Student Investment Fund Stock Report Recommendation: Buy Market Cap: $. Bil Recent Price: $. (//) Target Price: $. Paychex, Inc. NASDAQ:PAYX Analysts: Carolyn VanderStaay & Juan Hernandez-Martinez Primary Sector: Payroll Services Secondary Sector: Data Processing Services Highlights Low capital requirements consistently drive the ROIC in the range of %- %; FY ROIC is % Inherent scalability of operations delivers higher margins relative to the industry FY is the th consecutive year of record total revenue, net income, and diluted EPS Two-thirds of new clients come from referral sources such as CPAs, banks and current clients Client retention was % in FY Key Statistics Metrics Paychex, Inc ADP, Inc. -year ROIC % % WACC % % -year Revenue Growth.%.% Gross Margin.%.% Operating Margin.%.% Profit Margin.%.% Long Term Debt -- $M Pretax ROE.%.% -year average ROE.%.% Pretax ROA.%.% Return on Capital (ROC).%.% Reinvestment Rate.%.% ROE Relative to S&P.. Price Performance Business Summary Paychex, Inc. is a leading provider of comprehensive payroll and integrated human resource and employee benefits outsourcing solutions for small- to medium-sized businesses in the U.S. Their services include payroll processing, payroll tax administration services, employee payment services, and other payroll-related services, including regulatory compliance. Paychex's Human Resource Services includes its Professional Employer Organization, retirement services administration, workers' compensation insurance services, health and benefits services, time and attendance solutions and other products and services. As of May,, they serviced approximately, clients and had approximately,. Paychex maintains their corporate headquarters in Rochester, New York, and has more than offices nationwide. They also serviced approximately, clients in Germany through four offices. PAYX Industry S&P Profitability vs. the Industry PAYX ADP ASF Industry Gross Margin Operating Margin Profit Margin Page
Company Overview Paychex has built around it a protective barrier to economic downturns that is driven by Student Investment Fund Stock Report: PAYX High customer switching costs allows Paychex to build a relatively sticky client base Low capital requirements drive a high return on capital and Inherent scalability allows Paychex to add new customers without incurring direct marginal costs % of new clients come from referrals such as CPAs, banks and current clients FY was the th consecutive year of record Revenue, Net Income and EPS Products and Services Payroll processing is the foundation of the Paychex service portfolio and drives % of its revenue. Payroll processing ancillary services include payroll tax administration services, employee payment services, and other payroll-related services, including regulatory compliance. Paychex's Human Resource Services includes its Professional Employer Organization (PEO), retirement services administration, workers' compensation insurance services, health and benefits services, time and attendance solutions and other products and services. Paychex also earns interest on funds held for clients between the time of collection from our clients and remittance to the applicable tax or regulatory agency. Interest Income historically accounts for % of total revenue. Clients In FY, client retention was approximately % of their beginning of the year client base, as switching costs are high for small-tomedium sized businesses. The most significant factors affecting client retention are companies going out of business or no longer having any. Paychex's client base is not industry specific and it clients operate in a broad range of industries. No single client has a material impact on total service revenue. Company Strategy Paychex capitalizes on growth opportunities within their current client base and from new clients by increasing utilization of their ancillary services and products including payroll tax administration services and employee payment services. The portfolio of ancillary services provides Paychex with additional recurring revenue streams and increased service efficiencies as Paychex has integrated these services and products with the core payroll processing services and can leverage the information gathered in the base payroll processing system. Ancillary Service Utilization rate FY Revenue Growth Payroll tax administration services % % Employee payment services % % Paychex leverages its highly developed technological and operating infrastructure and proprietary software. Paychex is also able to supplement growth through strategic acquisitions or expansion of service offerings. Industry Outlook Although Paychex, Inc. classifies itself as both a firm in the Accounting, Tax, Bookkeeping & Payroll Services sector, and as a firm in the Data Processing Services segment in the US, therefore we need to consider the outlook of both sectors to understand Paychex's potential outlook. Both of these sectors are dependent on overall trends in Outsourcing in the U.S. Analysts expect the outsourcing of data processing needs to accelerate over the -year outlook horizon. Analysts also report that HR functions are among the most common business functions outsourced. Sector Life Cycle Accounting, Tax, Bookkeeping Growth.%.%.%.%.% & Payroll Services IT Support, CRM & Data Processing Services Mature High Growth.%.%.%.%.% Carolyn VanderStaay & Juan Hernandez-Martinez Page
Market Opportunities Student Investment Fund Stock Report: PAYX There are approximately. million employers in the geographic markets that Paychex currently serves within the U.S and of those employers, over % have fewer than and are the primary customers and target market. Based on publicly available industry data, analysts estimate that all payroll processors combined serve approximately % of the potential businesses in the target market. The un-penetrated market is composed of businesses with or fewer. Paychex, Inc. market segmentation shows that % of their business comes from companies with and fewer. % % + % Target Market % % + % % Paychex Client Base % Approximately two-thirds of new clients (excluding acquisitions) come from referrals from strong relationships with existing clients, CPAs and banks. Paychex formed a partnership with American Institute of Certified Public Accountants and is now the preferred payroll provider for its AICPA Business Solutions Partner Program. Competitive Analysis Paychex, Inc. s closest national competitor is ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.), the largest third-party provider of payroll processing and human resource services in terms of revenue. Paychex and ADP combined serve % of this market. Paychex has left the servicing of larger firms to ADP and, at least for the current time, these firms have stayed out of each other s markets, avoiding the intense competitive behavior that saps margins and profits. Paychex has a greater ability than ADP to drive dollars out of its operations, as both its Operating Margin and its Profit Margin is more than twice that of ADP. Metric PAYX ADP Gross Margin.%.% Operating Margin.%.% Profit Margin.%.% Long Term Debt -- $M Excellence and discipline in operations drives returns for Paychex that are higher than its industry competitors are. Profitability Metrics Paychex, Inc ADP, Inc. Administaff, Inc. Pretax ROE.%.%.% -year average ROE.%.%.% Pretax ROA.%.%.% Return on Capital (ROC).%.%.% Reinvestment Rate.%.%.% ROE Relative to S&P... For Paychex, the ROIC, WACC and Revenue Growth metrics, all components required for creation of value, are also significantly higher than its competitor's metrics. Metric PAYX ADP -year Average ROIC % % WACC % % -year Average Revenue Growth.%.% Carolyn VanderStaay & Juan Hernandez-Martinez Page
Valuation Student Investment Fund Stock Report: PAYX Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model and Forecast Using a customized DCF model, our estimated per share intrinsic value of Paychex is $., compared with the recent closing stock price of $.. Estimated Per Share Market Close Intrinsic Value $. $. Paychex has a stable and consistent operational footprint; therefore, the DCF model assumptions listed below were straightforward to extract from -year historical averages. DCF Model Parameter Cost of Sales % SG&A % Tax Rate % Cash % Receivables % Good Will % ST Investments % Historical Value The team modified the following model assumptions to reflect current and future business conditions. DCF Model Parameter Historical Value Model Value Revenue Growth % FY % Horizon %-% Justification To reflect a conservative approach to valuation Dividends payout as % of NI % % Paychex dramatically increased their payout ratio in FY continued the trend in Q FY Interest Income % % To reflect volatile interest rates Net PPE.% % To reflect investments in infrastructure over time Long Term Investment Results of Model Forecast % % To reflect the current trend in allocation of assets Because Paychex has high ROIC, wide ROIC over the WACC spread, and expected revenue growth from market opportunities, the model forecasted that Paychex will continue current trends of EVA, MVA, NOPAT, FCF, EPS, DPS as the graphs below demonstrate. Carolyn VanderStaay & Juan Hernandez-Martinez Page
Student Investment Fund Stock Report: PAYX Market Risks Paychex faces the following risks to its strategic plans: The current recession, which has the potential to be long and severe, could hurt Paychex's ability to meet target growth rates Interest income from temporary funds are unreliable given the current interest rate environment The firm s Professional Employer Organization service line is exposed to a greater amount of regulatory risk. Recommendation-Buy Paychex has built around it a protective barrier to economic downturns that is driven by: High customer switching costs allows Paychex to build a relatively sticky client base Low capital requirements drive a high return on capital and Inherent scalability allows Paychex to add new customers without incurring direct marginal costs Additionally: Paychex has no debt FY was the th consecutive year of record Revenue, Net Income and EPS Paychex is a dividend-paying stock with expected yields starting at above.% Paychex has demonstrated, through its financial results, consistent long-term discipline and excellence in execution Carolyn VanderStaay & Juan Hernandez-Martinez Page
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of A B C D E F G H I J K L M N Forecasted income statement items are based on years of historical average ratios unless a value is entered in the Enter Firm Ticker PAYX manual cell, in which case the manual entry overrides the historical average. The idea is to consider whether the historical average is truly representative of what the firm can achieve in the future. values in millions Historical Income Statements Forecasting Percentages Enter first financial statement year in cell B Average Manual Total revenue,,,,, Revenue Growth.%.%.%.%.%.% Cost of goods sold COGS % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Gross profit,,, SG&A expense SG&A % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.% Research & Development R&D % of Sales Depreciation/Amortization D&A % of Sales Interest expense (income), operating () () () () () Inc. Exp. Oper. -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% -.% Non-recurring expenses Exp. Non-rec Other operating expenses Other exp. Operating Income Interest income (expense), non-operating Int. inc. non-oper..%.%.%.%.%.% Gain (loss) on sale of assets Gain (loss) asset sales Other income, net Other income, net Income before tax Income tax Tax rate.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Income after tax Minority interest Minority interest Equity in affiliates Equity in affiliates U.S. GAAP adjustment U.S. GAAP adjust. Net income before extraordinary items Extraordinary items, total Extrordinary items Net income Net Income.%.%.%.%.% Total adjustments to net income Adjustments to NI Basic weighted average shares Share growth.%.%.% -.% -.% Basic EPS excluding extraordinary items......% Basic EPS including extraordinary items......% Diluted weighted average shares Diluted share growth.%.%.% -.% -.% Diluted EPS excluding extraordinary items......% Diluted EPS including extraordinary items......% Dividends per share -- common stock......% Gross dividends -- common stock Dividend % of Net Income.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Retained earnings
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z Revenues grow at the same rate each year unless a growth value is manually entered in the cell above the forecast year, in which case the year-by-year value overrides the historical or manual average. It makes sense to start tapering the growth forecasts or years into the forecast period. Year-by-year revenue growth.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Forecasted Income Statements -- Years year Total revenue,,,,,,,,,, Cost of goods sold,,,, Gross profit,,,,,,,,,, SG&A expense, Research & Development Depreciation/Amortization Interest expense (income), operating () () () () () () () () () () Non-recurring expenses Other operating expenses Operating Income,,,,,,, Interest income (expense), non-operating Gain (loss) on sale of assets Other income, net Income before tax,,,,,,, Income tax Income after tax Minority interest Equity in affiliates U.S. GAAP adjustment Net income before extraordinary items Extraordinary items, total Net income Total adjustments to net income Basic weighted average shares Basic EPS excluding extraordinary items.......... Basic EPS including extraordinary items.......... Diluted weighted average shares Diluted EPS excluding extraordinary items.......... Diluted EPS including extraordinary items.......... Dividends per share -- common stock.......... Gross dividends -- common stock Retained earnings
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of AA AB AC AD AE AF AG AH AI AJ AK AL AM AN Enter Firm Ticker PAYX Forecasted balance sheet items are based on years of historical average ratios unless a value is entered in the manual cell, in which case the manual entry overrides the historical average. The idea is to consider whether the historical average is truly representative of what the firm can achieve in the future. values in millions Historical Balance Sheets Forecasting Percentages Year Average Manual Assets Cash & equivalents Cash % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.% Short term investments,,,,, ST Invest. % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.% Receivables, total Receivables % Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Inventory, total Inventory % of Sales Prepaid expenses Pre. Exp. % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Other current assets, total Other CA % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Total Current Assets,,,,, Property, plant and equipment (net) Net PPE % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Goodwill Goodwill % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Intangibles Intangibles % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Long term investments LT Invest. % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.% Notes receivable -- long term Notes Rec. % of Sales Other long term assets, total Other LT ass. % Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Other assets, total Other assets % Sales Total assets,,,,, Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity Accounts payable Acc. Payable % Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Payable/accrued Pay/accured % Sales Accrued expenses Acc. Exp. % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Notes payable/short term debt Notes payable % Sales Current portion of LT debt/capital leases Curr. debt % of Sales Other current liabilities,,,,, Other curr liab % Sales.%.%.%.%.%.% Total Current Liabilities,,,,,.%.%.%.%.%.% Long term debt, total LT debt % of Sales Deferred income tax Def. inc. tax % Sales.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Minority interest Min. Int. % of Sales Other liabilities, total Other liab. % of Sales.%.%.%.%.%.% Total Liabilities,,,,, Preferred stock (redeemable) Preferred stock (unredeemable) Common stock Additonal paid-in capital.%.%.%.%.%.% Retained earnings (accumluated deficit),,, Retained Earnings.%.%.% -.% -.% Treasury stock -- common ESOP Debt Guarantee Other equity, total (unrealized gain) () () () () The model uses the more conservative diluted common shares Total Shareholders' Equity,,,,, number for total shares outstanding. Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity,,,,, Diluted weighted average shares Diluted share growth.%.%.% -.% -.% Total preferred shares outstanding Preferred share growth
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of AO AP AQ AR AS AT AU AV AW AX AY AZ ST Investments as a % of Sales % % % % % % % % % % Cash & equivalents Forecasted Balance Sheets -- Years Year Assets Cash & equivalents Short term investments,,,,,,,,,, Receivables, total Inventory, total Prepaid expenses Other current assets, total Total Current Assets,,,,,,,,,, Property, plant and equipment (net) Goodwill Intangibles Long term investments Notes receivable -- long term Other long term assets, total Other assets, total Total assets,,,,,,,,,, Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity Accounts payable Payable/accrued Accrued expenses Notes payable/short term debt Current portion of LT debt/capital leases Other current liabilities,,,,,,,,,, Total Current Liabilities,,,,,,,,,, Long term debt, total Deferred income tax Minority interest Other liabilities, total Total Liabilities,,,,,,,,,, Preferred stock (redeemable) Preferred stock (unredeemable) Common stock Additonal paid-in capital,,,,,, Retained earnings (accumluated deficit),,,,,,,,, Treasury stock -- common ESOP Debt Guarantee Other equity, total Total Shareholders' Equity,,,,,,,,,, Total Liabilities and Shareholders' Equity,,,,,,,,,, Total common shares (diluted) Total preferred shares outstanding AFN (interactive with items below).......... Adjustment to LT Debt (iterate or use Goal Seek) Issue Common Stock to Fund AFN Set Balance Sheet Cash (or ST Investment) Lower to Fund AFN Set Balance Sheet ST Investments Lower to Fund AFN,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.,.
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of BA BB BC BD BE BF BG BH BI BJ BK BL BM BN BO BP Enter Firm Ticker PAYX values in millions Historical Ratios and Valuation Model Forecasted Ratios and Valuation Model -- Years Liquidity Current Quick Net Working Capital to Total Assets Asset Management Days Sales Outstanding Inventory Turnover Fixed Assets Turnover Total Assets Turnover Debt Management Long-Term Debt to Equity Total Debt to Total Assets Times Interest Earned................................................................................ Profitability Gross Profit Margin.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Operating Profit Margin.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Net After-Tax Profit Margin.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Total Assets Turnover............... Return on Assets.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Equity Multiplier............... Return on Equity.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% EPS (using diluted shares, excluding extraordinary items............... DPS (dividends per share)............... Valuation Metrics Trend Analysis (NOPAT, EVA, MVA, FCF and Capital in millions) Forecasted Valuation Metrics -- Years NOPAT (net operating profit after tax) ROIC (return on invested capital).%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% EVA (economic value added) FCF (free cash flow) Weighted Average Cost of Capital.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Net Operating Working Capital (NOWC) Operating Long Term Assets Total Operating Capital Valuation (in millions where appropriate) -- through year Long-term Horizon Value Growth Rate (user-supplied).% PV of Forecasted FCF, discounted at.% $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Value of Non-Operating Assets $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Total Intrinsic Value of the Firm $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Intrinsic Market Value of the Equity $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Per Share Intrinsic Value of the Firm $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. MVA (market value added) $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Weighted Average Cost of Capital Calculations Capital Asset Pricing Model Item Value Percent Cost Weighted Cost Risk Free Rate.% ST Debt (from most recent balance sheet).%.%.% Beta. LT Debt (from most recent balance sheet).%.%.% Market Risk Prem..% MV Equity (look up stock's mkt. cap and enter in cell BB,.%.%.% Cost of Equity.% Weighted Average Cost of Capital.%
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of BQ BR BS BT BU BV BW BX BY BZ CA CB CC CD CE CF CG CH In this section we are going to examine historical and forecasted ratios (or "multiples") typically used to value stocks P/CF, Enterprise Value/EBITDA, etc. We first want to compare the historical trends in these ratios to the trends in their forecasted values. If our forecasted multiples are systematically increasing or decreasing our forecasts may be too optimistic or pessimistic, and our forecast assumptions may have to be adjusted. Second, we want to compare our discounted cash flow valuation estimates with those derived from the various multiples. Once again, if there is a large discrepancy between our DCF valuation estimate of the company's stock and the range of values obtained from the various multiples, we may want to adjust our forecast assumptions.. You will need to look up the company's year end stock prices and enter them in the first (historical) years of the "per share value" category.. Use the estimated DCF price per share in the forecasted period (link to your forecasted prices in cells BG BP.. Market capitalization will be calculated as basic weighted shares x historical year end prices and then forecasted basic weighted shares x DCF forecasted prices.. As with previous calculations, historical multiples use actual historical values and forecasted multiples use forecasted values. Historical Ratios and Valuation Forecasted Ratios and Valuation Inputs E E E E E E E E E E Per share value (hist. & DCF est.) $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Market capitalization $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, EBITDA $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $, $, $, $, Enterprise Value $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Multiples Price/Sales............... Price/EBITDA............... Price/Free Cash Flow.............. Enterprise Value/EBITDA............... Price/Earnings............... Dividend Yield.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.% Historical Override Forecasted Stock Prices Based on Historical Multiples -- Years Valuation Estimates Based On: Average w/manual E E E E E E E E E E Price/Sales. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Price/EBITDA. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Price/Free Cash Flow. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Enterprise Value/EBITDA. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Price/Earnings. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Low Price $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. High Price $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. DCF Price $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. $. Price/Sales and Enterprise Value/EBITDA vs. Price Forecasted Per Share Stock Values $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Price/Sales Enterprise Value/EBITDA DCF Price Low Price DCF Price High Price P/S and Ent. Value/EBITDA DCF Price Forecasted Value Per Share
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of CI CJ CK CL CM CN CO CP CQ CR CS CT CU CV CW CX CY CZ DA DB Price/Earnings Ratio Gross Margin Economic Value Added % % % % % % % $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Price/Earnings Ratio and Dividend Yield Price/Earnings Ratio Dividend Yield Gross, Operating and Net Profit Margins Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Economic Value Added & Market Value Added (millions) Economic Value Added Market Value Added % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, $, Dividend Yield Oper. and Net Profit Margin Market Value Added EPS and DPS ROA, ROE and ROIC NOPAT and Free Cash Flow $. $. $. $. $. $. $. % % % % % % % % % % % % % % $, $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Earnings and Dividends Per Share Earnings Per Share Return on Assets, Equity and Invested Capital Return on Assets Return on Equity Return on Invested Capital NOPAT and Free Cash Flow (millions) NOPAT Dividends Per Share Free Cash Flow
PAYX.xlsm Valuation and Analysis Model, Page of DC DD DE DF DG DH DI DJ DK DL DM DN DO DP DQ DR DS DT DU DV Short Interst (thousands) Days to Cover Ratio Historical P/E Ratio,,,,,,,,,....... Short Interest (thousands of shares) Short Interest (thousands of shares) Days to Cover Ratio (Short Interest Days to Cover Volume) Historical Trends: Price/Earnings Ratio Paychex ADP ASF Avg. Daily Volume Net Insider Transactions Historical P/S Ratio,,,,,,, $ ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,) ($,)........ Average Daily Trading Volume (thousands) Average Daily Volume (thousands of shares) Net Insider Purchases (Sales), $, in thousands Series Historical Trends: Price/Sales Ratio Paychex ADP ASF