2010-2011 Teacher Supply and Demand Report. For the Victorian Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group

21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand Report For the Victorian Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group

Published by the Human Resources Division Department of Education and Early Childhood Development Melbourne October 212 State of Victoria (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development) 212 The copyright in this document is owned by the State of Victoria (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development), or in the case of some materials, by third parties (third party materials). No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, the National Education Access Licence for Schools (NEALS) (see below) or with permission. An educational institution situated in Australia which is not conducted for profit, or a body responsible for administering such an institution may copy and communicate the materials, other than third party materials, for the educational purposes of the institution. Authorised by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development, 2 Treasury Place, East Melbourne, Victoria, 32. ISBN 978--7594-695-7 This document is also available on the internet at http://www.education.vic.gov.au/hrweb/careers/teach/tchdemand.htm.

Contents Executive Summary 5 1. Introduction 7 Methodology 6 Factors Impacting on Supply and Demand 6 Actions Taken to Address Workforce Trends 7 2. National Data and Other Education Sectors 1 School Workforce 1 Workforce data in early childhood and VET Sectors 11 Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce 11 3. School Workforce in Victoria 15 Historical Trend in School Staff Numbers 14 Teaching Workforce 15 Gender 16 Age 16 4. Supply 19 Completion of Initial Teaching Qualifications Australia 19 Participation in Initial Teaching Programs in Victoria 2 Offers 21 Acceptances 21 Enrolments 22 Destinations of Graduates from Teaching Courses 26 Graduate Teachers in Government Schools 27 5. Demand 33 Historical Trends 33 Projected Trends in School Aged Population 35 Attrition of Ongoing Teachers in Government Schools 37 Government Teaching Workforce Taking Leave 38 Fixed Term Employment 4 Casual Relief Teachers 4 Difficult-to-fill Vacancies 41 6. Matching Supply and Demand 46 Appendix 1: Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group 48 Appendix 2: Data Tables 49 References 63 Endnotes 64

Executive Summary The 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand report presents information about the school teaching workforce in Victoria in 21 and 211. It updates the picture presented in the 29 report. It is the ninth edition of a series of reports commencing in 21. The report focuses on: the national picture of teacher supply and demand trends the composition of the Victorian teaching workforce in the Government, Catholic and Independent sectors; the outlook for the Victorian teaching workforce over the next four years likely supply and demand. The 21-211 report provides information and analysis of the broader national context of school teacher supply and demand and a brief overview of workforce issues in the early childhood and vocational education and training sectors. National Picture of the School Workforces A range of recent research has been undertaken which provides information about teacher supply and demand at a national and school sector level. In 211 this includes the completion of the Staff in Australian Schools national survey and the Productivity Commission s investigation into the education and training workforces. Demand expected strong growth in student numbers a more complex and demanding teaching environment increased competition for teaching resources, particularly from the early childhood sector. Supply an expected upsurge in age-related retirements the quality of applicants to teacher education courses continuing difficulty in balancing practicum supply and demand expected undersupply of early childhood teachers to meet the increase in demand due to national reforms. The Victorian Government has implemented a range of strategies to boost supply of quality teachers, particularly in hard to staff locations and subject areas. School Workforce in Victoria Overall teacher numbers in Victorian schools continued to grow, particularly in independent schools. Teaching is a highly feminised profession in Victoria, with women making up approximately 7% of the workforce. In government schools the proportion of teachers aged 5 years and over has grown to 37.4% in 211 as has the proportion of teachers aged less than 35 years, to 32.5% in 211. The Catholic school teacher workforce has aged, with both the proportion of teachers aged 5 years and over increasing to 4.3% in 211 and the proportion of teachers aged less than 35 years decreasing to 21.3% in 211. 4 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

Supply Interest in undertaking undergraduate teacher education courses is strong, with first year enrolments increasing from 3,31 in 21 to 4,272 in 211. Interest in undertaking a graduate entry teacher course in Victoria is also strong with total enrolments of 3,351 in 21. Final year enrolments in these initial teaching courses are increasing, totalling 5,223 in 21 and 5,662 in 211 (a ten year high). In 21 nearly 8% of graduate entry teaching course graduates were employed as teachers, compared with 68% of undergraduate teaching course graduates. Demand The number of teachers employed in Victorian schools was 72,521 in 21 (43,29 in government schools, 15,847 in Catholic schools and 13,384 in independent schools). Teacher attrition rates in Victoria are expected to average approximately 5% until 215. The demand for teachers is predicted to increase due to increased school enrolments, especially in secondary schools. There has been a decrease in the proportion of primary (1.7%) and secondary school (3%) students in government schools while enrolments in non-government schools have increased. Growth in student enrolments is predicted to continue, with growth in primary enrolments occurring earlier than in secondary schools. There has been a small but consistent decrease in student teacher ratios from 21 to 21. The proportion of government school teachers working part time increased from 17.5% in 21 to 23.% in 211. For Catholic schools the rate was 3.5% in 211. Matching Supply and Demand Forecasting teacher supply and demand is a complex process, impacted significantly by a range of internal and external factors. The current projections place teacher supply and demand in surplus in Victoria for the period 212 to 215. For primary school teachers the predicted surplus in supply is an average of 14 per year and for secondary teachers an average of 58 per year. While there is an overall balance between supply and demand for teachers, there are some geographical and subject areas which have shown historical trends of excess demand. DEECD monitors this in Victorian government schools. There is excess demand in some areas for mathematics, science (physics and chemistry) and teachers of languages. Executive Summary 5

1. Introduction This report presents information about the school teaching workforce quantum and flow in Victoria for 21 and 211. It updates the picture presented in the 29 Teacher Supply and Demand Report and is the ninth edition of a series commencing in 21. The publication of this report aims to provide information to assist workforce planning for a range of education sector organisations and assists teacher education institutions to identify areas of need they may consider to focus on in course delivery. The report provides information on: the national picture of teacher supply and demand trends the composition of the Victorian teaching service in the government, Catholic and independent sectors the outlook for the Victorian teaching service over the next four years likely supply and demand. Methodology Information presented in this report is drawn from a range of sources. These include the National Schools Statistics Collection (Australian Bureau of Statistics), administrative records for both government and Catholic schools, Victorian Institute of Teaching, Victorian Tertiary Admissions Centre, Graduate Careers Council and annual surveys conducted in government schools by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD). The most up to date information available has been used. Independent sector (the non-catholic non-government sector) data have been sourced from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). In projecting student numbers for all sectors, historic trends in student enrolments and year-to-year transition rates have been extrapolated forward. In projecting teachers required in Victorian schools a similar model is used for the nongovernment sector (both Catholic and independent) as is used for the Government sector. These figures are then adjusted on the basis of the various student teacher ratios provided in the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publication Schools, Australia. The Teacher Supply and Demand Reference Group considers that extrapolation of the data that were available in both the government and Catholic sectors would provide adequate representation of teacher supply and demand across Victoria. Factors Impacting on Supply and Demand The Productivity Commission has recently identified a range of issues and challenges which are likely to impact on the capacity of the national education workforce to contribute to high quality learning outcomes. Although the Commission has a national perspective, these factors are also largely applicable to Victoria: Demand expected strong growth in student numbers a more complex and demanding teaching environment increased competition for teaching resources, particularly from the early childhood sector. Supply an expected upsurge in age-related retirements the lower average entry quality of those seeking to become teachers availability of practicum ongoing imbalances in workforce demand and supply often limited workforce mobility, especially between urban and rural and remote areas. 6 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

Most of these challenges have either already arrived or have been on the horizon for a number of years and Victoria has responded with a range of targeted initiatives. Nevertheless, sustained effort is required to ensure risks are addressed effectively. To the above can be added a range of policy developments that will or are already having an impact on teacher supply and demand, including: National initiatives in teacher education and registration The Australian Institute for Teaching and School Leadership (AITSL) has developed national professional standards for teachers, a national system for the accreditation of preservice teacher education courses and a system for nationally consistent registration of teachers. These initiatives are currently being implemented and are likely to have some impact on the supply of teachers in Victoria. For example, the move to mandatory two-year graduate entry teacher education programs may impact on supply particularly in the transition years. Changes in the Higher Education sector 212 has seen the introduction of a market-driven higher education system for undergraduate courses and measures to increase participation of students from low socioeconomic status. The impact of these changes on teacher supply is not yet clear and will require close monitoring. Actions Taken to Address Workforce Trends The Victorian Government has provided a number of measures aimed at improving the supply, capacity and quality of teaching and learning in 21 and 211. These measures have included: State Government Funded Initiatives Refresher Courses for Teachers Returning to Government Schools: assists qualified teachers wishing to update/refresh their knowledge before returning to teach in government schools. Approximately 267 teachers utilised this program in 21 and a further 274 in 211. Teaching Scholarship Scheme: provides final year student teachers with financial incentives and employment opportunities in schools with difficult-to-fill vacancies. In 21 and 211 15 final year students each year were supported through this program. Student Teacher Practicum Scheme: encourages student teachers to undertake their practicum in rural locations or outer metropolitan areas by providing financial support. 235 student teachers were supported through this program in 21 and 243 in 211. Special Education Scholarship Program: enables current teachers to obtain special education qualifications. The numbers of teachers supported through this program was 25 in 21 and 81 in 211. Special Education Autism Scholarships: enables current teachers to obtain special education qualifications specifically in Autism education. Twenty-five scholarships per year over four years were funded through this program with the final intake commencing study in 213. Maths and Science Graduate Scholarship: encourages graduates who have completed a mathematics or science degree to undertake a teaching qualification. In 21 there were 72 people supported through this program. Career Convert Scholarship: enables non-teaching professionals to undertake a teacher education course while employed as a supervised trainee teacher. The program had one intake in 21 and supported 22 people to take up teaching as a career. Teacher Quality National Partnerships Initiatives in Victoria As part of the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) national agenda, a National Partnership Agreement on Improving Teacher Quality (TQNP) was finalised in December 28. The TQNP supports a range of ambitious, nationally significant reforms, which underpin other national initiatives to improve schooling, and includes within its ambit support for innovative programs that would (a) attract the best entrants to teaching, and (b) place teachers to minimise skill shortages and enhance retention. Introduction 7

DEECD has obtained TQNP funding to implement a number of programs with direct relevance to these objectives. These are as follows: Career Change Program: enables non-teaching professionals to undertake a teacher education course while employed as a supervised trainee teacher. The program had an intake of 3 participants in 21 and 211, and will have a further intake in 212. Teach For Australia (TFA): prepares outstanding graduates from all degree disciplines for teaching in disadvantaged schools. In 21 there were 43 participants and in 211 there were 34. Graduate Pathways: provides assistance for graduates in priority degree disciplines to undertake education training and financial incentives to attr4act them to government schools upon becoming qualified. The program commenced in 211 with 4 participants, and will continue in 212 with a target of supporting a further 4 graduates. Graduate Retention Incentive Program: provides financial incentives over four years to retain 1 high quality teacher graduates appointed to hard to staff rural schools. In 211 44 participants were recruited to the program, and further recruitment is underway. Special Education Scholarships: enables current teachers and those returning to the profession to obtain special education qualifications. In 211 8 scholarships were provided, with the priority areas being autism and hearing impairment. Indigenous Scholarships: provide indigenous people with financial assistance to undertake teacher education courses. Target groups include VCE students, current students in the final year of teacher training, and current employees seeking to qualify as teachers. The target is to support 3 Indigenous people in two intakes in 211 and 212. Early Childhood Initiatives Employment Incentives for Early Childhood Educators: Incentives have been made available to attract early childhood educators to work in hard-to-staff positions. Six early childhood teachers received an employment incentive in 21 and 25 were awarded in 211. Early Childhood Qualification Fund: provides scholarships to existing early childhood educators working in licensed children s service or approved education and care service to gain a further qualification. In 21 8 scholarships for undergraduate and graduate early childhood teaching degrees were awarded, and in 211 183 early childhood teacher scholarships were supported. Aboriginal Early Childhood Teacher Scholarships: provides scholarships to Diploma qualified Aboriginal early childhood educators to upgrade to an early childhood teaching qualification. In 21 six scholarships were awarded and a further four were provided in 211. Looking Forward Some of these programs are continuing in 212 and a new one is joining the suite. Science Scholarships: a new science scholarship begins in 212 which will support 4 science graduates to complete their teaching qualification. 8 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

2. National Data and Other Education Sectors Main Points National Education reforms and workforce studies have highlighted the need for reliable workforce data collections in all education sectors on which to track trends in workforce supply and demand. School Workforce The teaching workforce has been growing in line with growth in student enrolments, and the non-government school sector has experienced more growth than the government sector. More teachers have been employed on contract and part time employment arrangements in recent years. Unfilled vacancies have decreased significantly in schools between 27-21 however difficult-to-fill vacancies have remained much the same. Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce There is a projected shortfall in the supply of early childhood teachers as demand is projected to increase with policy changes in the sector from 212. Vocational Education and Training Workforce Growth in demand for VET course delivery is expected to continue both in TAFE and private providers, especially in areas of skill shortages in the broader labour market. The VET workforce is older than Early Childhood and Care workforce and schools workforces. There has been an increased national focus on collecting and understanding education workforce data in recent years. This has been mainly driven by the National Education reforms set down by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG), and the increased need to plan ahead to ensure an adequate supply of qualified people to become educators for the future. This report includes some data from national sources, including the 21 National Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce Census and the Vocational Education and Training Teaching Workforce surveys (commissioned by DEEWR). A national survey of teaching staff in schools has been conducted by the Australian Council for Educational Research (the Staff in Australian Schools Survey). In addition; the recent work of the Productivity Commission has encouraged an integrated approach to the analysis and planning of the education workforce, including early childhood and care, schools and VET workforces. The Commission has published final reports for Early Childhood Development and the Vocational Education and Training workforces, while the final report on the School Workforce is due in April 212. Further information about each of these reports can be found at: http://www.pc.gov.au/projects/study/education-workforce Other data collections which are not directly referenced in this report but have related objectives are: The National Teaching Workforce Dataset the initial dataset is currently being developed and should be available by mid-212. It aims to provide national data across workforce characteristics which are key to effective workforce planning. The National Longitudinal Teacher Workforce Study a longitudinal study of recent teacher education graduates is underway which will measure the effectiveness of teacher education courses and teacher workforce patterns and flow in the early career years over four years. The Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS) 28 and 213. The 213 survey will have a strong focus on teachers professional environment, teaching conditions and the impact on school and teacher effectiveness National Data and Other Education Sectors 9

School Workforce On a full-time equivalent basis, the paid school workforce in Australia includes more than 25 teaching staff, principals and other school leaders and nearly 8 teacher assistants and administrative staff. There were 251,421.8 FTE teachers in Australian schools in 21, with 72,521 FTE (25.3%) in Victorian schools. For Australia, 5.9% of teachers were teaching primary classes, with 47.1% in primary classes in Victoria. Figure 2.1: FTE Teachers in primary and secondary schools, Victoria and Australia, 21 3, 25, 2, Secondary Primary 15, 1, 5, Vic Australia Source: National School Statistical Collection (NSSC) Table 51a In-school staff (FTE), 4221. Schools, Australia 21 Analysis undertaken by the Productivity Commission indicates that the structure and nature of this workforce has been changing in various ways: The proportion of the teaching workforce employed in non-government schools has steadily risen in line with a similarly changing pattern of student enrolments. The workforce is ageing, with the rate of age-related exits anticipated to rise in the coming two decades. Contract and part time employment has been growing, with the workforce also more feminised. (The ratio of female to male teachers overall is about two to one, and at the primary level it exceeds four to one.) Class sizes and hence student teacher ratios have been progressively reduced. There is evidence to suggest a lowering of the average literacy and numeracy skills of females entering teacher training courses. Staff in Australia s Schools Survey Two Staff in Australia s Schools (SiAS) surveys have been conducted by Australian Council for Educational Research (ACER) for the Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR), in 26-7 and 21. The surveys provide a picture of the Australian teacher and leader workforce. The surveys provide additional useful information not available through other sources and present a national context for examining the situation of the school teaching workforce in Victoria. Areas covered by the study include: demographic background of teachers, their qualifications, current position, professional learning, career path, activities outside teaching, future career intentions, views on teaching and leadership, school staffing and teacher appraisal. The report also includes an additional focus on early career teachers and leaders. The 21 report was released in January 212. Key findings from the 21 report, including comparisons with 27 data include: Age: The average age of the primary school teacher workforce is decreasing (from 42.3 to 42.), while that of the secondary school workforce increasing (43.5 to 44.5) 1 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

The average age of primary teachers in Victoria (42.3) is slightly higher than the national average while for secondary teachers it is slightly lower (44.3); average age is highest for secondary teachers in special needs, LOTE, VET, physics and maths subject areas Gender: The percentage of teachers who are female is continuing to grow at both primary (79% to 81%) and secondary (56% to 57%) levels. In Victoria, the proportion of female teachers was lower in primary schools (8.3%) and higher in secondary schools (58.8%) than the national levels. Employment mode: Full-time and ongoing employment rates are both higher for secondary teachers compared to primary teachers. However full-time employment for secondary teachers fell from 85% to 82%. Out-of-field teaching: Levels of out-of-field teaching have generally fallen across subject areas but still account for 29% of the sample population. Professional learning: Levels of reported professional learning activity across subject specialties have generally fallen. Work intentions: The average years that Victorian teachers intend to continue working in schools is lower than the national average for both primary (13.9 v 14.5 years) and secondary schools (11.5 v 12.2 years). Unfilled and difficult-to-fill vacancies: The proportion of primary and secondary principals reporting unfilled vacancies in Terms 3/4 of 21 fell significantly from 27 while reported major difficulty in suitably filling vacancies stayed much the same at 5% and 9% respectively of principals. Early career teachers: Victoria has a higher percentage of early career teachers than the national average for both primary (28.7 v 24.8) and secondary sectors (22.5 v 2.1). Workforce data in early childhood and VET Sectors The Council of Australian Governments (COAG) has agreed on common strategic frameworks to guide government action on early childhood development, schooling and vocational education and training (VET) across Australia. Particular reference was made to cross-sectoral and integrated service delivery within the terms of reference including workforce skill and training needs; job design and employment agreements, implications for workforce planning across the sectors; and attracting and retaining workers. 1 Early Childhood Education and Care Workforce A national Early Childhood and Care (ECEC) Workforce Census was commissioned by DEEWR and conducted in partnership with state and territory governments in 21. The survey covered 11,558 childcare services and 4,82 preschool services across Australia of which a quarter (4,83) were located in Victoria. 2 Key findings from the survey include: The ECEC workforce nationally was estimated at 139,187 persons, with 25,475 or 18% employed in preschools. For Victoria the total workforce in 21 was estimated to be 32,116 with 7,294 (23%) employed in early childhood services. Note: The National Census did not include a large number of Victorian occasional care services and is therefore likely to have underestimated the size of the Victorian workforce by approximately three to four thousand staff. The Census gives the number of teachers working in Victorian kindergartens or long dare care settings in 21 as 2,939. Preschool staff were older on average than primary school teachers. The median age for preschool staff was 44.6 years (compared with 42 years for primary teachers), with 12.5% under 3 (23% for primary teachers) and 3.8% over 5 years old (compared with 27% nationally of primary teachers). Early childhood teachers are overwhelmingly female. The proportion of staff in preschools with a teaching qualification was 43% (8,45 nationally). A further 1, people have teaching qualifications and are working in other early childhood education and care settings. National Data and Other Education Sectors 11

A preschool program is a structured play based learning program aimed at children in the year or two before they commence formal schooling. These programs are delivered in long day care or in preschool services. The Census identified preschool programs when the program was delivered by a qualified teacher with at least a Bachelor degree in ECEC teaching and that the program was based on a curriculum or learning framework. Around 37% of long day care services nationally delivered a preschool program, for Victoria this was 44% (487 services). For preschool services, the national rate was 84%, for Victoria the rate was 88% (1335 services). From 214, under the National Quality Framework, all centre based services with more than 25 places will be required to employ a qualified early childhood teacher. Of the 1,522 staff delivering preschool programs in preschools nationally, 68% had a three-year bachelor degree or above, with approximately three quarters of these staff having a four-year bachelor degree or higher. The rates for Victoria were similar, with 2,9 workers with a four-year bachelor degree or higher in either preschool or long day care programs and a further 78 workers with a three-year bachelor degree. The median number of weekly hours worked by these staff was 31 hours. This census surveyed ECEC staff about similar topics to SiAS for teachers. These areas included job satisfaction, plans to stay within the sector, receipt of recognition of prior learning, current study/professional learning, and attitudes to study and income. Preschool service workers report a similar level of job satisfaction to teachers, 92%, but they report lower satisfaction with pay and conditions (5%). They also report high morale and team spirit in their workplace (85%) and supportive management (81%). Less than half agree that their job is important because of the high status and positive recognition in the community. The Productivity Commission study into the ECEC workforce considered the implications of the government reforms for the 14, workers that comprise the early childhood education and care workforce. Key findings of the report include: There is a projected shortfall in the supply of early childhood teachers as demand is projected to increase with policy changes in the sector from 212. To meet the targets specified in the reforms, more workers will be required, and the average level of workers qualifications will need to increase. The wages of workers in most early childhood education and care employment categories will need to rise because of these factors, and need to match wage relativities with the primary school sector for teachers. The supply of suitably qualified workers is likely to take some time to respond, and exemptions from the new standards (waivers) will be required. Government timelines for reform appear optimistic. The increase in demand for qualified ECEC workers implicit in the reforms will require a significant increase in training, particularly from the vocational education and training sector. Professional development and support for early childhood development staff will need to improve to ensure the benefits of additional training are enduring, and to give all workers the opportunity to understand the wide ranging pedagogical and regulatory reforms in the sector. Vocational Education and Training Workforce A report by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research (NCVER) observed that obtaining an accurate picture of the size, distribution and characteristics of the Vocational Education and Training (VET) workforce is difficult. This is partly because VET staff could be working in a variety of roles and settings. For example staff working in VET could work in a Technical and Further Education (TAFE) institute, dual sector university, private registered training organisation (RTO), school or other educational setting. The workforce includes VET trainers and a range of non-teaching staff that support the organisation and delivery of VET programs. In recent times there have been various data collections that provide some insight. These vary in their scope however they provide some data on which to draw a picture of the workforce characteristics. The NCVER study, Vocational Education and Training Workforce Data 28 (NCVER 21), drew on two major sources of information about the VET workforce. The first uses ABS Census of Population and Housing and the Survey of Education and Training undertaken in 25, while the second was a point in time survey of TAFE providers. 12 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

This study identified three types of staff in VET: VET practitioner, engaged in the development, delivery and assessment of courses; VET professional, which include practitioners and staff who provide leadership, management and support for course delivery; and other staff engaged in generic transferable roles including administration, finance and maintenance. Other key findings of the NCVER include: The VET workforce has a greater proportion of part-time, casual and older workers compared with the general labour force. Growth in demand for VET course delivery is expected to continue both in TAFE and private providers, especially in areas of skill shortages in the broader labour market. For Victoria, the estimated number of VET practitioners in 28 was 11,39, which comprised 68% of the Victorian VET workforce. For the whole VET workforce, the proportion of females was 57.3%. The median age for Victorian VET workforce was 47 years, and the proportion of workforce over 5 was 41%, which are both higher than ECEC and school teachers. There is a high proportion of casual and part time employment in this sector. The recent Productivity Commission study into the VET workforce 3 made the following findings: The VET workforce comprises about 73 TAFE employees and an estimated 15, who work for other VET providers. It includes trainers and assessors, other professionals and general staff. It has a greater proportion of part-time, casual and older workers, compared with the general labour force. There are nearly 5 RTOs ranging from large, broad-based TAFE institutes to private sector and enterprise-based RTOs of varying size and scope. VET trainers and assessors are required to be dual professionals, having both industry currency and educational capabilities. At an aggregate level, the current VET workforce numbers, profile and capability meet many of the existing demands on the VET sector. Some clear deficiencies should be addressed. The VET sector requires: more trainers and assessors with industry skills in demand; greater attention to meeting changing contemporary skills needs; and a wider base of the VET workforce that has at least basic educational capabilities. Estimates suggest that up to one-third of trainers and assessors in the non-tafe sector are engaged as casuals or fixed-term employees. This proportion is even higher in the TAFE sector, where about 6 per cent of trainers and assessors were employed on a non-permanent basis in 28, with a particularly high use of casuals in the roles of trainers and assessors (and with significant variation across jurisdictions). Casualisation of the VET workforce is partly a response to the sector s emphasis on industry currency and close association with industry more generally. Flexible forms of employment also enhance the ability of the VET sector to respond quickly and adequately to new or varying skills requirements, over time and in different regions. Better data particularly covering the private VET sector are urgently required to inform policy strategies and assist with workforce planning. National Data and Other Education Sectors 13

3. School Workforce in Victoria Main Points: There was continued growth in teacher numbers in Victoria, particularly in independent schools. Teaching continues to be a highly feminised profession in Victoria. The proportion of younger teachers (under 35) in government schools is growing. The Catholic school teaching workforce is ageing at a greater rate than the government and independent sectors. This chapter provides a picture of the school workforce in Victoria. It describes its size and composition, provides a comparison over time and across government and non-government sectors. At August 21 there were 14,514 persons employed in Victorian schools. Teachers (72,521 FTE) comprised 69.4% of all staff in Victorian schools; this was slightly higher than for the whole of Australia where overall, two thirds of school staff were teachers. The proportion of teachers was slightly higher than average in Catholic schools (71.5%) and lower in independent schools (65.5%). Table 3.1: In school staff headcount by staff type, by sex and sector, Victoria, 21 Function Sex Government Catholic Independent All sectors Teaching staff Male 12,39 4,343 4,66 21,393 Female 3,9 11,54 8,724 51,128 All 43,29 15,847 13,384 72,521 Specialist Male 189 84 157 43 support staff Female 741 244 481 1,466 All 93 328 638 1,896 Other Male 2,98 1,178 2,83 5,359 Female 15,68 4,88 4,322 24,738 All 17,76 5,986 6,45 3,97 Total Male 14,677 5,65 6,9 27,182 Female 47,249 16,556 13,527 77,332 All 61,926 22,161 2,427 14,514 Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no 4221. Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/detailspage/4221.21?opendocument Historical Trend in School Staff Numbers In Victoria the number of school staff across all sectors has grown since 21. In school staff includes teaching staff (including school leaders), specialist support staff, administrative and clerical staff as well as building operations, general maintenance and other staff. Across the same time period school enrolments have increased (see Chapter 5). 14 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

Figure 3.1: In-school staff headcount, by sector, Victoria, 21 1 12, 1, Independent Catholic Government 8, 6, 4, 2, - 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: NSSC Table 5a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no 4221. Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/detailspage/4221.21?opendocument Teaching Workforce In August 21, there was 72,521 teaching staff in Victorian schools. This was equivalent to 63,519.1 full time equivalent (FTE) teachers. The number of primary teachers was 29,927.4 FTE and secondary 33,591.7 FTE. Table 3.2: Numbers of full-time equivalent teachers, by sector and level, Victoria, 21 School level Government Catholic Independent Total Primary 2,4.8 6,229.6 3,693. 29,927.4 Secondary 19,15.6 6,978.4 7,462.7 33,591.7 All 39,155.4 13,28. 11,155.7 63,519.1 Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff (FTE) by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, School Level, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no 4221. Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/detailspage/4221.21?opendocument Historical Trend for Teacher Numbers Across all sectors, primary teacher numbers have increased by 1.8% since 21, with the number of secondary teachers increasing by 17.2% over the same period. Figure 3.2: Numbers of teachers by sector and level, Victoria, 21 1 4 35 3 25 2 Independent 15 Catholic 1 Government 5 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Primary Secondary Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no 4221. Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/detailspage/4221.21?opendocument School Workforce in Victoria 15

The distribution of teachers across government and non-government sectors has changed over time. The proportion of teachers in Victoria in government schools decreased from 65% in 21 to 62% in 21; for Catholic schools the proportion has remained steady at around 2%; while for independent schools the proportion has increased from 15% to 18%. Gender Females form the majority of the teaching workforce. The percentage of teachers in Victoria who were female was 7.5% which is very similar to the Australian teaching workforce, 71.3%. By sector, the proportion of Catholic teaching staff that was female was 72.6%, government sector was 71.5% and the independent sector was 65.2%. Over time, from 21, the proportion has been stable in government schools, and increasing slowly in both non-government sectors. Figure 3.3: Proportions of female teachers, by sector, Victoria, 21 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Cath Gov Ind 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: NSSC Table 51a In-school staff count by States and Territories, Affiliation, Sex, Function and Years (1996 to 21), Cat no 4221. Schools, Australia 21, ABS 211 http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/detailspage/4221.21?opendocument Age The proportion of teachers over 5 in government schools has increased from 26.6% in 21 to a high of 38.7% in 29; then decreased slightly to 37.4% in 211 (this group has plateaued), while the proportion of younger teachers (under 35) has grown from 2.4% in 21 to 32.5% in 211. Figure 3.4: Proportions of teachers and principals in government schools, by age, Victoria, 21 11 1 8 6 4 over 5 35 to 5 under 35 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: DEECD June 211 Data Collection 16 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

The proportion of teachers in Catholic schools over 5 has increased from 2.2% in 21 to 4.3% in 211. The proportion of younger teachers, under 35, has decreased from 31.1% in 21 to 21.3% in 211. Figure 3.5: Proportion of teachers in catholic schools by age group, Victoria, 21 11 1 8 6 4 over 5 35 to 5 under 35 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: Catholic Education Commission of Victoria February Census 211 Data Collection School Workforce in Victoria 17

4. Supply Main Points: Interest in undertaking undergraduate and graduate teacher training courses is strong. Acceptances of course offers for teacher training courses were at an 11 year high in 211. Final year enrolments in Victorian initial teaching courses are increasing and were at a ten year high in 211. In 21 nearly 8% of graduate initial teaching course graduates were employed as teachers, compared with 68% of undergraduate course graduates. Generally, graduate teachers were employed near where they trained. Qualified teachers become available to work in schools through a number of pathways. This chapter discusses these avenues and the numbers of teachers supplied by each. The conventional source is through school leavers entering an undergraduate teacher education course to train as a teacher, or alternatively to enter an undergraduate course and then undertake a post graduate teacher education course. Figure 7 attempts to depict the sources of qualified teachers, called the teacher supply pipeline. Figure 4.1: Teacher supply pipeline School Education Pre service Training Teaching Service Undergraduate Teacher Training VIT Non Govt School Under graduate Degree Teaching Qual ification Govt Resign/ Retire Others with degrees or trade certificates Trained Teachers Interstate or Overseas Trained teachers The supply pipeline of the teaching workforce broadly follows the stages shown in the diagram above. The quantum at each stage is: In 21 there were approximately 5, school leavers who had completed Year 12 in Victoria. 4 Persons enrolling in the first year of undergraduate teacher training in Victoria in 21 was 3,31 (4,272 in 211). 5 18 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

Persons enrolling in graduate teacher training in Victoria in 21 was 3,351 (1,67 in 211). a Final year enrolments in Victorian initial teaching courses totalled 5,223 in 21, (undergraduate course enrolments were 2,338 with 2,885 in graduate courses) and 5,662 in 211 (undergraduate enrolments were 2,497 with 3,165 enrolled in graduate courses). 6 Persons registered with VIT was 115,848 in June 211, and of these 114,928 had registration allowing them to teach. This total included 6,131 new registrants. 6 The number of teachers employed in Victorian schools was 72,521 in 21 (43,29 in government schools, 15,847 in Catholic schools and 13,384 in independent schools). 7 The attrition rate in government schools in 21 was 5.4%. 8 Information about attrition is not available from the Victorian non-government sector however if the same attrition rate is applied to all teachers, the estimated number of teachers leaving was 3,916 in 21.* *Note: This is an overestimate as this does not account for teachers moving to non-government schools; Attrition: ongoing teaching service staff who ceases from the payroll and who are not re-employed as ongoing. Staff on fixed term arrangements are excluded. A further examination of each of these stages of teacher supply at national and Victorian levels is presented below. Data on the supply of teacher graduates at a national level is provided by information about higher education enrolments and completions from Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations (DEEWR s) annual statistics collection. Completion of Initial Teaching Qualifications Australia The number of graduates of initial teaching qualifications nationally has grown from 13,17 in 21 to 17,392 in 21. Figure 4.2: Persons completing initial teacher training qualifications, Australia, 21 1 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: DEEWR Higher Education statistics, Award course completions 21: selected higher education statistics tables, http://www.deewr.gov.au/highereducation/publications/hestatistics/publications/pages/students.aspx The Victorian component was 3,592 (2.7%) (excluding Charles Sturt University reported in NSW; and Australian Catholic University reported separately). The largest provider in Victoria in 21 was Monash University with 888 graduates. a Victorian Institute of Teaching data collection 211: note change in reporting for 211, one year graduate course enrolments counted in final year only, not first year as in previous year s reports. Supply 19

Table 4.1: Course completions, by state, higher education provider for initial teacher training, 21 State/Provider Number % All New South Wales Charles Sturt University 1,68 6.1 NSW Total 5,885 33.8 Victoria Deakin University 87 4.6 La Trobe University 651 3.7 Monash University 888 5.1 RMIT University 167 1. The University of Melbourne 487 2.8 University of Ballarat 37 1.8 Victoria University 269 1.5 Other 16.1 Vic Total 3,592 2.7 Queensland 2,969 17.1 Western Australia 1,842 1.6 South Australia 1,167 6.7 Tasmania 231 1.3 Northern Territory 294 1.7 Australian Capital Territory 267 1.5 Multi-State 1,145 6.6 (Australian Catholic University) Australia 17,392 Source: Table 2, DEEWR Higher Education statistics, Award course completions 21: selected higher education statistics tables, http://www.deewr.gov.au/highereducation/publications/hestatistics/publications/pages/students.aspx Participation in Initial Teaching Programs in Victoria The Victorian Institute of Teaching provides a Victorian picture of the annual supply of graduates of initial teaching training qualifications. Pre-service teacher education courses are conducted at both the undergraduate and graduate level. Applications Applications for pre-service teaching courses in Victoria totalled 1,75 in 21 11, up from a low of nine. Figure 4.3: Applications for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, 2 1 to 21 11 14, 12, Graduate Undergraduate 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, /1 1/2 2/2 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Data Collection 211 The number of applicants for both undergraduate and graduate courses in 21/11 was lower than in 29/1 but higher than 27 9. 2 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand

Offers Over 8,1 offers were made for pre-service teaching courses in Victoria in 21 11.The number of offers have increased since 27-8. The number of undergraduate enrolments has increased over the same period. Undergraduates formed 58.4% of all offers in 21 11. Offers were made to 76% of applicants in 21 11. Figure 4.4: Offers for pre-service teaching courses, Victoria, 2-1 to 21 11 9, 8, 7, Graduate Undergraduate 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, /1 1/2 2/2 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Data Collection 211 Acceptances Acceptances have grown to an eleven year high in 21 11 (5,629). Undergraduate acceptances have grown both as a number and as a proportion of all acceptances since 2 1. Sixty-nine per cent of offers were accepted in 21 11. Figure 4.5: Acceptances for Pre-service Teaching Courses, Victoria, 2 1 to 21 11 6, 5, Graduate Undergraduate 4, 3, 2, 1, 99/ /1 1/2 2/3 3/4 4/5 5/6 6/7 7/8 8/9 9/1 1/11 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching Data Collection 211 ATAR of Undergraduate Teaching Course Accepters The proportion of students undertaking pre-service teaching courses at undergraduate level in Victoria was 52.7% in 29. 9 Some universities use applicants Australian Tertiary Admission Rank (ATAR) (previously called ENTER) score derived from their Victorian Certificate of Education (VCE) results for course selection and making offers for an undergraduate place. This applies only to some undergraduate courses and is used by universities in combination with other criteria to select from the applicant pool. In 211, 63.5% of undergraduate courses used ATAR scores during their course selection, while the remainder used other criteria. This implies that the use of ATAR scores as an indicator of Supply 21

intake quality applies to a minority of teacher education students. Although considered an indicator, care should be taken in interpreting any trended changes in the ATAR scores of student teachers as it is unclear how it might predict university performance or influence graduate teacher quality once working as a teacher. The average clearly in ATAR has declined marginally from 21 by 1.36 points, to below 7 in 211. The average ENTER score was above 7 until 26. Figure 4.6: Clearly In ENTER/ATAR for Victorian undergraduate teaching courses, 21 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching from Victorian Tertiary Admission Centre published information Enrolments First Year Enrolments in Pre-service Teaching Courses It appears there is a decrease in first year graduate course enrolments in 211, however this is a result of changes in data reporting implemented by the VIT for the first time in 211. In the past enrolments in one year courses such as Diploma of Education had been counted as both first and final year enrolments. From 211 students undertaking one year courses are counted as final year course enrolments only. In addition post graduate courses which have a duration longer than one year are also included; however they are either reflected in the first year enrolment figures or in the final year enrolment figures depending on where they are in their program cycle. Consequently the 211 results for first and final year enrolments does not form a tidy comparison in the time series with previous years. The data indicates that in 211 there was a decrease in graduate first year enrolments from 21 of, 2284. This is a factor of the reporting changes. Undergraduate first year enrolments continued to grow in 211 to a ten year high of 4,272. Figure 4.7: Persons enrolled in the first year of a teacher training qualification, Victoria, 21 11 7 6 5 Graduate Undergraduate 4 3 2 1 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 Source: Victorian Institute of Teaching, Customised Data Set, 211 22 21-211 Teacher Supply and Demand