January 2009 Higher Education Enrollment and the Economy How the economic crisis is affecting college application, admission, and matriculation decisions University Research Partners (URP) is the research division of Royall & Company. URP designs, deploys, and analyzes national issue-oriented research that explores topics of compelling interest to higher education leaders and policy makers, as well as developing institution-specific research for its 200+ nonprofit higher education clients. 1920 East Parham Road Richmond, Virginia 23228 www.royall.com 800.899.7227 University Research Partners maintains a national student panel for the development of important longitudinal data and, since its inception, has surveyed approximately 500,000 students on their beliefs and concerns about higher education. 2009 Royall & Company
Research Method In November 2008, college-bound secondary school seniors were invited to participate in an online survey about how the current economy is influencing their college application and enrollment plans. The survey was deployed in a number of waves to ensure statistically valid representation from all regions of the country and all significant student segments. A total of 1,022 students participated in the study, which concluded in December. Executive Summary of Findings 1. Almost three-quarters of all students surveyed reported they have altered their college application and enrollment plans as a result of the current economic environment. 2. Students at all levels of academic achievement, socioeconomic status, and educational aspiration, and in all regions of the country, indicated their college plans are being influenced by the economic crisis. 3. Students of Color and students from lower-middle-class and middle-class families indicated the greatest likelihood of altering their college plans. 4. Almost one in three students indicated that now in light of the economic environment they are less likely to attend college outside their home states, and more than half indicated they are more likely to attend a school in their home states than they were prior to the economic crisis. 5. Due to the current economic crisis, students are less likely to enroll at four-year institutions, independent institutions, and institutions they believe are not as likely to offer significant merit-based financial aid. 6. Students believe they are facing significantly greater competition for financial assistance for college, and, on the whole, they believe they are less likely to receive significant financial assistance than they would have received a year ago. 1
Key Findings 1. Almost three-quarters of all students surveyed reported they have altered their college application and enrollment plans as a result of the current economic environment. Q: Have your college plans been influenced by the current financial crisis? Yes 71.1 No 28.9 Q: Describe in your own words how your college plans have been influenced by the current financial crisis. Among students indicating they altered their college plans, comments reveal a variety of ways in which their college plans are being affected by the state of the economy. The following is a summary of these findings. Altered their original consideration sets; they are now considering publics and schools within their home states 31.0 Will now need scholarships, loans, or other financial aid to afford college 25.4 Have no idea how they will pay for college 13.8 Will delay or not go to college next year 9.2 Plan to attend community colleges 6.2 Will work during college 3.7 Concerned about increased competitiveness for scholarships and financial aid 3.5 Concerned about the job market after graduation 3.3 Concerned about the cost of living while attending school 3.3 Concerned about the amount of debt they will incur 1.9 Applying to fewer schools because of the application fees 1.7 Will commute to college 1.7 Indicated they don t know how the economy will influence their college plans 1.5 Applying to more schools to broaden their options 1.0 Chi-square statistics were used to test for significant differences by students (1) gender, (2) ethnicity, (3) region of residence, (4) estimated household income, (5) high school type, and (6) first-generation college status. 2. Students at all levels of academic achievement, socioeconomic status, and educational aspiration, and in all regions of the country, indicated their college plans are being influenced by the economic crisis. 3. Students of Color and students from lower-middle-class and middle-class families indicated the greatest likelihood of altering their college plans in light of the current economic environment. 2
4. Almost one in three students indicated that now in light of the economic environment they are less likely to attend college outside their home states, and more than half indicated they are more likely to attend a school in their home states than they were prior to the economic crisis. Q: Select the statement that best reflects your plans as they relate to the location of school you plan to attend, in light of the current economic environment. I am now more likely to go to a school in my home state 53.4 I am now less likely to go to a school outside my home state 31.3 At this time, I have no preference for in-state versus out-of-state schools 23.5 I am most likely to attend a school outside my home state 13.1 Students of Color indicated fewer concerns about a school s distance from their homes in their college plans than did Caucasian students. 5. Due to the current economic crisis, students are less likely to enroll at four-year institutions, independent institutions, and institutions they believe are not as likely to offer significant merit-based financial aid. Q. Please check all the statements that are true. Due to the current economic environment, I am... I am now more likely to go to a school in my home state 53.4 I am now more likely to attend a public school 48.5 I am now less likely to attend a private school 34.1 I am now less likely to go to a school outside my home state 31.3 I am now going to apply to fewer schools 27.5 I don t think I will alter my college plans as a result of the current economic environment 26.8 I am now going to apply to more schools 21.4 I am now more likely to attend a 2-year community college 18.6 I am now less likely to attend a 4-year college 10.9 I am now more likely to take a year off before beginning college 8.6 Students from all regions of the country showed a migration away from independent colleges and universities and toward public institutions, with the greatest migration anticipated by students from New England, the Middle States, and the West. 3
Q. Select the statement that best reflects your college plans as they relate to financial aid. Almost half of all students surveyed indicated that financial aid offers will determine their college choice, or the likelihood of their attending college at all. I plan to enroll at the best school I get into, regardless of the financial aid package I receive 47.9 I plan to enroll at the school that provides the best financial aid package, even if it is not the best school that admits me 38.1 If I don t get enough financial aid, I may not attend college at all 11.2 A combination of the best school and the best aid 1.9 6. Students believe they are facing significantly greater competition for financial assistance for college, and, on the whole, they believe they are less likely to receive significant financial assistance than they would have received a year ago. Q: Describe in your own words how your college plans have been influenced by the current financial crisis. The following verbatim responses from students provide a sampling of their opinions and beliefs regarding their opportunities for affordable higher education. I was always concerned in how I was going to pay for my college tutition, but now that it s harder to get a scholarship because of the competitive nature of the students... I ve been even more so concerned. (female from California who attends a public high school; A+/A; estimated household income: $60,001-$90,000) It is difficult to go an expensive university because of the shortage of loans and financial aid. (female from New York who attends a private, religious high school; A-/B+; estimated household income unknown) Economically i worried bout not qualifying for full financial aid benefits and not being offered scholarships do because if how bad the economy has become. (male from Nevada who attends a public high school; C+/C; first-generation college student; estimated household income: $30,001-$60,000) I have always been afraid of how to pay for college and loans. Also since the numbers of student applying every year increasing that also has kept me paranoid. Now with the economic crisis it has kept me alert but had not affected my decision to not go to college. I know the benefits of an education either way I m driven to get any type of education I can get. (female from California who attends a public high school; B/B-; first-generation college student; estimated household income: $30,001-$60,000) 4
Due to the current financial crisis, I feel that there may or may not be enough money for all who need financial aid. (female from Louisiana who attends a public high school; A+/A; estimated household income: $30,001-$60,000) It makes me worry more about paying for college. I worry about the availability of loans and possible cut backs on scholarships. (male from Maine who attends a private, religious high school; A-/B+; estimated household income: $90,001-$120,000) The current financial crisis has influenced me and my family because we realize that there will be fewer opportunities for scholarships and aid for students like me that are not the best but higher than average. (male from Connecticut who attends a public high school; A+/A; estimated household income: $60,001-$90,000) The college that I would love to go to is way too expensive to even consider when simply looking at the cost, so the current economic situation only has me working harder to get scholarships and financial aid and it is alot harder to come by. The current situation has been very stressful. (female from Massachusetts who attends a public high school; A+/A; estimated household income: $30,001-$60,000) This financial crisis has taken away a lot of scholarships that I would have otherwise been eligible for. This makes me mad because I have worked so hard the last few years to ensure I could get a scholarship because my family cannot afford to pay for my college. I feel like I ve been ripped off to be honest. All my hard work may have been for nothing. (male from Indiana who attends a public high school; A-/B+; estimated household income: $30,001- $60,000) 5
Higher Education Enrollement and the Economy A full report of research findings is available upon request. Updated results are scheduled for release on March 16, 2009. Please contact Pamela Kiecker, Ph.D., Head of Research and Issue Analysis, at pkiecker@royall.com or 800.899.7227 for additional information.