore CGT is not payable.
Steve s story Option 2 $480,400 Option 1 $430,400 $50,000 The projections in this strategy are based on various assumptions, including but not limited to: Steve s marginal tax rate is 41.5%; reinvestment of all dividends; estimated investment return= 2.1% pa (income), 4.5% pa (capital growth); Shares are sold within pension phase, therefore CGT is not payable.
What opportunities are available in 2008? 1. Converting assets held personally into super 2. Maximising concessional contributions 3. Boost your super as you transition to retirement
Maximise concessional contributions Salary sacrifice or personal deductible contributions Concessional contributions are generally the best way to save tax and build wealth Five year window of opportunity to maximise concessional contributions ends 30 June 2012 Concessional super contributions taxed at up to 15% compared to marginal tax rate of up to 46.5%
What are the issues to consider? Contribution caps and rules Preservation rules
Carl & Jane s story Carl and Jane are married. They have recently paid off their mortgage and are concerned about their retirement. Carl, age 51, is employed as an events manager earning $95,000 which provides a net income of $68,475 per annum Jane, age 47, is employed as a day care centre manager earning $70,000 which provides a net income of $53,350 per annum They require a net income of $80,000 An opportunity exists for Carl to maximise his concessional contributions The projections in this strategy are based on various assumptions, including but not limited to: Carl receives the same level of SG after salary sacrifice, Super contributions tax is ignored in both scenarios, Tax rates effective 1 July 2007 includes Medicare levy and low income tax offset.
Carl & Jane s story Salary - Carl Superannuation guarantee Salary sacrifice Net salary sacrifice contribution Income Gross income Tax on income Net income - Carl Net income - Jane Benefits Total combined net income Net salary sacrifice contribution Benefits of maximising concessional contributions Gross salary sacrifice contribution Contributions tax on salary sacrifice (15%) Total benefit (excluding SG contributions) Current situation $ 95,000 8,550 0 0 0 95,000 26,525 68,475 53,350 121,825 0 121,825 After salary sacrifice $ 30,000 8,550 65,000 9,750 55,250 30,000 3,300 26,700 53,350 80,050 55,250 135,300
What opportunities are available in 2008? 1. Converting assets held personally into super 2. Maximising concessional contributions 3. Boost your super as you transition to retirement
Transition to retirement strategy Problem how to boost your super as you transition to retirement without reducing your current income Solution a strategy based around accessing your super through a non-commutable allocated pension (NCAP) Action steps Continue to work Boost your super with salary sacrifice payments Maintain current income with an NCAP Result have your cake and eat it too with more super for your retirement
NCAPs in a nutshell NCAPs can only be started once you reach preservation age currently 55 Purchased with superannuation money Minimum and maximum limits Lump sum withdrawals (commutations) generally not allowed
How to have your cake and eat it too Once you ve reached your preservation age, continue to work at your present level Purchase an NCAP with your superannuation money Salary sacrifice into your super account (subject to employer s agreement) Maintain current income by drawing a pension from your NCAP Tax advantages mean your income stays the same but your super may receive a boost
Peter s story Peter, age 55, wants to retire at 65 and work full-time until then He earns $60,000 per year - $46,650 after tax and Medicare levy Peter has $300,000 in super On 1 July 2007, Peter rolls over all his super into an NCAP and chooses the maximum pension payment of $30,000 He salary sacrifices $37,080 (year 1) into super and receives the same net income of $46,650 after tax and Medicare levy The projections in this strategy are based on various assumptions, including but not limited to: maximum pension payment = $30,000 in year 1; salary sacrifice = $37,080 in year 1; no change in take-home pay before/after strategy; no change in risk profile; estimated investment return (Balanced portfolio) = 5.9% pa (super), 6.8% pa (pension); all investment earnings figures are after tax and after fees; no change in Super Guarantee contributions, ie 9% of $60,000.
Peter s position without the strategy Gross income $60,000 Superannuation $300,000 Take-home income $46,650
An NCAP gives Peter a super boost $37,080 Gross income $22,920 $300,000 $30,000 Take-home income $46,650 The projections in this strategy are based on various assumptions, including but not limited to: maximum pension payment = $30,000 in year 1; salary sacrifice = $37,080 in year 1; no change in take-home pay before/after strategy; no change in risk profile; estimated investment return (Balanced portfolio) = 5.9% pa (super), 6.8% pa (pension); all investment earnings figures are after tax and after fees; no change in Super Guarantee contributions, ie 9% of $60,000.
Peter s estimated gain It s estimated that by using this strategy Peter will have built an extra amount of around $84,000 in super by age 65 The increase is due to tax advantages and will not require a change in investment strategy By making additional salary sacrifice contributions Peter could increase his super still further
Key points Converting personal assets to super can increase your retirement nest egg 5 year transitional cap on concessional contributions Transition to retirement strategy using an NCAP should be considered by people 55 and over and still working You should get advice about these super opportunities
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