Moderate Income Households and Housing in San Francisco Ted Egan, Ph.D., Chief Economist Controller s Office of Economic Analysis September 19, 2011
Income Distribution in San Francisco and the Bay Area 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 24% 2 7 % Distribution of Population by Household Income Category, San Francisco and Remainder of Bay -9 Area, 2005 19% 1 6 % 16% 1 5 % Bay Area except SF Extremely/Very Low <5 Low (50-8) Moderate (80-12) Middle (120-15) Upper (15)+ SF 11% 1 0 % 26% 2 8 % Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005-9 5 year sample / IPUMS 2
Adult Labor Force Status by HH Income Category, SF and Bay Area 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Not SF SF 49% 4 5 % Labor Force Participation Rates: Adults by Household Income Category, -9 2005 66% 6 9 % 72% Extremely/Very Low Low Moderate Middle Upper 7 6 % 76% 8 2 % 73% 8 0 % Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005-9 5 year sample / IPUMS 3
Place of Work for Employed Adults Residing in San Francisco, by Household Income Category 82% Percent of Employed SF Residents who work in San Francisco, By Household Income Category, -9 2005 78% Extremely/Very Low Low Moderate Middle Upper 76% 73% 69% Source: U.S. Census American Community Survey 2005-9 5 year sample / IPUMS 4
Typical Occupations at Various AMI Levels in San Francisco Typical Occupations 5 AMI Hotel Desk Clerk 6 AMI Medical Assistant 7 AMI Billing and Posting Clerks 8 AMI Cement Masons 9 AMI Bus & Truck Mechanics 10 AMI Legal Secretaries 11 AMI Compensation, Benefits, and Job Analysis Specialists 12 AMI Public Relations Specialists 14 AMI Clinical, Counseling, and School Psychologists 15 AMI Civil Engineers 16 AMI Dental Hygienists 17 AMI Software Developers, Systems Software 18 AMI Financial Analysts 19 AMI Pediatricians, General 20 AMI Dentists, General 5
Housing Production and RHNA Needs Annual San Francisco Housing Production -2008, 2000 and Annual Needs per RHNA -1 4 2007 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 All Other Units Moderate 2,000 Low Very Low 1,500 1,000 500 0 Production RHNA Needs 6
Percentage of Rental Vacancies Affordable for Different Income Groups in San Francisco 15 125% 10 75% 5 25% % of 3BR Newly -Vacant SF Rental Units Affordable -Person to a 4 Household, Varying Income Levels, -2011 2006 15 of AMI 12 of AMI 8 of AMI 5 of AMI 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 A unit is considered affordable for an income level if its asking rent is less than 33% of the monthly household income. Source for average San Francisco asking rent for 3-bedroom units: Craigslist. 7
Affordability of Market-Rate Housing for 10 AMI Households in San Francisco 12 10 8 6 4 2 Maximum Affordable House, -Person 4 Household at 10 AMI, as a Percentage of Average San Francisco -2011 3BR Price, 1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Maximum Affordable House assumes 1 down, 9 mortgage financing at average mortgage rate for that year, with 33% of household income used for mortgage payments. Source for average San Francisco housing price for 3-bedroom units: Zillow. 8
Affordability of Market-Rate Housing for 10 AMI Households Around the Bay Area 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Maximum Affordable House, -Person 4 Household at 10 AMI (SF), as % of Average 3BR Housing Prices in Selected Bay Area -2011Counties, 1996 Solano Alameda Santa Clara Marin San Francisco 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Maximum Affordable House assumes 1 down, 9 mortgage financing at average mortgage rate for that year, with 33% of household income used for mortgage payments. Source for housing prices for 3-bedroom units: Zillow. 9