Television Advertising and Online Shopping

Transcription

1 Televon Avetng an Onlne Shoppng Jua Laukonyte, 1 Thale Texea, 2 Kenneth C. Wlu 3 Noveme 6, 2014 Fothcomng Maketng Scence Mea multtakng compete wth televon avetng fo conume attenton, ut t alo may facltate mmeate an meauale epone to ome avetement. Th pape exploe whethe an how televon avetng nfluence onlne hoppng. We contuct a mave ataet pannng $3.4 llon n penng y 20 an, meaue of an wete taffc an tanacton, an a content meaue fo 1,224 commecal. We ue a qua-expemental egn to etmate whethe an how TV avetng nfluence change n onlne hoppng wthn two-mnute pe/pot wnow of tme. We ue non-avetng competto onlne hoppng n a ffeence-n-ffeence appoach to meaue the ame effect n two-hou wnow aoun the tme of the a. The fnng ncate that televon avetng oe nfluence onlne hoppng an that avetng content play a key ole. Acton-focu content nceae ect wete taffc an ale. Infomaton-focu an emoton-focu a content actually euce wete taffc whle multaneouly nceang puchae, wth a net effect on ale that potve fo mot an. Thee eult mply that an eekng to attact multtake attenton an olla mut elect the avetng copy caefully. Keywo: Avetng, content analy, ffeence-n-ffeence, ntenet, mea multtakng, onlne puchae, qua-expemental egn, televon. 1 Dake Famly Atant Pofeo, Conell Unvety, Dyon School of Apple Economc an Management, 2 Atant Pofeo of Bune Amntaton, Hava Bune School, faculty/page/pofle.apx?faci= Atant Pofeo, Unvety of Calfona, San Dego, Ray School of Management, The autho thank comscoe, the Conell Unvety Dyon School Faculty Reeach Pogam, Dake Famly Enowment, an the Dvon of Reeach an Faculty Development of the Hava Bune School fo povng the fun to acque an ul the ataet n th eeach. Texea thank Elzaeth Watkn fo eeach atanthp. Wlu thank Duke Unvety fo employng hm ung pat of the tme th eeach wa conucte. We ae gateful to Donal Lchtenten, Ch Ove, Cathene Tucke, the eto, aea eto, two anonymou efeee an numeou emna auence fo the helpful uggeton. Autho contute equally.

2 1. Intoucton A compute have gown malle an moe poweful, multaneou televon an ntenet conumpton ha nceae aply (Ln, Venkataaman an Jap 2013). Numeou tue have epote lage nceae n mea multtakng; among them, Nelen (2010) clame that 34% of all ntenet uage tme occue multaneouly wth televon conumpton. Meanwhle, televon uage ha not fallen, wth Amecan tll watchng aout fve hou pe ay. In fact, tme pent wth televon an tme pent wth ntenet ae potvely coelate at the houehol level (Nelen 2011). One mght theefoe upect that televon can effectvely engage onlne hoppe. But o multtake engage wth televon a o oe multaneou mea conumpton teal conume attenton away fom commecal? Numeou uvey ugget that engagement pole. Among them, Nelen (2012) foun that 27% of US vewe epote eachng onlne fo pouct nfomaton afte watchng a TV avetement, an 22% looke up coupon o eal avete on TV. Ofcom (2013) epote that 16% of UK conume uveye ha eache fo pouct nfomaton o pote comment to a ocal netwok aout a televon avetement. The cuent pape am to contute to the lteatue on co-mea effect y anweng the followng queton: oe TV avetng tgge onlne hoppng? If o, how oe t wok? Recent eeach (Zgmon an Stpp 2010, 2011; Lew an Reley 2013) ha ue onlne each ata to how that each engne quee to Google an Yahoo epon almot ntantaneouly to televon commecal. Howeve, to ou knowlege, no pat eeach ha looke at the effect of televon avetng on ect wete taffc o onlne puchae ata. The cuent pape etalhe that onlne hoppng epon to televon avetng. Futhe, t nvetgate how 1

3 thoe effect epen on the chaactetc of the avetement, uch a t content an t mea placement. To ae thee queton, we mege two lage ataae of televon avetng an ntenet uage, an then ceate a th ataae of avetng content. The avetng ata epeent $3.4 llon pent y 20 an n 5 categoe, pannng 328,212 neton of 1,224 tnct avetement n The content of thee avetement wee coe to ae the extent to whch each one ncopoate acton-focu, nfomaton-focu, emoton-focu an magey-focu element. Fnally, the avetng ata wee upplemente wth compehenve, pavely tacke an-level wete taffc an ale ata fom a lage ntenet eeach fm. Avetng epone tue ae notoouly plague y enogenety. To etmate caual effect, we employ a qua-expemental eeach egn n conjuncton wth naow two-mnute event wnow (Chaney et al. 1991). Fo each a neton, onlne hoppng vaale ae meaue n the two mnute po to the avetement. Th pe peo eve a a aelne agant whch the a effect meaue. The ame vaale ae meaue agan n a twomnute pot wnow mmeately followng the a neton. Sytematc ffeence etween the pe- an pot-wnow ae attute to the a neton. The entfcaton tategy mla to the egeon contnuty appoach of Hatmann, Na an Naayan (2011). We alo meaue avetng effect on onlne hoppng n oae two-hou wnow of tme. Onlne hoppng on non-avetng competto wete ue to patal out unoeve categoy-tme nteacton a a potental confoun n a ffeence-n-ffeence egeon famewok. We fn that televon avetng oe nee nfluence onlne hoppng an that avetng content play a key ole. Acton-focu tactc nceae ect taffc to the wete an 2

4 puchae contonal on vtaton. Infomaton-focu an emoton-focu element euce taffc to the wete, ut they nceae the nume of vto that puchae, a poce that content wth nceang the effcency of conume each. Imagey-focu a content euce ect taffc to the wete, pehap ecaue t couage conume fom vetng the attenton away fom the televon. In um, the eult ugget that avete mut elect avetng content caefully accong to the ojectve. The pape pocee y evewng elate acaemc lteatue. It then ece the ata, empcal famewok, an the fnng. The concluon cue mplcaton an oppotunte fo futue wok. 2. Relevant Lteatue an Conceptual Famewok The peent atcle elate to eveal oe of eeach. In the lteatue on multmea avetng effectvene, Dagge an Danahe (2013) ult a ngle-ouce, cutome-level ataae of ten avetng mea an ale fo a lage etale. They foun that ngle-meum avetng elatcte wee hghet fo catalog, followe y ect mal, televon, emal an each, howng that ect-epone channel an televon wee oth effectve at nceang hot-tem ale. In a mla ven, eveal ecent tue have foun ynegtc effect on ale etween televon avetng an avetng n othe mea (Kolac an Vakata 2011, Nak an Pete 2009, Nak an Raman 2003, Ohnh an Manchana 2012). The um of the evence ugget that co-mea effect ext. Howeve, eeache ae jut tatng to unetan how the content of one meum mght nfluence conume ehavo n anothe. In an ealy effot, Goe an Mayzln (2004) howe that onlne cuon of new televon pogam helpe to pect thoe pogam atng, uggetng that meaue of onlne wo-of-mouth eflect oae ten n conume conveaton. Moe ecently, Gong et al. 3

5 (2014) egne a fel expement to meaue the caual mpact of tweet an etweet on atng of a televon pogam. They foun that pomotonal meage nceae vewehp, wth lage effect when they contan nfomatonal content an ae etweete y nfluental ue. The cuent pape alo npe y pevou wok on ect epone avetng. A emnal example n th aea Tell et al. (2000), whch etmate how conume telephone call epone to televon avetement fo a new mecal evce. Among numeou fnng, the eult howe that avetng gnfcantly nceae the nume of call ove a aelne, ut that t effect mnhe aply afte the ft one o two hou. Chany et al. (2001) extene th wok to cone the nfluence of pecfc avetng appeal on conume epone. Infomatve an emotonal appeal wee oth effectve n geneatng telephone call, ut nfomatonal content wa mot effectve hotly afte maket enty whle emoton-ae content ecame moe effectve wth tme TV Avetng an Onlne Behavo Televon a ae valuale fo geneatng awaene, knowlege an nteet n new pouct. A ect conequence that effectve televon a may lea vewe to eek out moe nfomaton aout thee pouct an an (Runon 2009). Recently, conume have tate gatheng a geat eal of pouct nfomaton onlne, an to ate, the mot tue onlne ehavo among TV vewe ha een eachng fo avete an an pouct ung each engne (e.g., Joo et al. 2014). Such onlne each ovouly mpotant to the an that ell pmaly onlne, ut t alo matte to offlne etale, a t allow nteete conume to lean moe aout an avete pouct po to ncung a cotly toe vt. Nealy all majo etale pove extenve aotment, pouct an pce nfomaton onlne, often n fomat that can help conume locate phycal pouct n local (offlne) etal envonment. 4

6 In the lteatue on avetng an onlne each, Lew an Reley (2013) foun that avetement ung the Supe Bowl ten to tgge onlne eache fo the avete an mmeately, wthn one mnute, wth malle effect petng up to an hou afte the a oacat tme. Howeve, the analy not nclue ect taffc to the an wete o onlne puchae, makng t mpole to tnguh nteet n the a entetanment value fom nteet n the avete pouct. They uggete that othe ue ata uch a te vtaton an puchae ehavo coul pove a moe holtc pepectve The cuent atcle follow up on th uggeton. Followng th oevaton, we pot that people have two man econ n epone to TV a expoue. Ft, they chooe whethe to vt the an wete o not. If the wete oman vey alent, vtaton woul mot lkely occu y a ect oute, uch a enteng the wete ae nto the owe o y clckng a ookmak. If the wete oman unknown o not alent, the conume mght ntea vt a each engne an then clck a efeng lnk to the an wete. Secon, upon aval at the wete, the conume eventually ece whethe to puchae o not. When thnkng though the pole nfluence of TV a on onlne hoppng, t neceay to cone the ole of the an wete. Boaly peakng, the an wete can eve two ole: t coul pmaly e a channel fo ellng (.e., povng pouct nfomaton an atonal peuave agument), o t coul pmaly e a channel fo oe fulfllment (.e., mnmzng the conume tanacton cot). An avetement that tmulate nteet wthout povng much nfomaton mght e moe effectve n conjuncton wth a an wete that a pmaly a channel fo ellng. A TV commecal that pove extenve ellng agument mght e moe effectve when ue wth a wete that maxmze oe fulfllment. 5

7 The nteplay etween avetng an tuton tactc ha een tue extenvely. Aneon an Renault (2006) fomally moele th tae-off: n equlum, a atonal conume wllngne to ncu a each cot (e.g. vt a wete) geate when the fm avete patal nfomaton aout pouct attute an pce than when t pove full nfomaton. Thee alo empcal evence uggetng that avetng tactc can nfluence the qualty a well a the quantty of conume attacte to the an tuton channel. Fo example, Haan et al. (2013) foun that text each avetement wth patcula content attute (e.g., tattcal evence, appeal to expet authoty) ought a hghe nume of vto, whle othe content attute yele fewe vto ut hghe conveon ate. Smlaly, Wu et al. (2005) foun that pomnently place magazne avetement wee moe effectve at geneatng te taffc than le pomnent placement, ut taffc fom the latte placement convete to ale at hghe ate. Thee eult aout the ole of the ntenet channel can help to hape expectaton aout ou econ eeach queton, that, how TV a content mght nfluence onlne hoppng. Smla to magazne an each engne a, TV commecal may attempt to peuae vewe pmaly to vt a an wete o they mght pmaly focu on makng the ale. Whle oth appoache mght eult n a puchae, t may e mpotant to tnguh the a alty to geneate taffc fom the a alty to geneate ale. In the next ecton we ece the ataet that allow u to etmate thee effect. 3. Data The empcal analy mege two lage ataet of televon avetng an ntenet ehavo n 2010 wth a newly contucte ataae of avetng content. We focu on fve pouct 6

8 categoe wth extenve onlne hoppng actvty: atng, pzza elvey, etale, telecommuncaton, an tavel We Taffc an Tanacton Data Onlne taffc an tanacton ata wee collecte fom comscoe Mea Metx. ComScoe ue popetay oftwae to pavely tack all we uage on a lage nume of ntenetconnecte ektop an laptop. It epot the we owng ata at the level of the ue/wete eon. Content wth tana nuty pactce, a new eon ecoe when a ue ft loa a page fom a patcula oman (e.g., Amazon.com) afte not loang any page fom that oman n the pat 30 mnute. 1 Fo each ue/wete eon, comscoe epote an anonymou ue ID, the oman name (an wete), the oman name of a efeal wete (f any), an the exact ate an tat tme. Futhe, comscoe entfe pa tanacton y analyzng the tuctue of confmatoy URL fo all ut a few an t tacke. 2 We focu on the followng thee meaue of onlne hoppng. Dect Taffc (): the nume of new eon on a an wete that wee ntate y ect vt (e.g., URL enty o clckng a ookmake lnk) wthn a patcula tme wnow. Seach Engne Refeal (): the nume of new ue eon on a an wete that wee ntate y each engne efeal wthn a patcula tme wnow. Sx each engne (AOL, Ak, Bng, Google, MSN an Yahoo) ae nclue, accountng fo 99% of U.S. eache. 3 Tanacton Count (): the nume of new eon on a an wete that ae ntate wthn a patcula tme wnow, whch ae then followe y a tanacton wthn the followng 24 hou. 1 Many ue top lookng at wepage wthout clong a owe ta; theefoe, ome aumpton eque aout the maxmum tme a ue mght have contnue nteactng wth the te. 30 mnute the tana aumpton. 2 Po eeach n maketng ha analyze comscoe ata fom (e.g., Moe an Fae 2004, Pak an Fae 2004, Montgomey, L, Snvaan, an Lechty 2004, Danahe 2007, Johnon et al. 2004). 3 The eon-level comscoe ata o not ncate the pece tme when the ue ntate the each, ut we o oeve the exact tme that any a each engne efeal le to a new eon on the an wete. 7

9 Puchae econ may take much longe than te vt, a they may e elaye y tme pent eang evew, eeachng competng opton o conultng othe meme of the houehol. Thu, a one-ay wnow employe, mla to Blake et al. (2014). Fgue 1 ummaze the onlne hoppng ata y plottng taffc an tanacton wthn each pouct categoy y hou of the ay. Ban wete taffc an tanacton e thoughout the ay efoe peakng n the ealy evenng aoun 7 P.M. Categoe ffe n the hape of the evenng peak, wth the hapet e oeve n the Pzza categoy. [Fgue 1 aout hee] The ntenet uage ataae ha two popete that ae mpotant fo ntepetng the eult elow. Ft, the ata o not tack nvual aco compute (an ue face y many onlne fm). Secon, at the tme the ata wee collecte, comscoe only meaue ntenet uage on ektop an laptop; t ha not yet evelope tackng technology fo matphone o talet compute. 4 Theefoe, one mght upect that the effect etmate n th pape ae a conevatve etmate of the cuent mpotance of onlne epone to televon a Televon Avetng Data Televon avetng ata wee ecoe y Kanta Mea. Kanta monto all natonal oacat netwok, cale netwok, an yncate pogam n the U.S. It entfe natonal commecal ung coe emee n netwok pogammng team. The unt of oevaton the neton efne a a ngle ang of a patcula avetement on a patcula televon channel at a patcula ate an tme. Fo each neton n 2010, the ataae epot the commecal uaton, the an an pouct avete (ome an avete many pouct), the ate an tat tme (n hou, mnute, an econ 4 In 2010, matphone penetaton wa 22% an the Pa wa newly eleae; oth evce wee geneally le utale fo onlne hoppng than ektop an laptop (Nelen 2010). By 2014, matphone an talet ha ecome moe capale an the epectve penetaton ate ha en to 65% an 29% (Nelen 2014). 8

10 E.S.T.), an an etmate cot of the neton. Cot etmate wee epote to Kanta y the netwok afte a ae an ae commonly ue y lage avete to plan upcomng mea uy. The ata alo nclue mea chaactetc: the popety (a natonal televon netwok o pogam yncaton company), pogam name, pogam gene, the nume of the commecal eak wthn the pogam, an the nume of the lot wthn the commecal eak. The ntal ataet nclue moe than 750,000 neton of 4,153 unque avetng ceatve n natonal netwok. We oppe the ottom 5% of ceatve y total expentue, an all neton whoe etmate cot to oacat wa le than $1,000, a thee coepone to channel an aypat wth vey mall auence. Thee two efnement euce the nume of neton y aout half ut elmnate jut 6% of total oeve a penng. 5 The fnal etmaton ample cont of 328,212 neton of 1,224 unque avetement accountng fo $3.4 llon of TV a penng y 20 an. Lke the onlne hoppng actvty n Fgue 1, Fgue 2 how that mot of thee an avetng neton occue afte 12 P.M. Ineton an avetng expentue oe tealy thoughout the ay efoe peakng ung the evenng hou of 8-10 P.M. [Fgue 2 aout hee] 3.3. Moel-Fee Evence an Decptve Stattc We meaue the an-pecfc onlne hoppng vaale twce fo each wnow length fo each a neton. The aelne ate of onlne hoppng vaale ae meaue n a pe wnow of tme jut po to the neton of the avetement. Thee ame vaale ae meaue agan n a pot wnow of tme jut afte the a tat. 5 The ataae not epot pogam name, gene, eak nume o lot nume fo 36,805 (aout 10%) of the a neton cae y a patcula goup of pogam yncaton compane. The eult of pmay nteet (tale 6 an 7) ae eentally nvaant to nclung o exclung thee neton, o we ece to op them. 9

11 Seveal exploatoy analye wee conucte ung uet of the ata. In one, we plotte aveage an wete vt pe olla pent on vaou a ceatve. Fgue 3 how Amazon.com taffc pe olla fo two tnct a: (a) avalale now an () Knle. The ata howe a lage pke n the mnute followng the tat of the a an a mall, enung nceae theeafte. The magntue of thee lft patten eeme to epen on the a content, hghlghtng the mpotance of a moe thoough nvetgaton nto how a content nfluence onlne hoppng. The econ exploatoy exece nvolve plottng owng actvty wthn hote tme wnow fo a we electon of an. Fgue 4 llutate th fo Taget an JC Penney. Mot of the mmeate nceae n owng actvty wa oeve wthn two mnute afte the a, wth ome effect petng up to two hou afte the a. A oaly mla patten appeae fo all of the an analyze n th manne. Th how we choe the two patcula wnow length of two mnute an two hou. 6 [Fgue 3 an 4 aout hee] Tale 1 pove avetng an onlne hoppng ata fo the etmaton ample. The aveage an ue 61 commecal to avete 7 tnct pouct, an pent $172 mllon to a thoe commecal 16,411 tme. Conume ntate 49,402 ect eon on the aveage an wete, wth an atonal 23,061 new eon comng fom each engne efeal. 6.3% of the compute that wee oeve to ntate a eon complete a pa tanacton o ucpton wthn 24 hou, wth ate that vae fom le than 1% n Datng to 43% n Pzza Televon Avetng Content Data 6 Although an eal appoach woul e to gauge the entvty of the analy to the length of the wnow choen, th wa juge to e nfeale ue to computatonal cot. To ou knowlege, th ata mege ha not pevouly een offee y any commecal eeach fm. Ou mege outne eque 3*10 13 computatonal quee an aout 45 ay to un fo each hoppng vaale n each wnow length. 10

12 Wn an Shap (2009) a that the mot amatc nfluence on hot-tem effect ceatve copy. Theefoe, we coe avetement content. Po lteatue helpe to entfy an efne fou menon of a content y whch each TV commecal n ou ataet coul e aee. Ft, we meaue the extent to whch each a acton-focue an contan ect-epone element. Thee a pove () a olctaton of pecfc acton(), () uppotng nfomaton to encouage a econ, an () a epone evce o mechanm to facltate acton (Danahe an Geen 1997, Buh an Buh 1990). Secon, we meaue the extent to whch each a nfomaton-focue. Thee a peuae y nfomng an ely on evence aout the pouct, the pce an an nfomaton o that vewe can evaluate the offeng (Tell 2004). Th, we meaue the extent to whch each a emotonfocue y t ue of emotonally ch content uch a ceatve toe, wamth an humo n oe to attact attenton an engage vewe (Texea et al. 2012). Fouth, we meaue the extent to whch an a magey-focue. Thee a ue multple peceptual o enoy nput (often, though not excluvely, vual) ntene to evoke vual magey poceng n conume (MacInn an Pce 1987, Pelte et al. 1992). Thee fou chaactetc ae not mutually excluve; one avetement can make ue of multple element, though tme contant couage extenve ue of all fou attute. Ovevew. We electe 21 uvey tem eflectng thee fou attute that ha een collecte n pevou content analye. 7 The cong effot aee all 1,224 unque a ceatve. 8 The poce nvolve thee tep: ft, tane eeach atant collecte the ata; econ, a epaate goup of coe aee a uample of avetement to gauge elalty; th, a 7 Ognal uvey tem an ntecoe elalty coe ae pove n the Onlne Appenx. 8 Mot po acaemc effot to analyze avetng content have manually coe a few ozen a ceatve. Unuually lage excepton ae Bujzen an Valkenug (2004), who entfe the peence of 41 type of humo n 316 avetement, an Aneon et al. (2013) an Laukonyte (2013), who coe the pouct attute communcate y 1,571 OTC pan mecaton a. 11

13 uvey of 14 acaemc who conuct ehavoal eeach wa conucte to evaluate the clafcaton of uvey tem to avetement attute. The etal of each tep follow. Featue cong. Ten eeach atant wee tane to coe the avetement. A uget contant eque that each commecal e agne to only one coe. Coe wee ntucte to watch each a at leat twce an then anwe the 21-tem quetonnae fo that a. Dung cong, they coul watch, paue an ewn the a a many tme a neee. If they emane unue aout how to coe a patcula a, they wee ntucte to nfom a eeach aocate. Ove 99% of a wee coe completely the ft tme. Coe woke nepenently, wee pa houly, an ntucte not to wok moe than two hou at a tme to avo eponent fatgue. Relalty. A epaate goup of x atant wa he to coe a anom ample of 150 a fo eght of the an (12% of the ognal 1,224) followng the ame poceue. We uequently oppe two uvey tem ( I the pouct emontate n the a? an I the focu of the a moe on the pouct o on the an? ) ue to low nte-coe elalty. The pecentage match among the emanng 19 uvey tem wa 78%. We juge th fgue to e acceptale gven the ujectve natue of ome contuct an coe nalty to eolve cepance though cuon. Clafcaton valaton an ecptve tattc. To evaluate the fou a content chaactetc, we uveye 14 acaemc expet n conume ehavo. We ake whethe each uvey tem wa applcale, omewhat applcale o not applcale to each of the fou avetement chaactetc. One of the tem ( Woul you juge th to e an expenve o cheap a to make? ) ha a hgh ate of ageement wth the ognal clafcaton, at 50%, an wa theefoe oppe fom the tuy. Evey othe tem-pecfc aveage ncate that at leat 12 of the 14 juge agee that the expecte clafcaton wee applcale, wth an aveage 12

14 ageement of 97%. Followng th poceue, 18 uvey tem wee ue to ceate ummay nce fo each avetement fo each of the fou content attute. The uvey tem ue n each avetement content attute ae lte n Tale 2. Tale 3 epot the coelate unquene meaue (Campell an Fke 1959) evaluatng contuct valty of the eultng clafcaton. Mot of the pawe coelaton etween the content attute (epote on the left e of Tale 3) ae mall, ncatng cmnant valty. The lone excepton the coelaton etween acton-focu an nfomaton-focu, whch ncate ome co-occuence of thee attute wthn the ame avetement. Th to e expecte, a ect epone avetement often contan pouct nfomaton (Buh an Buh 1990). The aveage facto loang (path coeffcent) fo each content categoy ae epote on the ght e of Tale 3 an ncate a eaonale egee of convegent valty. [Tale 2, 3 an 4 aout hee] Tale 4 how how an ffee n the ue of avetng content. 9 Fo example, Papa John ue moe acton-focu a content than any othe an, whle Vctoa Secet a ate the lowet on th attute. Although thee ae ffeence n mean aco an, the tana evaton aco neton wthn each an ae utantal, an ometme compaale to the tana evaton aco the ente ample. In ummay, evey an ue evey type of a content n at leat ome of t avetement. 4. Moel an Etmaton. We pocee n thee tep. Ft, we pecfy a aelne moel that ece tattcal elatonhp among the thee onlne hoppng vaale, ung an fxe effect an a ch et of categoy-tme nteacton a contol vaale. Th aelne moel not ntene to meaue 9 We tanaze the avetng content vaale n the egeon to account fo ffeng ange. 13

15 any caual effect, t only etmate a a flexle epeentaton of the onlne hoppng ata. Secon, we ntouce the teatment effect of an avetng neton nto th aelne pecfcaton. Th, we cu enogenety an ece two tatege to etmate caual effect of televon avetng on onlne hoppng Baelne Moel Specfcaton We moel the nteelatonhp among the thee onlne hoppng vaale each engne efeal (), ect taffc () an tanacton count () ung thee lnea equaton. The moel elate the pot-neton ealzaton of onlne hoppng vaale to the pe-neton value an a ch et of an- an categoy-tme fxe effect. In ecng the moel, nexe avetement neton. Each neton avete a patcula pouct (enote p ) ol y a pecfc an (laele ) n a pouct categoy ( c ). t efe to the pecfc ate an tme of neton. We efe to the wnow of tme (two mnute o two hou) mmeately peceng an followng the neton tme t a the pewnow an pot-wnow. The aelne moel pecfe a: pot = α α α γ β ω u (1) pe pe pe X c t ct pot = α α α γ β ω u (2) pe pe pe X c t ct pot = α X ω u (3) pot pot pe α α γ ct β ct Pot-wnow taffc vaale pot an ae pecfe a functon of all thee hoppng pot vaale n the pe-wnow (, pe pe, an pe ) to allow fo geneal coelaton among the thee onlne hoppng vaale. The pot-wnow tanacton vaale pot epen on pot- wnow taffc vaale pot an fo contency wth t efnton n the pevou pot 14

16 ecton. The nne α paamete govenng coelaton among onlne hoppng vaale ae an-pecfc, n oe to flexly epeent heteogeneou elatonhp aco an. Each equaton n the aelne moel of onlne hoppng ata ncopoate two et of fxe effect. The γ paamete ae an ntecept, allowng fo an-pecfc vaaton n pe/pot ffeence n each of the onlne hoppng vaale. The vecto X c t contan a ch et of nteacton etween pouct categoy an tme effect. Each pouct categoy nteacte wth 139 tme fxe effect, epeentng the week of the yea (51 fxe effect); ay of the week (6); hou of the ay (23); an mnute of the hou (59). The aelne moel n Equaton (1)-(3) contan 2,085 an an categoy-tme fxe effect (139 tme effect * 5 pouct categoe * 3 hoppng vaale). 10 Equaton (1)-(3) alo nclue two et of eual. ω, ω, an t ω epeent t c t c c unoeve ve of onlne hoppng that vay y pouct categoy an tme (afte accountng fo the categoy-tme fxe effect). Fo example, thee mght epeent unmoele nteacton among the categoy-tme fxe effect whch may e known y the avete ut not oeve y the econometcan. 11 The econ et of eual, u, u an u, ae ntene to epeent any unoeve ve of onlne hoppng left unaccounte fo y the oeve an unoeve categoy-tme eman hfte. It aume that an o not have knowlege of thee tem at the tme they uy avetement Teatment Effect Specfcaton 10 A moe pamonou epeentaton woul e to eplace ome of the tme contol wth a lowe-oe polynomal. We ue th moe flexle pecfcaton ecaue the ataet ze affo uffcent egee of feeom. 11 An example of uch an nteacton mght e Monay/6pm/Pzza. The fxe effect vecto X nclue a Monay/Pzza effect an a 6pm/Pzza effect, ut no th-oe nteacton. 15

17 Y epeent a vecto of the oeve chaactetc of avetng neton. It effect ente the aelne moel lnealy an vae aco onlne hoppng vaale: pot Yφ X u (4) pe pe pe = α α α γ ct β ω ct pot Yφ X u (5) pe pe pe = α α α γ ct β ω ct pot pot pot pe = Y α α α γ X ct β ω ct φ u (6) We efe to the tem Yφ, Yφ, an Yφ a the teatment effect of TV avetng on each engne efeal (), ect taffc () an tanacton count (). The vecto of avetng neton chaactetc Y nclue the fou tanaze avetng content vaale ece n ecton 3.4, plu an atonal 265 fxe effect fo avetng neton chaactetc. Thee nclue p, the avete pouct (136 fxe effect); the popety (natonal netwok o yncaton company) nto whoe pogammng team the a wa nete (96); the gene of the pogam playng n that team when the a wa nete (15); the nume of the commecal eak wthn the pogam (9); an the nume of the lot wthn the commecal eak (9). In aton to thee man effect, the neton chaactetc vecto Y alo contan the followng contol vaale: the etmate expentue on the avetement, nteacte wth a an fxe effect; the um of all po oeve expentue on the avetng ceatve to contol fo pole a weaout; the total expentue y the an on othe neton ung neton pe-wnow, an the total expentue y the an ung the neton potwnow; an wthn-categoy competto total a expentue ung neton ung each of the two wnow. Thee fnal fou vaale ae nclue to contol fo cluteng, that, 16

18 occuence of neghong neton. 12 Invetgaton howe that the eult of pmay nteet (n Tale 6 an 7) ae qualtatvely unaffecte y the ncluon o excluon of thee contol Enogenety Concen In oe to otan unae etmate of the caual effect of avetng neton, t mut e the cae that the unoeve categoy/tme nteacton ( ω, ω an ω c t c t c t ) ae othogonal to the teatment effect ( Yφ, Yφ an Yφ ). The polty that they may e coelate ae ecaue an may plan avetng neton wth patal knowlege of the unoeve categoy/tme nteacton. 13 Fotunately, when we ue onlne hoppng ata meaue n two-mnute wnow of tme, typcal avetng une pactce enue that th not a concen. The eaon that, when a an uy a televon commecal, t pay fo a netwok/quate-hou comnaton, fo example, ESPN etween 8:45:00-8:59:59 P.M. on Januay 1, The avete oe not know the pecfc tme wthn the quate-hou that the a wll a, fo thee eaon. Ft, the actual tmng of the commecal eak wthn that quate hou not pecfe n the contact etween the netwok an the avete, an typcally ha not een etemne at the tme the pot ol. Secon, unle the avete ha taken the unuual tep of puchang a pecfc lot wthn the eak, t oe not know whch lot t avetement wll occupy. 14 Th, aout 80% of avetng nventoy ol ung the May upfont maket, 3-15 month po to the a a 12 To llutate the cluteng concen, uppoe AT&T net an avetement on CBS at 8:41:00 P.M. an anothe a on ESPN at 8:42:00 P.M. In th cae, the POST wnow of the CBS a may nclue ome taffc caue y the ESPN a an oth the PRE an POST wnow of the ESPN a may nclue ome taffc caue y the CBS a. 13 Fo example, uppoe that thee ext an mpotant Monay/6 P.M./Pzza nteacton. If pzza an wee awae of th, then they mght ten to uy moe a on Monay at 6 P.M. than at othe weekay/hou comnaton. It then woul e ffcult to tnguh the Monay/6 P.M./Pzza nteacton fom the teatment effect of pzza a. 14 Wlu et al. (2013) cue an ocument the agnment of televon avetement to lot. 17

19 ate. Avete an netwok often o not even know what pogam wll cay the a, much le the pecfc tme at whch the a wll a. Fo all thee eaon, t tan celty to ague that an avete coul tme a pecfc a neton to poft fom change n onlne hoppng ehavo etween a two-mnute pewnow an an mmeately uequent two-mnute pot-wnow. Conequently, any ytematc ffeence n onlne hoppng vaale etween the two-mnute pe- an pot- wnow houl e ectly attutale to the teatment effect. Theefoe, the qua-ffeence n Equaton (4)-(6) can e etmate ectly ung the onlne hoppng vaale meaue n two-mnute nteval, allowng fo heteokeatcty-out tana eo. Howeve, when analyzng onlne hoppng ata meaue n two-hou wnow of tme, one mght upect that avete mght uy a lot ae on patal knowlege of unoeve categoy-tme nteacton ω, ω an ω c t c t c t. In th cae, we ue a ffeence-n-ffeence appoach to contol fo the unoeve categoy-tme nteacton. The ea to ue onlne hoppng ata fo an that () ae n the ame pouct categoy a an, an () not avete ung the ample peo, to contol fo unoeve categoy-tme nteacton coeponng to each neton n the ample. Fgue 5 llutate the eeach egn. We choe the contol an y electng the laget an wthn each pouct categoy that not avete on televon. 15 That eulte n the followng et of contol an fo each pouct categoy: (1) Datng: OKCup.com, Plentyoffh.com; (2) Retale: Aecome, Roaman, Amecan Eagle, Chlen Place; (3) Telecom: Lettalk, Ccket, Wefly; (4) Tavel: 15 Although we eleve thee an ae the et contol avalale to account fo unoeve categoy/tme nteacton n onlne hoppng, t pole that the page vt an puchae of the contol an coul e nfluence y the avetng n the ample (Lew an Nguyen 2014; Sahn 2014). Fo example, an avetement fo Match.com mght caue a conume to thnk aout onlne atng an then vt OKCup wete (one of the contol an fo Match.com). To the extent that avetng caue categoy expanon, the ue of non-avetng competto a contol an may uneetmate the effect of an TV a on the own onlne hoppng vaale y ang the aelne level of pot -wnow taffc an tanacton. 18

20 Atan, ChoceHotel, Cheaptcket, JetBlue. We not fn any non-avetng an that offee evce compaale to pzza elvey, o the ffeence-n-ffeence egeon exclue avetng neton fo pzza. Fgue 6 how patten n the onlne hoppng ata fo the contol an n each pouct categoy. The peak ae emakaly mla to patten epcte fo the avetng an n Fgue 1. Th oevaton confme y Tale 5, whch how houly coelaton etween teatment an contol an angng fom 0.76 to [Fgue 5 an 6 an Tale 5 aout hee] To pecfy the ffeence-n-ffeence etmato, we enote the each engne efeal, ect taffc, an tanacton count fo the et of contol an n categoy c a z, z an z, epectvely. We pecfy a aelne tattcal moel fo the contol an onlne hoppng vaale that analogou to the aelne moel of avetng an ata n Equaton (1)-(3): z pot = z κ z z X ω v (7) pe pe pe z c κ c κ c ηc ct κ ct z pot = z κ κ κ η κ ω v (8) pe pe pe z c z c z c c X c t ct z pot = z κ κ κ η κ ω v (9) pot pot pe z c z c z c c X c t ct z Hee, the κ paamete goven the coelaton among onlne hoppng vaale n a manne mla to the α paamete n Equaton (1)-(3); the ame oeve an unoeve categoy- tme tem ( X, ω, ω an ω u, u an c t c t c t c t ) ente; an the eo tem v, v an v ae analogou to u. The only mpotant ffeence etween the an-pecfc aelne moel n Equaton (1)-(3) an the contol-an moel n Equaton (7)-(9) that the κ an η paamete of the latte moel ae necealy categoy-pecfc, athe than an-pecfc. Th 19

21 20 ecaue thee one et of contol an fo each categoy n the ample, athe than one contol an fo each an n the ample. Fnally, we take ffeence etween equaton (4) an (7), (5) an (8), an (6) an (9) to eve ou ffeence-n-ffeence etmato: t c c pe pe c pe pe c pe pe pot pot w X z z z Y z = µ δ κ α κ α κ α φ (10) t c c pe pe c pe pe c pe pe pot pot w X z z z Y z = µ δ κ α κ α κ α φ (11) t c c pe pe c pot pot c pot pot pot pot w X z z z Y z = µ δ κ α κ α κ α φ (12) whee = c c c η γ η γ η γ δ δ δ, = z z z κ β κ β κ β µ µ µ an = v u v u v u w w w. Equaton (10)-(12) ae etmate ectly ung the onlne hoppng vaale meaue n two-hou nteval, allowng fo heteokeatcty-out tana eo. The next ecton peent the eult. 5. Fnng The ft queton to cone whethe televon avetng nfluence onlne hoppng. We anwe th y lookng at moel ft wth an wthout teatment effect, an wth an wthout aelne pecfcaton. 16 Tale 6 epot the popoton of the vaaton explane n the thee onlne hoppng vaale y eveal ffeent moel. [Tale 6 aout hee] 16 The moel wa alo ujecte to a anom 80% hol-out valaton exece to check fo ovefttng. The R- quae an RMSE tattc wee compaale etween the full ample, a moel etmate wth a anom 80% uample, an the pecton fom that latte moel when compae to the emanng 20% valaton uample.

22 Seveal concluon emege. Ft, f we nclue only ata aout the avetng neton teatment effect (exclung all aelne vaale), the moel can explan 48.7% an 62.2% of the vaaton n each engne efeal an ect taffc, epectvely, n the two-hou wnow ata, an 3.7% an 13.8% of the vaaton n the two-mnute wnow ata. 17 Secon, the aelne moel (exclung teatment effect vaale) explan moe of the vaaton n the epenent vaale than the teatment effect alone. When we a the teatment effect to the aelne vaale, the moel how a tattcally gnfcant nceae n t alty to explan all thee epenent vaale n oth the two-mnute an two-hou ataet, theey anweng the ft queton (whethe TV avetng nfluence onlne hoppng) n the affmatve. Fnally, we etmate a moel wth categoy-pecfc teatment effect. Th wa one y nteactng the contnuou avetng content vaale n the teatment effect wth categoy fxe effect. Howeve, the R-quae tattc howe no meanngful nceae when we nclue the categoy-pecfc teatment effect. Evaluatng all moel, the Akake Infomaton Cteon (AIC) an Bayean Infomaton Cteon (BIC) ae oth mnmze y the moel wth the common teatment effect, uggetng that the che categoy-pecfc paametezaton oe not jutfy the nceae n moel complexty. Theefoe, we pocee y peentng an ntepetng the fnng fom the common teatment effect moel, tatng wth avetng content Effect of Televon Avetng Content on Onlne Shoppng The econ eeach queton how pecfcally televon avetng nfluence onlne hoppng. Tale 7 peent the effect of TV avetng content on ect taffc, each engne efeal, an tanacton. Thee ae twelve uch effect fou tanaze avetng content vaale tme thee onlne hoppng vaale wthn each of the two wnow length moel. 17 It notewothy that, n all cae, the moel how a geate alty to explan ect taffc than each engne efeal, pehap ecaue of the tme eque to conuct an ntenet each an evaluate the eult. 21

23 In the two-hou egeon, 9 of the 12 paamete ae tattcally gnfcant at the 95% confence level, whle 6 of the 12 ae gnfcant n the two-mnute egeon. Fou effect coepon n gn an gnfcance level etween the two egeon, an thee ae no cae of contactoy fnng etween the two-mnute an two-hou wnow egeon. We pocee y cung the two-hou eult, a ummaze n Fgue 7, a the lghtly longe tme wnow eem lke the moe mpotant meaue of conume hoppng actvty. Thee ae thee way n whch each avetng content attute can affect onlne ale. Ft, the attute coul pak nteet an nceae ect taffc to the wete (), theey nectly nceang tanacton y nceang vto. Secon, the content element coul nceae each engne efeal (), agan nceang tanacton nectly y nceang vto. Th, TV a content coul nceae conveon ate, eultng n moe tanacton () contonal on wete vtaton y ethe oute. Any of thee effect may e potve, negatve o ntnguhale fom zeo. Fgue 7 ummaze the two-hou eult, howng each of thee thee effect fo each avetng content attute, an epot the fnng aout an-pecfc total effect of avetng content on tanacton. 18 We cu each content attute n tun. [Tale 7 an Fgue 7 aout hee] Acton-focu. A that make heavy ue of ect-epone tactc ae foun to have thee effect. Ft, they euce the nume of new eon at the an wete ntate y each engne efeal. Secon, they nceae the nume of vto comng though ect mean. The potve effect on ect vtaton aout x tme lage than the eceae n each engne efeal, uggetng that acton-focu a content ng new vto to the te an multaneouly 18 The total effect of content attute x on an tanacton 22 x TotalEffect x x x = φ α φ α φ, whee φ an φ ae the effect of content attute x on, an, epectvely. Stana eo ae calculate y x x oottappng fom the aymptotc tuton of the paamete etmate. φ, x

24 encouage ect mean of vtaton athe than equng a each po to vtaton. Th eult mla to Joo et al. (2014) an lkely a potve conequence fo the an, a t ugget that acton-focu a content make the an wete moe alent to conume, helpng them to ypa each engne an theey eucng the toll the an ha to pay fo each engne efeal taffc. Th, acton-focu content nceae the nume of eon wth pa tanacton contonal on vtaton. Thee effect comne to ceate a potve, gnfcant total effect of acton-focu avetng on puchae fo all 17 an. Infomaton-focu an Emoton-focu. Infomaton- an emoton-focu content n a ae aocate wth two eemngly contactoy effect: they multaneouly euce taffc to the wete whle nceang the nume of puchae among thoe who o vt. The mot lkely explanaton fo thee phenomena that th type of avetng content effectve at eolvng conume uncetanty aout whethe the avete pouct ft the nee. In uch a cae, lowft conume woul foego vtng the an wete, whle hgh-ft conume woul e moe lkely to vt an uy, mla to the effect pecte y Aneon an Renault (2006) an foun y Wu et al. (2005) an Haan et al. (2013). The potve effect on puchae outwegh the negatve effect on taffc fo mot an, leang to potve total effect of nfomatonfocu an emoton-focu content on ale that ae tattcally gnfcant fo mot an. Imagey-focu. Imagey content aocate wth euce ect vtaton to the wete n the two-hou ataet. We upect the eaon fo th the effect of magey on multtakng; ntene mage ae often ue n televon avetement to aet the vewe attenton an to couage them fom engagng wth the commecal. Although magey-focu a content ha no gnfcant mpact on tanacton contonal on vtaton, t negatve mpact on ect taffc pouce negatve, gnfcant total effect on ale fo 10 of the 17 an n the ample. 23

25 5.2 Atonal Teatment Effect Paamete Etmate Tale 8 peent atonal covaate n the teatment effect of an avetng neton. Avetng effect vay y pogam gene; elatve to the exclue gene (Anmaton), the laget nceae n puchae wa oeve fo neton ung lve pot. Howeve, ou alty to ntepet th eult lmte. Moe eeach wll e neee to etemne whethe the effect on puchae come fom the pogam gene telf, whch may affect vewe engagement wth the avetement, o whethe they ae pecfc to the vewe attacte y thoe pogam. The eak nume an lot nume eult ae moe clealy ntepetale. The eult ncate that a eak that occu late n the pogam geneate fewe new wete eon than the ft eak n the pogam, wth lttle o no appaent mpact on puchae. In the two-hou egeon, thee no appaent effect of the a lot wthn the eak on taffc o tanacton. Howeve, n the two-mnute egeon paamete etmate (whch ae omtte fo evty), thee a tong negatve effect of poton wthn the eak on ect taffc. The ata how nteetng fnng fo avetement that have een ae epeately. Moe pat penng on an avetement aocate wth a euce alty to geneate new ect taffc, ut a hghe nume of ale among thoe who o vt. Th algn wth the ual pupoe of TV a fo multtake: geneate cuoty among thoe who have not een the avetement efoe, an emn famla conume to puchae when they ae n the maket fo the avete pouct. [Tale 8-10 aout hee] Tale 9 how how televon popete vae n the effect on ntenet hoppng. Fo example, a cae on CNBC ae aocate wth eucton n all thee hoppng vaale, whle thoe appeang on Ault Swm o E! how a lage nceae n new an wete taffc. 24

26 Smla to the pogam gene eult, t eman to e etemne whethe thee effect ae caue y the netwok pe e o y the type of vewe each netwok attact. Mult-pouct an often have multple tnct ceatve fo each pouct offee. In thoe cae, the pouct avete ometme ha a utantal effect on taffc an ale. The pouct foun to have tattcally gnfcant effect ae hown n Tale 10. They come pmaly fom the etal an telecommuncaton categoe, wheen an often maket oa lne of elate pouct. It pehap unupng that thee pouct vay n the effect on onlne hoppng, a the value popoton an taget emogaphc ffe utantally Baelne Moel Paamete Etmate The an fxe effect, an-pecfc coelaton among onlne hoppng vaale, an categoy-tme nteacton ae peente n the Onlne Appenx. 6. Dcuon The eate n the avetng nuty ha focue manly on the negatve effect of mea multtakng: tactng conume attenton fom avetng. In th eeach, we hope to emphaze a potentally potve apect: the econ ceen may enale an mmeate an meauale epone to ome televon avetement. The queton then ecome, how can an alte the tatonal televon avetng effot to nfluence onlne hoppng? The pupoe of th pape to nvetgate whethe an how televon avetng affect taffc an tanacton at the avete wete. Th eeach contute to the lteatue on co-mea avetng effect y howng how an can eneft fom nceae mea multtakng, patculaly the conume hat of multaneouly watchng televon an owng the ntenet. The eult howe that televon avetng nfluence onlne hoppng 25

27 an that avetng content play a key ole. Avetement that ue acton-focu content ae foun to nceae oth wete taffc an ale contonal on vtaton, n lne wth the ectepone avetng lteatue (Tell et al. 2000). Infomaton- an emoton-focu element euce wete vt ut nceae ale, wth potve total effect fo mot an. Th algn wth po wok howng that avetement that ell effectvely eult n fewe wete vto, ut thoe who o vt ae moe nclne to make a puchae. Fnally, we fn that magey-focu content euce ect vtaton wthout any meanngful mpact on ale Implcaton fo Avetng Management Manage make thee majo econ n plannng the avetng campagn: how much to pen, whee to pen t (.e., what mea to ue) an what to ay (.e., what a content to ue). Th eeach eal wth the lat two queton. Ft, t etalhe that makete can ue televon avetng to nfluence conume acton onlne. Secon, we have hown how fou type of avetng content nfluence onlne hoppng. Pehap the mot tkng fnng that avetng content can have oppote effect on taffc an tanacton, nceang one at the expene of the othe. Intenet ale ata ae typcally pae an hghly vaale, o an avetng manage who want to optmze the onlne effect of he TV avetng uget mght natually cone ung wete taffc a a ucce metc. Howeve, ou eult ugget that uch a metc mght lea to pecely wong concluon f he ung nfomaton- o emoton-focu a content, a thee type of a content euce taffc whle multaneouly nceang total ale fo mot an. One clea ecommenaton that avete eekng to tmulate mmeate onlne epone mght want to avo heavy ue of magey content n the avetement. Whle they 26

28 may wok fo conume of a ngle meum (MacInn an Pce 1987), thee a euce wete vtaton. Thee ecommenaton houl e apple wth cauton a they may only apply to the two-hou wnow wthn whch we montoe onlne epone. Alo, the total effect on ale wee foun to vay aco an fo each type of a content. Fnally, ou ata only meaue onlne ale, o ou etmate o not tnguh ncemental ale fom thoe that may cannalze tatonal channel uch a offlne etal o telephone Caveat an Futue Reeach A wth all eeach, ou analy uject to numeou caveat. The mot mpotant lmtaton that we o not ectly oeve whch a wee vewe o attene to y whch houehol. We egne the eeach to pevent th unoeve facto fom ang ou fnng; howeve, ecaue we not contol what TV o onlne content conume wee expoe to, we lmte ou nvetgaton to ef wnow of tme. Futue eeach wll eally e ale to tuy multan, mult-mea, ngle-ouce panel ata of avetng expoue, onlne taffc an ale, an look fo longe-tem effect. We hope ou fnng mght help to tmulate attempt to ceate an hae uch ataae. Ou explanaton fo the avetng content fnng ae content wth ome po eeach, ut they ae peculatve, a we have teate the effect of avetng content on ntenet hoppng a an empcal queton. Th analy mght llutate the potental of moe ect tet (uch a laoatoy o fel expement) of thee effect. One pole egn woul e to expementally manpulate the agnment of commecal to lot wthn a televon avetng cheule n oe to meaue how content ffeentally affect multtake onlne hoppng ehavo. 27

29 Anothe lmtaton of ou appoach that we o not oeve an wete content o onlne avetng effot. Whle thee vaale ae hel contant y ou eeach egn, one woul natually expect them to nfluence the popenty of a conume to puchae afte owng a an wete. A next logcal tep woul e to quantfy the effect of wete content on ale, an nvetgate how t mght nteact wth televon avetng content. It woul alo e nteetng to meaue how onlne a ffeentally affect houehol that have een expoe to televon avetement, an vce vea. It mut e note that ome of the empcal fnng may e pecfc to the meaue of avetng an hoppng. Fo example, we have not tete the entvty of the eult to the 24- hou puchae wnow. Alo, although the fou ummay nce of avetng content nclue many common featue n televon avetement, they ae not tghtly lnke to etalhe theoe of avetng content. A futful aea fo futue eeach woul e to analyze atonal commecal chaactetc an efne the meaue of a content an onlne hoppng. In concluon, an manage have to eal wth two effect of mea multtakng. On one han, t may vet conume attenton away fom avetng. On the othe han, hanhel evce may enale a moe mmeate an meauale epone to tatonal avetng. Th pape take a ft tep n howng how makete can egn the tatonal televon avetng to nfluence onlne hoppng, y managng the elate goal of maxmzng wete taffc an tanacton. In the long un, we expect that makete wll evelop a ophtcate unetanng of how communcaton effot n vaou mea mpact conume at ffeent tage of the puchae funnel. We hope that th wok offe ome ntal poge n that ecton y howng how an can acheve new goal wth ol metho. 28

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33 Secto Ban Avete Pouct Tale 1. Decptve Stattc Kanta Unque A Ceatve A Ineton Total A Spenng ($MM) Seach Engne Refeal Dect Vt Seon Comcoe Tanacton Conveon Rate Datng Chemty 1 4 2, ,196 2, % ehamony , ,793 19, % Match.com , ,629 40, % Pzza Domno' , ,210 12,203 10, % Papa John' , ,019 10,817 6, % Pzza Hut , ,388 10,227 3, % Retale Amazon , ,022 35, % JC Penney' , ,208 32,596 5, % Macy' , ,607 29,790 1, % Ovetock , ,108 20,112 1, % Sea , ,816 22, % Taget , ,337 65,369 1, % Vctoa' Secet , ,605 21,662 4, % Telecom. AT&T ,089 1, , ,335 3, % Spnt , ,110 37, % Vezon , , ,073 8, % Tavel Expea , ,972 46,832 1, % Otz , ,461 22, % Pcelne , ,619 22,995 1, % Southwet ,732 22,747 2, % Total 132 1, ,212 3, , ,040 90,808 Aveage , ,061 49,402 4, % 32

34 Tale 2. Suvey Item y A type Acton-focue I thee a call to go onlne (e.g., hop onlne, vt the we)? I thee onlne contact nfomaton pove (e.g., URL, wete)? I thee a vual o veal call to puchae (e.g., uy now, oe now)? Doe the a potay a ene of ugency to act (e.g., uy efoe ale en, oe efoe en)? I thee an ncentve to uy (e.g., a count, a coupon, a ale o lmte tme offe )? I thee offlne contact nfomaton pove (e.g., phone, mal, toe locaton)? I thee menton of omethng fee? Infomaton-focue Doe the a menton at leat one pecfc pouct (e.g., moel, type, tem)? I thee any vual o veal menton of the pce? Doe the a how the an o taemak multple o few tme? Emoton-focue I the a ntene to e emotonal? (You may not agee. But wa that the ntenton of the a?) Doe the a gve you a wam feelng aout the an? Doe the a tell a toy (e.g., wth chaacte, a plot, an enng)? I the a ceatve, cleve? I the a ntene to e funny? (You may not agee. But wa that the ntenton of the a?) Imagey-focue Doe th a pove enoy tmulaton (e.g., cool vual, aoung muc, mouth-wateng)? I the a vually pleang? I the a cute? (e.g., ay, puppy, anmate chaacte) Tale 3. Coelaton n Avetng Content Attute Actonfocue Coelaton aco content attute Infomatonfocue Emotonfocue Imageyfocue Avg. co. wthn content attute Acton-focue Infomaton-focue Emoton-focue Imagey-focue

35 Secto Ban Tale 4. A Content Decptve y Ban Avete Pouct Num. Unque A Ceatve Actonfocue mn=0,max=7 avg. (t.ev.) Infomatonfocue mn=0,max=3 avg. (t.ev.) Emotonfocue mn=0,max=5 avg. (t.ev.) Imageyfocue mn=0,max=3 avg. (t.ev.) Datng Chemty (2.0) 1.0 (1.0) 1.5 (0.9) 0.3 (0.4) ehamony (1.2) 1.2 (0.5) 2.2 (0.9) 1.1 (0.9) Match.com (0.8) 0.5 (0.6) 2.9 (1.0) 1.5 (1.1) Pzza Domno' (1.5) 2.9 (0.4) 2.0 (1.2) 1.5 (0.7) Papa John' (1.0) 3.0 (0.1) 1.0 (0.9) 1.4 (0.5) Pzza Hut (1.3) 3.0 (0.2) 1.3 (1.4) 1.5 (0.7) Retale Amazon (1.1) 2.7 (0.7) 3.0 (0.0) 2.1 (0.4) JC Penney' (1.7) 2.0 (0.8) 0.8 (1.0) 1.4 (1.0) Macy' (1.7) 2.1 (1.1) 0.9 (1.4) 1.2 (0.9) Ovetock (1.0) 2.3 (0.7) 2.3 (0.8) 1.8 (0.8) Sea (1.2) 2.0 (0.8) 1.7 (1.4) 1.0 (0.8) Taget (1.0) 1.2 (1.0) 2.1 (1.1) 1.7 (0.9) Vctoa' Secet (0.8) 1.2 (0.7) 0.3 (0.6) 1.6 (0.5) Telecom. AT&T (1.6) 1.5 (1.0) 2.4 (1.2) 1.6 (0.9) Spnt (1.2) 2.0 (0.8) 1.7 (0.9) 1.3 (0.7) Vezon (1.9) 1.9 (1.0) 1.4 (1.2) 1.3 (0.6) Tavel Expea (1.5) 1.5 (0.8) 1.6 (1.2) 1.6 (1.0) Otz (0.6) 1.2 (0.4) 2.1 (1.1) 0.8 (0.8) Pcelne (1.5) 1.6 (0.6) 2.4 (1.2) 1.0 (0.5) Southwet (1.2) 0.8 (0.9) 2.4 (0.9) 0.9 (0.6) Aveage (t. ev.) aco all teatment 3.0 (1.7) 1.9 (1.0) 1.8 (1.3) 1.4 (0.8) Tale 5. Coelaton of Teatment an Contol Ban Onlne Shoppng, y Secto an Hou of the Day Secto Seach Engne Refeal Dect Taffc Tanacton Retale Datng N/A* Telecom Tavel * Contol an ae fee wete wth no puchae 34

36 Tale 6. R-Squae Stattc y Onlne Shoppng Vaale an Moel Specfcaton Tale 7. Effect of A Content on Seach Engne Refeal, Dect Taffc an Tanacton 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) 2 Mnute (Qua-Dff.) R-quae R-quae Seah Seah Dect Tanacton Vt acton Dect Tan- Engne Engne Vt Refeal AIC BIC Refeal AIC BIC Teatment Effect Only Baelne Only , , ,030,240 2,050,468 Baelne Teatment Effect , , ,024,186 2,051,297 Baelne Categoy-Specfc , , ,024,205 2,051,695 Teatment Effect Nume of Oevaton 277, ,212 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) 2 Mnute (Qua-Dff.) Seah Seah Dect Tanacton Vt acton Dect Tan- Engne Engne Vt Refeal Refeal Acton-focue *** *** *** ** *** (0.0117) (0.0269) (0.0094) (0.0012) (0.0022) (0.0009) Infomaton-focue ** *** *** *** (0.0120) (0.0257) (0.0088) (0.0013) (0.0023) (0.0009) Emoton-focue *** *** (0.0100) (0.0217) (0.0077) (0.0010) (0.0017) (0.0007) Imagey-focue *** ** *** *** (0.0092) (0.0188) (0.0061) (0.0009) (0.0016) (0.0006) Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. Rout tana eo n paenthee. Stanaze content meaue 35

37 Tale 8. Atonal Teatment Effect Pogam Type Seah Engne Refeal Documentay ** ** (0.114) (0.231) (0.0751) (0.0270) (0.0558) (0.0188) (0.0289) (0.0598) (0.0205) Dama/Aventue ** (0.110) (0.219) (0.0716) (0.0287) (0.0587) (0.0199) (0.0288) (0.0603) (0.0205) Entetanment *** ** (0.111) (0.224) (0.0727) (0.0307) (0.0636) (0.0215) (0.0294) (0.0616) (0.0208) Featue Flm ** ** (0.108) (0.216) (0.0698) (0.0347) (0.0717) (0.0240) (0.0311) (0.0642) (0.0220) Intucton/Avce *** (0.125) (0.250) (0.0792) (0.0423) (0.0894) (0.0305) (0.0335) (0.0686) (0.0233) New ** (0.113) (0.228) (0.0735) (0.0499) (0.106) (0.0355) (0.0367) (0.0751) (0.0250) Olympc *** *** ** ** (0.247) (0.537) (0.148) (0.0572) (0.123) (0.0421) (0.0431) (0.0859) (0.0291) Othe *** ** ** (0.127) (0.258) (0.0865) (0.0645) (0.141) (0.0456) (0.0521) (0.102) (0.0359) Stcom ** 10 o moe *** o moe ** (0.102) (0.208) (0.0674) (0.0445) (0.0996) (0.0330) (0.0481) (0.0920) Slce of Lfe (0.108) (0.217) (0.0705) Spot *** *** Pat Spen on -5.68e e-08*** 5.58e-09*** (0.120) (0.249) (0.0833) Ceatve (1.56e-09) (3.70e-09) (1.21e-09) Supene/Mytey (0.114) (0.228) (0.0743) Talk ** *** 0.162** Own "Pe" -9.92e-07***-3.19e-06*** 1.03e-07*** Comp. "Pe" 1.13e-07*** -2.74e-07*** 1.07e-07*** (0.115) (0.229) (0.0749) Wnow Spen (4.16e-08) (7.89e-08) (2.59e-08) Wnow Spen (1.98e-08) (4.29e-08) (1.53e-08) Unknown ** Own "Pot" 3.46e-07*** -3.70e-07*** -1.09e-07*** Comp. "Pot" 9.17e-08*** 3.71e-07*** 2.12e-08 (0.144) (0.291) (0.0921) Wnow Spen (4.55e-08) (8.78e-08) (3.26e-08) Wnow Spen (2.21e-08) (4.77e-08) (1.92e-08) Vaety Muc (0.126) (0.257) (0.0840) Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. Rout tana eo n paenthee. 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) Beak Nume Seah Slot Nume Seah Dect Tanacton Vt acton Vt (n pogam) Dect Tan- Dect Engne (n pogam) Engne Vt Refeal Refeal Tanacton 36

38 Tale 9. Effect of Televon Netwok (Sgnfcant Effect Only) TV Netwok Seah Engne Refeal 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) Dect Vt TV Netwok Seah Engne Refeal 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) Dect Vt TV Netwok Seah Engne Refeal 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) Dect Vt Tanacton Tanacton Tanacton ADSM 0.273*** 0.517*** ESPN 0.296*** SPK *** ** (0.0832) (0.194) (0.0645) (0.0818) (0.184) (0.0632) (0.0588) (0.129) (0.0423) AMC 0.309*** FNEW ** STYL *** (0.0926) (0.164) (0.0471) (0.0901) (0.195) (0.0677) (0.761) (1.146) (0.222) BBCA ** FX *** 0.130*** TLC ** (0.184) (0.327) (0.0748) (0.0643) (0.138) (0.0455) (0.0742) (0.144) (0.0467) BET ** GALA ** TNNK 1.386*** *** (0.0685) (0.144) (0.0506) (0.0846) (0.193) (0.0606) (0.263) (0.401) (0.112) BRAV ** GSN 2.040*** TOON 0.560** (0.0698) (0.137) (0.0452) (0.483) (1.374) (0.427) (0.268) (0.490) (0.159) CNBC *** *** *** HIST ** * TRAV ** (0.123) (0.319) (0.0897) (0.0608) (0.131) (0.0432) (0.0795) (0.165) (0.0531) CNN *** MNTV ** TRU 0.290*** (0.0891) (0.177) (0.0532) (0.237) (0.573) (0.207) (0.0757) (0.164) (0.0574) CW *** MTV *** TWC *** ** (0.104) (0.201) (0.0731) (0.0573) (0.120) (0.0404) (0.0913) (0.200) (0.0659) DSCH 3.649*** 9.450*** *** NAN ** USA ** (0.198) (0.289) (0.101) (0.0756) (0.148) (0.0483) (0.0660) (0.130) (0.0437) DXD *** 8.778*** NBC ** VH ** 0.108*** (1.297) (0.348) (2.412) (0.0747) (0.152) (0.0512) (0.0540) (0.112) (0.0378) E! 0.197*** 0.375*** NFLN 0.517*** 1.759*** *** WE ** (0.0631) (0.126) (0.0397) (0.151) (0.372) (0.124) (0.429) (0.656) (0.253) ESP ** NGC *** (0.0923) (0.210) (0.0761) (0.0851) (0.176) (0.0614) Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. Rout tana eo n paenthee. 37

39 Tale 10. Avete Pouct Effect (Sgnfcant Effect Only) Seah Engne Refeal Pouct AT&T : Conume Wele Sevce 1.630*** *** Sea : Famly Appael 1.376*** 0.742*** *** (0.160) (0.0809) (0.0515) (0.334) (0.246) (0.109) AT&T : Pe-Pa Wele Sevce 5.793*** ** Sea : Gaenng Tool & Supple ** (1.779) (0.644) (0.367) (0.275) (0.173) (0.0895) AT&T Go Phone : Pe-Pa Wele Sevce *** Sea : Geneal ** 0.239* (1.316) (0.438) (0.518) (0.441) (0.296) (0.141) AT&T Inc : Copoate Pomoton 2.084*** *** Sea : Geneal NEC * 0.255*** (0.239) (0.111) (0.0774) (0.298) (0.193) (0.0976) AT&T Mole TV : Conume Wele Sevce 5.273*** *** Sea : Jewely & Watche 2.752*** (0.370) (0.158) (0.109) (0.543) (0.510) (0.246) AT&T Unlmte Callng Plan : Conume Wele 4.756*** *** Sea : Men Appael *** 0.756*** (0.441) (0.177) (0.119) (0.329) (0.247) (0.257) JC Penney : Geneal ** Sea : Mult-Pouct 1.409*** 0.529** (0.711) (0.443) (0.258) (0.402) (0.250) (0.116) JC Penney : Houehol *** ** Sea : Optcal 0.655*** (0.693) (0.429) (0.259) (0.248) (0.155) (0.0817) JC Penney : Jewely & Watche *** 1.255** 1.113*** Sea : Sale Announcement 0.916*** 0.395** (0.727) (0.493) (0.303) (0.245) (0.155) (0.0806) JC Penney : Men Appael *** Sea : Tool & Hawae & Bulng Mateal 0.974*** *** *** (0.676) (0.405) (0.242) (0.364) (0.235) (0.117) JC Penney : Women Appael *** *** Southwet Alne : Dometc *** (0.678) (0.410) (0.247) (0.518) (0.299) (0.114) Macy : Chlen Appael 0.986*** Spnt Any Mole Anytme Plan : Conume *** *** *** (0.287) (0.258) (0.110) (0.283) (0.100) (0.0486) Macy : Fagance & Cometc 1.082** ** Spnt Cop : Copoate Pomoton *** *** (0.431) (0.357) (0.117) (0.301) (0.107) (0.0572) Macy : Geneal 0.663*** Spnt Eveythng Data Famly Plan : Conume 2.441** ** (0.256) (0.221) (0.0981) (0.991) (0.397) (0.159) Macy : Geneal Appael 1.204*** Spnt Eveythng Data Plan : Conume Wele ** (0.317) (0.276) (0.124) (0.151) (0.0530) (0.0305) Macy : Geneal NEC 0.787*** Taget : Book & Statoney ** (0.283) (0.236) (0.108) (1.036) (0.857) (0.419) Macy : Mattee 1.458*** 0.518** ** Taget : Sale Announcement 2.654*** 2.053*** (0.264) (0.224) (0.103) (0.839) (0.651) (0.328) Macy : Men Appael ** Taget : Tool & Hawae & Bulng Mateal 3.981** (0.849) (0.590) (0.184) (1.946) (2.324) (0.470) Macy : Men Appael & Men Shoe *** Taget : Toy & Hoy Pouct ** (0.421) (0.350) (0.121) (0.867) (0.656) (0.337) Macy : Men Appael & Women Appael 3.026*** Taget : Veo Game & Sytem *** (0.486) (0.337) (0.168) (1.028) (1.023) (0.381) Macy : Sale Announcement 0.860*** Vezon : Bune Wele Sevce 6.386*** 0.771*** *** (0.233) (0.205) (0.0903) (0.380) (0.159) (0.184) Macy : Women Shoe 1.063** 0.873*** Vezon : Conume Wele Sevce 7.523*** 0.568*** *** (0.413) (0.327) (0.167) (0.342) (0.142) (0.164) Macy Depatment Stoe : Copoate Pomoton 1.083*** Vezon : ISP/TV/Wele 5.384** 1.007* *** (0.265) (0.226) (0.0997) (2.504) (0.527) (0.584) Sea : Electonc Equpment & Acceoe 0.630** Vezon Communcaton : Copoate Pomoton 5.955*** 1.435*** *** (0.262) (0.163) (0.0849) (0.470) (0.206) (0.216) Sea : Electonc Equpment & Acceoe & Tool ** Vezon Famly Shae Plan : Conume Wele 4.993*** *** (0.324) (0.221) (0.135) (0.424) (0.163) (0.196) 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) Seah Dect Tanacton Dect Engne Vt Pouct Vt Refeal Tanacton 38

40 Fgue 1. Seach Engne Refeal, Dect Taffc an Tanacton y Pouct Categoy an Hou 39

41 Fgue 2. A Tmng an Fequency Fgue 3. Seach Engne Refeal an Dect Taffc y Wnow Length an A Content Note: Inceae po to the tat of the a ae an atfact of the cete tme ntepolaton n the gaph. 40

42 Fgue 4. Seach Engne Refeal an Dect Taffc wthn Shote Wnow Length Fgue 5. Reeach Degn Note: each engne efeal; ect taffc; tanacton (ale). 41

43 Fgue 6. Seach Engne Refeal, Dect Taffc an Tanacton fo Contol Ban y Pouct Categoy an Hou 42

44 Fgue 7. Effect of A Content on Seach Engne Refeal, Dect Taffc an Tanacton (2-hou ata) 43

45 Onlne Appenx Th Appenx peent uvey tem an empcal eult that wee omtte fom the man oy of the atcle fo evty. Tale A1 pove the ognal uvey tem that wee coe y the eeach atant n the exece ece n ecton 3.4. Tale A2 an A3 peent the an fxe effect an coelaton paamete n the aelne moel of onlne hoppng that wee etmate ung the two-hou wnow egeon ata (the δ an µ paamete n Equaton 10-12). Thee effect houl not e ntepete a caual, ut they o ece ome nteetng patten. The effect of avetng expentue ae alo epote hee, ut ae ffcult to ntepet ecaue the moel nclue a lage nume of neton covaate (categoy/tme nteacton, TV popety an gene fxe effect, etc.) an cot etmate ae hghly coelate wth thee vaale. Fgue A1-A4 gaph the categoy-tme nteacton fo each of the thee onlne hoppng vaale; pont etmate ae hown n the ol lne, wth 95% confence nteval ncate y coloe ot aove an elow the lne. 44

46 Tale A1. Full Lt of Content Suvey Queton Acton-focue % Match Alpha I thee a call to go onlne (e.g., hop onlne, vt the we)? 79%.71 I thee onlne contact nfomaton pove (e.g., URL, wete)? 89%.83 I thee a vual o veal call to puchae (e.g., uy now, oe now)? 70%.51 Doe the a potay a ene of ugency to act (e.g., uy efoe ale en, oe efoe en)? 79%.65 I thee an ncentve to uy (e.g., a count, a coupon, a ale o lmte tme offe )? 80%.75 I thee offlne contact nfomaton pove (e.g., phone, mal, toe locaton)? 91%.68 I thee menton of omethng fee? 94%.86 Infomaton-focue Doe the a menton at leat one pecfc pouct (e.g., moel, type, tem)? 79%.69 I thee any vual o veal menton of the pce? 93%.92 Doe the a how the an o taemak multple o few tme? 61%.24 Emoton-focue I the a ntene to e emotonal? (You may not agee. But wa that the ntenton of the a?) 89%.67 Doe the a gve you a wam feelng aout the an? 61%.30 Doe the a tell a toy (e.g., wth chaacte, a plot, an enng)? 73%.39 I the a ceatve, cleve? 54%.31 I the a ntene to e funny? (You may not agee. But wa that the ntenton of the a?) 83%.78 Imagey-focue Doe th a pove enoy tmulaton (e.g., cool vual, aoung muc, mouth-wateng)? 61%.31 I the a vually pleang? 66%.37 I the a cute? (e.g., ay, puppy, anmate chaacte) 87%.05 45

47 Tale A2. Ban Effect 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) 2 Hou (Dff.-n-Dff.) Seah Seah Dect Tanacton Vt acton Dect Tan- Engne Engne Vt Ban Refeal Ban Refeal ATT *** 2.453*** Ovetock *** (1.488) (2.412) (0.434) (1.432) (2.323) (0.377) Chemty *** *** 2.226*** Pcelne ** *** (1.498) (2.427) (0.414) (1.551) (2.432) (0.426) ehamony ** *** Sea *** (1.496) (2.421) (0.414) (1.436) (2.331) (0.383) Expea *** Southwet ** *** (1.549) (2.431) (0.426) (1.559) (2.447) (0.431) JC Penney' *** Spnt *** *** 2.286*** (1.467) (2.387) (0.440) (1.487) (2.412) (0.433) Macy' *** Taget *** (1.444) (2.332) (0.386) (1.544) (2.444) (0.493) Match *** Vezon ** *** 2.905*** (1.499) (2.423) (0.414) (1.493) (2.435) (0.463) Otz ** *** Vctoa' *** (1.552) (2.433) (0.426) Secet (1.438) (2.327) (0.384) Note: *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. Rout tana eo n paenthee. 46

48 Tale A3. Ban-Specfc Paamete Etmate 2 H. (D.-n-D.)DV: SE POST Pecto: SE PRE D PRE TC PRE Et. Cot SE PRE D PRE TC PRE Et. Cot SE POST D POST TC PRE Et. Cot Datng Chemty *** *** 4.63e *** 0.235*** *** *** *** ** 1.05e-05** (0.0419) (0.0304) (0.666) (2.93e-05) (0.0691) (0.0703) (0.678) (5.71e-05) ( ) ( ) (0.0258) (4.14e-06) ehamony 0.150*** 0.104*** *** -7.78e *** 0.203*** *** -2.49e *** 0.108*** -1.64e-06 (0.0116) ( ) (0.0912) (7.61e-06) (0.0223) (0.0130) (0.181) (2.09e-05) ( ) ( ) (0.0200) (1.74e-06) Match.com 0.388*** *** 0.210** -2.39e *** 0.283*** 0.535*** -8.73e-05*** *** e-06** (0.0176) ( ) (0.104) (1.86e-05) (0.0165) (0.0130) (0.157) (2.32e-05) ( ) ( ) (0.0128) (2.71e-06) Retale Amazon 0.561*** 0.152*** e-05*** 0.550*** 0.488*** *** 0.107*** *** 0.128*** -6.87e-06 (0.0571) (0.0381) (0.110) (2.27e-05) (0.0833) (0.0578) (0.156) (3.55e-05) (0.0266) (0.0155) (0.0341) (9.36e-06) JC Penney' 0.187*** *** *** 1.62e *** 0.260*** *** 6.58e-06*** *** 0.172*** e-07 (0.0104) ( ) (0.0177) (1.24e-06) (0.0171) ( ) (0.0315) (1.68e-06) ( ) ( ) ( ) (7.91e-07) Macy' *** *** 0.104*** 5.35e-06*** 0.186*** 0.235*** *** 4.27e-06*** *** 0.104*** *** -1.32e-06*** ( ) ( ) (0.0238) (9.79e-07) (0.0106) ( ) (0.0275) (1.52e-06) ( ) ( ) (0.0102) (4.89e-07) Ovetock *** *** e-06*** *** 0.106*** e-05*** *** *** e-06** (0.0180) (0.0174) (0.0747) (1.64e-06) (0.0184) (0.0200) (0.0942) (1.19e-06) ( ) ( ) (0.0394) (6.50e-07) Sea ** *** e-06** *** 0.312*** ** 2.27e-06* *** *** *** 7.75e-07** ( ) ( ) (0.0288) (6.80e-07) (0.0105) ( ) (0.0338) (1.34e-06) ( ) ( ) ( ) (3.26e-07) Taget 0.289*** 0.253*** ** -9.81e-06*** 0.255*** 0.445*** *** -1.12e-05*** *** *** 6.57e-07 ( ) ( ) (0.0364) (1.78e-06) ( ) (0.0110) (0.0433) (2.77e-06) ( ) ( ) (0.0122) (4.01e-07) Vctoa' S *** ** e-05*** *** 0.276*** *** 1.01e-05*** 0.153*** 0.257*** e-06 (0.0275) (0.0147) (0.0232) (1.84e-06) (0.0228) (0.0175) (0.0302) (2.67e-06) (0.0353) (0.0176) (0.0118) (1.15e-06) Telecom. AT&T *** *** *** -7.63E *** 0.568*** *** -3.63e-06*** *** *** *** -4.28E-07 ( ) ( ) ( ) (4.34e-07) ( ) ( ) (0.0133) (8.15e-07) ( ) ( ) ( ) (2.42e-07) Spnt *** *** e-06*** *** e-06*** 0.105*** *** *** -1.75e-07 ( ) ( ) (0.0176) (3.92e-07) (0.0265) (0.0127) (0.0534) (1.30e-06) ( ) ( ) (0.0111) (2.32e-07) Vezon *** *** *** 4.79e *** 0.545*** *** -1.04e *** *** E-06 ( ) ( ) ( ) (3.83e-07) (0.0127) ( ) ( ) (1.05e-06) ( ) ( ) ( ) (5.35e-07) Tavel Expea *** 0.110*** *** -1.05e *** 0.264*** *** -4.77e *** *** *** -1.87e-06 (0.0160) ( ) (0.0380) (6.76e-06) (0.0245) (0.0140) (0.0616) (9.79e-06) ( ) ( ) (0.0143) (2.42e-06) Otz ** e-05*** ** e *** *** 0.114*** -1.01e-06 (0.0166) ( ) (0.0571) (7.17e-06) (0.0305) (0.0128) (0.0841) (1.84e-05) ( ) ( ) (0.0204) (4.02e-06) Pcelne *** *** e *** *** 3.71e *** *** *** 2.31e-07 (0.0153) ( ) (0.0401) (1.90e-06) (0.0187) (0.0116) (0.0550) (4.09e-06) ( ) ( ) (0.0142) (4.33e-07) Southwet *** e-06** *** 5.96e-06*** *** *** e-07*** (0.0394) (0.0249) (0.123) (6.56e-07) (0.0711) (0.0407) (0.202) (1.24e-06) (0.0179) (0.0127) (0.0441) (2.55e-07) D POST Note: SE - each engne efeal; DIR - ect taffc; TC - tanacton. Rout tana eo n paenthee. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05. TC POST 47

49 Fgue A1. Fxe Effect Etmate y Pouct Categoy an Hou of the Day Note: 24 th hou omtte; Dotte lne ncate 95% confence nteval. 48

50 Fgue A2. Fxe Effect Etmate y Pouct Categoy an Mnute of the Hou Note: 60 th mnute omtte; Dotte lne ncate 95% confence nteval. 49

51 Fgue A3. Fxe Effect Etmate y Pouct Categoy an Week of the Yea Note: Week 1 mean the week tatng Januay 3, 2010; 52 n week omtte; Dotte lne ncate 95% confence nteval 50

52 Fgue A4. Fxe Effect Etmate y Pouct Categoy an Day of the Week Note: Satuay omtte; Dotte lne ncate 95% confence nteval 51