The New Normal of Moderate Gas Prices: Challenges and Options for Gas Energy Efficiency Program Administrators September 23, 2013 Ian M. Hoffman Electricity Markets and Policy Group Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Natural Gas Prices and EE Benefits Nominal $/Mcf $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 Today s tight natural gas markets have been a long time in coming, and futures prices suggest that we are not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices anytime soon. - Allen Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman, 2003 testimony 2
$/therm, nominal Steep Drop in Gas Avoided Cost Forecasts 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Original Avoided Natural Gas Energy Costs AEO 2013 Natural Gas Price @ Henry Hub Decline in wellhead gas prices from $8.86/MMBtu in 2008 to $2.75/MMBtu in 2012 Eliminated at least 40% of system benefits for natural gas energy efficiency programs as conventionally defined depending on delivery point and forecast method 3
$Billion, nominal C/E Challenges Conflict with Savings Targets 2011 $/MMBtu LBNL Projected Spending on Customer- Funded Gas EE Programs 2010-2025 $4.0 AEO 2013: Current and Projected Wholesale Natural Gas Price to 2025 $7 $3.5 $3.0 High Case $6 $5 $2.5 $2.0 $1.5 $1.0 $0.5 Medium Case Low Case $4 $3 $2 $1 Henry Hub Spot Price $0.0 2010 2015 2020 2025 $0 2010 2015 2020 2025 4
Saving energy in a new price regime Two Policy Briefs C/E challenges Relative impacts of C/E policy changes Updating gas benefits Available at http://emp.lbl.gov/ 5
Gas Prices & C/E: A Midwest Test Case Midwest combination electric-gas utility chosen for moderate avoided costs Whole-home energy upgrade programs often on the margins of cost effectiveness and thus sensitive to gas prices Direct install plus program: o Audit, CFLs, WH wrap, pipe wrap, aerators, low-flow heads, insulation & air sealing o >70% incentive on an average project cost of about $1,400 6
Benefit/Cost Ratio Lower Avoided Costs Reduce Program Net Benefits 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 Program-Level TRC 0.4 0.2 0.0 2009 Avoided Cost Forecast 2012 Avoided Cost Forecast 7
Cost-Effectiveness Screening Policies Economic Test Discount Rate Level at Which Test is Applied 8
Benefit-Cost Ratio BCR by Level, Test and Discount Rate 2.5 Portfolio-Level SCT with 10% Externalities Adder 2.0 1.5 Portfolio-Level TRC, discounting at 2.5% (20-year Treasury Bill) Portfolio-Level TRC, discounting at 3.2% risk-free WACC Portfolio-Level TRC, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC Program-Level TRC, discounted at 3.2% risk-free WACC 1.0 Program-Level UCT/PACT, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC Program-Level TRC with water savings, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC 0.5 0.0 Program-Level TRC, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC Program-Level TRC, discounting at 8.75% before-tax WACC 9
Benefit-Cost Ratio BCR by Level, Test and Discount Rate 2.5 Portfolio-Level SCT with 10% Externalities Adder 2.0 1.5 Portfolio-Level TRC, discounting at 2.5% (20-year Treasury Bill) Portfolio-Level TRC, discounting at 3.2% risk-free WACC Portfolio-Level TRC, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC Program-Level TRC, discounted at 3.2% risk-free WACC 1.0 Program-Level UCT/PACT, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC Program-Level TRC with water savings, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC 0.5 0.0 Program-Level TRC, discounting at 7.5% after-tax WACC Program-Level TRC, discounting at 8.75% before-tax WACC 10
Additional EE Benefits for C/E Consideration Standard Benefits for Gas EE Programs: Avoided gas commodity costs Avoided gas transmission and distribution costs Less Common TRC/PAC Test Benefits: Peak T&D capacity cost reductions Reduced bad debt and collections costs Participants avoided O&M costs Water/sewer savings Other fuel savings (e.g., electricity) Benefits that are often not fully captured in conventional cost-benefit analysis: Hedge Value DRIPE Gas Transmission Capacity & Electricity Reliability Benefits Environmental Benefits Avoided Economic & Programmatic Costs of Ending/Suspending Programs Provision of Equitable Access to Energy Savings Opportunities Economic Development 11
EE s Long-Term Hedge Value Historically, natural gas prices have been volatile. Wide ranging longterm price projections remain. A range of approaches can mitigate consumer exposure to price increases, including: Storage Financial products Long term contracting Energy efficiency Historic Natural Gas Fuel Prices and Energy Information Administration Price Projections Through 2035. 12
Demand Reduction in Price Effect (DRIPE) Energy efficiency reduces the quantity of energy supplied and the price at which it is purchased DRIPE is credited as an electric EE benefit in California, parts of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest Quantification can be difficult (full market reconstruction) or relatively easy (inverse elasticity of supply) 13
EE, Gas T&D and Electricity Reliability Rise of unconventional gas exacerbating some gas T&D constraints Rising demand among generators and LDCs, e.g., Mid- Atlantic, New England, Southern California/Southwest and raising reliability concerns: Planned pipeline additions are inadequate to satisfy New England power sector gas demands on a winter peak (design) day over the next decade. (ISO-NE 2012) 14
Number of Days Thinner Margins for Gas Reliability 350 300 Number of Days with Zero Interruptible Capacity on Algonquin Mainline 292 250 200 150 100 89 50 0 19 August 2009 - July 2010 August 2010 - July 2011 August 2011- July 2012 15
Environmental Benefits of Avoided Gas Use Natural gas production has environmental impacts. The U.S. natural gas supply is expected to increasingly be met by shale gas in coming years. Shale gas production has unique environmental risks and impacts relative to conventional gas including: Uncertain GHG emissions Higher water use Greater risk of water supply contamination More significant air quality impacts Gas efficiency also leads to direct savings of water through such measures as low-flow showerheads and faucet aerators Texas 16
Costs, Risks of Stopping/Restarting Programs Three Types Erosion of cost effectiveness for other measures and programs Cutting measures or programs can shifts costs onto other measures and programs and eliminate them, e.g., fewer measures can bear the costs of administration, savings verification or energy audits necessary to identify savings opportunities Costs incurred to re-establish programs Restarting efficiency programs or portfolios at a future date would mean that utility customers would again bear the costs of hiring new staff, building networks of trade allies and customer relationships and marketing the program Missed energy savings opportunities Without programs, purchases of less efficient buildings and end uses will lock in higher levels of consumption for the facility or measure lifetime 17
Conclusions Gas efficiency program benefits as conventionally defined have fallen due to sharp declines in current and projected wholesale natural gas prices Decline in benefits coincides with rising expectations of gas efficiency programs Several considerations are available for interested regulators and PAs Changes in C/E practice, inc. shifts from program to portfolio assessment and from system to societal view Assignment of value to economic, environmental and societal benefits not typically included in C/E analysis 18
Thank You! Ian Hoffman, Mark Zimring, Merrian F. Borgeson & Steven Schiller (510) 495-2990 ihoffman@lbl.gov Research sponsored by Larry Mansueti U.S. Department of Energy Office of Electricity, National Electricity Delivery Division
Additional Slides 20
Assessing the Value of these Benefits Hedge value Quantitative: Multiple approaches, including estimated reductions in utility hedging and storage costs Downward price pressure on gas from reduced demand Easing gas transmission capacity constraints and enhancement of electricity reliability Environmental benefits Avoided economic and programmatic costs of ending/suspending programs Quantitative: Reductions in prices to consumers can be estimated from reductions in aggregate demand Quantitative: Lowering pipeline constraints can result in measurable reductions in price volatility and risk of outages or reliance on higher cost generators; avoided system capacity costs can be estimated Quantitative/Qualitative: Releases of greenhouse gases & other air pollutants and water consumption can be monetized. Other environmental impacts and risks can be weighed qualitatively Quantitative/Qualitative : Higher costs of re-establishing program infrastructure can be estimated. Lost savings opportunities can be projected against past practice baseline. 21
Natural Gas Prices and EE Benefits Nominal $/Mcf $9 $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $0 1991- First horizontal hydraulic fracturing in shale 1996 - First shale well with slickwater Today s tight natural gas markets have been a long time in coming, and futures prices suggest that we are not apt to return to earlier periods of relative abundance and low prices anytime soon. - Allen Greenspan, Federal Reserve Chairman, 2003 testimony 22
Program-Level BCR by Test and Discounting Benefit-Cost Ratio 1.6 Combined Electric & Gas Discounting at a societal rate of 2.5% (20-yr T Bill) 1.4 1.2 Discounting at an after-tax WACC of 7.5% 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 TRC TRC w/water PACT SCT w/o Non- Energy Resource Benefits SCT w/water & 10% Adder 23
BCR by Screening Level & Fuel Benefit-Cost Ratio 2.5 2.0 Total Resource Cost Test applied at: Portfolio Level 1.5 Program Level 1.0 Project Level 0.5 Measure Level (Insulation/air sealing) 0.0 Combined Electric & Gas Electric Gas 24
EE s Long Term Hedge Value A range of approaches can mitigate consumer exposure to price increases: Storage. Poorly suited to mitigate customer exposure to fundamental shifts in long-term gas market dynamics Financial products (e.g. futures, swaps, calls). Can introduce new risks to utilities and their customers prudence of strategies under regulator scrutiny and often restricted to short-term hedging Long term contracting. Few contracts are truly fixed price, and those that are have often resulted in litigation and abrogation when market dynamics fundamentally shift Energy efficiency. Modest performance risk, but EE lowers overall demand so that customers are less financially exposed to short- and long-term gas price increases 25