Scenario Planning Applied Tucson Water s Experience Ralph P. Marra Responding to Change & Uncertainty Workshop Phoenix Carnegie Center March 7, 2012 Image Source: Tucson Water
Scenario Planning in Brief Provides a strategic planning framework Applies to dynamic planning environments Prioritizes critical planning uncertainties Promotes developing a consensus vision about the challenges that lie ahead Increases planning flexibility Enhances an organization s capacity to adapt to uncertain change
Contrasting the Methods Traditional Approach Outcomes A B C D Equally Possible Futures Scenario Planning Elements Common to A-D Elements Common to A-C Elements Common to A-B A B C D Source: Tucson Water
Scenarios allow a manager to say, I m prepared for whatever happens. Peter Schwartz The Art of the Long View Source: Modified from Central Arizona Project
Many Factors Can Influence a Water Issue Financing Politics The Environment Emerging Contaminants New Supply Sources Public Perception Security Economy Source: Tucson Water Climate Variability Growth Pressure Increasing Regulation Conservation Drought
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. --Yogi Berra Source: Modified from Central Arizona Project
Using Scenarios in Water Utility Planning Water Plan: 2000 2050 (2004) Chapter 6: The Planning Process Chapter 7: The Recommended Plan Plate 1: Recommended Plan Summary Appendix D: Planning Methodology http://cms3.tucsonaz.gov/water/waterplan
Scenario Planning Process The Nine-Step Program 1 Frame the 2 What are its 3 Rank the question / issue driving forces? driving forces 6 Identify trends common to all futures 5 Create the scenario matrix 4 Identify the most important uncertainties 7 Describe the characteristics of each future Source: Modified from Tucson Water 8 Create an actionable path to address the needs of each future 9 Identify path elements common to multiple futures
Scenario Planning Process Steps of Interest Today 1 Frame the 2 What are its 3 Rank the question / issue driving forces? driving forces 6 Identify trends common to all futures 5 Create the scenario matrix 4 Identify the most important uncertainties 7 Describe the characteristics of each future Source: Modified from Tucson Water 8 Create an actionable path to address the needs of each future 9 Identify path elements common to multiple futures
Tucson Water s Planning Issue (2004) How should the Utility bring into full use its two currently available renewable water resources? Central Arizona Project Water Municipal Effluent
Utilizing Tucson s CAP Water Situational Context in 2004 Tucson had system corrosion problems when it tried to shift from groundwater to CAP water in the early 1990s. A perfect storm developed with CAP s higher salinity and the City s Treatment Plant being blamed for the red water and plumbing issues. Water customers came to distrust CAP water, the City s new Treatment Plant, and the Utility CAP deliveries were suspended for seven years. Tucson developed a program to use some of its CAP water by naturally treating and blending it with ground-water via recharge & recovery. What about the rest of its CAP allocation? The Community came to accept CAP recharge and recovery but not necessarily higher salinity & direct chemical treatment the Utility was uncertain about how to proceed.
Increasing Uncertainty Identifying the Most Critical Uncertainties Is the public willing to pay for discretionary water-quality improvements to the CAP/ groundwater blend? Will the public accept the use of the City s Water Treatment Plant for direct treatment of CAP water? Source: Modified from Tucson Water Increasing Importance
The Scenario Planning Matrix Defining the End-Member Futures Direction Scenario II Scenario I Direction Direction Scenario III Scenario IV Direction Source: Tucson Water
Source: Modified from Tucson Water X
Scenario Planning Process Step #9 1 Frame the 2 What are its 3 Rank the question / issue driving forces? driving forces 6 Identify trends common to all futures 5 Create the scenario matrix 4 Identify the most important uncertainties 7 Describe the characteristics of each future Source: Modified from Tucson Water 8 Create an actionable path to address the needs of each future 9 Identify path elements common to multiple futures
Common Elements in 2004 and Where Things Currently Stand Clearwater Futures Year 2000 2004 Common Elements CAVSARP Spencer Interconnect Secondary Disinfectants Public Outreach SAVSARP Feasibility 2006 Some Direct Treatment All Recharge I Surface Enhancement II Industry Standard III Recharge Only? 2012 IV Enhanced Recharge Source: Modified from Tucson Water
Scenario Lessons Learned 1. Obtain the explicit support of upper management 2. Encourage the active participation of upper level managers 3. Engage a wide range of subject experts from across the organization during the scenario development sessions 4. Establish a smaller core scenario planning team to reconcile/distill information generated in each session 5. Allow for intense but professional disagreements between participants strong feelings will likely be at play 6. Attend to session dynamics keep things moving 7. Memorialize (in detail) the process and its outcomes setting the stage for a future update possibly years later.
Questions? II I III IV ralph.marra@cox.net