Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tools and Methods

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Tools and Methods Climate Finance Readiness Seminar Leif Kindberg Knowledge and Learning Manager, ARCC

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW About ARCC Overview of Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments Mali Climate Vulnerability Mapping Uganda Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

ABOUT ARCC Task Order: African and Latin American Resilience to Climate Change (ARCC) Duration: October 2011 November 2014 Team: World Resources Institute (WRI), ACDI/VOCA, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and others What ARCC does: Task Area 1: Development of Vulnerability Assessment Methodologies Purpose Our Work Assist USAID to design climate-smart policies and programs Definition of Vulnerability V = f(exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)

SUMMARY of VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS ARCC Vulnerability Assessments Analytical Focus Uganda Malawi Senegal Dominican Republic West Africa Southern Honduras Western Honduras Agricultural Crops Coffee, Beans, Maize, Cassava, Matooke, Rice, Sweet Potato, Sorghum Maize, Soybeans, Sorghum, Cowpeas, Pigeon Peas, Groundnuts Maize, Sorghum, Sweet Potato, Groundnuts, Cowpeas, Pearl Millet, Fonio, Grasses, Fodders N/A Maize, Sorghum, Cowpea, Millet, Groundnuts, Cotton, Fonio, Rice, Sesame, Cassava Maize, Beans, Coffee Coffee, Potato, Lettuce, Maize, Beans Livestock X X X Fisheries X X X Water Resources X X X X X X X Ecosystems/Marine/ X X X X Forest Socio-Economic X X X X X X X

SUMMARY of VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT COMPONENTS Analytical Components Uganda Malawi Senegal Dominican Republic Spatial Climate Analysis 1 Livelihoods Analysis Crop Analysis Six USAID Feed the Future Districts, 800 households Household Survey, FGDs, KIIs Value Chains, Phenological Central and South Regions: Seven USAID Feed the Future Communities Northeast Region (4 departments) Four Watersheds (Urban and Coastal Communities West Africa Mali, Niger Cameroon, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, etc. Southern Honduras Two Departments (Valle and Choluteca) Western Honduras Six USAID Feed the Future Departments X X+Wind X X+Wind Existing Research Existing Research Existing Research PRA, KIIs Value Chains, Phenological Household Survey, FGDs, KIIs Value Chain, Crop Modeling, Phenological, Livestock FGDs, KIIs FGDs, KIIs FGDs, KIIs N/A Phenological, Adaptive Practices Assessment Agricultural Ecosystems Analysis Phenological, Value Chains Water Analysis Surface Surface Access points for Ground, Coastal Ground, Surface, Watershed Watersheds Livestock Transboundary Rivers, Coastal Ecohydrology, Coastal Institutional X X X X X X X

MALI CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MAPPING: PURPOSE AND DESIGN Purpose: to highlight hotspots of vulnerability within Mali due to high climatic stress, high sensitivity (or susceptibility), and low adaptive capacity Focus: vulnerability of populations to food and livelihood insecurity due to changes in rainfall and increasing temperatures that threaten agricultural production systems Method: a spatial vulnerability index comprising 18 indicators grouped into three vulnerability components: climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Valued attribute: food security, health, and wellbeing Temporal reference: the years ~2010 (current vulnerability), 2030 and 2050 (future exposure only)

MALI CLIMATE VULNERABILITY MAPPING: INDICATORS Reliant on high quality data sets (low uncertainty and fine spatial resolution) that was readily available. Converted to gridded 30 arc-second (~1sq. Km)

MALI VULNERABILITY MAPPING: OUTCOMES Created separate maps for: Exposure Sensitivity Lack of Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Useful for: Targeting of adaptation resources to benefit the most vulnerable currently Identifying areas for further research

UGANDA: RESEARCH FRAMEWORK Purpose: To inform food security programming and investment decisions. Focus: How will projected changes in climate affect important agricultural value chains in Uganda and the livelihoods of villagers who rely upon these value chains? Valued Attributes: household vulnerability (quantitative), crop phenology, value chains, surface water, and institutional capacity (qualitative). Temporal Reference: 1951-80 and 1980-2010, 2015-2045

Climate Analysis METHODOLOGY: Historical observations (Annual, seasonal, monthly and daily characteristics) 2 periods: 1951-80 and 1980-2010 Climate modeling with statistical downscaling Livelihoods Analysis Quantitative: 800 household surveys Qualitative: 80 focus group discussions Crop Analysis 8 crop value chain assessments Phenological screening Water Resource Analysis 250 200 150 100 50 0 GULU J M M J S N Useful for: Establishing evidence base for vulnerability Disaggregating drivers of vulnerability Targeting of adaptation resources 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

ADAPTIVE PATHWAYS Technical solutions: National research programs: drought resistant seeds, pests/diseases, climate information Effective extension services: intercropping, soil & water management Functioning input markets: organization, quality control, investment Investment solutions: Expand livestock, plant trees, crops, purchase tractor, build irrigation Increase access to village savings and loan associations Diversification solutions: Create income streams protected from climate variation including: shopkeeping, skilled trades, agro-processing, teaching, civil service, etc.

STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT IN ASSESSMENT Scoping Previous work Information needs Appropriate approach Data sources Field Work Data collection/analysis Options Analysis Awareness Understanding Developing recommendations Useful for: Understanding program overlap and avoiding redundancy Strengthening stakeholder support Ensuring consistency with national strategies and plans

TRANSFORMING ASSESSMENT INTO ACTION District Workshops 6 vulnerability assessment districts Capitalized on existing USAID/Uganda engagement platform District Operational Plans Attendees included district local government & USAID IPs Technical and non-technical staff Objectives Improve understanding of climate change Improve understanding of adaptation options Begin to formulate action plan to address climate change Introduce new district-level project to develop and implement action plans with a focus on integrating climate change into district development plans

LESSONS LEARNED Using a participatory process from the start made people aware and interested in the assessment Fostered discussion throughout the process It takes a lot of time and effort to communicate effectively Need to make sure written documents can be understood by non-technical audiences while still being relevant to technical individuals Presentations and workshops take a lot of time plan and implement

QUESTIONS? More information at http://community.eldis.org/arcc/

PRESENTING RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT Presentations Targeted USG, GOU, donors, researchers Broad Report Civil society, private sector, IPs Shortened Executive Summary Executive Summary Full Report Annexes Summary of Climate Findings District Scenarios

RESULTS: CLIMATE CHANGE Inter-annual rainfall variability is high. No robust and significant change in annual mean rainfall projected for the 2015-2045 period. Projection of potential increase in precipitation in December- February season (dry season in all locations). A consistent and significant warming trend has been observed and is projected to increase. There is a potential for increase in the frequency of extreme events. Current rainfall and temperature levels are suitable for agriculture throughout the entire country. Nevertheless, changes in local rainfall seasonality may negatively impact on crop value chains and increase livelihood vulnerabilities.

RESULTS: HOUSEHOLD SENSITIVITY Three-quarters of the sample = most vulnerable Least vulnerable households: Have more producers relative to non-producers and are better educated Have physical assets that can be partially liquidated in the event of a crisis Have access to financial capital (crop sales, animal sales & off-farm income) Cultivate their social capital Most vulnerable households: Higher dependency ratios Many female-headed households Food security is a measure of urgency: longer periods of food insecurity in 2011; food security deteriorated, while the less vulnerable households on average improved

RESULTS: CROP SENSITIVITY Coffee and Matooke - most vulnerable to climate change With rising temperatures both Arabica and Robusta coffee will likely shift up the altitude profile; Erratic precipitation and rising temperatures reduce productivity. Maize, Beans and Rice - moderately vulnerable Rising temperatures unlikely to affect production; Maize is greatly affected by short-term water stress or hail, Beans develop significant fungal and viral diseases; Growing conditions for rice sub-optimal. Sorghum, Cassava and Sweet Potato - less vulnerable Efficient photosynthesis, water retention and nutrient utilization of sorghum adaptable to a wide range of climactic conditions; Both Sweet potato and cassava grow well in excess of the temperature increases yet, both are highly vulnerable to disease and pest.