An Overview of Using Dynamic Discounted Cash Flow and Real Options to Value and Manage Petroleum Projects Michael Samis, Ph.D., P.Eng. AMEC Americas Limited David Laughton, Ph.D. David Laughton Consulting
Disclaimer This presentation was prepared for a valuation workshop presented to the Calgary Chapter of the Professional Risk Managers International Association by AMEC Americas Limited (AMEC) and David Laughton Consulting Limited. The quality of information, conclusions and estimates contained herein is consistent with the level of effort involved in the services provided by AMEC and David Laughton Consulting Limited based on: i) information available at the time of preparation, ii) data supplied by outside sources, and iii) the assumptions, conditions and qualifications set forth in this presentation. This presentation is intended only for educational purposes as an overview of market based valuation methods such as real options. The case studies presented in this workshop were constructed for illustrative purposes based on inputs and models that were chosen to support these purposes, rather than their detailed resemblance to actual economic environments or particular asset structures current or past. Any such resemblance is purely coincidental. These case studies are expressly not a professional opinion on the economic viability or value of any natural resource project discussed in this presentation. Any other use of, or reliance on, this presentation by a third party is at that party s sole risk. 2
Presentation agenda Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments 3
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Economic assessment Financial market and real asset disconnect An economically viable project generates after-tax operating profits sufficient to pay capital and financing costs and provide a return compensating for the project s unique uncertainty profile. Each project has its own uncertainty and risk characteristics that should be recognized in an economic analysis. There are many methods of assessing economic viability including net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, present value index, breakeven analysis etc. Net present value (NPV) is the most robust method of determining economic viability. NPV is the value added to an organization by investing in the project and represents the value of the project on an open market. 5
Evolution of valuation Financial market and real asset disconnect Valuation methods for financial assets have experienced monumental changes since the early 1970 s Introduction of derivative valuation methods, and new products and markets (e.g. credit derivatives) Valuation of real assets in the natural resource industries has not experienced the same degree of change Important advances have been made on the technical side but valuation has only experienced incremental changes 6
Evolution of valuation Financial markets and assets Modeling uncertainty and flexibility Dynamic quantitative Static quantitative Qualitative Valuing uncertainty (risk adjustment) At net cash-flow (DCF) 1970 Old style DCF analysis At source (real options) 1990 Traded derivatives of many types David Laughton (2004). Determining petroleum and mineral asset values. Where we have been, where we might go, CIM AGM, Edmonton. 7
Evolution of valuation Natural resource industries Modeling uncertainty and flexibility Dynamic quantitative Static quantitative Qualitative Valuing uncertainty (risk adjustment) At net cash-flow (DCF) Simple DCF decision trees DCF simulation DCF simple scenarios DCF 1-point forecasts Integrated DCF Monte Carlo and decision trees Monte Carlo with true distributions Simple scenarios Static cash flows with true prices At source (real options) David Laughton (2004). Determining petroleum and mineral asset values. Where we have been, where we might go, CIM AGM, Edmonton. 8
Why question status quo valuation? Six reasons The low equity returns in the natural resource industries in the 1990s may in part be linked to poor investment and asset management decisions Return on equity improves when we become more productive allocating and managing capital. Current valuation methods often rely on professional intuition (e.g. special project discount rates) or inconsistent reasoning to assess risk and calculate value We need a reasoned valuation approach to test intuitive conclusions and highlight inconsistencies. 9
Why question status quo valuation? Six reasons Conventional DCF valuation methods need to be supplemented with add-ons such as strategic value or value multiples or are simply not used in certain valuation problems because they just don t produce reasonable numbers Earn-in options, exploration, royalties, certain capital expansions, loss-making operations, staged investments, gold mines, world class assets, leases, market capitalizations. Renewed emphasis on professionally validated valuation models and project assessments Valuation codes (CIMVal) and financial market regulations (NI43-101) will ultimately require valuation models that explicitly recognize the influences of project uncertainty and structure on project value. 10
Why question status quo valuation? Six reasons Two significant biases using current methods: Against long-term production Against investing in future cost reduction Current methods do not support as well as possible high quality discussions about: Sources of value The creation and management of future flexibility 11
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Three value influences Uncertainty, structure, and estimation Project Uncertainty, Project Structure, and Value Estimation Management flexibility (expansion / closure) Cash flow structure (unit margin, non-linear CF, timing) Project structure Stakeholders (equity / debt / government) Characteristics (distribution / resolution) Project uncertainty Source or type (economic / physical / other) Elements of a valuation model Valuing uncertainty (aggregate: DCF / source: RO) Value estimation Modeling uncertainty/flexibility (scenarios / Monte Carlo / DT) 13
Project uncertainty Uncertainty resolution and updating Commodity prices exhibit reversion to a long-term equilibrium due to market forces - uncertainty growth slows with term. 120 120 100 100 WTI WTI price ($/bbl) 80 80 60 60 40 40 Long-term expected price = US$50/bbl Long-term expected price US$50/bbl 20 20 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 Project time (year) Project time (year) 14
Project uncertainty Uncertainty resolution and updating Non-reverting processes are used for investment assets like stocks and gold - uncertainty continues growing in the long-term. 1200 1100 1000 Mineral price ($/unit) 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Project time (year) 15
Project structure Unit costs and operating leverage Unit operating costs vary between petroleum projects which produces different magnitudes of net cash flow uncertainty Investors are risk averse and care about uncertainty. S WTI, Now =$60 Upside Outcome S WTI, U = $70 Expected outcome Pure WTI Play Units=2 CF U = 2*$70 = $140 E[CF]= 2*$60 $120 Low-cost Oil Field Units=4; UC=$30/bbl CF U = 4*($70 $30) = $160 E[CF] = 4*($60 $30) = $120 High-cost Oil Field Units=8; UC=$45/bbl CF U = 8*($70 $45) = $200 E[CF] = 8*($60 $45) = $120 Downside Outcome S WTI, D = $50 CF D = 2*$50 = $100 S Cu () = ±17% CF D = 4*($50 $30) = $80 CF() = ±33% CF D = 8*($50 $45) = $40 CF() = ±66% 16
Project structure Management flexibility Flexibility allows management to choose the operating policy that maximizes value as uncertainty is resolved. Project Value 0 The dashed lines indicate the prices at which an action is sub-optimal. Shut-in field Operate main field Develop satellite field Current mineral price 17
Project structure Management flexibility Flexibility allows management to limit downside losses and magnify upside cash flows over the project s lifetime. Net cash flow distribution for project with no flexibility Net cash flow distribution for project with upside and downside policy alternatives. Small cumulative net cash flow Expected net CF with no flexibility Expected net CF with flexibility Large cumulative net cash flow 18
Project structure Decision phase diagrams Monte Carlo simulation can be combined with decision trees to analyze the value and risk-mitigation effects of flexibility. Decision points determined by comparing value resulting from different production alternatives Scatter plots show different optimal choices (e.g. abandon vs. operate) for a copper mine with some local costs given different copper price / exchange rate pairs at a particular time. Use pattern of decision "phases" to determine value and risk effects of flexibility. Foreign exchange rate (Host/US$) Foreign exchange rate (Host/US$) 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 1.10 1.05 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 Green dot:continue mining Red dot: Early closure Blue dot: High capacity mining Green dot:low capacity mining Red dot: Early closure 19
Value estimation DCF and RO are methods of calculating NPV DCF: traditional discounted cash flow analysis. RO: Real options, named in the 1980s when financial option pricing techniques were applied to the valuation of real assets (factories, mines, forests, oil fields). The main emphasis of real options was modeling uncertainty and valuing management flexibility, though here we are interested in its implications for valuation with or without flexibility. Both DCF and RO calculate Net Present Value. Valuation analysts often speak of RO project value as being something different to NPV it is not. 20
Value estimation Differentiating between DCF and RO DCF (risk adjust net cash flow) Uncertainty Project structure Real options (risk adjust at source) Risk adjustment Risk-adjusted discount rate Project net cash-flow Project value Time adjustment 21
Value estimation DCF uses an aggregate risk/time adjustment Conventional static DCF applies an aggregate average risk and time adjustment to net cash flows and ignores flexibility. S= oil price (only source of uncertainty in this example) Aggregate risk and time adjustment applied to the net cash flow stream (i.e. discounting with RADR or WACC discount rate). ES Oil Amount = Revenue OpCost Operating profit CAPEX Net cash flow Time and risk adj. Present Value net cash flow Base alternative 22
Value estimation RO separates risk and time adjustments Real options applies a risk adjustment to the source of uncertainty and a time adjustment to net cash flow. Risk adjustment applied to expected oil price (i.e. pure oil risk discounting). Time adjustment applied here (i.e. discounting at the risk-free rate). ES Risk adj. = E RA S Oil Amount Risk adjusted revenue OpCost Risk adj. operating profit CAPEX Risk adjusted net cash flow Time adj. Present Value net cash flow Base alternative 23
Value estimation Choosing between single-rate DCF and RO The choice between single-rate DCF and RO valuation methods is a matter of selecting the method that is best able to recognize the unique risk characteristics of a particular project. They both recognize uncertainty variation but differ on how to calculate the compensation an investor requires for exposure to project uncertainty (i.e. a risk-adjustment). RO recognizes the dynamic risk variation within the project environment while single-rate DCF does not. RO applies an adjustment at source based on pure risk characteristics and filters this through to the net cash flow stream. DCF uses an aggregate risk adjustment representing the interaction of all uncertainties and flexibilities. This is difficult to do. 24
Consider the following You are in an E&P organisation that has been operating primarily in the Canadian western sedimentary basin, and are part of a team looking at prospects off the west coast of Africa. As part of the analysis, your colleagues suggest that, without further study, you should approximate the well productivity in any of these prospects to be the average (weighted by production) of all the wells in which your corporation has an interest. Would you agree with this course of action? 25
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
A simple 1-period production asset Asset cash-flow model 1 year from now net cash-flow = output * output price - cost High cost Low cost Asset information Output 100 Cost 160 120 27 27
A simple 1-period production asset Corporate information Output price forecast 2.00 Discount rate 0.20 Discount factor 0.833 = 1/(1+0.20) 28 28
DCF analysis High cost Low cost Forecast cash-flows Revenue 200 =100*2.00 Cost 160 120 Net 40 =200-160 80 =200-120 DCF value 33.3=40*0.833 66.7 =80*0.833 29 29
Now add capital Asset cash-flow model now net cash-flow = - capital cost High cost Low cost Asset information Capital cost 15 50 DCF value 18.3 = 33.3-15 16.7 = 66.7-50 30 30
Valuing components of a linear cash-flow If cash-flow is linear in underlying uncertain variables, e.g. Cash-flow = A * output price + B Value of the claim to the cash-flow can be determined by using value additivity Value = A * value of claim to output price + B * value of claim to a unit of risk-free cash-flow 31 31
Forward pricing Value = A * value of claim to output price + B * value of claim to a unit of risk-free cash-flow = A * output forward price * time discount factor + B * time discount factor = (A * output forward price + B) * time discount factor Recall Cash-flow = A * output price + B 32 32
MBV valuation of the production asset Market information Forward output price 1.80 Cash bond price (time discount factor) 0.95 Output bond value 1.71 =1.80 * 0.95 How can we value a claim to the cash-flow output * output price - cost? 33 33
MBV valuation High cost Low cost Market information Output bond value 1.71 =1.80 * 0.95 Valuation Revenue 171 =100 * 1.71 Cost 152 =160*0.95 114 =120*0.95 Net 19 =171-152 57 =171-114 34 34
MBV discounting High cost Low cost Forecast cash-flows Revenue 200 Cost 160 120 Net 40 =200-160 80 =200-120 MBV value : Discount factor (value / forecast cash-flow) Revenue 171 : 0.855 Cost 152 : 0.95 114 : 0.95 Net 19 : 0.475 57 : 0.7125 35 35
MBV discounting (cont'd) High cost Low cost Risk discount factor (discount factor / time discount factor) Revenue 0.90 Cost 1.00 1.00 Net 0.50 0.75 Risk discount (1- risk discount factor) revenue 0.10 Cost 0.00 0.00 Net 0.50 0.25 36 36
Uncertainty and risk discounting High cost Low cost Corporate information Output price realisations 2.00 ± 0.50 Price uncertainty 0.25 =0.50/2.00 What is the uncertainty in the net cash-flow? How does the risk discount relate to the uncertainty? 37 37
Uncertainty and risk discounting High cost Low cost Corporate information Output price realisations 2.00 ± 0.50 Price uncertainty 0.25 =0.50/2.00 Uncertainty (absolute : proportional) Revenue 200 ± 50 : 0.25 Net cash-flow 40 ± 50 : 1.25 80 ± 50 : 0.625 38 38
Uncertainty and risk discounting High cost Low cost Risk discount and proportional uncertainty Revenue 0.10 = 0.4*0.25 Net cash-flow 0.50=0.4*1.25 0.25=0.4*0.625 Price of output price risk = 0.4 39 39
Forward price and price of risk Forward price = Expectation * risk discount factor = Expectation * (1 - risk discount) = Expectation * (1 - price of risk * amount of uncertainty) 40 40
Prices of risk For the same level of uncertainty, the greater the price of risk, the greater the risk discount Price of risk measures how averse the marginal investor is to bearing this particular type of uncertainty Price of risk = 0 means no risk discounting Typical of local, nonsystematic, diversifiable uncertainty Price of risk negative means risk mark-up Marginal investor want to bear this uncertainty Usually hedges other uncertainties 41 41
CAPM and prices of risk CAPM is actually a model of prices of risk Price of risk = economy price of risk * correlation with economy Annual economy price of risk is roughly 0.5 Annual prices of risk typically between -0.5 and 0.5 Empirical determination of price of risk equivalent to determination of an equity beta risk premium in a WACC calculation 42 42
Back to the example, add capital Asset cash-flow model now net cash-flow = - capital cost High cost Low cost Asset information Capital cost 15 50 DCF value 18.3 = 33.3-15 16.7 = 66.7-50 MBV value 4.0 =19-15 7.0 = 57-50 43 43
Insights Different assets, different uncertainties, different risk discounting Greater discountable uncertainty => greater risk discount Effect of uncertainty on value governed by "prices of risk" Risk discount = price of risk * amount of uncertainty We can think systematically about prices of risk Equivalent to WACC determination Risk discounting still determined centrally MBV, if anything, increases consistency and central control 44 44
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Forward contracts Gold forward curves Gold Futures Contracts as of 1st Trading Day of Each Month, 2004 550.0 525.0 500.0 475.0 450.0 425.0 400.0 375.0 350.0 46 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Delivery Date
Forward contracts Copper forward curves showing reversion 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 0301 0303 0305 0307 0309 0311 0401 0403 0405 0407 0409 0411 0501 0503 0505 0507 0509 0511 0601 Forward Contract Expiry Date 47
Forward contracts Natural gas forward curves $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 48 09/26/1997 10/26/1997 11/26/1997 12/26/1997 01/26/1998 02/26/1998 03/26/1998 04/26/1998 05/26/1998 06/26/1998 07/26/1998 08/26/1998 09/26/1998 10/26/1998 11/26/1998 12/26/1998 01/26/1999 02/26/1999 03/26/1999 04/26/1999 05/26/1999 06/26/1999 07/26/1999 08/26/1999 09/26/1999 10/26/1999 Gas Price, $/MCF Forward Contract Expiry Date
Oil prices 1970-2005 (real US$/bbl) 2006 US$/b 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10-1970 1980 1990 2000 49 49
Oil prices Four periods of rising oil prices 1973-74 Most sustained 1979-81 Reversed 1991 Short-lived 1998-now??? Supply-side vs demand-side shocks Permanent vs temporary changes Long-term vs short-term uncertainty Financial market information Implications for price models 50 50
Oil prices Financial market Information Before the late 1980s Equity prices Predicted much lower prices than the US$100/bbl by 1990 touted by analysts in 1980 Since then Forward and futures markets 51 51
Oil prices Oil forward prices 1989-1991 4 0 O il F u tu re s P ric e s v s T im e 3 5 3 0 Oil Price, $/Bbl 2 5 2 0 1 5 1 0 5 0 1 9 8 8.0 0 1 9 8 9.0 0 1 9 9 0.0 0 1 9 9 1.0 0 1 9 9 2.0 0 1 9 9 3.0 0 1 9 9 4.0 0 1 9 9 5.0 0 1 9 9 6.0 0 T im e 1 9 8 9 0 1 1 7 1 9 8 9 0 2 0 3 1 9 8 9 0 2 1 7 1 9 8 9 0 3 0 3 1 9 8 9 0 4 0 3 1 9 8 9 0 4 1 7 1 9 8 9 0 5 0 3 1 9 8 9 0 5 1 7 1 9 8 9 0 7 1 7 1 9 8 9 0 8 0 3 1 9 8 9 0 8 1 7 1 9 8 9 1 0 0 3 1 9 8 9 1 0 1 7 1 9 8 9 1 1 0 3 1 9 8 9 1 1 1 7 1 9 9 0 0 1 0 3 1 9 9 0 0 1 1 7 1 9 9 0 0 4 0 3 1 9 9 0 0 4 1 7 1 9 9 0 0 5 0 3 1 9 9 0 0 5 1 7 1 9 9 0 0 7 0 3 1 9 9 0 0 7 1 7 1 9 9 0 0 8 0 3 1 9 9 0 0 8 1 7 1 9 9 0 0 9 1 7 1 9 9 0 1 0 0 3 1 9 9 0 1 0 1 7 1 9 9 0 1 2 0 3 1 9 9 0 1 2 1 7 1 9 9 1 0 1 0 3 1 9 9 1 0 1 1 7 1 9 9 1 0 4 0 3 1 9 9 1 0 4 1 7 1 9 9 1 0 5 0 3 1 9 9 1 0 5 1 7 1 9 9 1 0 6 0 3 1 9 9 1 0 6 1 7 1 9 9 1 0 7 0 3 1 9 9 1 0 7 1 7 1 9 9 1 0 9 0 3 1 9 9 1 0 9 1 7 1 9 9 1 1 0 0 3 1 9 9 1 1 0 1 7 1 9 9 1 1 2 0 3 1 9 9 1 1 2 1 7 52 52
Oil prices Oil forward prices 2002-2005 O il F u tu re s P ric e s vs T im e 6 0 5 0 Oil Price, $/Bbl 4 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 20020103 20020117 20020403 20020417 20020503 20020517 20020603 20020617 20020703 20020717 20020903 20021003 20021017 20021203 20021217 20030103 20030117 20030203 20030303 20030317 20030403 20030417 20030603 20030617 20030703 20030717 20030903 20030917 20031003 20031017 20031103 20031117 20031203 20031217 20040203 20040217 20040303 20040317 20040503 20040517 20040603 20040617 20040803 20040817 20040903 20040917 20041103 20041117 20041203 20041217 20050103 53 53
Oil prices Models Price = long term factor * short term factor Long term factor was fairly stable 1983-2002 Band of US$14-US$26 per bbl Now long-term factor increased and more uncertain -> Long-term flexibility more valuable 54 54
Oil prices NYMEX oil forward prices on 27 May 2007 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Time horizon (years) Expected price Median price Forward price 90% upper boundary 90% lower boundary Nymex price deflated 55 55
Input prices Deepwater rig day rate index vs WTI oil Deepwater Rig Day Rate Index vs WTI Oil $/Bbl 500 $70.00 DW Day Rate Index 1994 = 100 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 DW Rig Rate Index Oil $/Bbl Rig index from ODS-PETRODATA $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 WTI $/Bbl Avg for Month 50 $10.00 0 $0.00 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 56 56
Input prices Cost index modelling Rent effects Cost index = 1 + a (Price - Current Price) / Current Price Quasi-rent effects Cost index = 1 + b (price change-expected price change) 57 57
Input prices A rough cut at the Alberta SAGD cost index 58 58
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Case study #1: Alberta oil sands with no flexibility Steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) project Steam forced underground Bitumen pumped to surface Overburden 150m 1. Steam exits injector well and forms a steam chamber in the upper formation. Upper steam injector well 2. Bitumen and condensed water flow by gravity to lower producer well for pumping to surface Lower producer well 60
Case study #1: Project background Project background: 2 billion barrels of recoverable reserves at a maximum production rate of 190 thousand b/d (70.6 million b/y). Production increased in phases for a mine life of 35 years. 50% of operating costs are from natural gas. Two design options: No on-site upgrader (third party refinery). Development and sustaining CAPEX: CAD$7.6b; US$24/bbl refining penalty; Net CF: CAD$410m/yr. Build on-site upgrader / refinery CAPEX. Development and sustaining CAPEX: CAD$15.6b; No refining penalty; Net CF: CAD$775m/yr. A non-linear royalty and CIT tax regime. 61
Case study #1: Sources of uncertainty WTI / synthetic crude oil price Moderate levels of uncertainty (25%) with strong reversion to a long-term equilibrium price of US$50.00/bbl. Natural gas price High levels of uncertainty (50%) with strong reversion to a longterm equilibrium price of CAD$6.00 mmbtu. Light-heavy differential (heavy oil refining penalty) High levels of uncertainty (50%) with strong reversion to a longterm equilibrium price of US$24.00/bbl. Low level of systematic uncertainty. Correlations between uncertainties: WTI - NatGas: 0.7; WTI - LHDiff: 0.7; NatGas - LHDiff: 0.5 62
Case study #1: WTI / synthetic crude oil price 90 80 70 WTI / Synthetic crude oil price WTI price (US$/bbl) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 Project time (years) Expected WTI price Risk-adjusted WTI price Upper confidence bdy Lower confidence bdy 63
Case study #1: Natural gas price 12 Natural gas price (CAD$/mmcf) 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 Project time (years) Expected NatGas price Forward NatGas price Upper confidence bdy Lower confidence bdy 64
Case study #1: Light-heavy differential (refining penalty) 45 Light-heavy differential (US$/bbl) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 Project time (years) Expected light-heavy differential Risk-adjusted light-heavy differential Upper confidence bdy Lower confidence bdy 65
Case study #1: Monte Carlo DCF and RO valuation results Cumulative net cash flow SAGD: CAD$ 7201m SAGD+Upgrader: CAD$ 12309m Time-adj. cumulative net cash flow SAGD: CAD$ 3450m SAGD+Upgrader: CAD$ 5092m Discounted cash flow DCF net present value SAGD: CAD$ 277m SAGD+Upgrader: CAD$ -697m DCF risk-adj. value reduction SAGD: CAD$3173m SAGD+Upgrader: CAD$5789m Discounted cash flow and real options make conflicting design recommendations. Real options RO net present value SAGD: CAD$ 1104m SAGD+Upgrader: CAD$ 3515m RO risk-adj. value reduction SAGD: CAD$ 2346m SAGD+Upgrader: CAD$ 1577m 66
Case study #1: Project total unit operating costs 80 Effective unit operating costs (CAD$/bbl) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Development horizon 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Project time SAGD SAGD + Upgrader Expected WTI (CDN$) 67
Case Study #1 CF deviations, NCFDFs, and NCFRDFs Cash flow deviations indicate average cash flow variability. CF Deviation t, i Net cash flow risk discount factors (NCFRDFs) indicate the size of the risk adjustment applied to a cash flow. NCFDF = NCFRDF t t = Standard deviation (Stakeholder CF t ) Expected CF t Present value of cash flow Expected cash flow flow t = Present value of cash Expected cash flow Time discount factor t NCFDFs and NCFRDFs profile should change with variations in cash flow uncertainty since both adjustments applied to the project cash flows reflect investor sensitivity to uncertainty. t t t 68
Case study #1: Equity coefficient of variation 120% 100% Development horizon Coefficient of variation (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Project time SAGD SAGD + Upgrader 69
Case study #1: Expected CF and CF boundaries 3000 2500 Development horizon Net cash flow (CAD$ million) 2000 1500 1000 500 0-500 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Project time (year) SAGD E[CF] SAGD 90% CB SAGD 10% CB SAGD+Upgrader E[CF] SAGD+Upgrader 90% CB SAGD+Upgrader 10% CB 70
Case study #1: Net CF time and risk discount factors 1.2 Net cash flow discount factor 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Developmen t horizon 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Project time DCF (SAGD & SAGD+Upgrader) RO SAGD RO SAGD + Upgrader 71
Case study #1: Net CF risk discount factors 1.2 Net cash flow risk discount factor 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Developmen t horizon Note that the horizontal structure of the RO NCF-RDF is consistent with reversion in oil and natural gas prices. 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Project time DCF (SAGD & SAGD+Upgrader) RO SAGD RO SAGD + Upgrader 72
Case study #1 SAGD project conclusions Interaction of project design and uncertainty has important value effects especially in the long-term. Conventional DCF assumes project uncertainty grows at a fixed rate; RO recognizes project uncertainty is non-linear. Project cash flow risk is dependent upon design (sometimes in surprising ways). RO respects this while a constant DCF discount rate does not. Real option analysis helps focus valuation analysts on explicit recognition of project characteristics. Avoids hiding features in DCF discount rates and circular debates about discount rates (10% or 12%). Facilitates a detailed discussion about the interaction between the economic environment and the project. 73
Case study #1 SAGD project conclusions A key parameter in this analysis may be the correlation of the LHDiff with the economy, which determines the amount of risk discounting in its forward prices Assumed low here: based on presumption that it is determined by Venezuelan politics What if Venezuelan political risk is correlated with the economy or if differential is strongly influenced by supply-demand balance of different types of refining capacity which is in turn driven by the economy? MBV highlights the importance of asking these sorts of questions and doing sensitivity analysis around them 74
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Case Study #2 Coalbed methane project An undeveloped coalbed methane project containing 104 million mmcf of methane. Strong initial production rates declining over the next 30 yrs. Development CPX of CAD$190m. Stable long-term unit costs and profit margins. Average real unit production cost is CAD$3.64/mmcf (includes tax and royalties). Average profit margin is 43% Methane production (million mcf) 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Real CAD$/ mcf 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Methane production 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Expected unit revenue Expected unit operating profit Expected unit operating cost Expected profit margin 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Profit margin (%) 76
Case study #2 Natural gas price model Reverting natural gas price model with a real long-term expected price of CAD$6.43/mmcf. High levels of volatility with riskadjustment because of correlation to financial market activity. 12 Natural gas price (CAD$/mmcf) 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Expected NatGas price Upper confidence bdy Project time (years) Risk-adjusted NatGas price Lower confidence bdy 77
Case study #2 Project tax regime A royalty payment dependent on whether pre-production capital has been repaid. Royalty base may be adjusted for field operating costs. 1% royalty rate during capital repayment period. 25% royalty rate after capital repayment period. Corporate income tax rate of 35% on taxable income. Tax losses may be carried forward 7 years. Declining balance depreciation with accelerated schedules for preproduction capital (Class 41a). 78
Case study #2 Expected after-tax equity cash flows Expected equity net cash flow (not adjusted for time and risk) over the life of the project is $477 million. Probability of a negative lifetime net cash flow balance is small using the current price model. Lower 10% confidence boundary is $398 million. 100 Real cash flow (CAD$ million) 80 60 40 20 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Expected equity after-tax cash flow 10% confidence bdy 90% confidence bdy 79
Case study #2 Expected royalty cash flows Expected royalty cash flows (not adjusted for time and risk) over the life of the project are $136 million. There is no possibility of a negative lifetime cash flow balance and the lower 10% confidence boundary is $97 million. Narrow histogram when there is no management flexibility. 20 Real cash flow (CAD$ million) 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Expected royalty cash flow 10% confidence bdy 90% confidence bdy 80
Case study #2 Expected corporate income tax cash flows Expected corporate income tax cash flows (not adjusted for time and risk) over the life of the project are $142 million. There is no possibility of a negative lifetime cash flow balance; the lower 10% CB is $99 million and the upper 90% CB is $189 million. 20 Real cash flow ($ million) 15 10 5 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Expected CIT cash flow 10% confidence bdy 90% confidence bdy 81
Case study #2 Cash flow uncertainty comparison 300% 250% Coefficient of variation 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Equity Royalty Corporate income tax 82
Case study #2 DCF/RO NOFLEX results Stakeholder DCF NPV (CAD$ million) RO Equity 73.2 154.0 Royalty 44.5 75.6 Corporate income tax 45.1 76.9 DCF NPV is calculated with a 12% risk adjusted discount rate. RO NPV is calculated with a 5% risk-free rate and a riskadjusted price curve. Equity IRR is 24.3%. Implied RO cost of capital is 6.6% which is the DCF discount rate that equates DCF NPV to RO NPV. Excess RO return is 17.7%. 83
Case Study #2 Equity CF deviation, NCFDF and NCFRDF Cash flow uncertainty stabilizes in the long term due to price reversion and constant real unit operating costs. RO risk adjustments track cash flow variability. DCF NPV lower than RO because NCFDFs are on average smaller (i.e. a larger risk adjustment than RO). 100% 1.0 100% 1.0 Cash flow CoV (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Net cash flow discount factor Cash flow CoV (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Net cash flow RISK discount factor 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Equity CF CoV DCF NCFDF RO NCFDF 0.0 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Equity CF CoV DCF NCFRDF RO NCFRDF 0.0 84
Case Study #2 Royalty CF deviation, NCFDF and NCFRDF Royalty CF uncertainty is initially very high because of uncertainty in capital repayment period and stabilizes once this period is finished. Real option risk adjustments are initially high compared to later years because of high initial royalty uncertainty. 100% 1.0 100% 1.0 Cash flow CoV (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Net cash flow discount factor Cash flow CoV (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Net cash flow RISK discount factor 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Royalty CF CoV DCF NCFDF RO NCFDF 0.0 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Royalty CF CoV DCF NCFRDF RO NCFRDF 0.0 85
Case Study #2 CIT CF deviation, NCFDF and NCFRDF High volatility of CIT in early years due to uncertainty in the time necessary to depreciate development capital. RO risk adjustments recognize changes in CIT uncertainty. 100% 1.0 100% 1.0 Cash flow CoV (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Net cash flow discount factor Cash flow CoV (%) 80% 60% 40% 20% 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Net cash flow RISK discount factor 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Corporate income tax CF CoV DCF NCFDF RO NCFDF 0.0 0% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Project time (year) Corporate income tax CF CoV DCF NCFRDF RO NCFRDF 0.0 86
Case Study #2 Final comments Highlighted that the level of cash flow uncertainty can vary greatly between project stakeholders and during the project. RO was able to explicitly recognize this variation in its risk adjustment whereas constant discount rate DCF does not. This analysis can be extended to analyze the impact of financing terms or tax policy on project development. Flexible models can estimate the increased probability that some areas of a petroleum project are not developed because of onerous terms. 87
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Case study #3: Dual-fuel boiler SAGD with fuel switching Similar SAGD project to that in Case Study #1: 2 billion barrels of recoverable reserves at a maximum production rate of 190 thousand bbl/d (70.6 million bbl/y). Production increased in phases for a field life of 38 years. Transport cost: $3.00/bbl Two design options: gas-fired boiler dual-fuel boiler gas-fired bitumen-fired CAPEX ($b) 8.2 9.2 Nat. gas(mcf/bbl) 1.1 1.1 0.033 Bitumen (bbl/bbl) - - 0.179 Other OPEX ($/bbl) 5.50 6.00 8.00 Annual decision with no switch cost 89
Case study #3: Production profile 90
Case study #3: CAPEX profile! " # $ " 91
Case study #3: Sources of uncertainty WTI / synthetic crude oil price Moderate levels of uncertainty (25%) with strong reversion to a long-term equilibrium price of $55.54/bbl; current $75.00/bbl Natural gas price High levels of uncertainty (50%) with strong reversion to a longterm equilibrium price of $7.00/mcf; current $7.50/mcf WTI-bitumen differential High levels of uncertainty (50%) with strong reversion to a longterm equilibrium price of $26.66/bbl; ; current $39.00/bbl Correlations between uncertainties: WTI - NatGas: 0.7; WTI - LHDiff: 0.7; NatGas - LHDiff: 0.5 92
Case study #3: WTI model %&'! (#)! ' ' ' 93
Case study #3: WTI-bitumen differential model %&'! (#)! ' ' ' 94
Case study #3: Natural gas price model %&'! (#)! ' ' ' 95
Case study #3: Taxes Royalty CIT Pre-payout : 1% of plant gate revenue Post-payout: max (pre_payout royalty, 25% of cash-flow) Losses carried forward at long Canada bond rate 28.5% rate 30% declining balance on lagged sustaining capital 25% declining balance on half-year lagged development capital 41a: 100% declining balance up to accounting income limit Large other income so losses claimed immediately 96
Case study #3: Effects of uncertainty Uncertainty relevant only because of "non-linear cash-flows" Taxes Flexibility Analysis without uncertainty Analysis with varying level of correlation between bitumen and natural gas prices Stong, weak, none Lower correlation, more uncertainty in net Value without flexibility down with uncertainty in net Value of flexibility up with uncertainty in the effects of the choice 97
Case study #3: Computation: DCF value of asset = max over policies p (sum over realisations r (probability r * sum over times t (asset net cashflow t (p,r) * corporate risk discount factor t * time discount factor t ))) 98
Case study #3: Computation: RO Value of asset = max over policies p (sum over realisations r (probability r * sum over times t (asset net cashflow t (p,r) * realisation risk adjustment r,t * time discount factor t ))) Same except uniform risk-discounting becomes realisation-dependent risk adjustment 99
Case study #3: Policy search Depends on state variables: Prices Tax balances Current operating state (if costs to switching) Generally done within valuation Here an approximation pre-specifies policy that maximises current operating cash-flow Pretax capital costs independent of operating mode Not quite optimal because of operating effects on royalty payout and 41a claim Underestimates value of flexibility 100
Case study #3: Policy 0 0 1 *+#, -./#)# 101
Case study #3: Values no uncert. strong corr. weak corr. no corr. DCF gas 884 543 536 529 dual gas 409 13 6-2 dual bit 630 211 211 211 dual choice 630 383 426 462 RO gas 3473 2991 2969 2944 dual gas 2693 2135 2112 2086 dual bit 3249 2710 2710 2709 dual choice 3249 3217 3328 3422 102
Case study #3: No 41a no unc strong corr weak corr no corr DCF gas 812 471 464 456 dual gas 359-50 -59-69 dual bit 571 148 148 148 dual choice 571 314 355 390 RO gas 3431 2943 2920 2896 dual gas 2661 2092 2067 2040 dual bit 3214 2667 2667 2667 dual choice 3214 3171 3280 3373 103
Valuation in the petroleum industry Valuation influences: Uncertainty, structure and value estimation A simple demonstration of DCF and RO value mechanics Modelling output and input prices Case study #1: Long-term cash flows at a SAGD project Case study #2: Equity and government cash flows at a coal bed methane project Case study #3: Valuing a dual-fuel boiler at a SAGD project Final comments
Final comments Asset valuation methods in the natural resource industries have not incorporated advances in the financial markets There is some agreement on improving the analysis of effects of dynamic uncertainty with Monte Carlo simulation and decisiontrees There is not yet an agreement in the industry on whether aggregate risk adjustments (DCF) or source risk adjustments (RO) are better Demonstrated that RO recognizes variations in net cash flow uncertainty across assets while the conventional DCF approach does not This has important implications for qualified person reports, and the internal analysis of assets with with atypical uncertainties. 105
Final comments The ability to manage risk with operating strategies (flexibility) adds value This is true for both DCF and MBV Tools are being developed to anlyses complex situations with many incertainties and decisions throughout the asset life cycle Work needed on Refining output price models Modelling of input price and technical/geological uncertainty Decision models Methods of presenting multi-dimensional results Creation of commercial-grade software 106