Winter 214-215 Overall Spend Organic Domestic Growth for Ad Agency Holding Companies Organic Revenue Growth Industry Research Update Media 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Havas, Interpublic Group, Omnicom, Publicis and WPP; GE Capital analysis 3.1% 3.7%.9% 2.7% 4.5% 3.2% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% Key Developments The overall domestic ad spend growth rate remained strong in 3Q although the aggregate growth rate for consumer spending on media & entertainment declined to less than 1%, primarily due to the decline in expenditures on Internet access. Internet advertising continues to grow at a double-digit pace, far outpacing growth of the broader ad sector, driven by rising mobile advertising. Monthly unique visitors to Internet sites, from PCs, remains higher, despite increasing mobile access capturing additional trafficand negatively impacting monthly average visits from a PC. Radio broadcasters revenues remain effectively flat in the past few years while digital revenues continued to grow double digit, but longer term growth is threatened by growing Internet substitutes. Tracked TV broadcasters revenues grew primarily driven by strong M&A activity and retransmission fees. Organic ad growth appears to be closer to flat to very low single digit. Disclosures from public companies indicated Y/Y revenue in outdoor advertising rose 2.5%. Lamar reported occupancy levels for bulletins and posters were up slightly Y/Y but bulletin pricing remains lower. Organic domestic growth rates of the major ad agency holding companies in the US grew by a median of 4.7% in 3Q14, marking a third quarter of improvement in the growth rate, driven by high single digit US organic growth at both Omnicom and Interpublic. Advertising spending has historically had a high correlation to overall GDP growth. % Industry Research Update: Media 1 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Overall Spend (cont.) Winter 214-215 Breakout of Ad Spend Revenues (Billions) 6 5 4 3 2 Source: SNL 44.3 43.3 42.7 44. 42.2 4.2 35.1 36.6 36.7 33.2 34.4 32.8 21.6 19.9 18.9 15.5 15.3 15.4 212 213 214 Cable TV and Internet advertising continue to grow (with mobile now boosting Internet ad growth), while TV broadcasters benefitted in 212 from Olympic and political spending and direct mail and radio have held up fairly well in the short term despite longer-term forecasts that expect declines. 1 6.4.9 4.1 9.79.59.2 6.67.7.2 Internet Cable TV Direct Mail News. Bcast TV Radio Yellow Pgs Magazines Outdoor Aggregate Growth for Consumer Spending on Media & Entertainment 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 5.8% 7.6% 8.1% 6.9% 7.1% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis & GE Capital analysis 5.4% 2.3% 1.1%.3% Based upon data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, consumers media and entertainment expenditures, on a seasonally adjusted annualized rate basis, totaled $47 billion in 3Q14, up less than.5% from 1Q13. The decline in annual growth during the past several quarters has been solely related to PCE declines in Internet access spending. Industry Research Update: Media 2 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Overall Spend (cont.) Winter 214-215 Ad Spending Closely Correlated to GDP 15% Source:Bureau of EconomicAnalysis, VSS, GE Capital Overall ad spending and GDP have an 83% correlation with each other. (Real) 5% -5% 1976 1982 1988 1994 2 26 212-15% Advertising GDP Breakout of Consumer Spend on Media & Entertainment (Billions $, SAAR) 12 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and GE Capital analysis Revenues (Billions, Seasonally Adjusted) 1 8 6 4 2 3Q9 3Q14 Media and entertainment expenditures have been divided into eight broad categories. Compared to 5 years ago, seven are up, with CAGRs ranging from -1.8% for home video to a high of 9.4% for periodicals. Overall, spending has improved at a 5.3% CAGR over the past 5 years. Live Entertain. Movies Home Video Music Periodicals Books Pay TV Internet Access Industry Research Update: Media 3 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Internet Access and Use Internet access continues migrating to wireline broadband and next-gen wireless. Service providers are evolving customer plans to capitalize on the migration. Average monthly visits to Internet sites via a PC have declined in recent years, cannibalized by mobile, although monthly unique visitors continue improving. Winter 214-215 Consumer Broadband Subscribers Mobile Handsets in Use (Millions) Consumer Broadband Subs (Millions) 1 Source: SNL Kagan & GECA Estimates 4.6 8 3.8 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.7 6 4.4 43. 45.8 47.9 49.8 4 2 27.5 27.6 28.2 28.8 29.5 29 21 211 212 213 Fixed Wireless & Satellite FTTH Cable DSL Consumer Mobile Handsets 25 Source: 451 Research 2 45.3 7.9 15 13.3 158.1 18.8 1 146.6 158.1 164.4 143.5 134.2 5 81.6 52.2 37.3 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Advanced OS Smart Feature Basic Tier Consumer Mobile Subscriptions 3 Source: 451 Research 25 2 51.4 78. 74.3 124. 9. 93.8 15 129.1 83.6 1 139. 141.9 72.2 171.4 122.9 128. 5 93.5 86.5 7.7 56.1 36.1 19.8 1.5 5.9 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 2G 3G 3.5G 4G Monthly Unique Visitors 23 Source: comscore Mobile Subscribers (Millions) Monthly Unique Visitors (Millions) 22 21 221 223 224 225 227 228 224 226 2 19 18 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Monthly Unique Users % of Population 72% 71% 7% 69% 68% % of Population Average Monthly Visits Average Monthly Visits per Visitor 1 Source: comscore 8 6 4 86 74 74 74 73 73 69 71 2 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Average Monthly Visits per Visitor YoY Change 9% 6% 3% % -3% -6% -9% YoY Change -12% -15% -18% Broadband customer connections increased 4.1% to 87.6 million in 213 and are expected to have increased an additional 3.3% to 9.5 in 214. Wireless broadband is becoming an increasingly competitive substitute for DSL in rural markets and operators have petitioned regulators for relief from using copper based technology to offer carrier-of-last-resort services. AT&T s FTTN strategy is included as DSL, as last mile remains copper based. Consumer mobile phone handsets are expected to have rebounded in 214, after declining by roughly 2 million during 213, even as customers migrated to faster networks. Operators continue to alter pricing plans to become more data centric and device agnostic to encourage overall usage increases. Average monthly visits to the top1 websites from a PC continued to deteriorate YoYin 3Q14, likely attributable to cannibalization from mobile Internet access. However, unique visitors have continued to increase. 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Industry Research Update: Media 4
Internet Monetization Winter 214-215 Internet advertising grew 17% in 3Q14 to $12.4 billion, faroutpacing overall domestic ad revenue growth, led by growth at Facebook and growth in mobile advertising. E-Commerce revenues grew 16% in 3Q14, continuing to gain market share on traditional retail. Mobile ad revenues are rapidly garnering increased market share of total spending as consumer habits evolve. Internet Ad Revenues Quarterly Ad Revenues (Billions) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) 9.3 1.3 9.6 1.3 1.6 12.1 11.4 11.7 12.4 Internet Ad Revenues YoY Change Net Advertising Revenues for Major Players (Excluding TAC) Net Ad Revenues in US (Billions) E-Commerce Revenues E-Commerce Revenues (Billions) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: IDC.64 3.8.62.64 57. 59.9 61.9 64.8 67.3 69.2 71.5 75.1 78.1 E-Commerce.64.64 4.18 4.4 4.7 4.23.75 Source: US Census Bureau, GE Capital analysis.6.53 4.75 4.59 4.6 % of Total Retail.54 4.78.55.59.52.68.79 1.1.98 1.11 1.29.74.79.79.82.81.85.82.83.8.22.27.23.23.24.3.24.24.24 Yahoo! Google Facebook ebay AOL 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % 7.% 6.5% 6.% 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% 3.% YoY Change % of Total Retail Shifting Composition of Internet Advertising Revenues % of Internet Advertising Revenues Source: Interactive Advertising Bureau and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) 8% 7% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 18% 2% 13% 1% 1% 8% 7% 6% 4% 39% 45% 47% 46% 47% 46% 43% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 6% 1% 16% 32% 32% 33% 35% 38% 35% 32% 31% 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Lead Gen. Class. & Directories Search Mobile, Email & Other Display 3Q14 Net Advertising Growth for Major Players 8% Source: IDC 63.3% 6% 4% 2% % 13.% 11.4%.% -1.2% -2% -15.6% AOL ebay Facebook Google Microsoft Yahoo! E-Commerce Growth 25% Source: US Census Bureau, GE Capital analysis 2% 18.6% 17.6% 17.9% 16.1% 16.7% 15.7% 15.5% 15.8% 16.1% Yoy Change 15% 1% 5% 4.3% 3.9% 3.3% 4.% 4.% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 1.7% % E-Commerce Traditional Retail 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved. Industry Research Update: Media 5
Internet Advertising EBITDA Remains Under Pressure Winter 214-215 Internet Advertising LTM Gross Profits LTM Gross Profits (Millions) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, Source: Company filings for ten mid-sized advertising-supported public companies; GE Capital analysis 3,324 3,422 3,54 3,582 3,631 3,625 3,66 3,666 3,72 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 6% Based on analysis of mid-sized public Internet companies, LTM gross profits continue improving, driven by double-digit revenue increases as well as margin improvement to over 64%. Internet advertising revenues have surpassed ad dollars generated by broadcast television on an annual basis. 1,5 LTM Gross Profits 59% Internet Advertising LTM EBITDA LTM EBITDA (Millions) 1, 8 6 Source: Company filings for ten mid-sized advertising-supported public companies; GE Capital analysis 85 843 877 917 961 939 94 856 799 18% 16% 14% 12% Aggregate LTM EBITDA has been under pressure primarily due to declines at IAC Interactive following mid-213 policy changes at Google with regard to search monetization, which lead to lower CPC. 4 1% 2 LTM EBITDA 8% Internet Advertising LTM EBITDA LTM Capital Expenditures LTM EBITDA - Capex (Millions) 9 7 5 3 Source: Company filings for ten mid-sized advertising-supported public companies; GE Capital analysis 686 683 693 726 764 746 729 681 629 14% 12% 1% LTM untaxed and unlevered FCF for the 1 publicly traded mid-sized operators was $629 million in 3Q14, down again sequentially. IAC Interactive was the largest contributor to the sequential decline in LTM EBITDA. Beginning in 3Q13 IAC has seen revenue shortfalls which were fueled by search and monetization algorithm changes at Google that impacted revenue in their Search & Applications segment. 1 LTM EBITDA - CAPEX 8% Industry Research Update: Media 6 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Radio Broadcasting Radio industry revenues continue to remain essentially flat, according to the Radio Advertising Bureau, reflecting continued underperformance annually against the broader advertising industry. Digital continues to take a larger share of radio revenue but remains a small portion of total revenue with heightened concerns about competitive pressures from Internet radio. Winter 214-215 Radio Industry Revenues M&A Deal Volume Quarterly Revenues (Billions) 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Source: Radio Advertising Bureau 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.3 3.5 3.5 4.3 4.3 5% 3% 1% -1% -3% M&A Deal Voume (Billions) 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 Source: SNL 2.1.9 2.1.7 3. 1. 1..9 15.x 12.x 9.x Average CF Multiple. Radio Industry Revenues YoY Change -5%. 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 YTD- Sept 14 Deal Volume Average CF Multiple 6.x Digital Revenues Quarterly Revenues (Millions) 32 28 24 2 16 12 8 4 Source: Radio Advertising Bureau 244 244 25 26 222 179 27 242 271 6.5% 6.% 5.5% 5.% 4.5% 4.% 3.5% % of Terrestrial Radio REvenues Radio industry revenues were essentially flat for 213 and remained there for the majority of 214. Digital revenues continue to improve Y/Y at a brisk pace. Following a resurgence of deal activity in 211, with $3 billion of total deal volume (most notably Cumulus Media s $2.3 billion purchase of Citadel Broadcasting), deal activity has returned to a more modest pace for the past few years, closer to $1 billion. Digtial Revenues % of Terrestrial Radio Revenues 3.% Industry Research Update: Media 7 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Radio Broadcasting Profits Winter 214-215 LTM Radio Gross Profits LTM Gross Profits (Millions)) 9 75 6 45 3 15 Source: Company filings for Beasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One, Salem Communications, Saga Communications; GE Capital analyses 761 72 692 696 687 723 728 714 682 5% 47% 44% 41% 38% Based on analysis of select public radio companies financial filings, LTM gross profits remained roughly flat in 213 as the boost from the auto ad spending recovery and two large acquisitions were completed. Gross profit declines, which began in 4Q13 are largely attributed to Cumulus divestiture of nearly 7 radio stations to Townsquare Media. 35% LTM Gross Profits LTM Radio EBITDA LTM EBITDA (Millions) 7 6 5 4 3 Source: Company filings for Beasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One, Salem Communications, Saga Communications; GE Capital analyses 65 539 533 545 534 513 512 493 463 4% 36% 32% 28% LTM EBITDA for public radio companies has been a bit choppy, however the majority of the decline are related to Cumulus divestitures which have negatively impacted reported LTM EBITDA. 2 24% 1 LTM EBITDA 2% LTM Radio EBITDA LTM Capital Expenditures 7 6 Source: Company filings for Beasley Broadcast, Cumulus, Radio One, Salem Communications, Saga Communications; GE Capital analyses 34% 32% LTM EBITDA - Capex (Millions) 5 4 3 2 1 575 58 53 512 54 475 472 448 415 3% 28% 26% 24% 22% LTM EBITDA - CAPEX 2% Industry Research Update: Media 8 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Television Broadcasting Stations Television broadcasting revenue continued to grow at a modest pace in 3Q14, as numerous acquisitions and retransmission revenue continue to boosts results. Organic ad revenue growth is likely in the low single digits. Secular growth of retransmission fees continues unabated. Auto ad revenue growth indicated YoYdeclines in 3Q. Declining audiences and changing viewer habits pose a threat to the business model and M&A has notably increased. Winter 214-215 Retranmission Revenue (Millions) Television Broadcasting Revenue Growth 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 36.7% 56.% 26.6% 24.4% 22.5% 9.9% 31.% 3.2% 36.7% Retransmission Fee Growth 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: SNL, GE Capital estimate 4.% 4.1% 38.% 34.% 3.% Source: Earnings transcripts for Nexstar, Sinclair, LIN, Gray 49.3% 39.9% 37.5% 38.8% Retransmission Fee Projected Growth 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Source: SNL Kagan, GE Capital Analysis 29 21 211 212 213 214E Retransmission Fees Growth Rate Retransmission fees grew 38.8% in 3Q14. Retransmission fees continue to increase at significant rates as broadcasters seek additional broadcast rights for content. GECA industry research expects distributors to seek increased surcharges for higher cost content to recoup some expenses even as they prepare for an increasingly OTT world. 75% 6% 45% 3% 15% % Growth Automotive Advertising Growth 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% M&A Deal Voume (Billions) 15 12 25.% 9 6 3 Source: SNL 2.8 7.% 5.4% 4.% 4.3% 5.7% 4.% 4.% 8.4 Source: SNL, Earnings transcripts for Nexstar, Sinclair, LIN and Gray 9.9.6.6.2 1.2 2. 11.4 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 YTD- Sept Deal Volume Average CF Multiple 14-3.5% M&A Deal Volume Auto Advertising Tracked broadcast television stations reported revenue improvement in 3Q14 but low organic ad revenue growth has been boosted by robust retransmission revenue and M&A activity. Essentially all of Y/Y growth is due to acquisitions, primarily by Sinclair. Retransmission fees and digital have also been a large contributor to improvement. If we attempt to back out acquired growth, we estimate organic growth close to the 1-2% range. Auto advertising growth was down 3.5% in 3Q14, as auto ad spending has been pared back across several mediums including radio and TV. 7. 2.x 15.x 1.x 5.x.x Average CF Multiple Industry Research Update: Media 9 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Television Broadcasting Station Profits Winter 214-215 TV Broadcasting Stations Gross Profits LTM Gross Profits (Millions) 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1,2 9 6 Source: Company filings for Nexstar Broadcast, Sinclair Broadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE Capital analysis 1,297 1,515 1,586 1,654 1,7 1,684 1,785 1,89 2,37 7% 65% 6% 55% 5% 45% Based on our analysis of public TV station owners financial filings, LTM gross profits improved 7.8% sequentially in Q3, driven by retransmission increases around renewals. LTM gross profit increased 2% over Q3 213, with the increase primarily related to acquisitions in 213 and retransmission fee increases. 3 LTM Gross Profits 4% TV Broadcasting Stations EBITDA LTM EBITDA (Millions) 1,2 1,1 1, 9 8 7 6 5 Source: Company filings for Nexstar Broadcast, Sinclair Broadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE Capital analysis 781 953 974 995 983 919 969 1,23 1,126 45% 4% 35% 3% LTM EBITDA for public TV stations owners increased 1% sequentially to $1.126 billion in 3Q14 as the comparison period gets easier and high margin incremental revenue continues to flow to the cash flow line. 4 LTM EBITDA 25% TV Broadcasting Stations EBITDA Capital Expenditures LTM EBITDA - Capital Expenditures (Millions) 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Source: Company filings for Nexstar Broadcast, Sinclair Broadcast, LIN TV, Salem; GE Capital analysis 673 836 853 861 845 LTM EBITDA - CAPEX 781 824 873 951 38% 34% 3% 26% LTM EBITDA less capital expenditures (our proxy measure for untaxed and unlevered FCF) continued to rebound, up 12.5% year over year. Industry Research Update: Media 1 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Outdoor Winter 214-215 3Q14 represented another difficult quarter for the outdoor industry, as changing contract terms and increased digital by national advertisers impact revenue. While occupancy levels for posters and bulletins at Lamar were slightly better YoY, poster pricing improved but bulletin pricing was closer to 29 levels. Outdoor Industry Revenues Occupancy Levels Quarterly Revenues (Billions) 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 Source: Outdoor Advertising Association of America 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 2.2 1.6 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 9% 75% 6% Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Lamar Advertising. Pricing for Posters $49 Source: Quarterly earnings $47 presentations from Lamar Advertising $45 Outdoor Industry Revenues YoY Change % 45% Pricing for Bulletins $1,3 $1,25 $1,2 Bulletins Source: Quarterly earnings presentations from Lamar Advertising Posters $43 $1,15 $41 $1,1 $39 $37 $35 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 $1,5 $1, $95 $9 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Revenues from outdoor industry public companies including Lamar, Clear Channel Outdoor and Outdoor Media (previously CBS Outdoor) indicate a 2.5% Y/Y revenue increase in 3Q. Clear Channel has been impacted by offline digital assets as well as national advertisers beginning to push shorter more flexible contract terms similar to advertising on social media. Lamar s quarterly conference call indicated occupancy levels for bulletins and posters were up slightly Y/Ybut bulletin pricing remains subdued. Industry Research Update: Media 11 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.
Outdoor Advertising Profits Winter 214-215 Outdoor LTM EBITDA LTM EBITDA (Millions) 1,7 1,6 1,5 Source: Company filings for Clear Channel Outdoor, Lamar Advertising, Outdoor Media; GE Capital analysis 1,643 1,64 1,661 1,657 1,655 1,653 1,648 1,646 34% 32% 3% Based on public outdoor companies financial filings, LTM EBITDA was down slightly to the same period last year at $1.646 billion. 1,4 28% 1,3 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 LTM EBITDA 26% Outdoor LTM EBITDA Capital Expenditures LTM EBITDA - Capital Expenditures (Millions) 1,4 1,25 1,1 95 8 65 5 Source: Company filings for Clear Channel Outdoor, Lamar Advertising, Outdoor Media; GE Capital analysis 1,223 1,233 1,3 1,37 1,29 1,29 1,265 1,247 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 LTM EBITDA - CAPEX 3% 25% 2% 15% LTM EBITDA less capital expenditures (our proxy for unlevered, pre-tax FCF) declined slightly, based on lower EBITDA and higher capex, to $1.247 billion. GE Capital is an extension of GE s rich heritage of building and supporting growth. Investing in the sectors we know best, we can provide more than just financing: We bring insight, knowledge and expertise to every loan. And as a result, businesses that finance with GE Capital benefit from the global know-how and expertise of GE. gecapital.com This publication provides general information and should not be used or taken as business, financial, tax, accounting, legal or other advice. It has been prepared without regard to the circumstances and objectives of anyone who may review it; therefore, you should not rely on this publication in place of expert advice or the exercise of your independent judgment. The views expressed in this publication reflect those of the authors and contributors and not necessarily the views of General Electric Capital Corporation or any of its affiliates (together, GE ). GE does not guarantee that the information contained in this publication is reliable, accurate, complete or current, and GE assumes no responsibility to update or amend the publication. GE makes no representation or warranties of any kind whatsoever regarding the contents of this publication, and accepts no liability of any kind for any loss or harm arising from the use of the information contained in this publication. GE, General Electric Company, General Electric, General Electric Capital Corporation, the GE Logo, and various other marks and logos used in this publication are registered trademarks, trade names and service marks of General Electric Company. You may not use, reproduce, or redistribute this publication, any part of this publication, or any trademark or trade name without the written permission of GE. Disclaimer:Although General Electric Capital Corporation ( GE ) believes that the information contained in this newsletter has been obtained from and is based upon sources GE believes to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. GE makes no representation or warranties of any kind whatsoever in respect of such information. GE accepts no liability of any kind for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this newsletter. This newsletter is not to be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of your independent judgment or legal advice. GE Capital Industry Research Contact Ben Abramovitz, CFA Telecommunications & Media Ben.Abramovitz@ge.com 646-428-7129 Industry Research Update: Media 12 214 General Electric Capital Corporation, All Rights Reserved.