New study: Career paths How to successfully manage the critical first post-graduate years Rasmus Conradsen AC (Denmark) email: rc@ac.dk
Agenda 1. Background, purpose, method 2. Mobility among graduates 3. Decisive factors for your career in terms of development in your wage ------ 5. How are graduates career paths affected by economic cycles - what happens when a period of economic slump sets in?
Background 2002-2003: Danish crises in the labour market for higher educated Period of economic slump in the private sector as a result of the globally sluggish times after 9/11 New government: Employment stop in the public sector due to cost cuts The unemployment rate sky rocketed Thousands of newly graduated met a very closed labour market with few jobs opportunities
Study focus What happened to the graduates from 2002? A lost generation? How did they managed? Compared to the graduates from 1997 (a year with historically low unemployment rates in Denmark)
Collected data on Job The Studietiden study years Job - - søgning seeking The Det first job første job The Videre career job- og paths karriere the - first approx. udvikling 10 de years første 10 år Possible periods of unemployment during the years
40% 35% How long did you stay in your first job? 1997 (N=1460) 2002 (N=1653) 32% 30% 25% 20% 20% 18% 15% 16% 14% 16% 15% 16% 14% 10% 9% 8% 5% 5% 5% 3% 6% 0% Still in first job 0-6 7-12 13-24 25-36 37-48 1% 49-60 0% 0% 61-72 More than 72
How many jobs did you have since your graduation? 40% 36% 36% 1997(N=1465) 2002 (N=1656) 35% 30% 25% 25% 26% 20% 17% 19% 17% 15% 10% 6% 8% 6% 5% 1% 1% 0% 1 job 2 job 3 job 4 job 5 job over 5 job
Why did shift you job? Wanted shorter working time 6% 1997 (N=1233) 5% 2002 (N=1127) Wanted to be manager 10% 5% Blev udnævnt til jobbet Was stressed out in former job 8% 8% 9% 8% Better worklife balance- Ønskede et bedre arbejdsklima Wanted / a new boss 13% 12% 15% 14% 18% 15% Wanted to work with other higher educated Wanted more selfdetermination/more responsibility / Wanted more wage 13% 17% 23% 21% 18% 22% Wanted to use the, skills from the education more 23% 31% The contract ended/fired / 26% 35% 0% 20% 40%
Wage: Theoretical expectations Background variables Gender Køn Age Alder Career Motivation Motiver for for jobskifte shift No. Antal of jobskifte shifts Unemployment Periods Ledighedslængde of unemploy. Subsidised Lø ntilskud job Education Uddannelse Mangement Ledelsesansvar respo. Parents Forældres education uddannelse Employed Ansat i privat in private sektor sector Wage Lø nudvikling
Who gets the most favourable development in wage? Men have a better wage development than women; Men s wage increases 16% more during the first 10 years on the labour market The wage development is more favourable if you work in the capital. The wage increases 15% more for employed in Copenhagen during the first 10 years The wage increases 20% more among the higher educated people solely employed in the private sector in comparison with those whom sometimes during their first 10 years have been employed in the public sector Job shifts increase the wage. For each job shift you get 5% more compared to your start wage You can use the job shift to increase your wage: For those higher educated that consciously found a new job in order to maximise their salary or to become a manager their salary rose 10% and 22%, respectively, during the first 10 years on the labour market
Who gets the most favourable wage development? Science, social science and business economists have a better wage development than engineers however engineers start at a higher wage when they graduate No significant difference in wage development between humanities and bachelor engineers but humanities start at a lower wage level and are stilling lacking behind 8-10 years after The higher graduation age the poorer wage development. Each year after 24 years old, when you graduate, your wage development get 3% poorer First in job first to rise in wage. Those who were quickest in job after graduation had the most favourable wage development; higher educated who are more than 2 year about finding their first job, experience a 4% poorer wage development in comparison with those who get a job immediately after their graduation.
Same graduation year different wage development Peter lives in Copenhagen. He has been employed in the private sector his whole career in 4 different jobs. Last time he shifted job, he did it in order to increase his salary and get a promotion to be manager. Peter s salary is now 49.000 kr. per month (EUR 6464) Ulla lives in the province. She is employed in the public sector and have shifted job twice. Last time she shifted was et due stop of short term contract. Ulla s salary is 28.400 kr. per month (EUR 3746) If Ulla had lived in Copenhagen and had shifted job five times, she could have expected a salary of 39.400 kr. per month (EUR 5197)