Automotive Report 01/14 Analysis of New Car Registrations in Europe and Italy - January 2014 - Arthur D. Little S.p.A. Corso Monforte, 54-20122 Milan Via Sardegna, 40-00187 Rome Italy Tel. +39 02 67 37 61 Fax +39 02 67 37 62 51 www.adlittle.com
Automotive Report Flash report January 2014 Executive Summary Europe Executive Summary In January 2014 New Cars Registrations increased by 5.2% in Europe* TOP 5 European market experienced an increase in January 2014: Germany +7.2%, United Kingdom +7.6%, France +0.5%, Italy +3.2% and Spain +7.6% respect January 2013 In the first month of 2014, among the Top 10 countries Ireland and Poland experienced the highest increase in New Cars Registrations (+32.8% and +11.2% respectively)... on the contrary Austria, The Netherlands and Belgium showed a decrease in New Cars Registrations in January 2014: -13.6%, -7.1% and -2.2% respectively respect the same month of 2013 Germany confirmed its position as the leading European country, with a market share of 21.3% (+0.4% vs 2013) followed by UK with a market share of 16.4%, increased of +0.4% respect the same month of 2013. By contrast, France and Italy s shares decreased by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively (Market Share: France 13.0%, Italy 12.2%) The analysis by brand pointed out, among the main brands, increase in volume for Dacia(+38.1%), Toyota (+15.2%) and Skoda (+10.3%) TOP 3 Premium Brands registered an increase in the first month of 2014: Audi +8.5%, BMW +1.4% and Mercedes Benz +1.0% respect 2013 *EU (from January 2014 also Croatia reported) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 2
Automotive Report Flash report January 2014 Executive Summary Italy Executive Summary In January 2014 Italian market experienced an increase, with New Car Registrations up 3.2% relative to January 2013 An analysis by area pointed out that New Car Registrations were up in the North East, in the North West and in the Islands (+12.5%, +3.0% and +1.5% respectively in January 2014 vs January 2013) Fleet and Business segment pushed New Car Registrations in January with an increase of 22.4% and -3.0% respectively The analysis by Segment highlighted an increase in January 2014 for segment B (+13.2%), segment E (+11.3%) and segment F (+63.1%). The lunch of New Maserati Ghibli contributed to the performance of segment F The analysis of TOP 10 brand highlighted good performance in January 2014 for Peugeot (+29.6%), Renault (+27.9%) and Toyota (+22.7%) respect January 2013 BMW among the TOP 3 Premium Brands showed good performance in January 2014: +7.1% and +1.1% with respect to January 2013 3
Automotive Report Agenda 1 Europe 1.1 Market Overview 1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 2 Italy 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 Market Highlights 2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 2.4 New Car Registrations by Group 2.5 Top Ten New Car Registrations by fuel type 2.6 New Car Registrations by Segment 3 Focus on Electric Vehicles Market (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 3.1 EV Market Overview in Italy 4 New Car Models launches in Italy 4.1 New Cars Models by Segment - Roadmap 2014 4
Automotive Report Agenda 1 Europe 1.1 Market Overview 1.2 New Car Registrations by Brand 2 Italy 3 Focus on Electric Vehicles Market (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models launches in Italy 5
1.1 Europe Market Overview Top 10 European Markets* January 2014 vs January 2013 7 EU New Car Registrations* 6 49.584-2,2 44.568-7,1 1 205.996 +7,2 +5,2 10 22.913 +32,8 8 29.181 +11,2 2 967.778 920.373 154.562 +7,6 9 23.990-13,6 2014 2013 3 125.454 +0,5 5 53.436 4 117.802 # ## ## Ranking on January 2014 data New Car Registrations in Jan. 2014 Δ% Jan. 2014 / Jan. 2013 +7,6 +3,2 Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis *EU (from January 2014 also Croatia reported) + EFTA Countries (Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) 6
1.1 Europe Market Overview Top 10 European Markets January 2014 Highlights Market Share % Volume Jan.14/13 40,0 30,0 32,8 # Country January 2014 January 2013 1 21,3% 20,9% 0,4% 2 16,0% 15,6% 0,4% UK 20,0 DE 11,2 7,6 IT 10,0 3,2 7,6 FR 0,5 0,0 0,0% -2,2 10,0% 20,0% -10,0 0,5-7,1-13,6-20,0 7,2 Market Share 3 13,0% 13,6% -0,6% 4 12,2% 12,4% -0,2% 5 5,5% 5,4% 0,1% 6 5,1% 5,5% -0,4% 7 4,6% 5,2% -0,6% 8 3,0% 2,9% 0,1% 9 2,5% 3,0% -0,5% -30,0 New Car Registrations Jan. 2014 10 2,4% 1,9% 0,5% United Kingdom and Germany maintained a steady growth in Volume (+7.6% and +7.2%respectively) and Market Share (both +0.4% compared with 2013) Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis 7
1.2 Europe New Car Registrations by Brand EU + EFTA Registrations Top 15 Brand January 2014 vs January 2013 * Tot. Vol. 14 122.649 67.043 61.411 59.155 55.279 54.394 50.222 48.943 46.004 45.725 44.497 42.866 32.813 31.148 28.519 967.778 M.S. 14 12,7% 6,9% 6,3% 6,1% 5,7% 5,6% 5,2% 5,1% 4,8% 4,7% 4,6% 4,4% 3,4% 3,2% 2,9% 38,1% 15,2% % 14/13 7,6% 8,8% 8,8% 3,8% 8,5% 4,8% 1,4% 1,0% 10,3% 5,2% -7,8% -2,8% -4,0% -5,5% M.S. 14/13 0,3 0,2 0,2-0,1-0,8 0,2 0,0-0,2-0,2-0,4 0,4 0,2-0,3-0,4 0,7 Source: ACEA, Arthur D. Little Analysis *Opel includes Vauxhall New Car Registrations 8
Automotive Report Agenda 0 Global Market Overview 1 Europe 2 Italy 2.1 Market Overview 2.2 Market Highlights 2.3 New Car Registrations by Brand 2.4 New Car Registrations by Group 2.5 Top Ten New Car Registrations by fuel type 2.6 New Car Registrations by Segment 3 Focus on Electric Vehicles Market (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models launches in Italy 5 Italian Market Insights 9
2013 2014 2.1 Italy Market Overview Italian Market January 2014 vs January 2013 +3,0 38.667 32.954 +12,5-4,2 Top 10 Brand Italy Δ% Jan. 2014 / Jan. 2013 29,6 26.346-0,2 27,9 22,7 117.802 +1,5 13.276 13,7 12,3 114.102 6.559 9,6 7,1 +3,2 Δ% Jan. 2014 / Jan. 2013 Increase in the North East, in the North West and in the Islands in January 2014 Good performance for Pegeout,Renault and Toyota -9,4-15,0-4,3 10
2.1 Italy Market Overview Italian Market Variation of New Car Registrations 2014 vs 2013 (monthly value) 2014 starts with an increase of 3,2% of New Car Registrations 3,2 1,4 January February March April May June July August September October November December -1,9-2,9-4,9-4,5-5,5-5,6-6,6-8,0-10,8-17,6-17,4 13/ 12 14/ 13 11
2014 2013 2013 2014 2014 2013 2.2 Italy Market Highlights Market Highlights Italy January 2014 vs January 2013 Analysis by "Customer Segment" Analysis by " Fuel Type"* 80.034 80.170 19.379 17.813 14.553 19.955 Fleet and Business segment pushed New Car Registrations in January 2014 117.802 Petrol 30,0% -3,1 +6,5-13,8 CNG 4,9% LPG 8,3% +50,3 EV 1,3% +9,2 Diesel 55,5% Retail Fleet Business -0,2 +22,4 +3,0 Analysis by Geographical Area 114.102 Analysis by Car Segment 38.66737.547 32.954 29.281 27.508 26.346 +3,2 52.635 27.657 13.626 2.616 441 117.802 13.276 13.304 6.559 6.462 20.827 North-West North-East Centre South Islands A B C D E F Total +3,0 +12,5-4,2-0,2 +1,5-4,2 +13,2-3,9-5,8 11,3 63,1 *CNG: Compressed Natural Gas (Methane and Ethanol); EV: Electric Vehicle (Hybrid and Electric) %volume Jan.2014/Jan.2013 12
2.3 Italy New Car Registrations by Brand New Car Registrations by Brand January 2014 (1/3) Market Share % 21,0 8,0 6,3 5,4 5,3 4,8 4,8 4,8 4,2 4,2 3,4 3,1 2,9 2,9 2,7 24.712 Volume 9.421 7.454 6.347 6.284 5.664 5.607 5.602 4.948 4.906 3.954 3.703 3.473 3.382 3.237 97,3 Volume 14/13 % -4,3 9,6 12,3 29,6 27,9 13,7-9,4-15,0 22,7 7,1-13,3-1,9 1,1-9,5 M.S. 14/13 % -1,65 0,47 0,51 1,10 1,03 0,44-0,67-1,02 0,66 0,15-0,64-0,17-0,06 1,37-0,38 13
2.3 Italy New Car Registrations by Brand New Car Registrations by Brand January 2014 (2/3) Market Share % 2,4 2,0 1,9 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,0 1,0 0,8 0,8 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,3 0,2 Volume 2.799 2.405 2.265 1.670 1.479 1.427 1.207 1.133 997 904 523 475 474 366 241 Volume 14/13 % M.S. 14/13 % 20,2 20,4 16,6 6,9 7,7 5,6 7,6-0,3-5,9-4,6-9,6-7,4-10,9-14,4-15,4-0,33-0,42 0,06-0,16 0,18 0,05-0,04 0,14 0,02-0,17-0,07 0,04-0,04-0,03 0,00 14
2.3 Italy New Car Registrations by Brand New Car Registrations by Brand January 2014 (3/3) Market Share % 0,2 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 234 Volume 122 95 87 84 27 24 24 16 11 7 6 2 1 1 Volume 14/13 % M.S. 14/13 % 100,0 50,0 60,0 N/A 3,6 N/A -15,2-6,9-25,0-49,5-57,9-63,3-66,7-50,0-75,0-0,21 0,09-0,02 0,00 0,03-0,01-0,03 0,01 0,00-0,02-0,01 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00 15
2.4 Italy New Car Registrations by Group New Car Registrations by Group TOP 15 Groups - January 2014 Group Brand Volume Delta Volume 2014 vs 2013 Market Share (%) 1 FIAT 33.453-2,3 28,4 2 VOLKSWAGEN 16.458 9,3 14,0 3 PSA 11.954 7,8 10,2 4 RENAULT 9.666 45,9 8,2 5 GM 7.867-9,7 6,7 TOP5: 67,5% 6 FORD 7.454 12,3 6,3 7 HYUNDAI 6.036-9,5 5,1 8 DAIMLER 5.373-3,7 4,6 9 TOYOTA 5.032 23,5 4,3 10 BMW 4.952 6,1 4,2 TOP10: 92,0% 11 NISSAN 3.970-13,1 3,4 12 JAGUAR&LROVER 1.522 5,9 1,3 13 SUZUKI 1.207-0,3 1,0 14 VOLVO 904-15,4 0,8 15 HONDA 475-5,9 0,4 16
Diesel Methane Petrol LPG 2.5 Italy Top Ten New Car Registrations by fuel type Top Ten New Car Registrations Petrol, Diesel, LPG, Methane January 2014 PANDA 4.108 FIESTA 1.095 YPSILON 3.319 YPSILON 831 500 2.822 CORSA 775 PUNTO 2.289 500 629 FORTWO 1.596 PUNTO 588 YARIS 1.349 PANDA 510 POLO 1.306 DUSTER 504 C3 1.296 SANDERO 478 CLIO 993 CLIO 476 I10 915 SPARK 325 500L 3.381 PANDA 2.024 GOLF 2.633 PUNTO 1.103 C3 2.076 500L 639 CLIO 2.051 UP! 605 PUNTO 1.774 YPSILON 541 PANDA 1.739 QUBO 314 2008 1.662 ZAFIRA 242 POLO 1.522 MII 147 A CLASS 1.384 TOURAN 55 FIESTA 1.348 PASSAT 54 17
2.6 Italy New Car Registrations by Segment Segment A Utility\City Class Top 10 January 2014 Segment Market Share 40,3% Seg. A Market Share % -1,4 17,7 18,6% 8,0% 5,7% 5,0% 4,0% 3,1% 2,4% 2,2% 1,5% 8.384 3.866 1.670 1.193 1.045 836 638 502 464 313 PANDA 500 FORTWO UP! I10 SPARK AYGO ADAM KA C1 Registrations % Jan.14/13-12,2% 17,1% -7,4% 39,2% 31,0% -1,6% 4,2% N/A -23,7% -49,1% 18
2.6 Italy New Car Registrations by Segment Segment B Supermini Class Top 10 January 2014 Segment Market Share Seg. B Market Share % 11,0% 9,9% +3,9 +3,1 44,7 8,6% 6,7% 6,7% 6,1% 5,4% 4,7% 4,3% 3,6% 5.775 5.188 4.526 3.521 3.509 3.198 2.864 2.477 2.275 1.873 PUNTO YPSILON 500L CLIO C3 FIESTA POLO YARIS 208 2008 Registrations % Jan.14/13-7,9% 36,5% 45,2% 9,0% 12,5% 25,1% 0,7% 26,1% -6,1% N/A 19
2.6 Italy New Car Registrations by Segment Segment C Medium Class Top 10 January 2014 Segment Market Share Seg. C Market Share % 12,3% -1,7 23,5 6,2% 5,9% 5,5% 5,1% 5,0% 4,5% 4,4% 3,5% 3,5% 3.392 1.707 1.635 1.529 1.420 1.372 1.233 1.209 981 956 GOLF QASHQAI GIULIETTA A CLASS DUSTER A3 SPORTAGE FOCUS C-MAX IX35 Registrations % Jan.14/13 28,0% -28,4% -19,0% -6,2% 36,8% N/A 11,5% 6,6% -7,6% N/A 20
2.6 Italy New Car Registrations by Segment Segment D Upper Medium and Executive Class Top 10 January 2014 Segment Market Share Seg. D Market Share % -1,1 11,6 7,3% 6,7% 5,9% 5,6% 5,4% 5,4% 5,3% 5,2% 4,8% 4,0% 996 912 807 765 733 732 720 713 651 546 Q3 3 SERIES RANGE EVOQUE X1 A4 FREEMONT TIGUAN RAV4 PASSAT OCTAVIA Registrations % Jan.14/13-3,3% -9,3% -9,4% 0,0% -27,2% -37,5% -18,8% N/A 18,6% N/A 21
2.6 Italy New Car Registrations by Segment Segment E Luxury Class Top 10 January 2014 Segment Market Share 17,7% 16,9% Seg. E Market Share % 0,2 2,2 11,7% 9,2% 8,3% 7,3% 5,5% 2,8% 2,8% 2,4% 463 442 305 241 217 191 144 74 74 64 5 SERIES RANGE SPORT A6 GR.C.KEE E CLASS M CLASS CAYENNE X5 XF TOUAREG Registrations % Jan.14/13-4,7% 317,0% -1,6% 49,7% 35,6% -34,4% 2,1% N/A -28,8% N/A 22
2.6 Italy New Car Registrations by Segment Segment F Ultra Luxury Class Top 10 January 2014 Segment Market Share Seg. F Market Share % 0,1 0,4 24,3% 23,2% 13,2% 7,3% 6,4% 4,5% 3,6% 3,0% 2,5% 2,0% 107 102 58 32 28 20 16 13 11 9 GHIBLI 911 PANAMERA A8 S CLASS 458 F-TYPE 7 SERIES Q.TROPRTE 6 SERIES Registrations % Jan.14/13 N/A 9,7% 26,1% 52,4% 211,1% 150,0% N/A -31,6% N/A N/A 23
Automotive Report Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 Focus on Electric Vehicles Market (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 3.1 EV Market Overview in Italy 4 New Car Models launches in Italy 24
3.1 Focus on Electric Vehicles Market (Hybrid and Electric) EV Market Overview in Italy Breakdown New Car Registrations hybrid vs pure electric vehicles EV Registrations Trend - Volume, Delta YoY and EV Market Share, Jan. 2011-2014 - Delta YoY N/A -0,6% 126,7% 50,3% M.S. 0,3% 0,3% 0,9% 1,3% 463 460 1.043 1.568 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hybrid and Pure Electric Vehicles Trend - Volume Jan. 2011-2014 - Electric Hybrid 1.043 1.568 1.534 1.010 463 460 454 403 9 57 33 34 2011 2012 2013 2014 Hybrid Vehicles TOP 5 Jan. 2014 Pure Electric Vehicles TOP 5 Jan. 2014 YARIS 686 LEAF 10 AURIS 647 ZOE 8 PRIUS 39 MODEL S 6 IS 36 I3 4 3008 32 FORTWO 3 25
Automotive Report Agenda 1 Europe 2 Italy 3 Focus on Electric Vehicles Market (Hybrid and Pure Electric) 4 New Car Models launches in Italy 4.1 New Cars Models by Segment - Roadmap 2014 26
4.1 New Cars Model launches in Italy Roadmap 2014 New Cars Models by Segment A Utility/City Class and B Supermini Class Segments January - March April - June July - September October December «A» Segment I10 Gpl C1 108 e-up! Adam Rocks Alto + Twingo Panda Cross fortwo Aygo Adam L0 3 cilindri «B» Segment EcoSport Mini Mokka Gpl Mito QV 208 1.2 THP 110 CV Ypsilon Polo DS3 500X forfour i20 Corsa B-Suv Mini 5 porte Meriva Cross Polo Yaris Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Launch Done Launch Anticipated Launch Postponed to 2015 Source: Quattroruote (Jan.2014); Arthur D. Little Analysis 27
4.1 New Cars Model launches in Italy Roadmap 2014 New Cars Models by Segment C Medium Class and D Upper Medium Class Segments «C» Segment January - March April - June July - September October December A3 Cabrio Serie 2 Mégane Verso 1.6 diesel RCZ R GLA Leon ST Leon Cupra A3 g-tron Qashqai S3 Sedan XV 3008 5008 Golf R Duster Sportage Gpl Korando Yeti Leon Metano Giulietta QV Civic Tourer Sportage Golf-e Soul Golf Sportsvan Golf Metano 308 Blue HDI S1 S3 Cabrio GLA 45 AMG Civic Leon 4x4 308 SW CR-V C-Max Energi Cherokee X-Trail Octavia Scout Countryman Scirocco C4 Cactus Focus Active Tourer Soul EV A3 e-tron Venga B Class Jetta Golf Ibrida plug-in «D» Segment C Class Grand Santa Fe Serie 4 Cabrio WRX STi M3 X3 Serie 4 GC C Wagon X4 RC Coupé 4C Cabrio Freemont Cross Outlander PEHV Macan Camaro M4 508 M4 Cabrio Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Launch Done Launch Anticipated Launch Postponed to 2015 Source: Quattroruote (Jan.2014); Arthur D. Little Analysis 28
4.1 New Cars Model launches in Italy Roadmap 2014 New Cars Models by Segment E Luxury Class and F Ultra Luxury Class Segments January - March April - June July - September October December «E» Segment Range Hybrid Genesis X6 Touareg Corvette Sting Ray Range Rover LWb Sport Hybrid Corvette Cabrio Range Rover Sport RS LF-NX CLS ELR Escalade CTS Sedan Cayenne «F» Segment 918 Spyder Panamera Turbo S 458 Special Huracan 911 Targa California Turbo Ghost Quattroporte VG Diesel i8 S Coupé S8 Continental GT Continental GTC 911 GT3 RS F-type Coupé S 500 Hy plug-in S 300 Hy Blue Tec Commercial Launch of New Model Facelift / Technical Update Launch Done Launch Anticipated Launch Postponed to 2015 Source: Quattroruote (Jan.2014); Arthur D. Little Analysis 29