Final report Fellowship Award under The African Climate Change Fellowship Program LENOUO A. Introduction The Executive Committee of The African Climate Change Fellowship Program (ACCFP) has selected Dr Andre LENOUO to receive a 2009/2010 Teaching Fellowship under the Program s inaugural round of awards. START is implementing the ACCFP in partnership with the Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA) of the University of Dar es Salaam and the African Academy of Sciences (AAS). Under this contract between the International START Secretariat (the Contractor ), M Lenouo (the Fellow ), the University of Cheikh Anta Diop, Laboratoire de Physique de l Atmosphere et de l Ocean Simeon Fongang (LPAO-SF) (the Host Institution ), and University of Douala (the Home Institution ), the Contractor agrees to provide funds for the Teaching Fellowship (the Activity ) as described in Addendum I of the contract. The official term of the contract was from 1 st May 2009 to 30 th June 2009. He arrived Dakar on 1 st May 2009 and left on 7 th July 2009 (see mission order and flight ticket in Addendums III and IV). On Monday 4 th May 2009, the Fellow was welcomed at LPAO- SF/ESP/UCAD by Prof Amadou T. Gaye, Head of the LPAO-SP where he also met ACCFP- START post-doctoral fellow Dr Aliou Diouf. Still another fellow (Policy) Miss Arame Tall arrived at the beginning of June. All the ACCFP team under the Supervision of Prof Amadou T. Gaye and Prof Isabelle Niang were lodged at the same location for good interaction. The aim of this fellowship programme was to enhance capacity for climate data processing and climate variability scenarios. The purpose of the project was to strengthen the curriculum on climate change for Master and PhD students. Thus, the focus will henceforth be on techniques for data processing and applications of scenarios and climate change adaptation. B. Statement of work and collaboration 1. Work in the initial project of the fellowship program The purpose of this project was to strengthen the curriculum on climate change for Master and PhD students. Concerning techniques for data processing and applications of scenarios and climate change adaptation, during this fellowship period, we were involved in the follow activities: Final Report -ACCFP09 - LENOUO Page 1 of 6
Develop syllabuses responsive to issues of climate change in Africa; Interaction with other ACCFP fellows; And get the SARRAH software which is a very simple model used to estimate the impact of climate scenario on an annual crop. 1.1 Training of Master Students: statistics applied to data processing The syllabus for this course modified and work finished at around 90% (see the first draft in the attached file: Lenouo_Dakar2009_COURS). The new content is as follows: a. Descriptive statistics. Data processing b. Theoretical model of distribution. Random variable sampling c. Estimate d. Hypothesis testing and adjustment e. Analysis of variable, correlation and regression f. Time series data g. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) h. Exercises and solutions. The last chapter (exercises and corrections) is still outstanding. The course has been modified to suit all Master students even those who do not have any prior initiation to mathematics and statistics. Chapter 6 (f. Time series data) was done with an example in climatological application. More examples are dues with the exercises in the last chapter (outstanding). 1.2 Relationship with other ACCFP fellows. There were good interactions with other ACCFP fellows. They are: Arame TALL Home: Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Center / Senegal Project Title: Training Red Cross National Societies for climate change adaptation, early warning and early action and Aliou DIOUF Home: N/A Project Title: Climate change and food security in West Africa: Climate change impacts and strategies for adapting in agriculture (rain) and in livestock breeding in two regions in Senegal: Sob (Fatick) and Tatki (Ferlo) Two meeting were held with these fellows. The first meeting took place in May 2009 with Aliou Diouf, Amadou T. Gaye, Andre Lenouo and Isabelle Niang. During this working session, the problem of effectively work with Diouf was analyzed. With the arrival of Arame Final Report -ACCFP09 - LENOUO Page 2 of 6
Tall, second working session was done with the same persons and Prof Saidou Sall of LPAO-SF was also in attendance. The aim of this second meeting was the organization by the Policy fellow (Arame Tall) of the training session for the Red Cross of Senegal (see addendum I for Lenouo's contributions). 1.3 The SARRAH software SARRAH software is related to development since the 1970s of the agroclimatology within the CIRAD. The stages of its evolution are marked by research that has strongly influenced tropical agronomy, particularly in West Africa. All of these tools have been widely distributed, and served as the basis for more research and development in the tropics, both in Africa and Latin America. On the scale of the plot, the main uses are for the diagnosis or agronomic management of irrigation. At the regional level, the zoning of agricultural potential, studies to optimize planting dates and program performance prediction have been made in many countries (DHC, adaptation early warning system for nine countries CILSS, in partnership with AGRHYMET). During the stay of this fellow in Dakar, he met M Bertrand Muller, one of the developers of SARRAH and was given a copy. The last version will be used in the Master course in future years to analyze the impact of climate change on crop yields. 2 Collaborations and other activities During the fellowship period, the fellow participated in: The environmental day, organized on 5th June 2009 at the Chiekh Anta Diouf University by the Senegalese Ministry of the Environment. Amongst the participants was Prof Isabelle Niang. The presentation of a talk at a Multimedia room of ESP on May 20 th 2009, between 3 and 6 pm on the theme: Spatial variability of rainfall regions in West Africa during the 20th century, the abstract is in addendum II. Teaching of a course to the Masters students and other researchers at LPAO-SF. The subject of this course was installation and uses the NCL software, developed by UCAR (http://www.ncl.ucar.edu/). Some applications were treated. We also took part on the 13 th June 2009 to the evaluation of the French funded project REPIECSA which is underway at LPAO-SF. This project, coordinated by Prof Saidou M. Sall, deals with the capacity of climate models to reproduce the West African climate. Network grouping of climate researchers were setup to co-author papers for publication written by a teams from laboratories involved: Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics at the University of Douala, LAMEPA of the University of Yaoundé I, Fongang Simon Laboratory of Atmospheric and Ocean Physics of Cheikh Anta Diop University of Dakar and the Laboratory for Oceanography and Climate (LOCEAN) of Pierre Simon Laplace Institute, Paris. Subjects of these papers will be related to West Africa AMMA SOP3 experiments. Final Report -ACCFP09 - LENOUO Page 3 of 6
C. Conclusion and perspectives At the end of this fellowship, the objective of establishing of a syllabus tailored to the problems of climate change in Africa with the possibility of directly applying the results using scenarios of climate change and adaptation (parameterization models) was done at 95%. The new challenge is to raise funds to reinforce the contact between the two teams of researchers (Douala and Dakar) and see how to print the work document after its reviews in about one year. Final Report -ACCFP09 - LENOUO Page 4 of 6
Addendum I Propositions of Dr Lenouo for Arame Tall courses to Red Cross of Senegal Probabilities 101: why are forecasts probabilistic and not deterministic (game time) The ABCs of climate modeling and weather forecasting: How are predictions made? Climate change vs. Climate variability: a question of timescales The uses and limitations of forecasts at various timescales (seasonal, mid-range, short term) Day 2: Laying the foundations of a national multihazard EWS-- Consensual definition and adoption of Standard Operating Procedures for early action Définir formellement la notion de probabilité en prenant un exemple concret Donner son application sur un paramètre météorologique comme l indice K (par exemple, K=35 signifie qu on a plus de 80% de probabilité de développement d orages dans les masses d air). Définir la notion de modèle climatique en insistant sur les différentes échelles Citer quelques modèles (Exemples pour une même période dans le même domaine) Dire qui sont les prévisionnistes Définir CC et VC Donner quelques résultats de projections Les conséquences attendus en Afrique Lister les problèmes qu on rencontre lors de l utilisation des prévisions et les solutions y afférentes. Final Report -ACCFP09 - LENOUO Page 5 of 6
Addendum II EXPOSE Title: Spatial variability of rainfall regions in West Africa during the 20th century By Andre Lenouo Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Douala Cameroon Abstract Four regions spread in five areas are identified in West Africa for the base period 1901-1940. Trends have a magnitude of up to 1.5 K per century, with a decreasing of the precipitation since the year 1970. The application of a segment of 15 years with overlap going from 1901 to 1940 (P0), and 1961 to 1998 (P4) throughout the periods 1916-1955 (P1), 1931-1970 (P2) and 1946-1985 (P3), shows important spatiotemporal modifications of rainfall regions south of 15 N. Fr om P0 to P4, the surface of semiarid land doubles while wetland is reduced to half. Résumé: Quatre régions réparties sur 5 surfaces sont identifiées en Afrique de l Ouest durant la période de base 1901-1940. La tendance de température a une amplitude de 1,5K par siècle, avec une décroissance de la précipitation à partir des années 70. En utilisant un segment de 15 ans sur l intervalle de base P0 (1901-1940) à la période P4 (1961-1998), les modifications spatio-temporelles des zones climatiques sont étudiées. Ainsi, entre P0 et P4, la surface de la zone semi-aride a doublé alors que les zones humides sont réduites de moitié. Date : le mercredi 20 mai 2009 à 15H00 Lieu : ESP- Salle multimédia Langue : Français Final Report -ACCFP09 - LENOUO Page 6 of 6