A PROCESS FRAMEWORK FOR SUBSCRIBER MANAGEMENT AND RETENTION IN NIGERIAN TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy A PROCESS FRAMEWORK FOR SUBSCRIBER MANAGEMENT AND RETENTION IN NIGERIAN TELECOMMUNICATION INDUSTRY J.O.DARAMOLA, O.O. OLADIPUPO AND A.G. MUSA Dpmn of Compu nd Infomon Sn,Covnn Unvy, O, Ng. Ab {wnd_x, fjooj, bo_mu }@yhoo.om Chunng whh uddn dfon of ubb o ompo dubng pobm n h gob ommunon nduy. Hn, domnn ppoh fo ubb mngmn nd non hun ono, n hp o n n xng ubb hn qung nw on. Pdv modng mpoy h u of d mnng hnqu o dnfy pn nd povd u h goup of ubb ky o hun n h n fuu. Howv, h ffvn of ubb non gy n n ognzon n b fuh bood f h on fo hun nd h mng of hun n o b pdd. In h pp, w popo d mnng po fmwok h n b ud o pd hun, dmn whn ubb ky o hun, povd h on why ubb my hun, nd ommnd ppop nvnon gy fo uom non ung ombnon of nd mhn nng hnqu. Th xpmn d ou ung d fom mjo om opo n Ng. Ky wod: Chun pdon, ommunon, don uppo ym, uvv ny, f nu nwok. 1. Inoduon Th ompv nu of h w ommunon nduy dv fom hvng v w om opo vng o wn ov pu popuon wh v h by m. Th ofn d o of nw v, pomoon of nnv pkg, nd dvmn nd nn nw gm. Th ff of h, py fo fuy mud mk h ndny fo ubb o mg o noh ompo. Ahough, h Ngn w om mk no fuy mud wh hn 20% of h n popuon w ubb, h popuon mk fuy mud, nd o hun ono mong h hgh-vud ubb popuon houd b of uppmo onn o ny pov om opo. Th phnomnon of hunng po of dfon of ubb fom ompny o ompo. Chunng mjo mk poonng uon whh uuy ou whn h mk n whh wo o mo ompn omp, mu. Whn om, h who ognzon h o hng. I no ony p onn on podu, pon o dpmn bu hng v of h n ompny hhy. To 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn, Covnn Unvy, 2007 79

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy hnd h, h ompny h o k ho vw on h u of h hunng nd wh o do bou. A gn uom b ny p n mph on ffv hun mngmn. Chunng houd b w undood by kng uoy ook h phnomnon fom h ompon, h mk nd h xn fo pon of vw. Of mpon h o of uom o o ny qud uom. A hgh hun pon o h f h uom dfd wh h quy of v ndd nd ow o n ompo nd h mk hghy ompv nd gowng. Whn h hgh, d mu houd b kn o bng foh on fo hunng nd g fo ubb non. Qu numb of mod nd hnqu hv bn ud o pd uom hun n u. A g numb hv xmy dv no hun pdon nd qu numb hv xndd h pdon o nud whn uom ky o hun nd h on() why uom mgh hun [10],[11],[18]. Ao, om of h hnqu h hv bn ud o pd uom hun nud: og gon [13], don (Cfon And Rgon T - CART) [2], f nu nwok [3], [17], d mnng [7],[14], boong [13], nd gn gohm [1]. In [13] Moz C.M.. pnd hm fo pdng ubb dfon nd mpovng uom non nd pof mxmzon ung mhn nng hnqu, h wok dd no dd h u of why nd whn hun w ky k p. [5], udy po of hun pdon n ommunon d ung of d mnng ofw pkg d MnngM. Th fo pon nd u fo xpod n h ppoh w v ppong of h gvn d. In [6] h pb of h pdv mod pdng hun nmy: nu nwok, og gon nd don w ompd ung ompn d. Th m w o dnfy h mo ub mod hn ny w don on h of h mod n m of h pdv uy. In [8] w h po of uvy of hun nd uom oyy n h Kon om mk. Ou ppoh n h wok no ony o bud mod h n pd whh ubb my hun, bu wh xndd pb o dvn on() why ubb my hun, whn hy my hun nd ommnd ppop gy fo h non. Thfo, ou po fmwok hnd hun pdon fom fou ppv. W nnd o mp m n h f m wo kf om h hunkof om ub b d mog p h d, ub b n on nf o m on nd ub b omp n nf o m on. Th oun of h oh p of h pp foow: on 2 dpon of h po fmwok, n on 3 w gv dpon of h xpmn podu wh pooyp d. In on 4 w du ou u nd n on 5 w hv h onuon. 2. Th Po Fmwok W dovd h mny of h ppoh pod n u ou n onx wh h dd nfomon bou ubb k dmogphy nd non nfomon vb, xmp opo n. A domnn goup of ubb h ppd ubb, wh md dmogph nfomon hv bn md vb (n xmp h Ngn onx), y h goup of ubb fom h g buk of nop o ub b b.ou f f o n h wo k f o u donbu d ng n pp op pdon mod fom vb nfomon on ppd ubb. Th po fmwok bng popod w f d mnng of ommunon d uh h pob 80 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn, Covnn Unvy, 2007

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy o pd hun, ddu on fo pob hun nd pd whn hun w k p. Th fgu bow ( Fgu 1) how h fmwok hu fo ubb mngmn o f hun pdon, pd whn uom ky o hun, povd h ky on fo hun nd gv ommndon of nvnon g fo ubb non. D fom om v povd bou ubb ompng of h ompn nd p d, nd uom non d w b ud o bud n ppop d pdon mod. Th d mod hn pod fo hun pdon, nd uvv ny. Thf, h u of h wo ny podu pd o don uppo xp ym omponn h ommnd h mo ppop nvnon g fo uom non. Tnon D Chun Pdon DB D mod Tmp Gnon DB Compn nd Rp D Why of Chun Don Suppo Exp Sym (DSES) Rommndon fo Invnon Sgy Whn of Chun (Suvv Any) Fgu 1: Fmwok Ahu fo Subb Mngmn nd Rnon 2.1 Th npu D S Th ubb d ud fo ou xpmn w gnd fom h hm of mjo w om opo ( h opo w no wn o b dnfd, hun pdon u onfdn). Ahough vy fw d hd bn gvn, w w owd o h hm of h vn db. Th hm of h ubb non db gvn foow: Subb = (_numb, d_numb, nomng_ou, ougong_ou, moun_b4_, moun_f_, Innon Mob Subb Idny (IMSI) (unqu), xhng_d, od_yp (m, vo, gp.), vn_yp). A yp ubb non n b d fom h non db ung ppop quy mn uh : S d, d, _numb, d_numb, _duon, _hg, bn_bfo, bn_f fom nondb wh _numb = ub b _Numb. Th ompn d onnng h od of ompn by ubb h h uu: Compn_d = (qu_ompn_d (unqu), d of ompn, m of ompn, yp of ompn, u (opn o od), mpu (nn ff no), hndd_by (pon o whom h pobm w gnd)). Th nu of h ompn db nd 81 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn, Covnn Unvy, 2007

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy ubb non ow fo mup oun of od of non nd ompn of ubb. Oh vn nfomon bou ubb nud: d of ubpon, yp v ubbd, ubb numb (unqu) 2.2 D Pdon Mod Th pm mp fo pdng hun nd h on fo hun w xd fom ubb non nd h ompn od d. A yp ubb ompn f no on of h bhd go h hv bn dnod by unqu od, h : wm wp bng (b), dmgd hgd d (d), nbby o od d (), nby o mk o v (m), omng pobm (b), mgon u (m), gp (gp), wp (wp), v (v), d (d), hnd pobm (hp), vp u (vp). Th pm mp xd fom h npu d ud n ou xpmn pnd foow: 1. Cng numb (unqu) 2. C md o = (o numb of md / numb of dy) 3. C vd o = (o numb of vd / numb of dy) 4. C doppd o = (o numb of nomp / numb of dy) 5. Amoun hgd o = (o moun hgd / numb of dy) 6. Sv uy o = (o duon / o numb of ) 7. Cd od o = (o d od/ numb of dy) 8. b o = (numb of b ompn/ o numb of ompn) 9. d o = (numb of d ompn/ o numb of ompn) 10. o = (numb of ompn/ o numb of ompn) 11. m o = (numb of m ompn/ o numb of ompn) 12. b o = (numb of b ompn/ o numb of ompn) 13. gp o = (numb of gp ompn/ o numb of ompn) 14. wp o = (numb of wp ompn/ o numb of ompn) 15. v o = (numb of v ompn/ o numb of ompn) 16. d o = (numb of d ompn/ o numb of ompn) 17. hp o = (numb of hp ompn/ o numb of ompn) 18. vp o = (numb of vp ompn/ o numb of ompn) 19. Compn fquny o = (numb of ompn / numb of dy) 20. Rpon o = (numb of od ompn/ o numb of ompn) 21. Mn-pon = (o m pn on od ompn / numb of od ompn) 22. No-pon o = (o numb of opn ompn / o numb of ompn) 3. Th Expmn 3.1 Chun Pdon wh ANN W mpmnd n gohm o n h npu d (.. non nd ompn d) n od o gn h vu fo h pm of h pdon mp. Tb 1 how mp d vu f h gnon po. Th vu n h pdon d mod w d ung nv ng wh h fomu: A = (V -V mn ) / (V mx V mn ) Fo = 1 n (1) Th d vu w ud npu no fd-fowd bk popgon f nu nwok mod ( Tb 2). Th nwok oupu o und ung h fomu: V = A (V mx -V mn ) + V mn Fo = 1...n (2) 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn, Covnn Unvy, 2007 82

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy Th hun pdon nu nwok mod w mpmnd ung MATLAB 7.0 Sofw [12]. Th onfguon of h fdfowd nu nwok mod ud w 21-22-1 Mu-Ly Ppon (MLP) [4], wh 21 nuonod un n h npu y whh dy opond o h numb of npu pm n ou pdon mod mp, 22 nuonod un n h hddn y (1) nd on nuonod un n h oupu y h opond o h oupu (1 o 0) whh ndv of whh ubb hun o no. Th Lvnbg-Mqud (TRAINLM) bkpopgon gohm w ud n nng h nwok wh h foowng nng pm vu: n.npm.poh 500 Mxmum numb of poh o n n.npm.go 0 Pfomn go n.npm.mx_f 5 Mxmum vdon fu n.npm.mm_du 1 Fo o u fo mmoy/pd dof n.npm.mn_gd 1-010 Mnmum pfomn gdn n.npm.mu 0.001 In Adpv nng pm vu (Mu) n.npm.mu_d 0.1 Mu d fo n.npm.mu_n 10 Mu n fo n.npm.mu_mx 112 Mxmum Mu n.npm.how 25 Epoh bwn howng pog n.npm.m nf nv Fgu 2 how h gph pnon of pn of wgh onvgn nd numb of nng poh. 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn, Covnn Unvy, 2007 83

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy 3.2 Suvv D mnng Th uvv m ny of ubb d o m h f m vu of ubb nd h hun hzd p ubb ov m pod w b d ou ung SAS ofw [15],[16]. Suvv d mnng db h dbuon of h uvv m fo uom n gvn popuon, nvg h ngh of pm nfun on xpd uvv m nd ow ompng of uvv m dbuon mong dffn ubpopuon[ 9 ].Th n y g v n g h n o u om b h v ou ndf ndw y o n h uvv m. Th ph of h xpmn h no bn onudd, nndd o dmn h uvv of h ubb n h popuon nd pd wh pon ubb ky o hun. 3.3 Gnng Ron fo Chun nd Invnon Sgy Th u obnd fom hun pdon ung f nu nwok nd hun uvv ny w b fd no Don Suppo Exp Sym (DSES) whh w gn h pobb on fo hun nd ommndon of nvnon g fo uom non ung knowdg u-bd nfn ngn. Th nfn ngn of h DSES ompod of of f - hn u h povd ommndon of ppop nnv bd on h d ng of ubb. Subb fd hgh-vud, mdum-vud nd ow-vud ung pf vu ng hhod funon Th(x) gvn : Th(x) = 1 f V(x) 6 0 / / h g h 0.5 f V(x) 40 ndv(x) <60 / / m d um 0 f V(x) <4 0/ / ow ( 3) Wh: 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn 85

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy V(x) = (( md o + vd o) / 2 * 100) (4) Gny, ow vud uom w b gnod wh mdum nd hgh vud uom w hv b-f non g ommndd fo hm ung of nbu u. In oh o gn on fo hun, h DSES kon pu ompn om h g h f bov0. 5 nd owo h w.ty p n n of nf n u fo gnng on fo hun hown foow: 1. If doppd o 0. 5( h gh )nd hu np d on=1( Y )Th n ub b my hu ndu oh g hd opp d 2. f b o 0. 5nd d opp d o 0. 5nd hu np d on=1th n ub b my hu ndu o bp ob m,h ghd opp d 3. f o 0. 5nd b o 0. 5nd d opp d o 0. 5nd hun pdon = 1 Thn ub b my hu ndu o, bp ob m,h ghd opp d 4. Ru Thu f, w hv ompd h mpmnon of h nu nwok-bd hun pdon nd DSES omponn of h hu fmwok, nd h u obnd hv bn vy nougng. Ahough mo m ndd o onud wok on h p of uvv ny, ou xpn o f gv dn o h fby of h po fmwok vb mod fo ffv ubb mngmn n h ommunon nduy. Th DSES pov o b n d ompmn o h npov pow of h nu nwok n pdng popv fuu hun by povdng h pobb on why hun my ou nd uggon of pob nvnon g. A of h h o f bn hvd wh n pb v of uy. 5. Conuon A omphnv po fmwok fo mngmn of hun h mb hun pdon, dmnon of why nd whn of hun nd uom ommndon of non g k h on dbd n h wok off vb pfom fo ffv ubb mngmn n ny f mung om mk. Th knd of ho ppoh h w nu h non of hgh-vud uom nd umy h pomoon of pofby hfo ommndd. W nnd o omp h oh p of h wok n od o fuh dv hom h novy of ou ppoh n on o mny oh xng ppoh. Rfn 1. Au, W., Chn, C. C. nd Yo, X. (2003): A Nov Evouony D Mnng Agohm wh Appon o Chun Pdon, IEEE non on vouony ompuon, 7, 6, 532-545. 2. Bom, J., Bj, T., Vnhoof, K. nd Swnnn, G. (2002): Compng Comp nd P Cfon fo Idnfyng Cuom Rk, Innon joun of h n mkng, 20, 117-131. 3. Boon, D. S. nd Rohm, M. (2002): R Sgmnon Ung Af Nu Nwok, Innon joun of h n mkng, 19, 287-301. 4. Dmo, J., Ougb, O., Owooko, E. nd Mu, A (2006): Don Suppo fo Popy App Ung Nu-CBR Ingn Sym., Podng of h Innon Confn on Nw Tnd n Mhm nd Compu Sn Wh Appon o R Wod Pobm (NTMCS), Covnn Unvy, O, Ng [65-82]. 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn 86

J.O. Dmo. / A Po Fmwok Fo Subb Mngmn And Rnon In Ngn Tommunon Induy 5. Eu, T. (2005): Chun Pdon n Tommunon Ung MnngM, In: Podng of h Wokhop on D Mnng nd Bun (DMBz) h 9h Euopn Confn on Pnp nd P n Knowdg Dovy n Db (PKDD), Poo, Poug. 6. Hddn, J. Tw, A., Roy, R, nd Ru, D (2006): Chun Pdon ung Compn D, Tnon on Engnng, Compung nd Thnoogy, Enfomk, Vo. 13, ISBN 1305-5315, pp 158-163. 7. Hwng, H., Too, J. nd Euho, S. (2004): An Lv Mod nd Cuom Sgmnon Bd on Cuom Vu: A C Sudy on h W Tommunon Induy, Exp ym wh ppon, 26, 181-188. 8. Km, H. nd Yoon, C. (2004): Dmnn of Subb Chun nd Cuom Loyy n h Kon Mob Tphony Mk, Tommunon Poy, 28, 751-765. 9. Lnoff, G. (2004) : Suvv D Mnng fo Cuom Ingh, D mn, hp://www.d-mn.om 10. Lu, J (2001): Dng Chun Tgg fo Ey Lf uom n h Tommunon Induy- An ppon of Inv T Tnng, Podng of h 2 nd D mnng Confn of DMondSUG 2001, Chgo IL. 11. Lu, J. (2002 ): Pdng Cuom Chun n h Tommunon Induy- An Appon of Suvv Any Ung SAS, Podng of SUG127, Ondo, Fod, Pp 114-27. 12. Mhwok In. (2003): MATLAB Sofw, von 7.0 13. Moz, M., Wonwz, R., Gm, D, Johnon, E., nd Kuhnky, H (2000): Pdng Subb Dfon nd Impovng Rnon n h W Tommunon Induy, IEEE Tnon on Nu Nwok, Sp Iu on D Mnng nd knowdg Rpnon 14. Rygk, C., Wng, J. nd Yn, D. C. (2002): D Mnng Thnqu fo Cuom Ronhp Mngmn, Thnoogy n Soy, 24, 483-502. 15. SAS Inu In. (1989), SAS/STAT @ Sofw: Chng nd Enhnmn hough R 6.11, Voum 2, Cy, NC: SAS Inu In. 846pp. 16. SAS Inu In. (1989), SAS/STAT @ U Gud, Von 6.0, Fouh Edon, Voum 2, Cy, NC: SAS Inu In. 846pp. 17. Vdo, A., Lbo, P. J. G. nd Mhn, K. (1999): Sgmnon of h Onn Shoppng Mk Ung Nu Nwok, Exp ym wh ppon, 17, 303-314. 18. W, C. nd Chu, I. (2002): Tunng Tommunon C D o Chun Pdon: A D Mnng Appoh, Exp ym wh ppon, 23, 103-112. 3GSM & Mob Compung: An Emgng Gowh Engn fo Non Dvopmn 87