Opportunities and Challenges at the Gas-Electricity Nexus

Transcription

1 A P R I L 4, A U S T I N, T X Opportunities and Challenges at the Gas-Electricity Nexus University of Texas at Austin 2014 Austin Electricity Conference: Innovation & New Models for the Delivery of Electric Service Panel 3 Discussion Mark Babula P R I N C I P A L E N G I N E E R, S Y S T E M P L A N N I N G

2 Overview of Presentation Changes in Capacity and Energy Mix Yr 2000 vs Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2000 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr ISO-NE Market Changes Associated with Gas Market Coordination 2

3 Dramatic Changes in Power System Resources The resources making up the region s installed generating capacity have shifted from nuclear, oil and coal to natural gas Percent of Total System Capacity by Fuel Type (2000 vs. 2013) (23,975 MW vs. 31,759 MW) % 34% 18% 15% 22% 12% 7% 18% 11% 7% 7% 5% Nuclear Oil Coal Natural Gas Hydro and Other Renewables Pumped Storage 3

4 Dramatic Changes in the Energy Mix The fuels used to produce New England s electric energy have shifted as a result of economic and environmental factors Percent of Total Electric Energy Production by Fuel Type (2000 vs. 2013) (110,198 GWh vs. 112,940 GWh) % 31% 33% 22% 18% 15% 13% 14% <<1% 6% 1.7% 1% Nuclear Oil Coal Natural Gas Hydro and Other Renewables Pumped Storage 4

5 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2000 Limited knowledge of regional gas system due to small amount of gas-fired generation on New England electric system Electric system was primarily nuclear, coal, oil and hydro-electric Most gas-fired generation was small, non-utility generation (NUG), special qualifying facilities (SQFs/QF), totaling ~ 18% of total 2000 summer capacity (MW) Most gas-fired generators were typical dual-fuel, steam units burning either heavy/light oil and co-firing low-pressure gas behind a gas LDC citygate Few advanced combine-cycle (CC) facilities or gas turbines (GTs) located directly off the interstate pipeline system Little contact/communications between ISO-NE and regional: Gas pipelines and LDCs LNG suppliers Northeast Gas Association (NGA) Liquid fuel suppliers 5

6 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2004 After the Cold-Snap of January 2004, ISO New England established the Electric/Gas Operations Committee (EGOC) Co-chaired by ISO-NE (Mark Babula) and the Northeast Gas Association (Steve Leahy) Over 45 meetings to date Usually meets quarterly to discuss issues common to both gas and electric sectors EGOC meetings are open to all sectors with representatives from pipelines, LDCs, LNG suppliers, liquid fuel suppliers, NYISO & PJM, NERC/NPCC, regional generators, etc. EGOC meeting agendas, minutes and materials all publically posted on the ISO-NE web site located at: Typical topics of discussion include: - Pre- and post-seasonal assessments - Electric and gas sector maintenance - Upcoming regional seminars, conferences, and training 6

7 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2013 ISO-NE Operational Changes Moved the Day-Ahead Market (DAM) schedule timelines to accommodate long-lead-time generating resources Moved the Resource Adequacy Assessment (RAA) process to better match the natural gas Evening nomination/confirmation cycles Subscribe to various gas sector services: Platts Gas Daily national and regional gas sector news/prices Genscape gas pipeline flow information used to execute Nomination Reports for the current and future gas day Intercontinental Gas Exchange (ICE) - for next and intra-day bid/ask pricing information 7

8 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2014 ISO-NE Forecast Department Assesses the Day-Ahead Market results and prepares information for delivery to each of the five gas pipelines serving the region Computes hourly gas consumption by applying unit specific heat rates Combines hourly gas consumption for the electric sector by pipeline Transmits both unit-specific and combined-fuel consumption to each pipeline If there are any perceived issues, contacts the gas control department of each pipeline to verify whether the electric sector fuel consumption can be accommodated (in addition to the core gas sector deliveries) Based on those discussions, may revise the next-day operating plan 8

9 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2014 Gas Users Tool within the ISO-NE Forecast Office Developed internally by ISO-NE Operations Support Team Daily scraping of the five EBBs of the interstate gas pipelines serving New England Aggregates scheduled deliveries of gas for: Each gas LDC (citygate meters) All regional commercial and industrial loads All non-electric sector delivery points Estimates the remaining gas pipeline capacity, by individual pipe, for use by the electric power sector Overlays the daily, 14-hour (10:00 am midnight) burn profiles of all gas-fired generators by pipeline to see if the electric sector demand can be accommodated The potential over-consumption of gas gives the ISO-NE Forecast Office a heads up to possibly modify the next-day operating plan 9

10 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2014 ISO-NE Forecast Department Annual face-to-face meetings with representatives of regional gas control (pipelines) to review and understand each pipeline s maintenance schedule for the upcoming period (Spring/Summer/Fall) Provides the pipelines with the most recent ISO-NE gas-fired generator maintenance schedules Looking to coordinate both gas and generator maintenance Some gas-fired generation may be deemed must-run to support local area needs or transmission security Reviews gas pipeline maintenance schedules to determine unavailable gas pipeline capacity and the resulting impacts on gas-fired generation and operable capacity 10

11 Gas-Electric Nexus in New England in Yr 2014 Over 30 studies done by ISO-NE since 2000 to determine/understand: Regional pipeline capacity and LDC operations Dual-fuel capability Environmental review of generators (air, water, and fuel permits) Liquid fuel analysis and regional storage capability Over 10 studies participated in by ISO-NE in coordination with NYISO, PJM, Ontario, TVA, and MISO: Multi-regional static/transient hydraulic natural gas studies NERC/NPCC natural gas assessments Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) Gas-Electric System Interface Study 11

12 ISO Market Changes Associated with Gas Market Coordination Moved deadline(s) for the Day-Ahead Market Completed May 2013 Moved latest commitments from 10 PM to 5 PM (Slide 7) Allow offers from generators to reflect different on- and off-peak prices Targeted for December 2014 Allow resources to change offers during the operating day to reflect volatile gas prices Targeted for December 2014 Enhance incentives within the Forward Capacity Market (FCM) to strengthen fuel supply arrangements ISO s Pay-for-Performance proposal pending at FERC and targeted for the 9 th Forward Capacity Auction, which procures capacity resources for the period of June 2018 to May

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