A poject anageent uppot tool ung councaton fo agle oftwae developent Noko Hanakawa, Khau Okua Hannan Unvety, Gaduate chool of copoate Infoaton, 5-4-33 Hgah-Aa, Matubaa, Oaka, 580-850, Japan hanakawa@hannan-u.ac.jp Abtact Recently, agle oftwae developent ethod ae popula becaue oftwae hould be developed n a hot peod. Howeve, conventonal poject anageent technque ae often not adaptable to uch new developent ethodologe. Epecally, poge and qualty contol of the docuent-baed anageent doe not ft the agle oftwae developent. Theefoe, a new poject anageent uppot tool ha been developed baed on a new councaton odel. The new odel focue on elatonhp between councaton and poject tate. The bac dea of the odel that good councaton lead to hgh qualty poduct and good poge of poject. Baed on catteng ato of councaton on te ee, the tool can calculate poject tate a a whole. Fo eult of tal expeent, we confed that the tong coelaton coeffcent between the catteng ato of councaton and the poduct qualte. Futheoe, the tool wa appled to open ouce poject. The poject featue wee clafed n councaton analy ung the tool. 1. Intoducton Recently, agle oftwae developent ethod ae popula becaue oftwae hould be developed n a hot peod[15]. Howeve, thee a gnfcant ue n anageal vew. Conventonal docuent-baed poject anageent technque ae often not adaptable to uch new developent ethodologe. Epecally, although poduct qualty contol and poge contol ae potant[5][6], poge and qualty contol of the docuent-baed anageent doe not ft the agle oftwae developent. Develope hould acheve hot developent peod by dnt of elnatng developent docuent; detal degn docuent, detal pecfcaton docuent, detal qualty epot, and poge epot. Manage ae equed to undetand poduct qualty and developent poge wthout the developent docuent. In addton, the anage hould gap vaou poject tate uch a fa, noal, confued tate, ettled wthout the developent docuent. Howeve, checkng the developent docuent an only way of gapng exactly poject tate although develope conue te to ake docuent. To acheve the pupoe of the agle oftwae developent, uch anageal docuent ae not egaded a ndpenable. The anage alway feel uneay untl poject copleton wthout accdent. Moeove, gnfcant poble ay be poceedng ecetly wthout the anage cognton n agle oftwae developent. Theefoe, a new anageent uppot tool ha been developed fo agle oftwae developent. Becaue the tool baed on Epcal Poject Monto [19], councaton can be ecoded autoatcally dung poject. The tool nclude a new councaton odel. The councaton aong develope alway occu not only n agle oftwae developent but alo n vaou developent ethodologe o long a the develope wok n a tea. The bac dea that good councaton eult n hgh qualty poduct and good poge. Councaton ndpenable, and the ot potant lnchpn of develope[7]. In hot, councaton one of gnfcant eaue of poject tate. Ung the tool, anage can gap the vaou poject tate wthout anageal docuent. In th pape, councaton ean all way of undetandng each othe: eetng, conveaton, docuentaton, npecton, and o on. In the odel, we povde two way of analyzng councaton. The ft one a tattcal odel whch etablhed by vaance and kuto of councaton. In the econd one, councaton analyzed by vecto pace odel and cluteng algoth[14]. The ft one le coputatonal coplexty than the econd one. If councaton log have been aleady clafed fo evey topc, the ft way ueful. If councaton log ae not clafed fo evey topc, poject tate hould be calculated n the econd way. Both way ae baed on catteng ato of councaton fo evey topc. The catteng ato ean how occuence of councaton concentate. Councaton occuence concentate nto one te pont. O the councaton occu only oete, that, the councaton occuence catteng. Poject tate ncludng all catteng ato of councaton bette than poject tate ncludng lage catteng ato.
In th pape, ecton how elated wok. Secton 3 decbe the councaton odel, and ecton 4 how an evaluaton of the odel n all-cale expeent. In ecton5, a new tool baed on the odel hown. The tool a pat of Epcal Poject Monto[19]. Ung the tool, open ouce poject ae analyzed. Secton 6 povde a uay and pont out futue eeach.. Related wok Many ueful tool and ethod fo councaton have been popoed. At ft, thee ae valuable tude n an epcal appoach. Dutot et al. popoed councaton etc by tudent expeent n a unvety, and they etablhed epcal faewok ncludng a geneal tuctual equaton odel[4]. The elatonhp between the nube of councaton and context of poject uch a poduct ze, developent ethodology and the nube of develope wee clafed. Baed on epcal data, they entoned that the nube of te n councaton and the nube of councaton wee ueful etc fo clafyng developent poce. d Atou et al. alo tuded exchange patten n councaton n epcal appoach[]. Ung data collected by potocol analy n eal eetng, fou gnfcant type of councaton wee dentfed a chaactetc of pee evew eetng; cogntve ynchonzaton, evew, elaboaton and efneent. Thee tude ndcate that councaton nfluence gnfcant context uch a developent te, poduct qualty and poce. Howeve, thee ae ltaton of adaptablty of th appoach becaue of epcal data collected by only fnhed poject. If new ethodologe adapt to a poject, the collected data ay not be ueful. Thee ae valuable councaton uvey n quetonnae and tattcal analy appoach. Doolen et al. found a gnfcant and potve lnea elatonhp between councaton and tea effectvene and tea ebe atfacton[3]. The uvey ephazed potance of councaton n teawok, anageent poce and oganzatonal cultue. In addton, thee ae any eeache accodng to councaton fequency. Katz and Tuhan howed that oe councaton led to poved poject pefoance[9], Von Hppel noted that fequent councaton wth key cutoe wa egadng bette poduct degn[8], Ancona et al. found that tea wth fequent ntenal councaton had upeo pefoance[1]. Patahkova-Volzdoka et al. alo[13] analyzed elatonhp between councaton fequency and tea pefoance. They uazed too uch councaton pevent fo achevng hgh tea pefoance. Thee uvey and eeache wee baed on anwe of quetonnae. Theefoe, the eult of the uvey ae valuable n only ae tuaton of the uveyed poject. If new technologe ae adapted to poject, the uvey eult ay not be adaptable. The odel appoach valuable to clafy echan of councaton. Onh et al. popoed a councaton odel fo oftwae equeent[1]. The odel clafed thee dffcult cae of councaton. Kuuoto et al. popoed a new odel fo decbng oftwae pocee and an etaton ethod fo the qualty, cot and delvey date of a oftwae poject[10]. Thee odel ae ueful when echan of poble n councaton dung poject would lke to be clafed. Manage can pedct poject tate ung the odel whch ae et up by value of vaable. A an poble n th appoach whethe the value of the vaable ae detened autoatcally. The autho developed tool baed on thee odel. Howeve, the autho dd not enton potance of autoaton of ettng the value of the vaable n the tool. 3. A councaton odel 3.1. A bac dea The poject tate nclude vaou condton; fa, noal, confued, teady. We thnk that councaton dffeent between teady poject tate and confued poject tate. Ou bac dea that catteng ato of councaton occuence elate to poject tate. Fo exaple, n a good poject tate, uch councaton fo olvng poble occu ntenvely. Mebe can concentate on a dcuon fo the oluton. (See A good poject tate of Fg.1). Afte fndng a bet oluton, the oluton executed. Becaue the oluton baed on the uffcent dcuon, the poble olved copletely. A a eult, the councaton fo olvng the poble not o catteng. In contat, a poject wth a bad tate teate a councaton poce; dcuon, fndng oluton, executng the oluton (See A bad poject tate of Fg.1). Becaue dcuon of a poble not uffcent, ebe can not fnd coect oluton. Although the oluton ae executed, not only the ognal poble but alo a new poble occu becaue of the ncoect oluton. A a eult, councaton fo olvng the poble catteng dung long te-cale a hown n A bad poject tate of Fg.1. 3.. Two way of analyzng councaton We popoe two way of analyzng n the councaton odel. The ft way fo councaton whch ha been aleady categozed uch a a ee of bug epot wth a bug nube. The et of the ft way le coputatonal coplexty. Theefoe, the coputaton n the ft way quck, anage can
Nu. of co. Poble Dcuon A good poject tate Fndng a oluton Execute the oluton Nu. of councaton log x Nu. of councaton logx Poble undetand poject tate n eal-te. The econd way fo councaton whch ha not been categozed lke develope conveaton log and e-al log. Thee uch non-categozed councaton n uual poject. Although coputatonal coplexty n the econd way uch, the econd way equed fo non-categozed councaton. At ft, the ft ple way hown, next the econd coplex way of analyzng decbed. All councaton hould be ecoded n both way. Becaue ou tool baed on Epcal Poject Monto[19], the councaton accuulated autoatcally dung poject. Epcal Poject Monto decbed n ecton 4. 3.3. The ft ple way of analyzng The ft way baed on tattcal vaance and kuto of councaton occuence. The vaance of councaton etablhe by tandad devaton, whle the concentaton ato of councaton peent the kuto of the tattc. The councaton poce odel a follow: N 1 1 Cap1 Kut 100 N 1 N 1 SD N...(1) SD 1 1 1 ( x _ x), 1 Kut 1 ( x _ x ) 4 SD Cap1: poject tate. If all SD o all Kut ae not calculated becaue of nuffcent data, Cap1 =0 SD : the tandad devaton of the -th topc[14]. Kut : the kuto of the -th topc[14]. N: the nube of councaton topc uch a Degnng topc and Tet topc. : the nube of councaton ntance about the -th topc. x _: the te when the -th councaton of the -th topc occu. It aue that developent te 100 (te when the x : Dcu on Fndng a oluton A bad poject tate Poble Execute the oluton Dcu on Fndng a oluton councaton occu developent te/100). the aveage of x_ Poject tate becoe bette a the value of Cap1 n the foula(1) nceae. Exaple of the odel ae hown n Fg.. In the Iage of a good tate gaph n Fg., the vaance of the councaton te all and the kuto of the councaton te lage. That, develope councate ntenvely about a ae topc n a hot peod. In the Iage of a bad tate gaph n Fg., the vaance of councaton lage and the 4 Execute the oluton Te Fg.1 The councaton wth vaou poject tate kuto of councaton all. The councaton about a ae topc dag on fo a long te. 3.4. The econd coplex way of analyzng The econd coplex way ha two pocedue; categozng councaton nto ae topc, and calculatng the catteng ato of the clute. (1) Categozng councaton nto ae topc The ft pocedue categozaton of councaton log. Vaou topc ae dcued at any te. Theefoe, the councaton log hould be categozed to ae topc. The ft pocedue cont of two tep. () Coputng laty between councaton-log n vecto pace odel. ()Cluteng the councaton log baed on laty of councaton. In the ft tep, to copute the laty between the councaton log, we ue vecto pace odel a follow [14]: M M ( M, M ) M M x Te of x Iage of a good tate w tf log N df, ( 1 N w tf log df x Te of x Iage of a bad tate Fg. Iage of the vaou tate n the councaton odel 1 ( w ) 1 ( w w ) ( w ) ) (M,M ): laty ato between M and M. M : the -th councaton log. M : the -th councaton log. : total nube of denon of ult-denon vecto. w : weght of the -th te t of M. tf : te fequency of te t of M. df : the nube of councaton log whch nclude te t. N: total nube of councaton log. 1..() In the vecto pace odel, at ft, te fequency of te t calculated. If the te t an ndex te n the councaton, the value of w wll be lage. Ung oe te t whch have a uffcent lage value of w, a ult-denon vecto etablhed about one councaton-log M. The laty (M,M ) between councaton log M and M ae calculated ung nne poduct between a vecto of M and a vecto of M. If the nne poduct all, the councaton M la to the councaton M.
w 1 d 1 TopcC Councaton ntance Centod of clute Slaty ato n a topc TopcA TopcB 1 d 1 BP(Bac Pont) Dtance between BP and councatonlog d 1 d d 3 d 4 d5 d 6 TopcA In the econd tep, the councaton log ae categozed ung the councaton laty whch calculated n the ft tep. The categozaton baed on Wad ethod[14] n cluteng algoth. A clute geneated o that the value of the followng D becoe nu, TopcB Fg.3 Categozaton n the econd pocedue ( n n ) ( M, M) ( nj n ) ( M j, M) n( M, M j) D n n...(3) M C, M j Cj, M C, M C. D : dtance between clute C and C. (M,M ): laty between M and M n foula(1). C : A new clute whch ae geneated by cobnng C and C j. C : the eaned clute afte geneatng clute C. n : the nube of councaton log n the -th clute. Councaton log ae categozed to oe clute. The clute ean a et of councaton log about a topc. Fg.3 how an exaple of the categozaton when the nube of ndex te of vecto pace odel two. Thee clute ae geneated; topca, topcb, and topcc. () Calculatng catteng ato of the clute Th pocedue cont of two tep a follow; () Mappng the councaton log nto te ee fo evey clute(topc). () Calculatng a poject tate baed on the catteng ato of the clute(topc). Ung the eult of the ft pocedue, a poject tate calculated. At ft, the categozed councaton log ae apped nto te ee. One of ot chaactetc attbute of councaton occuence te. An exaple of the appng hown n Fg.4. x-ax of Fg.4 councaton occuence te. The value of y-ax of Fg.4 ean the dtance fo the centod of the clute to each councaton. Fo exaple, the d1 n Fg.3 a dtance fo the centod of the clute TopcA to councaton log 1. A ta ak n Fg.3 ean the centod of the clute. In TopcA of Fg.4, the councaton log 1 apped. In Fg.4, the value of x-ax occuence te of 1. The value of y-ax the value of d1 n Fg.3. In hot, the y-ax n Fg.4 ean the catteng ato of one topc. If the value of the y-ax of Fg.4 lage, the councaton doe not concentate nto one topc. The othe topc ay be xed wth the topc n the councaton. In addton, the catteng ato on te ee n one topc clafed n Fg.4. Fo exaple, the clute TopcC coheve n Fg.3, that, the councaton n TopcC w 1 TopcC ee good n Fg.3, Howeve, n Fg.4, the councaton of TopcC catteng nto wde tecale. It ean that the dcuon about TopcC dagged on fo long te. Even tuaton whch can not be clea n Fg.3 can be clafed n the appng n Fg.4. In the econd tep() of the econd pocedue, the catteng ato of councaton log n Fg.4 calculated fo evey clute. The catteng ato deved fo the vaance of councaton log. A entoned above, we thnk the catteng ato elated to poject tate. The poject tate a follow; Cap T M D ( dtance( j, BP ) / all _ te) 1 j1, D...(4) T M Cap :poject tate. T :the nube of topc whch categozed n Fg.3. M :the nube of councaton log n the -th topc. j :the j-th councaton log n the -th topc. BP :Bac pont of the -th topc. BP (x)= aveage( (x)), BP (y)= aveage( (y)) all_te :developent te. The D n foula(4) ean the catteng ato of the -th topc. Theefoe, when aveage of D lage (the catteng ato lage), the poject tate bad. When aveage of D all (the catteng ato all), the poject good. Ung thee pocedue, the poject tate calculated fo the councaton log. 4. Tal expeent te Fg.4 Mappng and calculatng poject tate To evaluate the odel, fve tal expeent wee executed. Although th expeent cale all, th tal potant to poof the bac dea of the odel. The expeent condton ae (1)a goup cont of eveal ubject, ()ubject ake a ple poga, (3) expeent te eveal hou, (4)ubject councate ung only Yahoo-chat [16]. In addton, n the ft way, the lage value of poject tate ean a bette tate, the alle value of poject tate ean a woe tate. In contat, n the econd way, the lage value of poject tate ean a woe tate, the alle value ean a bette tate. To evaluate ou popoed odel, the value of poject tate ae copaed wth two poduct qualte; the nube of bug, nuffcent ato of poga pecfcaton(see Table1). We teted the poga afte
the expeent. We counted the nube of bug n the tet. Moeove, we copaed the poga wth the poga pecfcaton whch had povded to the ubject n ode to eaue the nuffcent ato. Goup1 Nu. Of Clute = 9 150 0 50 100 150 00 50 300 Goup Nu. Of Clute = 9 Goup1 TopcC TopcI TopcA TopcB TopcG TopcA TopcC 4.1 Reult of the expeent (1)Recodng all councaton Councaton log ae collected by Yahoo-chat tool. Eleent of the ecoded councaton ae Ue ID, occuence te, entence of the councaton. Total nube of councaton log n the fve goup hown at the ow naed Nu. of log n Table1. () The ple ft way of analyzng The ow naed Cap1 n Table1 ean value of poject tate n foula(1). Baed on foula(1), a lage value ean bette poject tate. We copaed the poduct qualty wth the value of Cap1. The coelaton coeffcent between the value of Cap1 and the nube of bug -0.88, the coelaton coeffcent between the value of Cap1 and the nuffcent ato of poga pecfcaton -0.87. The both coelaton coeffcent value ae uffcent hgh. Theefoe, the value of Cap1 of foula(1) n the ft way of the councaton odel ae elatvely tutable. (3) The econd coplex way of analyzng At ft, becaue the councaton log wtten n Japanee the log wee analyzed ung Mophologcal Analyze Chaen[17].The ndex te wee decded by TF*IDF(Te Fequency *Invet Docuent Fequency). Top foty ndex te wee elected fo hghe ankng of TF*IDF n all councaton log. In the cluteng n foula(3), the nube of clute an potant eence. The dendoga of the cluteng n all goup hown n Fg.5. x-ax of Fg.5 ean value of quae of dtance between pa vecto. y-ax ean councaton log. To copae the poject tate aong all goup, all thehold value of the cluteng ae et to 150. Although the othe value of the thehold ae avalable, we judged t a 150. The councaton log of Goup1 ae categozed nto 9 clute, nu. of clute of Goup 9, Goup3 6, Goup4 16 and Goup5 11. The eult of appng the councaton log nto te ee fo evey clute ae hown n Fg.6. The catteng ato baed on te ee of all clute ae clea. In Goup, we fnd one bg clute and x all clute, n Goup3, thee ae one bg clute and one all clute. Thee ae two bg clute n Goup4. Sze of Goup5 clute ae elatve ddle except one bg Table1 Reult of the expeent Goup1 Goup Goup3 Goup4 Goup5 Nu. of log 31 39 37 79 80 Cap1: 33.0 4.1 18.3 5.9 3.7 Cap: 5.96 4.79 16.73 5.75 7.31 Nu. of bug 3 5 10 7 Inuffcent aton 0% 13% 5% 61% 43% 0 100 00 300 400 500 600 700 Goup3 Nu. Of Clute = 6 0 50 100 150 00 50 300 350 400 Goup4 Nu. Of Clute = 16 0 50 100 150 00 50 300 350 400 Goup5 Nu. Of Clute =11 Fg.5 Dendoga of the cluteng Goup Goup3 Goup4 Goup5 TopcD TopcF TopcA TopcD TopcB TopcE TopcF TopcA clute. The featue of each goup ae clafed ung the cluteng eult. Baed on the eult of the cluteng, the poject tate of the goup ae calculated n foula(4). The value of Goup1, Goup, Goup3, Goup4, Goup5 ae 5.96, 4.79, 16.73, 5.75, 7.31, epectvely (See Table1). We copaed the value wth poduct qualte. In the nube of bug, the coeffcent coelaton 0.8, n the nuffcent ato of the poga pecfcaton alo 0.8. We found that the value of Cap of foula(4) coelate cloely wth the poduct qualte. 5. A poject anageent uppot tool TopcG TopcM TopcG TopcI TopcC TopcA Bae on the councaton odel ncludng the two way, a poject anageent uppot tool ha been developed. Ue can elect the way of analyzng n the councaton odel. If councaton ha been aleady categozed uch a a ee of bug-epot wth a nube, the ft ple way adaptable. If councaton not categozed lke e-al, touble eo, and vaou docuent, the econd way ncludng the autoatc categozaton equed n pte of uch coputatonal coplexty. Becaue the odel can pedct poject tate wthout docuent; degn docuent, poduct qualty and poge epot, the odel can be adaptable to vaou developent ethodologe. Howeve, thee a gnfcant poble fo pedctng the poject tate n the odel. Th how the councaton ecoded dung poject. Of coue, develope hould not conue te to ecod councaton becaue oftwae ha to be copleted TopcI TopcK TopcJ Fg.6 Scatteng ato of the councaton TopcD TopcE Te
*1 * Poject tate Councaton odel Analyze tool PotgeSQL(Repotoy) 5. Applcaton to open ouce poject Standadzed epcal SE data(n XML) Mal htoy Veon htoy Bug htoy *3 Open ouce counte CVS, Malan, GNATS(ShaeSouce) councaton Fg.7 Achtectue of Epcal Poject Monto wthn a hot peod n agle oftwae developent. The vaou councaton hould be accuulated autoatcally wthout develope effot. Theefoe, the new tool ebedded to Epcal Poject Monto[11] whch ha been developed by Epcal Softwae Engneeng Reeach Laboatoy and Naa Inttute of Scence and Technology, Japan. In th ecton, at ft, a new tool whch ebedded to Epcal Poject Montong ntoduced. Next, ung the tool, we ty to analyze councaton n open ouce counte. 5.1 A new tool baed on the odel The new tool a pat of Epcal Poject Monto. At ft, we ntoduce befly Epcal Poject Monto. The detal of Epcal Poject Monto decbed n [11]. The pupoe of Epcal Poject Monto an acheveent of epcal oftwae developent envonent. If a poject adopt Epcal Poject Monto, develope actvte ae ecoded autoatcally wthout develope effot. The ecodable actvte ae debuggng, pogang, councaton wth e-al, check-n and check-out of ouce code odule. Fg.7 how achtectue of Epcal Poject Monto. Develope execute uual actvte ung CVS, Malan, GNATS tool. Afte the actvte ae ecoded autoatcally to databae, the actvty data tanlated to XML data. Though electon of data by SQL eve, the analyze tool geneate vual gaph fo anage. We add oe functon to Epcal Poject Monto. At ft, a functon of calculaton baed on the councaton odel added (See *1 of Fg.7). The functon calculate value of poject tate baed on the councaton odel. The econd functon geneaton of gaph of poject tate on te ee(see * of Fg.7). Becaue the gaph data baed on CSV fle foat, the geneaton of the gaph eay n MS-Excel. In addton, the thd added pat a functon of autoatc data collecton fo open ouce counte(see *3 of Fg.7). Popely peakng, the thd functon not neceay. Howeve, becaue we would lke to evaluate the new tool n lage-cale poject, the functon of the autoatc collecton fo open ouce counte added to Epcal Poject Monto. Poject The councaton odel appled to lage-cale open ouce poject ung the new tool. The taget poject ae elected fo SouceFoge web te[18]. SouceFoge the wold laget open ouce oftwae developent webte. We choe even poject fo SouceFoge counte. The even poject uae how Table. The poject uae and the poject data ae collected on May of 004. Ga poject the longet and ot actve poject. The ot popula poject CDexOS becaue the nube of download ot. The nube of councaton log of each poject fo 1070 to 30744. The value of the cuent poject tate n the new tool ae hown at the colun naed Value of poject tate of Table. In the ft way, all poject tate ae calculated. Becaue the collected councaton log belonged to bug-epot wth nube, the ft way adaptable. In the econd way, VBA and CDexOS poject tate ae calculated. In the cuent poject tate n the ft way of the odel, ScuVM poject tate bet, CDexOS poject tate wot. Howeve, the nube of bug pe day of CDexOS poject vey all (0.19, See Table ). The CDexOS poject tate contadcton wth the nube of bug pe day. The poject tate of CDexOS dcued n the latte half of ecton 5.3. 5.3 Dcuon of eult of the applcaton We have oe doubt about the poject tate of Table. How doe anage ue the poject tate?, I the poject tate accuate? Theefoe, n th ecton, at ft, we explan how anage ue eult of analy n the odel. Next, accuacy of poject tate dcued. Th dcuon baed on the analy eult n the ft way. The eult of the analy n the ft way about the even poject ae hown Fg.8. One poject gaph cont of two gaph; poject tate onthly (the upde fgue n a poject) and the nube of new occuence bug onthly (the downde fgue n a poject). Poject tate vay at evey oent. The new tool povde a functon of llutatng the onthly vaaton of poject tate. In the upde gaph of a poject n Fg.8, x-ax ean te. y-ax ean value of poject tate. A the Table Suae and value of poject tate of Open Souce poject Lfepa n (day) Sze Nu. of bug Nu, of bug / day Nu. of download nu,. of co. Value of poject tate Cap Cap 1: : Ga 1654 5684715 6818 4.1 3177013 6771 44.4 - Azueu 339 0593463 663 1.96 5954559 777 50.1 - ScuVM 963 30845341 1538 1.59 65971 776 51.4 - phpmyadn 174 5015006 133 1.04 13076 30744 48.6 - egoupwae 408 60303414 807 1.98 173784 3358 45.1 - VBA 604 117904 109 0.18 948838 3481 48.0 17.1 CDexOS 1646 3040330 309 0.19 19063463 1070 16.3 11.1
Poject tate Nu. of bug Nu. of fxed bug Ga Poject Azueu Poject S ScuVM Poject 1653day Nu. of the non-fxed bug S1 P1 339day P 963day VualBoyAdvance Poject 1646day phpmyadn Poject egoupwae Poject CDexOS Poject 1646day 174day Nu. of non-fxed bug 408day Nu. of the nonfxed bug value of y-ax hghe, poject tate bette. Becaue of dcuon about accuacy of poject tate, gaph egadng bug ae alo hown n Fg.8. In the bug gaph, old lne ean total nube of new occuence bug, boken lne ean the nube of fxed bug. At ft, a way of ue of analy eult explaned. A hown n Fg.8, onthly vaaton of poject tate clafed. Fo exaple, Ga and ScuVM poject tate becoe woe lttle by lttle a a whole. Epecally, Ga poject tate fluctuate eatcally n the lat eveal onth. Manage can pedct that Ga poject fallng nto confuon wthn lat eveal onth. In addton, VualBoyAdvance(VBA) poject ha a pecfc featue. The poject tate fluctuate eatcally a a whole, at the ae te, the value of poject tate oete becoe zeo. Although VBA poject lfe pan long, oftwaeze vey all and the nube of develope wa only fou. Theefoe, the poject dd not execute contnuouly dung the lfe pan. When the value of the poject tate zeo, thee no councaton aong develope, that, we can expect the developent nealy upended. Thu, vaou tuaton of the poject can be hown n the gaph whch ae geneated autoatcally n the new tool. Even f anage have no anageent uppot docuent, the anage can ee vaaton of poject tate at evey oent. Moeove, baed on the onthly vaaton of poject tate, anage can pedct futue tate of the poject. Fo exaple, n phpmyadn poject, anage wll pedct that poject wll be fallng nto confuon n futue, becaue the poject tate down n the lat few onth. Next, we dcu accuacy of value of poject tate. Epecally, an egula cae of CDexOS poject dcued. To evaluate the accuacy of poject tate, Fg.8 Monthly vaaton of even poject tate n the ft way vaaton of poject tate ae copaed wth vaaton of the nube of bug n Fg.8. Of coue, poject tate ae nfluenced by vaou facto of poject. The nube of bug one of the facto. Howeve, vaaton of the nube of bug a gnfcant facto fo judgng poject tate. Theefoe, n th dcuon, we focu on the onthly vaaton of the nube of bug. The vaaton of Ga poject tate eflect the vaaton of the nube of bug(see Fg.8). On the ft half of Ga poject, the poject tate kept hgh elatvely, at the ae te the nube of new occuence of bug kept low. In contat, on the latte half of Ga poject, the poject tate becae woe. The nube of bug alo nceae(see boken ccle n Ga poject gaph n Fg.8). The poject tate fluctuate eatcally n the lat few onth. The vaaton of the poject tate n the lat few onth eflect well the confuon of the new occuence of bug and evng the bug. In Azueu poject, the gaph of poject tate ft well the gaph of the nube of non-fxed bug (the old lne wth tangle, See Azueu poject gaph of Fg.8). Fo exaple, S1 ak of Azueu of Fg.8 one of botto peak of the poject tate. P1 a top peak of the nube of non-fxed the eanng bug. The botto peak of S1 eflect well the top peak of P1. In the ae way, the top peak S ft the botto peak P. In hot, at the pont S1 (P1), although any bug have aleady occued, develope could not eve the bug. The poject tate becae oentaly low becaue of vaou eaon. Although anage can not know the detal of the eaon, the gaph of the poject tate help the anage know that oe touble ae occung n h/he poject. In the ae way, n phpmyadn poject, an nteetng phenoenon confed. Bug occued
contnuouly dung poject. Howeve, n the lat few onth, the nube of non-fxed bug nceae datcally(see the old lne wth tangle n phpmyadn poject of Fg.8). The poject tate alo deceae a the non-fxed bug nceae. The poject tate ft well the non-fxed bug tate. Next, we dcu the cae of CDexOS poject. Although CDexOS poject cuent tate lowet n Table, the nube of bug pe day vey all, oeove, the nube of download laget. In hot, becaue the nube of bug pe day of CDexOS low n pte of any ue, the poject tate ee ay be good. The lat gaph of Fg.8 how the value of poject tate of CDexOS, and the nube of bug, the nube of fxed bug, and the nube of non-fxed bug. The poject tate kept low dung whole lfe pan. Soete, the value of the poject tate becae zeo. Epecally, on the lat tage, the poject tate becoe fequently zeo. The downde gaph of CDexOS how vaaton of bug. Becaue total bug not o uch(309, See Table), the nube of bug and the nube of the fxed bug kept low dung the poject. Howeve, a pecfc featue of the bug data vaaton of non-fxed bug. On the latte half, the nonfxed bug wee accuulatng teadly becaue of evng few bug. The nube of councaton alo few (1070, See Table ). In hot, develope wee degadng occuence of new bug. Th tuaton of poject hould be judged a a bad tate. In Table, the value of poject tate of CDexOS allet n pte of the fewet bug pe day. On ft ght, the elaton between the poject tate and the nube of bug pe day ee contadcton. Howeve, when we focu on the vaaton of the nube of non-fxed bug, the value of poject tate ee to eflect oe accuately to eal-tate of the poject. Thu, even f anage have no anageent docuent, councaton log can ndcate autoatcally poject tate by the new tool. In addton, vaaton of poject tate on te ee n the tool ae vey ueful n anagng. Epecally, n agle oftwae developent, the tool valuable fo anage becaue develope hould coplete the poject n a hot peod wthout ceatng vaou docuent fo anageent. 6. Suay A new tool baed on the councaton odel ha been developed fo agle oftwae developent. A a eult of the tal expeent, the tate of fve goup have been detened n the odel. The new tool adapted to open ouce poject. The vaaton of even poject tate on te ee have been clafed. We confed that the vaaton of the poject tate ftted to the vaaton of occuence of new bug and the vaaton of non-fxed bug. Even f thee ae no bugepot n agle oftwae developent, anage wll be able to pedct poject tate n futue ung the new tool. In futue, ue-nteface of the new tool wll be efned. The new tool wth Epcal Poject Monto wll povded to eal poject n copoaton. Real-te analy of poject tate n the new tool wll be ted n eal poject. Acknowledgeent Th eeach wa patally uppoted by the Mnty of Educaton, Scence, Spot and Cultue, Gant-n-Ad fo Exploatoy Reeach, 15650005, 004. Refeence [1] D.G. Ancona, D.F. Caldwell, Bdgng the bounday: Extenal actvty and pefoance n oganzatonal tea, Adnte. Scence Quat., vol.37, no.4 (199) pp.634 666. 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