NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline

NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline

Summary This tool was approved by the Steering Group on 24 April 2008. Last updated 15 th August 2008 What is the status of this document? This guideline covers the fundamentals of conflict-risk assessment and provides guidance on different methodologies for undertaking conflict-risk assessment at the country, sector, and development activity levels. What will this guideline do? This guideline: Introduces key concepts relating to conflict Outlines what conflict-risk assessment can tell us Sets out the different levels that conflict-risk assessment can be applied and the different processes it can inform Discusses when NZAID should consider making use of, supporting, or undertaking conflict-risk assessment Overviews different approaches/methodologies to conflict-risk assessment and gives guidance on when to use what approach/methodology Identifies useful conflict-risk assessment resources for further reference Who is this guideline for? This guideline is for NZAID staff involved in policy dialogue with development partners; NZAID programme strategy development; and the identification, design, management and monitoring and evaluation of NZAID activities. It particularly targets staff working on programmes located in countries affected by or at risk of violent conflict. It is intended to equip staff with sufficient understanding of conflict-risk assessment for them to consider it in their work, but not necessarily enough for them to be able to undertake a conflict-risk assessment themselves which will usually be the responsibility of development partners and/or contractors. NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 2 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Table of Contents NZAID commitment, rationale and key concepts...4 What is conflict-risk assessment, and what does it tell us?...5 Why undertake conflict-risk assessment?...6 When is conflict-risk assessment undertaken?...6 How do you undertake conflict-risk assessment?...9 Annex 1: Conflict risk screening guide taken from the World Bank s Conflict Analysis Framework...14 Annex 2: Key Questions for Conflict Analysis...15 Annex 3: Appraisal questions for conflict-related review at the programme level...17 Glossary...18 References...20 NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 3 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

NZAID commitment, rationale and key concepts NZAID Commitment NZAID s policy on Preventing Conflict and Building Peace recognizes that peace and security are fundamental to achieving the fulfillment of basic needs, and sustainable and equitable development. NZAID s policy states that NZAID will ensure that all strategies and programmes consider the risks of conflict and are designed to prevent conflict and build peace. NZAID s policy on Preventing Conflict and Building Peace and this guideline relate to violent conflict and the ways in which societies manage it. It is primarily focused on violent conflict with the potential to escalate across society, and on the problem of intrastate hostilities. The word conflict is used throughout this document to refer to violent conflict. Given the increasing prominence of whole-of-government approaches in conflict and post-conflict environments, effective responses require coordination between diplomatic, military, and development efforts. This means it is particularly important to consider if and how other relevant parts of government might be involved in any conflict-risk assessment undertaken by NZAID, and how the findings of such assessment can be disseminated and discussed with New Zealand government and other stakeholders in order to help develop a shared understanding of the situation. At the time of writing (January 2008) NZAID has very limited experience in conducting conflict-risk assessments. This tool serves to provide an introduction to conflict-risk assessment, and provide guidance to NZAID staff so that it can be applied to strategies and programmes, in line with NZAID policy. It will be important that lessons learnt are captured and shared, and that this tool is updated at an early stage. Rationale Although the exact links between underdevelopment and conflict remain unclear, today the majority of the world s violent and protracted conflict takes place in developing countries, with intra-state conflict being the most common form. Donors have become aware that development assistance can both ameliorate and exacerbate the underlying causes of a conflict, and/or have a positive or negative impact on conflict dynamics. Many donors, including NZAID, are therefore interested in incorporating conflict awareness into their strategies and programmes. Various tools have been developed to analyse conflict (or potential conflict), and identify responses that will make development programmes more conflict sensitive. NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 4 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Key concepts Conflict is inherent in all societies from the least developed to the most industrialized. It occurs not only between states, but also within and between households and communities and within states. When resolved constructively, conflict can lead to social innovation and economic progress; and can be a constructive and necessary force for political, social or economic change. Over time, societies develop institutions (including formal and informal rules) to manage and resolve conflict. A structurally stable society has functional conflict resolution mechanisms to manage conflict constructively and non-violently. These mechanisms allow for people s participation, and provide for their security. Representative political systems, transparent and accountable government, civilian oversight of security forces, free and independent media, and legal systems that protect human rights, a functioning police force and an independent judiciary equip a country to manage and transform tensions and conflicts that will arise. Policies that reduce poverty and inequality including in health and education, improve human rights, provide economic opportunities and promote good governance can contribute to the prevention of violent conflict. Conflict sensitivity in development programming is about: understanding the context in which you operate; understanding the interaction between your intervention and the context; and acting upon the understanding of this interaction, in order to avoid negative impacts ( do no harm ) and maximise positive impacts. What is conflict-risk assessment, and what does it tell us? Conflict risk assessment refers to the process of analyzing a country situation in order to assess better the conflict-related risks associated with development or humanitarian assistance. It can be used in violent conflict and post-conflict situations and it can also provide early-warning of a potential conflict in situations where tensions exist, but violent conflict has not broken out. Conflict risk assessment can be undertaken at a strategic level to focus on a region, country or sector, or at the Activity level. Conflict risk assessments usually contain three components (see the Glossary for definitions of the terms used below): conflict analysis which analyses the structures, actors and dynamics of a conflict or potential conflict; an analysis of responses to the conflict, how these interact with conflict dynamics, and their impacts; the generation of strategies and options to make development interventions more conflict sensitive. There are a wide variety of frameworks which have been developed by various development agencies which may be of use to NZAID staff in specific situations. This tool outlines the common elements of many of these frameworks, and discusses when they are best used. NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 5 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Why undertake conflict-risk assessment? Conflict-risk assessments are undertaken in order to improve the effectiveness of development policy and programmes in countries where NZAID engages. Undertaking a conflict-risk assessment provides no guarantee that violent conflict will not take place, but it can help us to understand the local context and assess: risks of negative effects of conflict on programmes; risks of programmes or policies exacerbating conflict; opportunities to improve the effectiveness of development interventions in contributing to conflict prevention and reduction. Conflict-risk assessment can help provide a basis for a policy dialogue, with partners, with other development actors, and within the New Zealand whole-of-government context. It can contribute to developing a shared understanding of the local context. This is a prerequisite for developing a coherent approach amongst different actors. It is important that conflict-risk assessment does not make us risk-averse as an agency. Development involves change, and change is often accompanied by some degree of tension because it threatens vested interests. Undertaking a conflict-risk assessment can help us to understand the context better, and the likely impact of our intervention. It should provide us with better information so that we are able to understand who is likely to benefit from (and support) and who is likely to lose from (and work against) a particular intervention. For example, an intervention which aims to strengthen the voice of women in local level decision making may create conflict with traditional governance structures, including when strengthening traditional governance structures has been seen as desirable for conflict prevention. Or an economic development project may create jealousy within a community if individuals or families become successful entrepreneurs, even in situations where lack of economic opportunity is a cause of conflict. These are not reasons to avoid supporting women s empowerment or economic development. Rather, effective conflict-risk assessment should help us to predict these tensions, and develop risk management strategies that could lead to a more successful intervention overall. When is conflict-risk assessment undertaken? Conflict Risk assessment is relevant at various stages of Strategy and Activity development, although the approach or framework used will vary at these different stages. Partner country national, sector and sub-national planning frameworks and processes NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 6 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Particularly in countries emerging from conflict or where there is a perceived risk of conflict taking place, NZAID should encourage partner governments to consider a conflict-risk assessment as part of the development, reform or review of its: national policy framework, including national development strategy, macro policies and public expenditure programme; sector policies, strategies and programmes sub-national plans and programmes Partner led processes can have advantages, including increased ownership and a greater likelihood that findings will be acted upon in key national planning documents. Depending on the context, there can also be risks that the assessment itself will be perceived as biased by some important actors. Where donors support (or accept the findings of) the assessment, it can help build a common understanding of the context and priority issues to be addressed. This is a useful step towards developing a coherent response. The role of NZAID in supporting a partner-country to undertake conflict-risk assessment at these levels will depend on a variety of factors, including: the history of the country concerned, including recent conflict, and the perceived risk of future conflict the availability and quality of existing conflict analysis and relevant information the interest and capacity of the partner country to undertake it the political situation and the willingness of the government to act constructively on the findings the interest and capacity of regional organizations or other development partners to support the assessment NZ s relationship with the country concerned, and perceptions about NZ s role in the conflict the potential to inform existing or planned NZAID policy engagement and programming and influence whole-of-government processes NZAID Country Programme Strategies and Sector Strategies NZAID s Guideline for Developing a Programme Strategy sets out the expectation that conflict prevention and peace-building will be considered in all country programme strategies. The type of conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment, its comprehensiveness, and detail will vary from programme to programme. As a minimum, you should use (NZAID s Screening Guide) http://nzaidtools.intranet/index.php?q=screening-guide-mainstreamed-other-crosscutting-issues and the risk screening indicators in the first stage of the World Bank s Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF) as tools to help your programme team decide whether a detailed conflict-risk assessment is required. These Risk Screening Indicators are attached as Annex One. (These risk screening indicators do not identify potential regional or inter-state risk factors.) If your programme team decides that these screening tools, or other factors, indicate that a more detailed conflict-risk assessment is needed, you will need to source appropriate and up-to-date conflict analysis (for example from other development partners). If NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 7 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

existing conflict analyses are deficient, and NZAID is a significant donor in the country concerned, there might be a strong case for NZAID supporting some original analysis of conflict as part of the country strategy development process. This analysis will be most useful if completed in advance of the strategy development process so that there is time to utilize the analysis in the conflict-risk assessment which informs the development of the programme strategy. The country programme strategy should set out clearly the assessed level of risk of conflict for NZAID s programme strategy, how NZAID will respond, expectations about the use of conflict assessment as a part of future Activity identification and design, and indicators to measure progress in conflict prevention and peace building. Chapter 4 of the resource pack Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment provides an excellent overview on Integrating conflict sensitivity into sectoral approaches. This should be read by staff involved in planning a country strategy or sector strategy development process in conflict-affected or at-risk countries. Staff will also find useful DfID s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes. NZAID Activities Depending on the country context, the findings of the conflict analysis, and any conclusions in the country programme strategy, different approaches to conflict-risk assessment will be appropriate for programme or Activity identification, design and planning, implementation and evaluation. In determining whether to undertake a conflict risk assessment of an Activity, the determining factor should be whether the Activity will take place within an area at risk of conflict, rather than whether the activity itself has a conflict reduction or peace building objective. Conflict risk assessment at Activity level is best applied at the identification and design phases of the activity cycle, and thereafter built into ongoing monitoring and evaluation. The depth of assessment and analysis appropriate to each, will be determined by the country context as well as the size, scope, modality, timeframe and nature of the defined outcomes of the proposed Activity. In countries with a low risk of conflict, it will not be necessary to include time-consuming conflict risk assessment at the Activity level (although you may still wish to consider incorporating some sort of political-economy analysis such as drivers of change analysis in these programmes). All NZAID supported activities in conflict-risk areas (including activities carried out as part of NZAID regional or thematic strategies) should consider the relevance of the three conflict related questions in the NZAID Screening Guide for Mainstreamed and Other Cross-Cutting Issues: How might this programme or Activity impact on existing and/or potential conflict dynamics (eg domestic, community, intra-state)? NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 8 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Will the benefits of the programme or Activity decrease disparities and/or inequities? Will the programme or Activity help address the causes and/or impacts of conflict? If one or more of these questions are relevant to the particular Activity and they are not adequately addressed by existing sources of information or analysis, a conflict risk assessment for that Activity should be considered. There are several tools which can be used at the Activity level. Kenneth Bush s Working Paper A Measure of Peace: Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA) of Development Projects in Conflict Zones is a useful source for appraisal questions that could be adapted for the environment in which you are working. If you are still not satisfied that the Activity is sufficiently conflict sensitive, you may wish to include resources in the Activity design budget to undertake a conflict risk assessment. Both CDA Collaborative Learning Projects The Do No Harm Handbook and Chapter 3 of the resource pack Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment have useful guidance on approaches that can be used at the project level. Rather than undertake a full conflict risk assessment: you may decide that it is more appropriate to integrate aspects of conflict analysis into other forms of analysis such as poverty analysis or gender analysis (see the References for several tools for gender-sensitive conflict analysis, reflecting the often very different impacts of conflict on men and women). This may be an effective and efficient approach in some circumstances. Section 4 Chapter 2 of the Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment resource pack provides some (limited) guidance on how this can be done. It will be particularly useful to consider this approach where partners already feel inundated with studies and analysis and may be reluctant to undertake a conflict-risk assessment for this reason. How do you undertake conflict-risk assessment? If, after using the NZAID Cross Cutting Issues Screening Guide and the World Bank Conflict Risk Screening Guide (annex 1), the team has decided a conflict-risk assessment is warranted, the next step is to select an appropriate approach, methodology, and tool. The type and depth of conflict-risk assessment appropriate will be determined, among other things, by the level of conflict risk, the level of partner (and/or NZAID) planning processes it is to inform, the sufficiency of existing analysis and information, and in the case of NZAID programmes and Activities, the size, modality, and timeframe of the proposed programme or Activity. The following information focuses on NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 9 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

conflict-risk assessment at the national or country or sector strategy level, although it will also have some relevance to Activity level conflict risk assessment. There are three key components of conflict-risk assessment: conflict analysis which analyses the structures, actors and dynamics of a conflict or potential conflict; an analysis of responses to the conflict, how these interact with conflict dynamics, and their impacts; the generation of strategies and options to make development interventions more conflict sensitive. Step One: Conflict analysis The first step of any conflict-risk assessment process involves an analysis of underlying issues. This may draw on existing analyses undertaken by other donors or development partners, be initiated by NZAID, or undertaken in collaboration with other development partners. Key questions for a conflict analysis Annex Two contains a list of key questions that a conflict analysis should answer. It should be used as a starting point rather than a definitive list, as each context is unique. Choosing the right approach There are a variety of approaches, methodologies and tools for undertaking conflict analysis. It is important that the approach chosen is appropriate to the situation. The following are some questions which you may wish to ask in order to choose the most appropriate tool (you may, of course, wish to adapt an existing tool to particular circumstances), or to draft terms of reference. Purpose Is the proposed process consistent with your aims? Is the tool appropriate to the level you wish to analyse (eg strategy, sector or activity)? Does the tool provide the information you need for your work? Assumptions Do you share the tool s specific understanding of conflict? Methodology Does the proposed methodology match the purpose of the analysis? Is it appropriate to the context? How long does it take to gain results? Resource implications What are the resource implications of the selected tool (eg staff time, consultant s inputs, workshop costs, data management, ongoing monitoring costs?) NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 10 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

The following points should be considered when commissioning or planning a conflict analysis. Politicisation Conflicts are inherently political and it is important to recognize that no matter the intentions, participants in the analysis (including NZAID) will be seen as having a political agenda. It will be important to consider how you will manage this. Discussion of conflict analysis or conflict-risk assessment may itself be a sensitive issue for some partners. You may need to think carefully about the language that you use to broach this topic with partners. Discussion by programme teams, and with MFAT colleagues is important when deciding how to proceed. Participants Conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment is usually greatly enhanced by local knowledge. It can be undertaken in partnership with the partner government or other local actors and doing so can facilitate its application (although care should be taken in choosing partners both to ensure the end product is widely accepted, and that individuals are not exposed to unnecessary risk). In some circumstances, conflict analysis and risk assessment processes can also play a capacity building, or even a peace building, function. Some tools are specifically designed with this aim. In other cases, you may decide that it is most appropriate to undertake the conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment largely within the programme team, although involving others (eg partners, donors, other NZ government agencies) can help create opportunities to improve alignment and harmonisation. It will be important to think carefully about the purpose of a conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment when selecting the most appropriate approach. Dissemination It is also important to plan the dissemination of the conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment. The process and its findings have the potential to play a useful role in stimulating debate. There are also risks that it could provoke a negative reaction amongst some actors. When you are preparing to commission the conflict-risk assessment, and the conflict analysis component, you should define the audience and potential audience, and develop a dissemination strategy. Your dissemination strategy should include consideration of how to handle awkward issues, and unexpected reactions to the findings. It should also include preparing local contacts to receive the findings. It will be advantageous to work closely with the Head of Mission in doing this. Step Two: Analysis of responses NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 11 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

This analysis provides the context within which to focus on the role of development interventions and their interaction with conflict. It helps assess the level of coherence between different actors responses, and will help identify strategies and options for NZAID. This stage usually involves: Mapping responses of international actors (including military, diplomatic etc) Analysing roles of development actors (focus, size, is the approach in, on or around conflict, capacities) Assessing the interactions between development interventions and the dynamics of conflict and peace (both the impact of conflict on interventions, and the impact of interventions on conflict) DfID s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes are a useful resource. Step Three: Developing strategies and options This step is important to determine how NZAID might try to influence whole-ofgovernment, and other international and development actors approaches. It also provides an opportunity to reflect on current activities, and to identify opportunities for new initiatives which focus on addressing important issues for peace building. Staff will find DfID s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes useful. Annex 3 contains a useful list of questions for strategy teams or staff reviewing the conflict sensitivity of programme activities (adapted from UNDP s Conflict-related Development Analysis which follows a similar methodology to DfID). Indicators for ongoing monitoring Conflict risk assessment is not a one-off process. To be effective it needs to be ongoing so that the impact of activities on conflict dynamics and peace building is monitored, and NZAID is able to make changes where necessary to minimize harm and maximize positive impact. For this reason, it is important that the expected conflict and peace impact of interventions is made explicit in the design phase of strategies and Activities, and to develop indicators to measure these. Chapter 3 on Conflict Sensitive Implementation of the resource pack Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment provides useful advice. Further guidance There are many other approaches which we have not referred to in this tool. Several publications provide useful tables comparing these approaches, including: Conflict Sensitive Approaches to Development: A review of practice. Cynthia Gaigals with Manuela Leonhardt, Saferworld, International Alert, International Development Resource Centre. Appendix 1: Frameworks for Conflict Impact Assessment NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 12 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

For more specific guidance on when to undertake a conflict risk assessment, what approach or methodology to use, the depth of analysis appropriate, and the specifics of how to do it, contact the NZAID Governance Advisor, or members of the Community of Practice. NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 13 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Annex 1: Conflict risk screening guide taken from the World Bank s Conflict Analysis Framework 1. History of conflict If a country has experienced violent conflict in the past 10 years, there is a high possibility of recurrence of conflict. 2. Income per capita Countries with low per capita Gross National Income are more likely to experience violent conflict (eg US$745 per capita per annum). 3. Primary commodity exports 4. Political instability: - Transformation of state structure - Breakdown of law and order Countries with a high dependence on primary commodity exports face a higher risk of experiencing violent conflict (eg greater than 16% as a proportion of GDP). - Restructuring of the state at frequent intervals signals serious instability and the likelihood that violence may be employed to bring about systemic changes. - When the government is not able to maintain control or effective rule (in certain parts or throughout the country), the breakdown of law and order, and hence violence, is likely. - In terms of their link to violent conflict, these two aspects can occur in tandem or independently. 5. Political and civil rights The deliberate and systematic denial of civil liberties and political rights increases the likelihood that groups will express dissenting views through violence, thus increasing the probability of violent conflict. 6. Militarisation Countries may have high defence spending as a share of GDP, and large armies as a proportion of their population. Militarisation may also include the availability of arms and the existence of armed non-state actors. These facts suggest the likelihood of emerging or escalating violent conflict. 7. Ethnic dominance When one ethnic group controls state institutions and/or the economy, there is a high risk of outbreak of violent conflict. 8. Active regional conflicts Regional conflicts are likely to have a cascading effect, such that the internal stability of a country is threatened, increasing the probability of violent conflict. 9. Youth unemployment Youth unemployment (especially for males) can have a critical bearing on the probability of violent conflict. Lack of jobs and opportunities tend to create frustration, making unemployed youth prime candidates for recruitment by militant organizations. NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 14 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Annex 2: Key Questions for Conflict Analysis (with minor adaptations from Chapter 2 of the Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment resource pack). These are not intended as a definitive list, but rather as a guide to the sort of questions which a conflict analysis should be seeking to answer. A similar, but simplified list, is available in DfID s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes. Key questions for a conflict profile What is the political, economic, and socio-cultural context? e.g. physical geography, population make-up, recent history, political and economic structure, social composition, environment, geostrategic position What are the emergent political, economic, ecological and social issues? e.g. elections, reform processes, decentralization, new infrastructure, disruption of social networks, mistrust, returnees or refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), military and civilian deaths, presence of armed forces, mined areas, HIV/AIDS What specific conflict prone/affected areas can be situated within this context? e.g. areas of influence of specific actors, frontlines around the location of natural resources, important infrastructure and lines of communication, pockets of socially marginalized or excluded populations. Is there a history of conflict? e.g. critical events, mediation efforts, external intervention Key questions for an analysis of conflict causes What are structural causes of conflict? e.g. illegitimate government, lack of political participation, lack of equal economic and social opportunities, inequitable access to natural resources, poor governance What issues can be considered as proximate causes of conflict? e.g. uncontrolled security sector, light weapons proliferation, human rights abuses, destablising role of neighbouring countries, role of diasporas What triggers can contribute to the outbreak/further escalation of conflict? e.g. elections, arrest/assassination of key leader or political figure, sudden collapse of local currency, military coup, rapid change in unemployment, natural disaster, increased price/scarcity of basic commodities, capital flight NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 15 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Key questions for an actor analysis Who are the main actors? e.g. national government, security sector, local (military) leaders and armed groups, private sector/business, (local, national, transnational), donor agencies (including NZAID) and foreign embassies, multilateral organizations, regional organizations, religious or political networks, independent mediators, civil society, women s groups, peace groups, trade unions, political parties, neighbouring states, traditional authorities, diaspora groups, refugees/idps, all children, women and men living in a given context. What are their main interest, goals, positions, capacities, and relationships? e.g. religious values, political ideologies, need for land, interest in political participation, economic resources, constituencies, access to information, political ties, global networks, business linkages, business/economic goals What institutional capacities for peace can be identified? e.g. civil society, informal approaches to conflict resolution, traditional authorities, political institutions (e.g. head of state, parliament), judiciary, regional and multilateral bodies What actors can be identified as spoilers? Why? What are their incentives? e.g. groups benefiting from the war economy, smugglers, non-conflict sensitive organizations. Key questions for an analysis of conflict dynamics What are the current conflict trends? e.g. escalation or de-escalation, changes in important framework conditions What are windows of opportunity? e.g. are there positive developments? What factors support them? How can they be strengthened? What scenarios can be developed from the analysis of the conflict profile, causes and actors? e.g. best case, middle case and worst case scenarios NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 16 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Annex 3: Appraisal questions for conflict-related review at the programme level (adapted from UNDP s Conflict-related Development Analysis, October 2003 pp43-44) The following key questions can be used to compare the outcomes of the conflict analysis, with a specific programme (or project) to determine the degree to which the programme is conflict sensitive: Focus: Is the activity based on an accurate analysis of the conflict? And does this analysis include a gender analysis? Does the project focus on the key issues? Does it work around, in or on conflict? Could it focus more sharply on conflict? Preventive capacity Can the project be expected to have an impact on the dynamics of conflict? Does it limit the interests that may be driving the conflict? To what extent does the project address the conflict dynamics? Does the project address key scenarios? Do no harm Does the project do no harm? (this relates particularly to the processes of the project and should focus on: area of operation; choice of beneficiaries; choice of staff; other critical issues identified in the conflict analysis) Maximising impact Does it make the best use of possible partnerships? Does it make the best use of local capacities? Does it contribute to formal peace processes? Could it do so? Conclusion In what ways could the project be more strategic in relation to conflict? NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 17 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Glossary Conflict risk assessment: The process of analyzing a country situation in order to assess better the conflict-related risks associated with development or humanitarian assistance. Conflict assessments usually contain three components: conflict analysis; an analysis of responses to the conflict; and the generation of strategies and options to make development interventions more conflict sensitive. Conflict analysis: The systematic study of the profile, causes, actors and dynamics of conflict. It helps us to gain a better understanding of the context in which we work and our role in that context. Conflict profile: A brief characterization of the context within which the intervention will be situated. It includes historic, economic, political, ecological and socio-cultural aspects. Causes of Conflict: There is rarely a single cause of violent conflict, although it may be triggered by a single event. Rather, there are multiple causes rooted in economic, social and political structures. These often change over the course of the conflict, for example, as the conflict continues, fear or retribution for atrocities can become causes for the continuation of the conflict in themselves. Ethnic, religious and cultural differences are regularly cited as causes for conflict, but these often mask deeper grievances and feelings of injustice or are used by those who stand to gain from conflict to mobilize violence. Causes are often described as: Structural: pervasive factors that have become built into the policies, structures and fabric of a society and which may create the pre-conditions for violent conflict Proximate: factors contributing to a climate conducive to violent conflict or its further escalation Triggers: single key acts, events, or their anticipation that will set off or escalate violent conflict Conflict actors: The individuals, groups and institutions who contribute to conflict and/or are affected by conflict (in a positive or negative manner), and/or are engaged in dealing with conflict. It is important to understand their motives, the incentives they respond to, and the roles they play. Conflict dynamics: The resulting interaction between the conflict profile, the actors and causes. Conflict sensitivity: The process of understanding the context in which you operate; understanding the interaction between your intervention and the context; and acting upon the understanding of this interaction, in order to avoid negative impacts ( do no harm ) and maximise positive impacts. Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA): a means of evaluating (ex post facto) and anticipating (ex ante) the impacts of proposed and completed development Activities on: 1) those structures and processes which strengthen the prospects for peaceful coexistence and decrease the likelihood of the outbreak, reoccurrence, or continuation, NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 18 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

of violent conflict; and 2) those structures and processes that increase the likelihood that conflict will be dealt with through violent means. It examines five areas of potential impact: institutional capacity, military and human security, political structures and processes; economic structures and processes, and social reconstruction and empowerment. NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 19 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

References NZAID would like to acknowledge the extensive use of the following material in the writing of this guideline: NZAID Conflict and Peacebuilding Assignment, Part 1 and Part 2 (Pamela Harris, January 2007) Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes (Department for International Development, January 2002) AusAID A Measure of Peace: Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA) of Development Projects in Conflict Zones (Kenneth Bush, The Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Program Initiative & The Evaluation Unit, March 1998) Conducting a Conflict Assessment: A Framework for Analysis and Program Development ( USAID, August 2004) Conflict Analysis Framework (Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Team, World Bank, 2005) Conflict Prevention in the Pacific (Rebecca Spence and Iris Wielders, State Society and Governance in Melanesia, February 2006) Conflict-related Development Analysis (CDA) UNDP Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, October 2003) Conflict Sensitive Approaches to Development: A review of practice (Cynthia Gaigals with Manuela Leonhardt, Saferworld, International Alert, International Development Research Centre, 2001) Conflict Analysis for Project Planning and Management: A practical guideline (GTZ, draft April 2001) DAC Guidelines for Helping Prevent Violent Conflict ( DAC OECD, 2001) Gender Equality and Peacebuilding: An Operational Framework (CIDA Peacebuilding Unit and CIDA Gender Equality Unit, revised January 2001) (this is just one of a useful series of operational frameworks published by CIDA which also includes manuals on Children and Armed Conflict, Truth and Reconciliation Commissions, and Microdisarmament) NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 20 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED

Securing the Peace: Guiding the International Community towards Women s Effective Participation throughout Peace Processes (UNIFEM, October 2005) The Do No Harm Handbook (The Framework for Analyzing the Impact of Assistance on Conflict) (Collaborative for Development Action Inc. and CDA Collaborative Learning Projects, November 2004) NZAID Conflict-Risk Assessment Guideline Page 21 of 21 UNCLASSIFIED