Friedrich List Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences Institute of transportation and economics How can future ICT enhance disaster Lubos Buzna, Limor Issacharoff, Karsten Peters, Vittorio Rosato and Dirk Helbing October 6,2007 ICT FET Workshop http://www.trafficscience.org MOVING THE WORLD.
Introduction Organisation of disaster recovery actions Coordination of large-scale evacuations using ICT Large complex infrastructures and coping with massive service failures Methods 2
Future ICT Socially intelligent and human oriented (taking into account psychological and social aspects of human beings) Integrated Adaptive and Self-organized Decentralized Fault tolerant, reliable, robust against attacks 3
Natural disasters ( Earthquake, Epidemics, Famine, Fire, Flood, Landslide, Thunderstorm, Tornado, Tsunami, Volcanic eruption, ) Man made disasters ( Aviation, Civil disorder, Power outage, Radiation contamination, Terrorism, War, ) Disaster cycle: ICT support 4
1. Organisation of disaster recovery actions State information Decisions competencies responsibilities actions tasks measures events Disaster 5
1. Organisation of disaster recovery actions Weaknesses of hierarchical organisation structures: - loss of important information due to its compression - long time delays in information transfer t D - information never reaches its destination due to failures in communication? ICT Improved information flows can be reached by additional side-links and shortcuts [D. Helbing et al., Physica A, 363, 2006] mechanisms for more efficient and more reliable communication in organization structures 6
2. Coordination of large-scale evacuations using ICT Elbe river flooding in August 2002 (evacuation of two districts in Dresden) How to inform people? How to coordinate traffic flows? (choice of destinations, traffic jams) How to use the capacity of vehicles? (private and public) [ M. Boden, L. Buzna, H. Weger, Simulation of evacuation scenarios in urban areas developing the tools for modeling and optimization of evacuation traffic flows, TRANSCOM 2007] 7
2. Coordination of large-scale evacuations using ICT Evacuation of Swedish citizens from Lebanon by using SMS messaging (6 messages to about 5000 people) ICT CNN reported on July 21 2006: "Denmark and Sweden were front-runners in the race to rescue foreigners fleeing the violence in Lebanon while many other countries struggled to get their nationals out." Individual support of users (user behaviour, information, navigation, interaction, ) Integration of technologies (navigation, intelligent traffic systems, public communication media, ) 8
3. Organization of material flows Disaster logistics ICT Decentralized coordination of material flows Inventory management Route planning for vehicles Redistribution of materials Participation of volunteers 9
3. Large complex infrastructures and coping with massive service failures Electricity network Mobile phone network Distributed generation Keep system operable in the areas where it is not damaged by decentralized (emergency) management and control Understanding of the user behaviour in emergency situations ICT Reducing the data jams and network reconstruction (limiting services, mobile base station, ) 10
5. Methods Data collection and systematic analysis of ICT user behaviour in extreme situations Design of plausible user models Design of suitable decentralized administration models control of user interactions by suitable rules and incentives information flow management (communication protocols) adaptation of control strategies to a changing environment integration of systems Validation of resulting design by computer simulations specific simulation models parameter studies scenario specific studies scenario independent simulation tools Interdisciplinary research (communication technology, complex systems, biology, social sciences, civil engineering, ) 11
Friedrich List Faculty of Transportation and Traffic Sciences Institute of transportation and economics THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Email: buzna@vwi.tu-dresden.de Fakultät Verkehrswissenschaften Friedrich List Dresden http://www.trafficscience.org MOVING THE WORLD.