TheHae Initiatives Strategic Mapping Success in The Food System: Discover. Anayze. Strategize. Impement. Measure. FOODSERVICE 2020: GLOBAL, CONSOLIDATED AND STRUCTURED As we start this new decade, it is time to begin preparing for the next ten years. The time is now since the requirements for success in 2020 wi invove significant changes to the organizationa competencies, strategies and structures that generay exist today. The Hae reviews its body of food system knowedge and ooks to future trends to identify success modes for industry participants in 2020. This strategic commentary on Foodservice 2020 is intended to stimuate industry eaders thought processes so they can anticipate, respond, and be positioned to sustain the business heath of their enterprise. We ook forward to encouraging the continued diaogue as eadership ooks to the future and adapts to the shifting requirements. www.haegroup.com
Executive Summary The key eements of the Foodservice 2020 operating environment and resuting strategic requirements for success have their roots in 2010, but the future direction and speed of change wi be acceerated. The contributing factors are goba shifts in the food system and consumers having reached equiibrium between at-home and away-fromhome eating occasions in the U.S. The success mode eements of 2020: 1. Food System Wi Be Gobay Connected, Less Nationay-Oriented must be gobay connected to be competitive 2. Expansion of Agricutura Production Focused in South America and Africa stay vigiant to opportunities to source in new areas 3. Agricuture Becomes Even More Industriaized efficient producers with sustainabe practices reduce cost of raw materias 4. Food Prices Wi Be More Voatie Than They Have Been Historicay price protection and mitigating strategies to win market share 5. Managing Food Movement from Farmer to Consumer: Risky and More Compex, but Highy Strategic capabiity to source gobay and move efficienty and safey are strategic imperatives 6. Foodservice Reaizes Sow Growth and Share Battes Ensue share battes won by providing cear demonstrabe vaue proposition versus competitors 7. 80% of A Foodservice Operators Purchases Are Contracted contract negotiations, execution, and monitoring require finey tuned competencies 8. Death of Saes Gives Rise to Account and Segment Management Teams account and segment deveopment efforts require anaytica, structured, directed and measured strategies 9. Suppy Chain as the Basis of Competition the name of the game: not what s promised, but what s fufied 10. Shared Information/Insight Is the Currency of Success abiity to share information, insight and knowedge cements reationships and drives performance 11. Innovation Creates the Upside, but ROI Must Be Carefuy Managed targeted, demonstrabe benefits and financiay innovative process to achieve return on investment TheHae www.haegroup.com 2
The Foodservice 2020 operating environment wi demand cearer and strategic targeting of resources against customers who vaue your offering. Success wi resut from: Trends in Goba Agricuture 2020 Any discussion about the future of the food industry must have the future of goba agricuture as its starting point. The changes in goba agricuture wi create a major rippe effect reverberating through the entire food system. A participants in the food system, from input suppiers to restaurants and retai stores, wi need to understand these changes and deveop pans and strategies to adapt accordingy. In the ast decade, we have seen that sma shifts in goba demand and suppies have a arge impact on the U.S. food system. These shifts are a harbinger of what is to come. The Hae sees five major agricutura issues paying out over the next decade. 1. A More Gobay Inter-connected Food Industry The food industry began as a oca business. In 1900, 95% or more of the food eaten in the U.S. was produced within 50 mies of consumers homes, the major exceptions being spices, coffee, tea, sugar, and some fruits. By the year 2000, ony a sma percentage of our food was being produced within 50 mies of our homes. Today, a very high percentage is produced in the far-fung corners of our country and a sizabe portion in countries around the word. The primary drivers of gobaization in the food industry during the 20th century in industriaized nations ike the United States incude: Lower production costs esewhere in the word A desire for variety in our foods A requirement for year-round suppy of seasona crops, such as fruits and vegetabes Reguation and specia interest group advocacy TheHae www.haegroup.com 3
Whie the oca food movement has gained momentum recenty, it is unikey to become a major deveopment because: Transportation costs account ony for approximatey 4% of the tota cost of food to the consumer. Uness energy costs increase dramaticay, it wi sti be more economica to produce food in regions with the owest goba production costs and transport it to goba popuation centers. Ony a sma percentage of the popuation wi have the affuence and the incination to insist on oca food sources. Goba food demand wi continue to grow rapidy. The key factors driving demand are: Popuation growth Growth of the midde cass The next two graphics provide estimates for the change in both of these key demand drivers. The goba rate of growth in food demand wi not be distributed eveny. The food industry in industriaized nations of the word wi experience sow growth. The reaity is: Popuation growth in these countries is expected to remain at a ow rate. In the deveoped word, caoric requirements have been met and most ikey exceeded for the average consumer. Most of these countries strugge with obesity probems. Companies in industriaized nations wi seek growth opportunities in deveoping countries. The net upshot wi be a much more interconnected food industry in 2020 and the impication is that today s food industry participants wi face new competitors from other nations that bring different ski sets and ways of doing business. In the future, companies wi compete with the best of the best in the word, not just the best of the best in their own country. To succeed, companies wi have to be nimbe in facing new, different, and formidabe competitors. TheHae www.haegroup.com 4
2. The Expansion of Agricutura Production: A Focus on South America and Africa The Food and Agricuture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) projects that the word wi need to produce 50% more food in the year 2030 than it does currenty. A significant portion of the increase in agricutura production needed to meet this demand increase wi come from higher yieds. Looking back, the increase in production from 1961-1999 resuted from: 78% yied increases 15% increased and devoted to agricuture 7% greater cropping intensity (doube cropping, coser rows, etc.) However, increases in crop yieds have been sowing down in recent years. Advances in crop biotechnoogy may hep to sow this downward trend, but that remains to be demonstrated on a goba basis. Goba agricuture wi have to increase its overa capacity due to both the growing demand for food and the inexorabe creep of urbanization on desirabe farmand. Human popuation and agricutura capacity are not distributed proportionatey around the gobe - many of the most popuous countries in the word have imited abiity to expand food production. Much of the underutiized agricutura capacity of the word is ocated in South America and Africa. The foowing tabes show the and and water avaiabe in key countries of the word. TheHae www.haegroup.com 5
Brazi From a financia investment perspective, Brazi is the most attractive country in the word for increased production in the future given the foowing factors: It has vast and and water resources. Labor is reativey inexpensive. The government has encouraged the export of agricutura commodities and food products. The ogistics of getting food to market is sti deficient, but improving significanty. There are many exampes of arge-scae farmers who are succeeding in the export of goba food commodities. Goba investment in Braziian agricuture wi continue to grow rapidy and become a more dominant suppier to the goba marketpace. Africa Parts of Africa have ong-term potentia as we: Land and water resources are pentifu. Labor is avaiabe. The chaenges in deveoping the potentia are greater in Africa than in Brazi: Many of the nationa governments are weak and dysfunctiona. The ega and financia system is not we deveoped. The ogistics (infrastructure) for getting food to market is deficient. Many commercia farms that are trying to deveop the potentia in parts of Africa are finding it to be very chaenging. Despite the chaenges in Africa, some countries, especiay the weathy Musim or Midde Eastern countries, are ikey to invest heaviy in seected regions and countries within Africa during the next decade. Concerns about neocooniaism or agrocooniaism are being raised in the media, especiay as it reates to agricutura investments in Africa. Whie the potentia threat of neo-cooniaism is very rea, the deveopment of Africa s agricuture can be done in a way that resuts in a win-win for both the host country and the investor. The United States, Western Europe, Canada, and Austraia wi continue to be arge producers and major exporters of food; however, Africa wi begin to deveop and wi become more important in subsequent decades. The impication is that food manufacturers around the word must be abe to source high quaity raw materias from new and different sources in diverse countries and cutures to remain cost competitive. TheHae www.haegroup.com 6
3. Agricuture Becomes More Sophisticated Americans have a positive image of farmers, and they ike to think of their food as coming from a sma famiy farm. The image of the famiy farm from the 1950s sti ingers in the minds of many Americans. In its ast Census of Agricuture in 2007, the U.S. Department of Agricuture reported 2.2 miion farmers in the U.S. However, one can argue that ony 100,000 of them are significant size business operations: Roughy, 2.5% of U.S. farmers produced 60% of tota production. Roughy, 4.5% of U.S. farmers produced 74% of tota production. Roughy, 10% of U.S. farmers produced 85% of tota production. By contrast, in 1992, 17% of U.S. farmers produced 83% of tota production. As one exampe, the U.S. hog industry is undergoing rapid consoidation, as shown in the figure beow: In 1988, the arger hog farmers (those who sod 50,000 or more hogs for saughter per year) accounted for roughy 7% of tota U.S. production. In 2006, farmers of that size accounted for roughy 65% of tota U.S. production. Whie many of these arger farms are famiy-owned, they are not the sma, idyic farms of our grandfathers from the 1950s. They are arge-scae, efficient, sophisticated production businesses. The FAO and the Word Bank wish to stimuate economic deveopment in rura areas supporting subsistence farmers in many of the deveoping countries of the word. This is a chaenging, but nobe goa. It improves the ives of subsistence farmers and their famiies. It reduces the incentives for these poorest of the poor from migrating to overcrowded cities in search of jobs that often do not exist. However, even if major progress is made in this regard, it is inadequate to meet the rapidy growing demand for food. Poor subsistence farmers do not represent enough everage in aggregate. If success in significanty increasing their crop yieds is achieved, the tota increase in production is sti not arge enough to suppy growing demand. The impication is that in order to meet the rapidy growing demands for more food, farming operations around the word wi become arge, efficient, and technoogicay sophisticated. That means food manufacturers wi need to obtain raw materias from businesses that are much more knowedgeabe and sophisticated than their traditiona suppiers. TheHae www.haegroup.com 7
4. Voatie Food Prices Is the New Reaity Food prices have aways fuctuated. The vagaries of nature create uncertainty and food price fuctuations. However, 2007-08 witnessed huge price spikes due to severa factors: Adverse weather conditions in Austraia and other parts of the word. The rapid growth of the U.S. ethano industry. Reativey ow inventories of raw commodities. The entrance of arge specuators into the agricutura futures markets. Voatiity of petroeum prices. Prices subsequenty have decined consideraby. The growth of the U.S. ethano industry has sowed; however, the food industry wi not go back to business as usua. The foowing factors indicate that price fuctuation wi be an ongoing reaity in this era to a much greater degree than the majority of the ast severa decades: Petroeum prices wi fuctuate as the goba economy revives. New energy technoogies may cause disruptions in petroeum markets. The U.S. and European governments have greaty reduced their roe as a keeper of commodity stockpies, and thus a provider of a food safety net. The search for aternative energy sources has provided an aternative revenue source for farmers that wi pace greater strain on agricutura capacity wordwide. Goba weather patterns appear to be changing (whether it is induced by humans or not) and this is ikey to: Create greater voatiity in crop size due to severe storms, drought, extreme heat. Shift the ocation of where major commodities can be economicay produced. The impication is that price voatiity is the new reaity; therefore, mitigating price voatiity wi demand new strategies for food companies and the consequences of not doing so are catastrophic. 5. Managing the Food Movement from Farm to Consumer: More Compex and Risky, but Highy Strategic Having mosty regiona suppiers of raw agricutura commodities created a simpe suppy chain. In the future, the suppy chain may stretch hafway around the word. The suppy chain wi inevitaby become more compex because: Tomorrow s suppy chain wi incude more countries at a greater distance from the fina manufacturing pant. This and other factors wi increase pressure on the industry to provide reiabe systems for food traceabiity from farm to tabe. Manufacturers wi need to cope with an array of compex import and export reguations in a variety of countries. The demand of branded companies to provide a consistent product wi intensify compexity when raw materias are obtained from very disparate ocations. Risk for food manufacturers and foodservice operators wi increase because of: Price voatiity. Poitica risk in producing countries. Voatie weather patterns. Greater potentia for abor disruptions in a ong suppy chain. The impication is that suppy chain management wi require greater attention at the very highest eves of the corporation. Success in managing the suppy chain effectivey wi be a source of competitive advantage and ineffectiveness wi be a greater cause of faiure. TheHae www.haegroup.com 8
6. Investment Capita and Attention by Muti-Nationas Moves to Emerging Nations / Economies As the growth of the U.S. foodservice industry sows and margin pressure increases, the fow of capita wi move to emerging economies, i.e., Brazi, India, Maaysia, and China, etc., and away from the U.S. The investment in U.S. pant and equipment by muti-nationa food companies wi be to increase productivity with itte to none invested in new capacity. The impications are: New capacity wi be advanced by domestic-based and focused companies. Muti-nationas wi be highy efficient with products they produce here because the target investment is predictabe. Capacity utiization wi minimize free capacity currenty used to support promotiona periods or voume drives. Muti-nationas wi acquire innovative companies to add to portfoio versus green-fied deveopment of new pursuits. It is anticipated that as discovery companies have emerged in the consumer packaged goods and pharmaceutica industries, so too wi they emerge in the foodservice industry. The Foodservice Operating Environment 2020 The operating environment within the foodservice industry wi continue to shift as we move through the 2010 decade toward 2020. The factors that drove the growth of the foodservice industry over the ast severa decades have reached a baance. These incude the growth of convenience as women entered the work force, the expansion of foodservice ocations, and the increased share of the consumer s food doars to foods prepared away-from-home. The future wi not ook ike the past; the future foodservice environment wi require different and more refined skis and different approaches by suppiers to this industry. The Hae, based on its anaysis, has deveoped a forecast of the industry s operating environment by 2020 and the impications for participants in the foodservice channe. 1. Sow Growth Leads to Share Battes The rea growth of the U.S. foodservice industry sows to refect itte more than popuation growth (0.8 1.0% annuay). For organizations with ambitions above fat saes, they must take share from others. The rising tide wi no onger foat a boats. The impications of sow growth and requirements for success in a share batte incude: Products and services offered to customers and consumers must have a cear and demonstrabe vaue proposition why your product is better than other ike offerings. The benefit of your product or service must be tangibe and recognizabe by customers and consumers. TheHae www.haegroup.com 9
A segmented and targeted approach to customers and consumers wi be the best practice. This wi require a more anaytica, structured, directed, and measured approach to business deveopment arming your saes / account deveopment team for retention, penetration, and acquisition in order to gain share. Business deveopment wi be a highy targeted process with business soutions versus products aone. The soutions wi be a bunding of products, services and information; and to take these soutions to market, teams wi be required - not a saes person aone. Success wi require effective, high-performance teams that can deveop new business and buid with existing customers. If the manufacturer has a brokered saes representation, the broker must be fuy integrated into the business deveopment process and team effort. Brokers wi be ess than effective if they are on the outside ooking in. They must become integrated the same way as other team members. Gaining share requires a systems approach to the business versus individua functions doing their best independenty. 2. 80% of A Operator Purchases Consoidated and Contracted It wi not be surprising that by 2020, neary 80% of a purchases of foodservice operators wi be conducted by a centraized entity and governed by a highy structured contract. Today, such purchasing activities account for coser to 60% of a purchases by foodservice operators. The impication of moving to a more structured approach to purchasing and the conduct of business wi ca for significant organizationa change. This has profound impications on business structures, processes, practices, and organizationa competencies Is my business structure and mode designed to compete in this type of future operating environment? TheHae www.haegroup.com 10
The major change wi be from that of making deas with customers to creating contracts that are performance-based, consistenty monitored and have a reward / penaty cause at cose-out How do we prepare to be more structured in deveopment of agreements versus et s make a dea? The 20% of purchases made outside consoidated purchasing organizations wi primariy be independents, ethnic restaurants, and start-ups (new concepts) which wi be served by speciaty outets and cash & carry type whoesaers, cubs, depots, etc. Are we positioned to continue to reach the independents and serve them? 3. The Death of Saes and Emergence of Account and Segment Teams This is a dramatic headine, but its purpose is to capture attention. If the word of 2020 ooks as The Hae forecasts, then a new approach to business deveopment wi aso foow. First, with more contractua reationships, it means: Longer business deveopment and seing / purchasing cyces. Major commitments of resources to estabish a contract and performance standards and to monitor impementation. Greater price and margin risk for the manufacturer or distributor. More compex terms, metrics, and performance standards. The notion that a saes person can be given a number and then chase that for the year is inconsistent with requirements for success in the future. Saes as we know it today wi no onger exist by 2020 or wi be on ife support. The new generation of demand creation modes wi be account or segment teams; and what was previousy known as saes managers wi be account managers or business deveopment managers. The impications are profound because they again require organizationa change, which is aways chaenging. Some of the changes wi incude: Having a strong organizationa competence around negotiation and contract management. Contract standards to streamine the process of negotiations, documentation, and monitoring. Fatter organizations, fewer ayers and ess hierarchy in the business deveopment area. Again, a team approach since it is not ony saes and marketing invoved but aso finance, suppy chain, operations, ega and anaytica. Deveop strong working reationships with customers based on performance, integrity and trust. The critica chaenge wi be to attract, deveop and retain the taent poo to shift from saes to account and business managers. Consoidated and/or Centraized Purchasing in the Foodservice Channe Hierarchy Saes & Marketing Deas Move From Many Customers Fat To Accounts and/or Segment Teams Structured, Measure Contracts Seected Customers and Broader, Deeper Business Reationships TheHae www.haegroup.com 11
4. Suppy Chain as the Critica Basis of Competition Suppy chain encompasses those activities necessary to fufi the demand a business deveopment team creates; historicay, it was viewed as order fufiment. However, the suppy chains of manufacturers, distributors and operators wi be in the center of the success mode bu s-eye by 2020. As contracts are created, executed and monitored, it wi not be that which was promised as a critica success factor, but rather what was fufied. Suppy chain characteristics of greater importance incude: Reiabiity performs against defined expectation. Integrity safe, secure, and traceabe; consider the changes in the capacity modes to meet FDA product ot contro. Transparency visibiity to movement, inventories, in transit and customer feedback in rea time. Efficiency eiminates waste and redundancy to perform at ow cost. Socia responsibiity in business practices to incude being humane, sustainabe, fair and green. The impication is that suppy chain is not a back-room operating partner in retaining and deveoping customers, but at the tabe as a key payer. Suppy chain eadership in foodservice needs to be recognized as the requirement for success. Beyond warehouses, transport and cases. Fufiment consistent with contractua terms / expectations. Constant improvement to eiminate wastefu practices and buid high performance at ower cost. Abiity for customers to see their suppy chain in rea time pu information and insight versus a push-out of information (FedEx mode). Demand forecasting and updates to assure dependabiity of suppy (the Wa-Mart mode). Anticipates and responds appropriatey to be sociay responsibe. As individua contracts govern arger pieces of business, business churn (the eaky bucket is often due to nonperformance) is untenabe. Business deveopment cannot overcome a eaky bucket. In a share batte environment and one governed by contractua agreement with rewards and penaties, suppy chain is in the bu s-eye of the success mode. 5. Shared Information / Insight is the Currency of Success If there is one concept that wi characterize the operating environment of 2020 as being quite different than 2010, it is coaboration based on shared information and insights. During the growth phase of the foodservice industry, hoding information cose to the vest was the formua for winning. In 2020, customers or consumers that are trusted and oya partners deserve and demand shared information that eads to a coective win. Winning by paying on the discontinuities in the market wi give way in 2020 to winning by understanding and fufiing the needs of the market based on a much more granuar insight and shared view. TheHae www.haegroup.com 12
As mentioned earier in this commentary, the transparency of the suppy chain information is but one aspect of information sharing; the information between trading partners, i.e., operators, distributors, manufacturers, wi cover the fu range of the business mode. Consumer / customer transactions. Consumer / customer insights. Demand forecasting taking into account promotion activity and product specias. Contractua monitoring for a parties. Probem resoution processes. Accuracy of orders. Dependabiity of deivery. Food safety and quaity insurance. The impications of sharing information and insights impact organizations in many different ways, but to mention just a few: Manufacturers, distributors, business deveopment organizations, and operators wi become further aigned and working partnerships formed. Impicity, the customer portfoio mix becomes a distinct and expicit decision as to whom to partner with. Trust based on reputation, performance and history wi be critica to sustaining these working reationships, for ony in the context of trust wi information begin to fow freey. Information avaiabiity means organizations must have the anaytica ski to use the information, and the authority or power to act on the information. Information-rich environments ony have vaue if the business process, governance and competencies are in pace to uneash the vaue of the insights. Information systems must be connected in ways that enabe / foster constant update and rea-time avaiabiity. 6. Innovation Creates the Upside, but ROI Is Carefuy Managed There is no question that without innovation, the existing portfoio of products migrates to ower margin commodity-type products and financia returns; therefore, innovation is a basic requirement to remain a financiay attractive proposition. Smart Innovation wi characterize the winners in 2020. Smart Innovation : Is focused on customer-recognized probems and / or opportunities. Produces tangibe / measurabe resuts / benefits. Is conducted with strategic customers and / or segments. Provides sufficient time in market to everage market advantage and financia benefits. Innovation in foodservice for a manufacturer or distributor is a business-to-business environment and thus unike the branded Consumer Packaged Goods channe with abiity to brand innovation against a consumer. In the B-2-B environment, the major mutiunit operator most often wants mutipe suppiers. This means sharing and icensing innovation. Capturing a fair ROI on the innovation must be carefuy managed. Innovation by 2020 uses a far broader range of inputs and coaboration to create vaue-generating innovation. Open innovation wi be widey embraced by eading firms in foodservice. The mechanisms used by CPG and pharmaceutica firms wi shape the approach foodservice manufacturers, distributors and operators take toward innovation. TheHae www.haegroup.com 13
The impications of Smart Innovation : Innovation is a must, but must be financiay managed resource input versus expected margin capture. Open innovation requires a horizonta organizationa structure / approach versus sio d vertica structure. New toos to get ideas, deveop, test and sort innovation ideas wi be in ine with customers and consumers and thus a more open, anaytica, rea-time response to ideas. Innovation wi be a coaborative and business-oriented effort that is highy objective and focused in terms of what is rea, recognized and vaued innovation it produces benefits for the customer / consumer. Summary The objective of this white paper is to gavanize organizations to think broady about the future and begin to act now. The Hae and its cients continue to ook ahead and chaenge the status quo as a means to improve performance near term and future. If you have observations which you beieve shoud be incuded or shared, pease contact us; in addition, if we can assist your organization to deveop, anayze, and engage, we woud wecome the opportunity. About The Hae The Hae provides strategic counse to the food system focusing on mapping and navigating opportunities for profitabe growth discover, anayze, strategize, impement, measure. Founded in 1986, its cient base is goba in nature and progressive in thoughts and actions. The underying phiosophy of the firm s efforts on behaf of its cients, and in coaboration with them, is to formuate strategies that enabe cients to break through the market cutter and identify patforms for growth. Our products and services incude: Strategy Organizationa Effectiveness Strategic Panning Faciitation Opportunity Anaysis Operating Efficiencies For more information about The Hae or to view other Strategic Initiatives, visit our website at www.haegroup.com, ca us at 978.777.9077 or emai us at hae@haegroup.com. TheHae 2010. The Hae, Ltd. 14