Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products Jana VALEČKOVÁ, VŠB-TU Ostrava Abstract Th sz of th pharmacutcal markt and pharmacutcal sals s ncrasng constantly. Th markt s floodd wth nw drugs and prparatons. Thr s an ncrasng amount of advrtsng (.g. tlvson and prnt) for ths mdcamnts. Ths papr analyss th rlatonshp btwn (1) advrtsmnt awarnss and th purchas of mdcamnts and (2) notcng advrtsng laflts n a pharmacy and th purchas of mdcamnts. Fv groups of drugs ar montord, namly vtamns and mnrals, mmunty support mdcns, pankllrs, pharmacutcal cosmtcs and mdcns to support th nrvous systm. Analyss s carrd out usng logstc rgrsson mthods to dtrmn th odds rato of purchas and purchas probablty. Th coffcnts ar stmatd usng th maxmum lklhood mthod. Th contrbuton nvolvs lstng thos pharmacutcal products whos purchas s nfluncd by advrtsng. W found rlatonshps btwn purchas and advrtsmnt awarnss (prnt and tlvson) for vtamns and mnrals, pankllrs and pharmacutcal cosmtcs, and rlatonshps btwn purchas and th prcpton of laflts for vtamns and mnrals, pharmacutcal cosmtcs and mmunty support mdcns. Kywords Advrtsng, logstc rgrsson, marktng rsarch, odds rato, ovr-th-countr products, pharmacutcal markt, purchas probablty JEL Classfcaton: M31, M37 Dpartmnt of Marktng and Busnss, Faculty of Economcs, VŠB-Tchncal Unvrsty of Ostrava, Sokolská 33, 701 21 Ostrava, Czch Rpublc. jana.valckova@vsb.cz Th papr has bn supportd by th SGS rsarch projct SP2011/38 of VSB-TU Ostrava. 1. Introducton Currntly, thr s a larg pharmacutcal markt boom and xpanson of pharmacutcal products. Halts IMS prdcts that th pharmacutcal markt wll grow by 5-8% annually to 2014 and that th sal of pharmacutcal products wll grow by around 4% to 6% annually (Kročk, 2010). Th man aras of ntrst for pharmacutcal manufacturrs ar product qualty, customr satsfacton and loyalty. Pharmacutcal compans try to dntfy thr customrs, dfn th targt group and manag marktng actvts, and gan customr loyalty (Sznbach t al., 1997). Whn th markt s growng, marktng actvts n conncton wth th dvlopmnt of nw products or upgrad of xstng ons grow n mportanc, whl nw marktng communcaton concpts (advrtsng) and nw dstrbuton channls ar also cratd. Ths actvts ar lnkd to th analyss of customrs and montorng of th dcson-makng procsss for ovrth-countr drugs, supplmnts and othr pharmacutcal products. It s ncssary to dntfy th factors that nflunc th purchas dcson such as prsonal charactrstcs, customr xprnc, atttud to products, halth and th rol of th nfluncr (doctor, pharmacst and famly), nd for purchas, avalablty 2012 Publshd by VŠB-TU Ostrava. All rghts rsrvd. ER-CEREI, Volum 15: 177 189 (2012). ISSN 1212-3951 do: 10.7327/cr.2012.06.04
178 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012 of mdcamnts, mdcamnts advrtsng and prcs of mdcns. Advrtsng xpndtur s ncrasng vry yar. Th drct-to-customr spndng actvty of US pharmacutcal manufacturrs ncrasd from 266 mllon dollars n 1994 to 2,467 mllon dollars n 2000. In 2000, 36.4% was spnt on prnt and othr mda and 63.6% on tlvson advrtsng (Vogl t al., 2003). Manufacturrs oftn show two typs of advrtsng: (1) hlp-skng advrtsmnts (dsas dscrpton but not tratmnt dscrpton) and (2) rmndr advrtsmnts (product nam, wthout ndcaton) (Vogl t al., 2003). Ths papr dntfs th rlatonshp btwn th followng varabls: (1) th purchas of prparaton (drugs) and awarnss of rlvant advrtsng and (2) th purchas of prparaton (drugs) and notcng advrtsng laflts n a pharmacy. It asssss whthr thr s a rlatonshp btwn purchasng and advrtsng and quantfs th strngth of ths rlatonshp. Th dpndnt varabl (purchas of drugs n both cass) s bnary, and th analyss s carrd out usng logstc rgrsson. Th papr analyss fv catgors of drugs, namly vtamns and mnrals, mmunty support mdcns, pankllrs, pharmacutcal cosmtcs and mdcns to support th nrvous systm. Scton 2 dscrbs th thortcal background of purchasng dcsons and th mpact of advrtsng on purchas, whl Scton 3 prsnts th thortcal background of logstc rgrsson analyss. Scton 4 dscrbs th mthodology of data collcton and analyss. Th rsults ar summarsd n Scton 5. 2. Purchasng dcsons and mpact of advrtsng Customr bhavour rflcts th totalty of thr dcsons rgardng goods, srvcs, actvts and das, namly th acquston, consumpton and dsposal of goods or srvcs (Hoyr and MacInns, 2007). Kotlr (2003) stats that customr bhavour s nfluncd by cultural, socal and prsonal factors. Cultural factors ar prsntd as th largst and broadst group and thy nclud thncty, rlgon, racal group and socal class. Socal factors comprs famly, rfrnc groups, socal rol and poston n socty. Prsonal factors nclud ag, occupaton and lfstyl. Thr ar two approachs to th analyss of customrs: quanttatv and qualtatv. Qualtatv analyss may b prformd by th black box modl, whch s basd on stmulus and rspons. Advrtsng can b on of th stmul. A marktr looks for th rasons why a customr rspondd. Anothr qualtatv analyss s basd on th dcson-makng procss, whch ncluds (1) rcognsng th problm, (2) sarchng for nformaton, (3) valuatng altrnatvs, (4) purchas dcson and (5) bhavour aftr purchas (Spáčl, 2003). Customr bhavour s an ongong procss. Ths procss dos not nd wth purchas and paymnt. It nvolvs th handlng of products, rpat purchass and satsfd or unsatsfd bhavour (Solomon t al., 2006). Customr bhavour nvolvs many dffrnt actors. Each of thm has a dffrnt rol. Each rol may b prformd by on prson or on prson can prform many rols. Th purchasr and usr of a product may not b th sam prson. Othr rols nclud nformant, dcdr and nfluncr (Solomon t al., 2006). Customr bhavour comprss fv lmnts (Fgur 1). Each of ths lmnts nfluncs marktng stratgs and tactcs. In modls of customr bhavour, many qustons dscrb bhavour accuratly, such as what a customr buys and whn and whr a customr buys t. Th actors n a dcson-makng procss hav many rols: nformaton gathrr, nfluncr, dcdr, purchasr and usr. Th dcsonmakng procss taks plac at a crtan tm. Advrtsng can play an mportant rol n a dcson-makng procss, spcally nformng and nfluncng. Advrtsng nforms about nw and xstng mdcamnts, and an advrtsmnt may hav dffrnt forms such as tlvson and rado advrtsng, advrtsng on th Intrnt, n pharmacs or n magazns. Ths s vald for th mdcamnts frly avalabl. In 1999, pharmacutcal compans spnt 1.8 bllon dollars on drct-to-consumr advrtsng compard wth lss than 300 mllon dollars n 1994 (Woloshn t al., 2001). US rsarch on prscrpton drugs has shown that customrs ar ncrasngly xposd to drct-to-consumr advrtsmnts. Th rsults show that doctors ar ncrasngly confrontd wth patnts who ask qustons or who mak suggstons basd on ths advrtsmnts (Woloshn t al., 2001). 3. Thortcal background of logstc rgrsson analyss Logstc rgrsson analyss s a mathmatcal modllng approach to dscrb th rlatonshps btwn svral ndpndnt varabls and a dchotomous dpndnt varabl. Th dpndnt varabl can tak two valus: zro (.g., dssatsfacton, gnoranc of brand, product s not purchasd) or 1 (.g., satsfacton, brand awarnss, purchas of product). Th modl can thus prdct purchas probablty (Klnbaum and Kln, 2010).
Th totalty of dcsons About th consumpton Of an offrng By dcson-makng unts Ovr tm J. Valčková Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products 179 Whthr What Why How Whn Whr Acquston Usag Dsposton Products Srvcs Actvts Idas Informaton gathrr Influncr Dcdr r Usr Hours Days Wks Months Yars How much/ How oftn/ How long Fgur 1 Fv lmnts that nflunc customr bhavour Sourc: Hoyr and Macnns (2007) 3.1 Formulaton of th modl Consdr a bnary varabl Y charactrsng th postv and ngatv rspons to th -th rspondnt for 1,..., N, whr N s th numbr of rspondnts. Each rspondnt s charactrsd by th vctor x 1, x, x,..., x contanng K lmnts 1 2 K rspondnt (Pcáková, 2007). Th lklhood of a postv rspons of th -th P P Y 1 on th bass of ts charactrstc vctor F βx,, whch s ncrasng and has a doman of dfnton, and a rang 0,1, so t s accptd that th x can b xprssd as functon F 0 a F 1 lklhood functon of a rspons can b wrttn as P Fβx,, (1) whr β s vctor of paramtrs 0, 1,..., K. Ths proprts ar th cumulatv dstrbuton functon of th logstc dstrbuton n th shap βx P PY 1 F βx,, (2) 1 βx whch s a functon of th probablty of th answr. Th probablty of a ngatv rspons s 1 P. (Hosmr and Lmshow, 2000). Th dfnton of th prcntag probablty of postv and ngatv rsponss (odds) s n th form (Pcáková, 2007) PY 1 1 PY0 βx. (3) Th odds rato for th dchotomous varabl ( x taks valus 0 or 1) s (Hlb, 2009) xj 1 1 xj 1 OR1, 0 xp j. xj 0 1 xj 0 3.2 An stmat of modl paramtrs j (4) Unknown paramtr β s stmatd usng th mthod of maxmum lklhood. Ths mthod conssts of fndng a lklhood functon, whch s maxmsd aftr that. Th lklhood of a postv answr from th -th rspondnt, whch s charactrsd by th vctor x, s thn PY 1 x x, (5) and th lklhood of a ngatv rspons s 1 x. Th combnd probablty of postv and ngatv rsponss can b wrttn thn as (Hosmr and Lmshow, 2000) Y 1 Y PY x x 1 x. (6) If ach obsrvaton s ndpndnt, thn th lklhood functon s dfnd as th rsult of quaton (6) for all rspondnts. Paramtrs usng th maxmum lklhood mthod ar obtand by maxmsng th logarthm of th lklhood functon n th form (Hosmr and Lmshow, 2000) Lβ ln lβ N (7) Y ln x 1Y ln 1 x. 1
180 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012 4. Analyss of th nflunc of advrtsng on purchasng Th followng subsctons dscrb th mthodology of data collcton through prmary rsarch and th analyss of varous catgors of pharmacutcal products. 4.1 Data collcton mthodology Th data usd n th modl wr collctd through marktng rsarch. Data wr obtand from wrttn qustonnars n th Morava rgon n Dcmbr 2010 usng th snowball mthod, a non-rprsntatv samplng tchnqu. A group of rspondnts approachd othr rspondnts. Th condton of plac of rsdnc (Morava rgon) and ag (mor than 18 yars old) wr fulflld for all rspondnts. Th sz of th sampl was 289 rspondnts. Th dstrbuton of advrtsmnt awarnss (ys or no) can b sn n Tabl 1 n th appndx. Ths s catgorsd accordng to groups of mdcamnts. Tabl 1 shows th numbr of rspondnts who purchasd (1) vtamns and mnrals, (2) mmunty support mdcns, (3) pankllrs, (4) pharmacutcal cosmtcs or (5) mdcns to support th nrvous systm. Th analyss was prformd usng th Stata statstcal program. Th dstrbuton of rspondnts' answrs to th laflts n pharmacs can b sn n Tabl 2 n th appndx. Th am of ths quston was to ascrtan whthr rspondnts obsrv th advrtsng laflts and brochurs. Thr wr thr optons: rspondnts gnor th laflts; rspondnts obsrv th laflts, but ar not ntrstd n thm; and rspondnts obsrv th laflts and ar ntrstd n thm. Ths customr groups ar trmd gnorrs, unntrstd customrs and ntrstd customrs hraftr. Ths tabl s also classfd accordng to groups of mdcamnts and groupd accordng to th sam fv purchas catgors. In th followng scton, fv groups of drugs ar analysd to assss whthr th rlatonshp btwn advrtsmnt awarnss (prnt and tlvson) and th purchas of drugs s sgnfcant. W dfn th chanc of purchasng whn a customr notcs th advrtsmnt (or not). W dtrmn th dgr of th probablty of purchas whn a customr notc an advrtsmnt and not. Although th man ponts of th analyss ar th stmaton of th logstc rgrsson modls, furthr nformaton obtand from th prmary rsarch (n Dcmbr 2010) s also lstd n th analyss. Such nformaton dals wth th rasons for buyng mdcamnts (purchas as prvnton and purchas aftr th outbrak of dsas). Tstng was carrd out at th 5% sgnfcanc lvl. Th dpndnt varabl was th purchas of mdcamnts (1 = ys; 0 = no). Th frst ndpndnt varabl was advrtsmnt awarnss (1 = ys; 0 = no) and th scond ndpndnt varabl was ntrst n laflts and brochurs of pharmacutcal products (1 = gnor; 2 = obsrv, not ntrstd n; 3 = obsrv, ntrstd n). Confrmaton or rjcton of th sgnfcanc of th modl was dtrmnd by th P- valu, whch can b obtand from th stmatd rgrsson modl or through th us of MS Offc vyp FDIST F, df, df, (Zmškal, Excl functons ESS RSS 2004). Subsctons 3.2 to 3.6 prsnt th stmatd modls for th catgors of pharmacutcal products. In ach catgory, thr ar two stmatons: th rlatonshp among (1) advrtsmnt awarnss and th purchas of mdcamnts and (2) notcng th advrtsng laflts n th pharmacy and th purchas of mdcamnts. Thr ar thus 10 stmatd modls. 4.2 Vtamns and mnrals Wthn th catgory vtamns and mnrals two aspcts has bn analysd, advrtsmnt awarnss and laflts. Advrtsmnt awarnss Th rsults of th frst analyss ar prsntd n Fgur 2. Customrs who ar not xposd to advrtsmnts ar th rfrnc group. Rvtamny (n Fgur 2) ncluds customrs who notcd advrtsng for vtamns and mnrals. A low R 2 valu n th logstc rgrsson s th norm, whch prsnts a problm whn rportng thr valus to an audnc accustomd to sng lnar rgrsson valus. It may b hlpful as a statstcal tool to valuat a comptng modl (Hosmr and Lmshow, 2000). In th logstc modl, t s not approprat to us a classc R 2, so w usd psudo R 2 nstad. Thr ar svral ways to calculat th psudo R 2 (Hlb, 2009). W fnd that th rlatonshp btwn th purchas and awarnss of advrtsmnts for vtamns and mnrals s sgnfcant at th 5% lvl. Th purchas of vtamns and mnrals s dpndnt on advrtsmnts (prnt or tlvson). Thus, advrtsng s an mportant factor on purchas. Th rsult of th analyss shows an odds rato of 2.151. Ths s prsntd n Fgur 3. Th odds rato s th rato of th odds of purchasng whn customrs ar xposd and not xposd to advrtsng. Hr, th odds rato s gratr than 1, so th odds of purchas ar gratr whn customrs ar awar of th advrtsng. Th odds of purchasng vtamns and mnrals whn customrs ar xposd (not xposd) to advrtsng ar 2.868 (1.334). Th probablty of purchas s 0.742 n th frst cas and 0.571 n th scond cas. Ths rsults ar basd on Formula 2 n Chaptr 3.1.
J. Valčková Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products 181 LR ch2(1) = 7.84 Prob > ch2 = 0.0051 Log lklhood = -174.52602 Psudo R2 = 0.0220 vtamny Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rvtamny.7659065.272136 2.81 0.005.2325298 1.299283 _cons.2876821.2204793 1.30 0.192 -.1444494.7198135 Fgur 2 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for vtamns and mnrals (advrtsmnt awarnss) LR ch2(1) = 7.84 Prob > ch2 = 0.0051 Log lklhood = -174.52602 Psudo R2 = 0.0220 vtamny Odds Rato Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rvtamny 2.150943.5853491 2.81 0.005 1.261788 3.666668 Fgur 3 Odds rato for vtamns and mnrals (advrtsmnt awarnss) Th quaton of th stmatd modl n ths cas s as follows: 0.28768210.7659065 x P PY 1, (8) 0.28768210.7659065 x 1 whr P s th probablty of purchasng vtamns and mnrals, = 1,, N, whr N s th numbr of rspondnts. If th customr s xposd to advrtsng, thn x s 1 and f 0 othrws. Advrtsng laflts n pharmacy Fgur 4 prsnts th stmaton of th logstc rgrsson modl for vtamns and mnrals. Ignorrs ar th rfrnc group. Iltak_2 (n Fgur 4) mans unntrstd customrs and Iltak_3 mans ntrstd customrs. In ths cas, t s apparnt that th ndpndnt varabls ar statstcally sgnfcant. Th purchas of vtamns and mnrals s dpndnt on th atttud to laflts n th pharmacy. Th P-valus of ndpndnt varabls ar lss than 0.05. Th odds of purchasng vtamns and mnrals by unntrstd customrs ar 3.237, th odds of purchasng vtamns and mnrals by ntrstd customrs ar 15.393, and th odds of th purchass by gnorrs ar 1.079. Th odds ar gratr whn customrs ar ntrstd n th laflts. Ths s confrmd by th purchas probablts. Th purchas probablty for ntrstd customrs s 0.939. Th purchas probablty for unntrstd customrs s 0.764. Th purchas probablty for gnorrs s 0.519. If ntrst n th laflt ncrass, thn th purchas probablty of vtamn and mnrals ncrass too. Th odds rato s gvn by Formula 4 n Chaptr 3.1 and th purchas probablty s basd on Formula 2 lstd n Chaptr 3.1. Th odds rato quals 3.25. Ths mans that th odds of th purchas ar 3.25 tms largr whn customrs obsrv th laflts (lstd n Fgur 5). Th sgnfcant nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of vtamns and mnrals s provn by th analyss. If customrs notc th advrtsng mssags n prnt or on tlvson, th purchas probablty of ths mdcaton catgory s sgnfcantly ncrasd. Th purchas probablty s gratr by 0.17. Th rlatonshp btwn th advrtsng laflts n th pharmacy and purchas of mdcamnts s also dmonstratd. If customrs ar ntrstd n th laflts strongly, thn th purchas probablty s 0.42 largr than whn thy ar not. Th rsults of th prmary rsarch also show that 75% of usrs buy vtamns and mnrals bfor th dsas occurs. Bcaus most customrs buy ths mdcamnts bforhand, thy hav tm to gt nformaton from many sourcs at th bgnnng of th dcson-makng procss. Th nformaton coms from ntrnal sourcs (own xprnc) or xtrnal sourcs. Thy can obtan nformaton about mdcamnts from own xprnc, famly, frnds, doctors, pharmacsts or dscusson forums on th Intrnt. Marktng communcaton (spcfcally advrtsng) s also an mportant sourc of nformaton. Customrs look for mor nformaton n addton to th abov lstd sourcs bfor th outbrak of th dsas (probably n wntr months). Advrtsmnts n prnt or on tlvson ar an mportant sourc of such nformaton. Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of vtamns and mnrals s shown abov. Th rsarch rsults do not show th ntnsty lvl of nformaton rsourcs on a customr s dcson. Thr s dntfd a rlatonshp btwn advrtsng mssag and purchas. Th quaton of th stmatd modl n ths cas s as follows: 0.0741081.97932 x 2.666732 x 1 2 P PY 1, 0.0741081.97932 x1 2.666732 x x2 1 (9)
182 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012 LR ch2(2) = 30.32 Prob > ch2 = 0.0000 Log lklhood = -163.28607 Psudo R2 = 0.0850 vtamny Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] _Iltak_2 1.097932.2729632 4.02 0.000.5629338 1.63293 _Iltak_3 2.666732.7545502 3.53 0.000 1.187841 4.145623 _cons.074108.1925822 0.38 0.700 -.3033462.4515622 Fgur 4 Estmaton of th logstc rgrsson for vtamns and mnrals (laflts n pharmacy) LR ch2(1) = 29.99 Prob > ch2 = 0.0000 Log lklhood = -163.45154 Psudo R2 = 0.0840 vtamny Odds Rato Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] ltak 3.254506.7531758 5.10 0.000 2.067737 5.122416 Fgur 5 Odds ratos for vtamns and mnrals (laflts n pharmacy) whr P s th probablty of th purchas of vtamns and mnrals. If th customr gnors th laflts, thn x1 0 and x2 0. If th customr obsrvs th laflts but s not ntrstd n thm, thn x 1 1 and x If th customr obsrvs th laflts and s 2 0. ntrstd n thm, thn x 0 and x2 1. 1 Th bst stmatd modl s rlatd to th catgory vtamns and mnrals. Ths s ndcatd by Psudo R 2, whch s low. Ths s hlpful as a statstc for valuatng a comptng modl. Th bst qualty stmaton s th modl for vtamns and mnrals. Th actual rsults ar llustratd n th fgurs abov. 4.3 Immunty support mdcns Also wthn th scond catgory, th advrtsmnt awarnss as wll as th laflts s analysd. Advrtsmnt awarnss Fgur 6 shows th stmaton of th logstc rgrsson modl for ths group of mdcamnts. Customrs who ar not xposd to advrtsng ar th rfrnc group. Rmunta (n Fgur 6) mans customrs who hav notcd th advrtsng for mmunty support mdcns. It s ncssary to dtrmn whthr th rlatonshp btwn th two varabls s statstcally sgnfcant. Th P-valu for th coffcnt s 0.069. Tstng s carrd out at th 5% sgnfcanc lvl. Th purchas of mmunty support mdcns s not dpndnt on advrtsmnt awarnss (prnt or tlvson). Th concluson s that advrtsmnt awarnss s not an mportant factor n th purchas of mmunty support mdcns. Advrtsng laflts n pharmacy Th rlaton btwn purchas and ntrst n laflts s tstd n th followng part. Ignorrs ar th rfrnc group. Iltak_2 (n Fgur 7) mans unntrstd customrs and Iltak_3 mans ntrstd customrs. Dpndnc s dntfd basd on statstcal tstng carrd out at th 5% sgnfcanc lvl. Thus, th coffcnts ar statstcally sgnfcant. Th P-valu for th ndpndnt varabl s lss than 0.05 (Fgur 7). Thr s statstcal sgnfcanc btwn th purchas of mmunty support mdcns and ntrst n laflts n a pharmacy. Th odds of purchasng mmunty support mdcns for ntrstd customrs ar 2.3, th odds of purchasng mmunty support mdcns for unntrstd customrs ar 1.278 and th odds of th purchass for gnorrs ar 0.686. Th odds ar gratr whn customrs ar ntrstd n th laflts. Th purchas probablty for ntrstd customrs s 0.697. Th purchas probablty for unntrstd customrs s 0.561. Th purchas probablty for gnorrs s 0.407. If ntrst n th laflts ncrass, thn th purchas probablty of mmunty support mdcns ncrass, too. Th purchas probablty s basd on Formula 2 lstd n Chaptr 3.1. Th odds rato s 1.839. Ths mans that th odds of purchas ar 1.839 tms largr whn customrs obsrv th laflts (lstd n Fgur 8). Th odds rato n ths product catgory s lss than n th prvous catgory (vtamns and mnrals). Th odds rato s gvn by Formula 4 n Chaptr 3.1. Th purchas probablty of mmunty support mdcns ncrass whn ntrst n prnt advrtsng n pharmacs ncrass, too. Ths clam s statstcally provn. Immunty support mdcns am to prvnt. Thus, customrs would probably us (or buy) ths group of drugs bfor th outbrak of dsas. Th rsarch showd that 65% of usrs buy ths mdcamnts bfor th outbrak of dsas. Customrs mak rsrvs of ths mdcamnts as wth vtamns and mnrals. Immunty support mdcns and vtamns
J. Valčková Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products 183 LR ch2(1) = 3.33 Prob > ch2 = 0.0681 Log lklhood = -198.44598 Psudo R2 = 0.0083 munta Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rmunta.4308191.2368325 1.82 0.069 -.033364.8950021 _cons -.1391128.16707-0.83 0.405 -.466564.1883384 Fgur 6 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for mmunty support mdcns (advrtsmnt awarnss) LR ch2(2) = 10.76 Prob > ch2 = 0.0046 Log lklhood = -194.72832 Psudo R2 = 0.0269 munta Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] _Iltak_2.6191468.256486 2.41 0.016.1164434 1.12185 _Iltak_3 1.207603.4264159 2.83 0.005.3718427 2.043362 _cons -.3746934.1958374-1.91 0.056 -.7585276.0091407 Fgur 7 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for mmunty support mdcns (laflts n pharmacy) LR ch2(1) = 10.76 Prob > ch2 = 0.0010 Log lklhood = -194.72993 Psudo R2 = 0.0269 munta Odds Rato Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] ltak 1.839236.3492319 3.21 0.001 1.267688 2.668472 Fgur 8 Odds rato for mmunty support mdcns (laflts n pharmacy) and mnrals can b dntcal n som cass. Th rasons for consumpton may b th sam. Ths catgors may show smlar rsults but th ffct of th advrtsng mssag on th purchas of mmunty support mdcns has not bn provn. Th ffct of nformaton laflts on th purchas of mmunty support mdcns s provn. Ths ffct s sgnfcantly hghr n th cas of vtamns and mnrals. Immunty support mdcns ar sasonal purchass. Gratr dmand and a gratr concntraton of ntrst ar probably hghr at th nd of th yar and th bgnnng of a nw on (.. wntr). Dmand and ntrst ar probably lowr n summr. A customr`s ntrst n nformaton wll ncras durng ths prod. Ths s a good tm for prnt advrtsng n pharmacs bcaus nflunc has bn provn. Th quaton of th stmatd modl n ths cas s as follows: 0.3746934 0.6191468 x 1.207603 x 1 2 P PY 1,(10) 0.3746934 0.6191468 x1 1.207603 x x2 1 whr P s th probablty of th purchas of mmunty support mdcns, smlar to Formula 9. 4.4 Pankllrs Th sam approach as abov s usd to analys also th pankllrs catgory. Advrtsmnt awarnss Fgur 9 shows th stmaton of th logstc rgrsson modl for pankllrs. Customrs who ar not xposd to advrtsng ar th rfrnc group. Rbolst (n Fgur 9) mans customrs who hav notcd th advrtsmnts for pankllrs. Th coffcnts ar stmatd usng th maxmum lklhood mthod. Th coffcnts and constants ar statstcally sgnfcant; th P-valu for coffcnts s 0.041 (0.041<0.05). Thrfor, advrtsmnt awarnss s an mportant factor n th purchas of pankllrs. Th odds ratos ar lstd n Fgur 10. Th odds of purchas whn customrs ar awar of th advrtsmnt ar 4.568 and th odds of purchas whn thy ar not awar ar gvn by a constant valu xp(0.8994836) = 2.458. Th purchas probablty n th frst cas s 0.82 and that n th scond cas s 0.711. Th rsults ar basd on th formulas n Chaptr 3 (Formulas 2 and 4). Th quaton of th stmatd modl n ths cas s as follows: 0.8994836 0.6194972x P PY 1, 0.8994836 0.6194972x 1 (11) whr P s th probablty of th purchas of pankllrs, as n Formula 8.
184 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012 LR ch2(1) = 4.08 Prob > ch2 = 0.0433 Log lklhood = -146.90141 Psudo R2 = 0.0137 bolst Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rbolst.6194972.3025888 2.05 0.041.026434 1.21256 _cons.8994836.242107 3.72 0.000.4249625 1.374005 Fgur 9 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for pankllrs (advrtsmnt awarnss) LR ch2(1) = 4.08 Prob > ch2 = 0.0433 Log lklhood = -146.90141 Psudo R2 = 0.0137 bolst Odds Rato Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rbolst 1.857994.5622081 2.05 0.041 1.026786 3.362082 Fgur 10 Odds rato for pankllrs (advrtsmnt awarnss) LR ch2(2) = 3.46 Prob > ch2 = 0.1775 Log lklhood = -147.21445 Psudo R2 = 0.0116 bolst Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] _Iltak_2.3620055.3018284 1.20 0.230 -.2295673.9535784 _Iltak_3.9311793.576799 1.61 0.106 -.1993259 2.061685 _cons 1.049822.2195775 4.78 0.000.6194581 1.480186 Fgur 11 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for pankllrs (laflts n pharmacy) LR ch2(1) = 14.70 Prob > ch2 = 0.0001 Log lklhood = -192.9564 Psudo R2 = 0.0367 kosmtka Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rkosmtka.9620279.2557622 3.76 0.000.4607433 1.463313 _cons -.3126834.1480456-2.11 0.035 -.6028473 -.0225194 Fgur 12 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for pharmacutcal cosmtcs (advrtsmnt awarnss) Advrtsng laflts n pharmacy Ignorrs ar th rfrnc group. Iltak_2 (n Fgur 11) mans unntrstd customrs and Iltak_3 mans ntrstd customrs. Th P-valus for both coffcnts ar gratr than 0.05 at th 5% sgnfcanc lvl. Th stmaton rsults ar prsntd n Fgur 11. Th nformaton brochurs and laflts locatd n pharmacs ar not dcsv for th purchas of ths catgory of pharmacutcal products. Pankllrs ar purchasd by consumrs f thy or thr frnds and famly suffr panful problms (occasonally or rgularly). Consumrs buy drugs on a rgular bass f thy know thr problms. Ths mdcamnts can b purchasd for random pan or n th cas of srous halth complcatons. In th scond cas, mdcamnts ar usually prscrbd by a physcan. Pankllrs solv problms that hav dvlopd or wll dvlop n th nar futur. In total, 44% of usrs buy pankllrs bfor th dsas occurs as prvnton. Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pankllrs has bn shown. Advrtsng s lkly to affct all groups of usrs who suffr from mnor halth problms and who know that ths problms wll occur. 4.5 Pharmacutcal cosmtcs Th pharmacutcal cosmtcs s anothr group. Thr ar analyzs of advrtsmnt awarnss and advrtsng laflts n pharmacy. Advrtsmnt awarnss Fgur 12 shows th stmaton of th logstc rgrsson modl for pharmacutcal cosmtcs. Customrs who ar not xposd to advrtsng ar th rfrnc group. Rkosmtka (n Fgur 12) mans customrs who notcd th advrtsng for pharmacutcal cosmtcs. Th P-valu s lss than 0.05, mplyng that advrtsmnt awarnss, n prnt or on tlvson, s
J. Valčková Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products 185 an mportant factor for purchas. Th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs s thus dpndnt on sng advrtsmnts (prnt or tlvson). Othr factors ar not analysd. Pharmacutcal cosmtcs ar slghtly dffrnt n rlaton to othr mdcamnts. Som customrs buy ths products bcaus thy provd a sns of hghr valus than th cosmtcs sold n chmst chans. Halth s not th only rason for th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs. Th nd to tst qualty cosmtcs may b a rason for purchas. Informaton about th xstnc of ths product s oftn obtand from advrtsng. Th odds rato for th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs s prsntd n Fgur 13. Th odds rato s 2.617. Ths numbr mans that th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs s 2.617 tms gratr whn customrs ar awar of th advrtsmnt than whn thy ar not. Th odds of purchas whn customrs ar awar of th advrtsmnt ar 1.914 and th odds of purchasng whn customrs ar not awar ar 0.731. Th purchas probablty n th frst cas s 0.657 and that n th scond cas s 0.422. Th odds rato s gvn by Formula 4 n Chaptr 3.1 and th purchas probablty s basd on Formula 2 lstd n Chaptr 3.1. Th quaton of th stmatd modl n ths cas s as follows: 0.3126834 0.9620279 x P PY 1, (12) 0.3126834 0.9620279 x 1 whr P s th probablty of th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs, as n Formula 8. Advrtsng laflts n pharmacy Th stmaton of th logstc rgrsson modl for th cosmtcs from pharmacs s lstd n Fgur 14. Ignorrs ar th rfrnc group. Iltak_2 (n Fgur 14) mans unntrstd customrs and Iltak_3 mans ntrstd customrs. Th valus of coffcnts and constants follows. It s ncssary to dtrmn whthr thr s a rlatonshp btwn th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs and ntrst n laflts n pharmacs. Ths rlatonshp s confrmd by th P-valu, whch for th frst coffcnt s statstcally sgnfcant (unntrstd customrs). Th P-valu of th scond coffcnt s not statstcally sgnfcant (ntrstd customrs). It s thus ncssary to combn ths catgors to mak a nw stmaton for th logstc rgrsson. Th rfrnc varabl s gnorrs. Ignorrs and ntrstd customrs n th qustonnar ar mrgd. Th rsults of th nw stmaton ar prsntd n Fgur 15. Th P-valu s lss than 0.05, and thus th coffcnt s statstcally sgnfcant. Fgur 16 shows th odds rato (Formula 4, Chaptr 3.1) of th purchas of ths catgory of products. It quals 1.672. Ths product catgory s rcodd. In th frst group, thr ar gnorrs and ntrstd customrs, and n th scond group ar unntrstd customrs. Th odds of purchass n th frst group ar 0.667, and th purchas probablty s 0.44. Th odds of purchass n th scond group ar 1.135, and th purchas probablty s 0.568. Th purchas probablty s basd on Formula 2 lstd n Chaptr 3.1. s nfluncd by prnt and tlvson advrtsng, whch has bn statstcally provn. A sgnfcant nflunc s confrmd but th frst stp (on of nd) n th buyng procss can b dffrnt. Dffrnt customrs hav dffrnt nds. Th lmnaton of skn problms can b th frst rason for purchasng pharmacutcal cosmtcs; ths problms ar lmnatd aftr thr occurrnc. A total of 46% of usrs buy pharmacutcal cosmtcs aftr dsas occurs. If customrs buy pharmacutcal cosmtcs prvntvly, thn advrtsng on tlvson, n magazns or n pharmacs may play an mportant rol. Advrtsng wll b a grat sourc of nformaton n th buyng procss. Ths s vrfd by own tstng. Th rang of pharmacutcal cosmtcs and ntnsty of advrtsng campagns hav bn growng rcntly. Thr ar products such as shampoos, fac and body crams, showr gls, dcoratv cosmtcs and sun cram n pharmacs. Pharmacutcal cosmtcs can rplac products from drugstor chans. Usrs ar mostly womn. Th look of qualty cosmtcs wth mdcnal ffcts can b a rason to buy ths products at pharmacs rathr than n drugstor chans. Informaton s oftn communcatd n advrtsng campagns. Th mpact of ths campagns n ths group of pharmacutcal products s du to th charactrstcs of th products lstd abov. Ths fact has bn confrmd by statstcal tstng. Thus, th sgnfcant nflunc of advrtsng on purchas s confrmd. Th quaton of th stmatd modl n ths cas s as follows: 0.2423135 0.5142472 x P PY 1, (13) 0.2423135 0.5142472 x 1 whr P s th probablty of th purchas of pharmacutcal cosmtcs. If a customr gnors th laflts or a customr obsrvs thm ntnsvly, thn x 0. Th rfrnc catgory (gnorrs) was mrgd wth th thrd group (customrs that obsrv laflts ntnsvly) n ordr to stmat th modl. Th statstcal sgnfcanc of coffcnts was dmonstratd aftr ths mrgr. If th customr obsrvs th laflts but s not ntrstd n thm, thn x 1.
186 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012 LR ch2(1) = 14.70 Prob > ch2 = 0.0001 Log lklhood = -192.9564 Psudo R2 = 0.0367 kosmtka Odds Rato Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rkosmtka 2.616998.6693291 3.76 0.000 1.585252 4.320247 Fgur 13 Odds rato for pharmacutcal cosmtcs (advrtsmnt awarnss) LR ch2(2) = 6.68 Prob > ch2 = 0.0355 Log lklhood = -196.9649 Psudo R2 = 0.0167 kosmtka Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] _Iltak_2.6466272.256675 2.52 0.012.1435535 1.149701 _Iltak_3.557015.4007175 1.39 0.165 -.2283768 1.342407 _cons -.3746934.1958374-1.91 0.056 -.7585276.0091407 Fgur 14 Estmat of logstc rgrsson for pharmacutcal cosmtcs (laflts n pharmacy) LR ch2(1) = 4.73 Prob > ch2 = 0.0296 Log lklhood = -197.93672 Psudo R2 = 0.0118 kosmtka Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] _Iltakn_2.5142472.2373121 2.17 0.030.0491241.9793703 _cons -.2423135.1696681-1.43 0.153 -.5748568.0902299 Fgur 15 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for pharmacutcal cosmtcs, rcalculatd (laflts n pharmacy) LR ch2(1) = 4.73 Prob > ch2 = 0.0296 Log lklhood = -197.93672 Psudo R2 = 0.0118 kosmtka Odds Rato Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] ltakn 1.672379.3968758 2.17 0.030 1.050351 2.662779 Fgur 16 Odds rato for pharmacutcal cosmtcs (laflts n pharmacy) LR ch2(1) = 0.77 Prob > ch2 = 0.3806 Log lklhood = -137.32311 Psudo R2 = 0.0028 nrvy Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] rnrvy.3426126.3831067 0.89 0.371 -.4082628 1.093488 _cons -1.555635.1698077-9.16 0.000-1.888452-1.222818 Fgur 17 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for th mdcns to support th nrvous systm (advrtsmnt awarnss) 4.6 Mdcns to support th nrvous systm Th mdcns to support th nrvous systm ar th last catgory of drugs analyzd n th papr. Advrtsmnt awarnss Accordng to th rsults n Fgur 17, th coffcnt s not statstcally sgnfcant. Customrs who ar not xposd to advrtsng ar th rfrnc group. Rnrvy (n Fgur 17) mans customrs who notcd th advrtsng for mdcns to support th nrvous systm. Th P-valu s 0.371. Th purchas of mdcns to support th nrvous systm s not dpndnt on advrtsmnt awarnss (n prnt or on tlvson). Th purchas of ths mdcamnts dpnds on othr factors such as a consumr s halth or atttud to mdcamnts. Advrtsng laflts n pharmacy Fgur 18 prsnts th rsults. Ignorrs ar th rfrnc group. Iltak_2 (n Fgur 18) mans unntrstd customrs and Iltak_3 mans ntrstd customrs.
J. Valčková Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products 187 LR ch2(2) = 3.70 Prob > ch2 = 0.1570 Log lklhood = -135.8559 Psudo R2 = 0.0134 nrvy Cof. Std. Err. z P> z [95% Conf. Intrval] _Iltak_2.2492462.3444867 0.72 0.469 -.4259353.9244276 _Iltak_3.9162907.4656692 1.97 0.049.0035958 1.828986 _cons -1.7492.2708682-6.46 0.000-2.280092-1.218308 Fgur 18 Estmaton of logstc rgrsson for th mdcns to support th nrvous (laflts n pharmacy) Th purchas of mdcns to support th nrvous systm s not dpndnt on customrs obsrvatons of laflts n pharmacs. Th P-valu for th frst coffcnt s 0.469 and that for th scond ndpndnt varabl quals 0.049. Th scond valu s on th lmt bcaus th stmaton s carrd out at th 5% sgnfcanc lvl. Th odds rato and probablty ar not dtctd. Ths catgory ncluds products that ar dsgnd to lmnat nsomna and anxty stats and ncluds antdprssants or mdcatons to stop smokng. Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of ths group was dmonstratd n th analyss. In ths cas, thr ar mportant othr sourcs of nformaton bcaus t s a dffrnt group of drugs. Ths products ar usd for psychologcal problms. Th forgong products (vtamns and mnrals, pankllrs, cosmtcs, mmunty support mdcns) ar ntndd for physcal problms,.g. pan and llnss prvnton. Ths four catgors show that advrtsng (advrtsmnt awarnss or advrtsng laflts or both) nfluncs purchas. Th nflunc of advrtsmnt awarnss on th purchas of mdcns for th nrvous systm support s not statstcally confrmd. Th tst confrms th clam abov that t s a spcal group of products. s nfluncd by othr factors. 5. Concluson Ths papr analysd purchass n th pharmacutcal markt, namly th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of fv groups of pharmacutcal products: (1) vtamns and mnrals, (2) mmunty support mdcns, (3) pankllrs, (4) pharmacutcal cosmtcs and (5) mdcns to support th nrvous systm. Th analyss was prformd usng th logstc rgrsson approach bcaus th dpndnt varabl was bnary. Th stmat of th coffcnt was prformd usng th maxmum lklhood mthod n ths rgrsson modl. W found rlatonshps btwn purchas and advrtsmnt awarnss (prnt and tlvson) for vtamns and mnrals, pankllrs and pharmacutcal cosmtcs, and rlatonshps btwn purchas and th prcpton of laflts for vtamns and mnrals, pharmacutcal cosmtcs and mmunty support mdcns. Th nflunc of advrtsng was not found n th cas of mdcns to support th nrvous systm. Tn modls wr stmatd. Th bst qualty stmaton was th modl for vtamns and mnrals. Customrs ar nfluncd by numrous othr factors than just advrtsng. Ths factors nflunc th procss of makng dcsons and purchass. Only th mpact of advrtsng was analysd n ths papr. Ths factors wll b montord and analysd n furthr rsarch. Th nxt phas of th rsarch wll concntrat on th analyss of a customr. Customrs can b sgmntd accordng to dmographc, gographc, psychologcal and bhavoural factors. Ltratur HILBE, J.M. (2009). Logstc Rgrsson Modls. Boca Raton: CRC Prss. HOSMER, D.W., LEMESHOW, S. (2000). Appld Logstc Rgrsson. Nw York: Wly. http://dx.do.org/10.1002/0471722146 HOYER, W.D., MACINNIS, D.J. (2007). Consumr Bhavor. Boston: Houghton Mffln. KLEINBAUM, D.G., KLEIN, M. (2010). Logstc Rgrsson. A Slf-Larnng Txt. Nw York: Sprngr. KOTLER, P. (2003). Marktng managmnt. Praha: Grada. KROČEK, L.H. (2010). IMS přdpovídá růst globálního farmacutckého trhu 5 8 % ročně do roku 2014. Pharm Busnss Magazn 6: 2. PECÁKOVÁ, I. (2007). Logstcká rgrs s víckatgorální vysvětlovanou proměnou. Acta Oconomca Pragnsa 15: 86 96. SOLOMON, M., BAMOSSY, G., ASKEGAARD, S., HOGG, M.K. (2006). Consumr Bhavor. A Europan Prspctv. Nw Jrsy: Prntc-Hall. SPÁČIL, V. (2003). Marktngové řízní: sylaby a případové stud. Ostrava: Rprons. SZEINBACH, S.L., BARNES, J.H., GARNER, D.D. (1997). Us of pharmacutcal manufacturrs valuaddd srvcs to buld customr loyalty. Journal of Busnss Rsarch 40(3): 229 236.
188 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012 http://dx.do.org/10.1016/s0148-2963(96)00239-1 VOGEL, R.J., RAMACHANDRAN, S., ZACHRY, W.M. (2003). A 3-stag modl for assssng th probabl conomc ffcts of rct-to consumr advrtsng of pharmacutcals. Clncal Thraputcs 25(1): 309 329. http://dx.do.org/10.1016/s0149-2918(03)90043-9 WOLOSHIN, S., SCHWARTZ, L.M., TREMMEL, J., WELCH, H.G. (2001). Drct-to-consumr advrtsmnts for prscrpton drugs: what ar Amrcans bng sold? Th Lanct 358(9288): 1141 1146. http://dx.do.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(01)06254-7 ZMEŠKAL, Z. (2004). Fnanční modly. Praha: Ekoprss. Appndx Tabl 1 Dstrbuton of purchas and advrtsmnt awarnss by th groups of mdcamnts Groups of obsrvd mdcamnts I. Vtamns and mnrals II. Mdcns for mmun support III. Pankllrs IV. Pharmacutcal cosmtcs V. Mdcns to support th nrvous systm Advrtsmnt awarnss Ys No Total Ys 152 (76 %) 48 (24 %) 200 No 53 (59.6 %) 36 (40.4 %) 89 Total 205 (70.9 %) 84 (29.1 %) 289 Ys 83 (55.4 %) 67 (44.6 %) 150 No 62 (44.6 %) 77 (55.4 %) 139 Total 145 (50.2 %) 144 (49.8 %) 289 Ys 169 (74.1 %) 59 (25.9 %) 228 No 37 (60.7 %) 24 (39.3 %) 61 Total 206 (71.3 %) 83 (28.7 %) 289 Ys 67 (45.9 %) 79 (54.1 %) 146 No 35 (24.5 %) 108 (75.5 %) 143 Total 102 (35.3 %) 187 (64.7 %) 289 Ys 11 (20.8 %) 42 (79.2 %) 53 No 37 (15.7 %) 199 (84.3 %) 236 Total 48 (16.6 %) 241 (83.4 %) 289
J. Valčková Th nflunc of advrtsng on th purchas of pharmacutcal products 189 Tabl 2 Dstrbuton of purchas and ntrst laflts by th groups of mdcamnts Groups of obsrvd mdcamnts I. Vtamns and mnrals II. Mdcns for mmun support III. Pankllrs IV. Pharmacutcal cosmtcs V. Mdcns to support th nrvous systm Ignor Advrtsng laflts Obsrv, not ntrstd n Obsrv, ntrstd n Total Ys 56 (28 %) 113 (56.5 %) 31 (15.5 %) 200 No 52 (58.4 %) 35 (39.3 %) 2 (2.3 %) 89 Ys 44 (29.3 %) 83 (55.3 %) 23 (15.4 %) 150 No 64 (46 %) 65 (46.8 %) 10 (7.2 %) 139 Ys 80 (35.1 %) 119 (52.2 %) 29 (12.7 %) 228 No 28 (45.9 %) 29 (47.5 %) 4 (6.6 %) 61 Ys 44 (30.1 %) 84 (57.6 %) 18 (12.3 %) 146 No 64 (44.8 %) 64 (44.8 %) 15 (10.4 %) 143 Ys 16 (30.2 %) 27 (50.9 %) 10 (18.9 %) 53 No 92 (39 %) 121 (51.3 %) 23 (9.7 %) 236 Total 108 (37.4 %) 148 (51.2 %) 33 (11.4 %) 289
190 Ekonomcká rvu Cntral Europan Rvw of Economc Issus 15, 2012