World without universities? Possible futures of higher education and research INTERNATIONAL STAFF WEEK FOR MOBILITY OFFICERS JUNE 8-12, 2015 Dr. Juha Kaskinen Director FFRC 11.06.2015
Established in 1992 as an auxiliary unit of Turku School of Economics (1992 2009), Special Unit of University of Turku (2010 2013) Department at the Turku School of Economics, University of Turku August 2013 Offices in Turku, Helsinki and Tampere Personnel: 45-50 Ongoing research, development and education projects / year 30-40 Turnover: 3 M (2014) The FFRC organizes an international conference annually, bringing together significant actors from the field and others who are interested in the future www.futuresconference.fi
Megatrends and trends In future we will have more people, they live longer than before, they are more educated, more aware of global world and they mainly live in cities. Emphasis of the world economy sifts more and more to BRICS countries ja N 11 s (next eleven). Paradox: Scarcity of resources but more and more goods at the same time. Big data, digitalization, knowledge management challenges.
Megatrends and trends Changes of work and income distribution and their effects on well-being and societies Sources of materials and energy are under development, production processes become more biotechnical but we are still dependent on fossil systems and structures for a long time (decades) and this slows the development of bio-economies. Technologies are creating more possibilities and the time frame from scientific discovery to technological application shortens.
Modern economies fluctuate in a cycle of 40 60 years Rolling 10-year yields of the Standard & Poors 500 equity index and the Kondratieff s waves 1 st Kondratieff 1780 1830 Steam engine 2 nd Kondratieff 1830 1880 Railway, steel 3 rd Kondratieff 1880 1930 Electrification, chemicals 4 th Kondratieff 1930 1970 Automobiles, petrochem. 5 th Kondratieff 1970 2010 ICT 6 th Kondratieff 2010 20xx Environment technology? Nano-/biotech.? Health care? Panic of 1837 1837 1843 Long depression 1873 1879 Great depression 1929 1939 1 st and 2 nd oil crisis 1974 1980 Financial crisis 2007 2009 1819 1859 1899 1939 1979 2009 Trajectories for a new cycle: exhaust of old innovation, excess financial capital, severe recession, social change Data source: Datastream. Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis. Casti Ilmola Rouvinen Wilenius 2011: Extreme Events. Xevents.fi/Xevents.pdf
Business environment Needed skills Technologies Demographic changes Ethics Business Creativity and innovativeness Networks Services Design Experience seeking Smart surroundings Virtuality Changing business models customerialization networking specialization product-service concepts Security and safety Risk management Life-cycle management Multiculturalism Corporate responsibility ICT as central structure of production New materials Global change of work division Sustainable development 26.1.2007 Marita Aho 6
New learning environments Learning spaces spread out from traditional spaces to public spaces, built environment, private locations etc. Ubic and mobile technologies enable the spreading Global education and training markets Online learning and virtual vs. real social environment? Gamification Artificial memory speeding (e.g. by medicine, drugs) Gene-technology, -therapy Man-machine connections
Robert Crumb in 1960 s
Future Signals example Augmented Reality (AR) will be a much bigger market than Virtual Reality (VR). It will enter the workplace, will enhance our experience in cities and within tourist destinations, and will be widely used in education. How will it be used by you and your organization? Organizations and universities will leverage the technology to bring the best facilitators to teach employees everywhere. Virtual reality will offer experiences that simulate live-action viewing. The rapid advance of information and communication technology will likely continue apace. Collaboration between dispersed teams will be more possible as the virtual reality and possibly holograms becomes a common working practice. Virtual reality tools (as Oculus Rift) will enter the workplace. Robotic technology combined with Artificial Intelligence will assist humans in manufacturing, space, military and transportation sectors. Virtual reality/second life will be widely used in education. New disease categories due to the excessive use of virtual reality (VR) solutions in gaming and other industries will appear. (Shaping Tomorrow Newsletter May 26 2015).
Trends of science and research 1. The amount of research data and information exceed out comprehension Big Data phenomenon 2. Science is reconstructing all the time as a result of external and internal factors 3. New research rises from no man s land, from new combinations of borderline areas of disciplines 4. Relevance of knowledge and increased significance of external funding directs free science or does it? 5. Social accumulation of scientific benefit leads to Guru-profiles 6. University is more based on logic of education than research 7. Measurement autism = in universities people do only what is measured 8. In expensive research networking and internationalization is easier that in inexpensive research
Ympäristöosaajat 2025 -project Ympäristöosaajat2025 aims to study skills demanded by the environmental and energy sectors in year 2025 in Finland. SYKLI Environmental School of Finland: coordinator Finland Futures Research Centre: foresight methodology expertise Project expert group: Aalto University, GreenNet Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Ruralia Institute, Finnish Environmental Institute, VVY (Finnish Water Utilities, Association)
Skills and Expertise Needed Environmental skills and knowledge should be a part of every profession Energy and material efficiency, innovations from scarcity Management of ecosystem services Holistic understanding of different systems (ecological, technological, economic and social systems) and interaction between and within them Solutions from interfaces of different sectors Climate change mitigation and adaptation Integration of environmental and economical know-how
Super Professionals Interdisciplinary know-how, interdisciplinary language skills Broad expertise, master large entities and system thinking, Good holistic understanding of ecological, technological, economic and social systems and interaction between and within these systems Appliers Skills to apply environmental knowledge in practice In addition to environmental expertise they are familiar with other sectors they work with Primary expertise can be from another than environmental sector and environmental know-how is complementary
Innovators System level solutions: Have interdisciplinary know-how, with emphasis on social sciences (e.g. technology, social sciences, anthropology) Creative, unprejudiced and courageous actors Develop new, creative system level solutions e.g. in community and urban planning Technological solutions: Expertise in natural or technical sciences. Develop new, mainly technological and natural science based solutions, e.g. cleaner production processes. They work usually problem-based, creating solutions for existing problems
Conclusion Education and research is not dependent on a particular place. Universities should be able to anticipate the changes of work and working life, not just react on them Meaning of degrees diminish Online and virtual education and research platforms, digitalization Multidisciplinary research and training New novel combinations of disciplines International research groups and training programs Unlimited growth of data and knowledge
Conclusion We have to educate people for professions and jobs that do not exists yet. Should we concentrate more on skills and competencies than facts? YES! We should have skills to understand, adapt and even manage the change. Imagination, dreaming, innovation, social and cultural skills, openness, creating new combinations Futures work and foresight is needed!
Cities of future vision from 1925
Aspern Vienna s Urban Lakeside
Urban farming and energy production
www.ecofriend.com
2011-2012.ncurlbandesign.org
setiathome-berkeley.edu
Many thanks for your attention! Juha Kaskinen (Dr. Soc. Sc.) Director Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku School of Economics FI-20014 University of Turku Tel. +358 2 333 9528; +358 40 54 39 645 Email: juha.kaskinen@utu.fi http://www.utu.fi/en/units/ffrc