Small Business Tracker Summer 2015

Small Business Tracker Summer 2015

The Everline Small Business Growth Index The Everline Small Business Growth Index drops slightly but remains robust The index dropped from 111.5 in the final quarter of 2014 to 109.8 in Q1 2015. While the fall suggests a slight slowdown in growth, the reading remains around the 110 level which indicates a strong trading environment for small businesses. Small business confidence relatively flat in recent quarters The Federation of Small Business confidence index stood at +28.7 in Q1 2015. This rose from the previous quarter but was lower than the level recorded in Q1 2014. Further growth in sales volumes for small retailers Small businesses in the retail sector recorded a 3.7% year-on-year increase in sales volumes in Q1 2015. This is slower than previous readings but the rate of growth remains robust. Cost pressures easing Headline inflation in the UK turned negative in April for the first time since 1960. With the fall in oil prices playing a key role in this slowdown, SME cost pressures have eased considerably. Insolvencies down sharply compared with a year ago The number of businesses filing for insolvency in the first quarter of 2015 was 15.2% lower than the level recorded in the same period of 2014. As expected, improvements in credit availability slowed in Q1 The availability of credit to small businesses increased by just 0.6% in the first quarter of 2015, well down on the rates of growth seen during 2014.

The Everline Small Business Growth Index 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Note: 100.0 represents average growth for the period 2006 2011 (i.e. the 2008/09 recession and two years either side). Readings above 110 represent very strong growth, readings below 95 point towards contraction.

The Everline Small Business Employment Index The Everline Small Business Employment Index rises again The index climbed to a new high of 114.0 in Q1 2015, up from 111.9 in the final quarter of last year. The reading indicates that the hiring environment for small firms has continued to strengthen. Vacancies hit 13 year high The number of job vacancies at small businesses increased by 31% in 12 months to Q1 2015 according to the Office for National Statistics. The Everline Small Business Employment Index 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Note: 100.0 represents average growth for the period 2006 2011 (i.e. the 2008/09 recession and two years either side). Readings above 110 represent very strong growth, readings below 95 point towards contraction.

The Sharper Focus: London - GB gap set to widen Gap between London small businesses and those in the North set to more than double over the next 10 years Despite the government s Summer Budget pledge to put the power into the Northern Powerhouse, the gap between London s small businesses and those in the North looks set to more than double in the next decade. London s small businesses expect revenues to increase over the next ten years by an average of 44% to 528,000 in 2025 - twice the turnover expected by small business leaders in the North, who on average expect growth of just 33% to 263,000 in the same period. Businesses in the South (excluding London) most pessimistic about growth prospects Business decision makers in the South (excluding London) are the most pessimistic about their growth prospects with almost a quarter predicting zero turnover by 2025. The average small business in this region expects 33% or 61,000 growth. This is followed by growth expectations of 31% or 63,000 in the Midlands and 37% or 80,000 in Scotland. Average small business expected to increase annual turnover by over 82k over the next 10 years On average, decision makers at British small businesses expect that their company s turnover will increase by over 36% in the next 10 years. With an average turnover of around 225k, this means that the typical firm expects revenues to increase by over 82k by 2025. Annual turnover expected to increase by almost twice the British average in London over the next 10 years Given that the average turnover of small businesses in London is already more than 80% higher than that of other regions, businesses in the capital look set to move further ahead of the rest of Britain, with revenues forecast to increase by around 162k by 2025 compared to the 82k increase expected around the country as a whole. General expectations for growth by 2025 relatively pessimistic compared with the past decade Respondents across Britain expect that their company s turnover will increase by just under 3.2% a year on average over the next 10 years. However, data from the ICAEW/Grant Thornton Business Confidence Monitor, which includes the impact of the financial crisis, suggests that small businesses averaged an increase of 3.7% over the past decade. Firms in the services sector are most confident about the prospects for the next 10 years Media/Marketing/PR & Sales are the most confident industry expecting revenues to increase by over 45% by 2025. The manufacturing and construction sectors are more pessimistic, projecting a 29% and 28% increase respectively.

Predicted total turnover in 2025 by region vs current turnover 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 South North Midlands Scotland GB London Current Level Growth to 2025 Source: Cebr analysis, Everline/YouGov survey, BIS

Average expected percentage increase in turnover in ten years time, by industry 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Source: Cebr analysis, Everline/YouGov survey

The Sharper Focus: digital ambitions Small businesses devote over 3 billion hours to online activities each year. A fifth however spend no time at all online Almost 8 out of every 10 small businesses (over 4.1 million businesses) devote time to online activities such as e-commerce, web advertising or social media. The average small business spends around 17.9% of man hours on online activities. This equates to almost 14 hours per week for the average small business. However, a fifth still devote no time at all to online, including e-commerce. This figure rises to 30% in the Midlands. Average small business (10-49 employees) made 810k in revenue from e-commerce sales in 2013. 19.3% of small businesses (10-49 employees) sold products/services over e-commerce channels in 2013 according to the Office for National Statistics. These small businesses generated 30.5bn of e-commerce sales, with just under two-thirds coming from website sales. 1.5 million small businesses have no plans to increase their online activities over the next 10 years Despite the growing importance of the digital economy, over 30% of small businesses either had no plans to increase their online resources or planned to reduce expenditure. Northern businesses least likely to invest in digital over next decade Over a third of small businesses in the North dedicate only a fraction of their financial resource to digital activities and plan to reduce or keep online expenditure flat over the next 10 years. This compares with just over a quarter of London businesses who said the same. Small business investment in online activities constrained by financing and skills 10% of small businesses wished to increase their online resources but did not have the financial means to do so. 11% felt they did not have the necessary skills to do so. Share of respondents viewing online activities as more important than offline highest in London Over a third (36%) of small businesses in the capital view online activities as more important than offline. This compares with 28% of small businesses in the North, 30% in the Midlands, 27% in Scotland and 26% in the South. Small businesses in the manufacturing, finance and accounting sectors are the least acquainted with online activities Around 34% of businesses surveyed in these sectors dedicate only a fraction of their resources to online activities and have no plans to do more in the next 10 years. This compares with 17% of businesses in media, marketing, PR and sales.

Number of hours spent on online activities, including e-commerce sales per business by industry 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: Cebr analysis, Everline/YouGov survey, ONS, BIS Proportion of businesses making e-commerce sales by size of business, 2013 1000+ employees 250-999 employees 50-249 employees 10-49 employees 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: Cebr analysis, ONS, BIS

Share of respondents whose business dedicates only a fraction of their financial resources to online activities, and has no plans to do more online activities in the next 10 years London South Midlands Scotland North Media/ markenng/ PR & sales IT & telecoms Retail ConstrucNon Finance and AccounNng Manufacturing Total 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Source: Cebr analysis, Everline/YouGov survey