Executive Course Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR) Manchester Business School (MBS), The University of Manchester, Harold Hankins Building, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK http://research.mbs.ac.uk/innovation/ Course Directors Dr Rafael Popper, Professor Ian Miles, Dr Effie Amanatidou, Dr Ozcan Saritas Speakers Professor Denis Loveridge, Professor Luke Georghiou, Jonathan Aylen, Joe Ravetz, Guillermo Velasco and guest speakers Mrs Lisa Gledhill (Course Administrator) 30th June 4th July 2014
Monday 30 th June 09.00 09.15 Welcoming Tea and Coffee 09.15 09.30 09.30 10.30 10.30 11.15 Introduction (Ian Miles) The Manchester Foresight Course, the 2014 Agenda and quick tour- de- table Futures, Forecasts and Foresight (Ian Miles) Origins, 5 Generations and 3 Approaches: Prospective, Participatory, Policy Foresight Process and Fundamentals (Rafael Popper) Scoping, Mobilising, Anticipating, Recommending and Transforming Futures 11.30 12.15 12.15 13.00 Stakeholder Participation and Dialogue in Foresight (Ian Miles) Foresight Champions and Momentum Builders Rationales of Foresight (Denis Loveridge) The Grand Challenges rationale 13.45 15.00 Foresight Methodology and Methods (Rafael Popper) The Foresight Diamond and common techniques 15.00 15.15 Tea and Coffee 15.15 17.00 18.30 Practical session (Facilitated by: R. Popper, I. Miles, E. Amanatidou) Group work: Scoping and Mobilising Futures Welcoming Dinner Vermilion restaurant Informal tour- de- table 1
Tuesday 1 st July 09.30 10.15 10.15 11.15 Scanning Strategic Intelligence: Rationales and Approaches (Ian Miles) Horizon Scanning: Methods, Uses and Platforms (Rafael Popper) 11.30 12.30 12.30 13.00 Horizon Scanning for the UK Department of Health (Peter Sharp) Case study: Horizon Scanning informing Health Strategies (CfWI HS project) (Rafael Popper and Guillermo Velasco) 13.45 14.30 14.30 15.00 Using Emerging Issues to initiate Policy Dialogues (Effie Amanatidou) Case study: Wild Cards and Weak Signals (The iknow project) (Rafael Popper) 15.00 15.15 Tea and Coffee 15.15 17.00 Practical session (Facilitated by: R. Popper, I. Miles, E. Amanatidou) Group work: Anticipating Futures 18.30 Dinner MBS Dining Room 2
Wednesday 2 nd July 09.30 10.15 10.15 10.45 10.45 11.15 Beware of the elephant (Joe Ravetz) Modelling and visualization: Applications in practice (Joe Ravetz) Building Databases and Mapping Systems (EFP and CASI projects) (Rafael Popper, Effie Amanatidou and Guillermo Velasco) 11.30 12.15 12.15 13.00 Using Expert Knowledge: Delphi and beyond (Rafael Popper) Quantitative Approaches to Modelling (Jonathan Aylen) 13.45 15.00 Qualitative methods of modelling and visualisation (Joe Ravetz) 15.00 15.15 Meet at MBS Reception to board coach for trip to MOSI 15.15 17.00 Museum of Science and Industry talk and tour (Jonathan Aylen) 18.30 Networking dinner at The Wharf (Castlefield) 3
Thursday 3 rd July 09.30 10.15 10.15 10.45 10.45 11.15 Fundamentals of Scenario Building (Ian Miles) Case study: Research and Innovation Futures (RIF) (Ozcan Saritas) Case study: Forward Visions for the European Research Area (VERA) (Rafael Popper + Video on VERA Scenarios) 11.30 12.15 Scenario Planning and the so what question for managers (Gill Ringland) 12.15 13.00 Scenario round table : Questions and Answers (I. Miles, R. Popper, E. Amanatidou, O. Saritas, D. Loveridge, G. Ringland) 13.45 14.30 Exploiting Visions and Images of the Future (Effie Amanatidou) 14.30 15.00 From Scenarios to Strategies and Policy Recommendations (Rafael Popper) 15.00 15.15 Tea and Coffee 15.15 17.00 Practical session (Facilitated by: R. Popper, O. Saritas, E. Amanatidou) Group work: Recommending and Transforming Futures 18.30 Dinner MBS Dining Room 4
Friday 4 th July 09.30 10.30 10.30 11.15 Roadmapping: Fundamentals and practical examples (Ozcan Saritas) Mixed approaches to Priority setting and decision making (PSDM) (Sergio Salles- Filho and Adriana Bin) 11.30 12.15 12.15 13.00 Evaluating Foresight (Rafael Popper and Ian Miles) Transforming futures: From policy formulation to policy implementation (Luke Georghiou) 13.45 15.00 Practical Reporting and Review of Course 15.00 15.15 Tea and Coffee 15.15 16.00 Questions and answers panel Chair: Ian Miles with O. Saritas and R. Popper 16.00 Farewell cocktail at MBS West 5
About the course: Foresight Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present The world continues to experience great uncertainty about the unfolding economic crisis and it s wider aftershocks. Many countries, industries and public services face uncertain and challenging futures where the quest for opportunities is increasingly competitive. Economic discontent has combined with existing political stresses to catch many institutions and countries - wrong- footed. Meanwhile, globalisation, demographic, environmental and technological trends are reshaping the rules of the game. This intensifies the need for reflection upon all sorts of assumptions, plans and strategies for the long- term future. The (MIoIR) has been running an annual foresight training course for over a decade. Our fifteenth course, in 2014, explores ways in which foresight can help decision- makers confronted with the uncertainties outlined above. What do we have to look for on and over the horizon? How can this be tackled systematically, with results that are really useful for decision- makers? What is the role for scenario analysis and planning? The course provides a concentrated and intensive, practically- orientated learning experience. It explicates why, and how, we should apply forward looking approaches. It considers how to move beyond narrow technology foresight: how to address interrelations between social and environmental issues, and the application of foresight and horizon scanning tools to complex topics such as health and sustainable innovation. The approaches presented are generally applicable, but illustrated with specific cases. The course emphasises the application of foresight to inform strategies, policies, and priorities. Coordinated lectures and practical work enable participants to experience the relevance and the realities of foresight activity. The course is aimed at people whose work is liable to affect the future of business, government or Non- Governmental Organisations. For instance, they may work, or expect to work, as: sponsors of foresight projects foresight practitioners entrepreneurs senior managers company directors The Institute's unique position in foresight activity has resulted in wide international participation in the course in previous years. This includes people from over 50 including: Canada, the Caribbean, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Latin America, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the Russian Federation, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the UK and many other countries. The course draws upon MIoIR's extensive experience of organising, consulting, researching and teaching/training in foresight activities across Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Middle and Far East. We have provided direct assistance to more than a dozen countries' national Foresight exercises, and have longstanding co- operation with the EC and UNIDO. 6
The (MIoIR) is the research centre of excellence in the Manchester Business School (MBS) and The University of Manchester in the field of innovation and science studies. With more than 50 full members and a range of associated academics from across the University, MIoIR is Europe s largest and one of the World s leading research centres in this field. The Institute s key strengths lie in the linkage and cross- fertilisation of economics, management and policy around innovation and science. Building on forty years of tradition in innovation and science studies, the Institute s philosophy is to combine academic rigour with concrete practical relevance for policy and management. This includes broad engagement with and research for policy makers and societal and industrial stakeholders in the Manchester City Region, across the UK and internationally. MIoIR is also firmly committed to a range of teaching activities within and beyond MBS and integrates a strong and successful PhD programme into its research activities. The Institute has a visitor programme for academics and management and policy practitioners and provides a range of popular and high level executive education courses on evaluation, foresight and S&T Policy. For more information please visit www.mbs.ac.uk/research/portals/innovation/