ACI Airport Statistics and Forecasting Workshop AVIATION STATISTICS & DATA: A VITAL TOOL FOR THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS Narjess Teyssier ICAO Chief Economic Analysis & Policy Section London, 3 rd March 2011

Content Statistics Data & Trends Forecasts Derived Products

Monitoring air transport development: Statistics, analysis and forecasts Safety MARKET ANALYSES FORECASTING Sustainable Air transport Development Environment Security STATISTICS ICAO : an independent and reliable source of information on civil aviation matters

Civil Aviation : the global picture 2.5 Billion passengers

ICAO Statistics Programme foundations Air Transport Committee Statistics Division Council Statistics Panel Assembly Chicago Convention (Art. 54, 55, and 67) Each contracting State undertakes that its international airlines shall, in accordance with requirements laid down by the Council, file with the Council traffic reports, cost statistics and financial statements showing among other things all receipts and the sources thereof. Assembly Resolutions (A37-20, App. B): Whereas the development of ICAO s validation and storage Integrated Statistical Database provides Contracting States and other users with an efficient online system for the retrieval of statistical data; Requests the Council, calling on national experts in the relevant disciplines as required, to examine on a regular basis the statistical data collected by ICAO and etc 5

Aviation statistics collection, dissemination and use : a value chain

12 existing reporting forms COMMERCIAL AIR CARRIERS STATISTICS A Commercial air carrier traffic by carrier A-S Total traffic of all commercial air carriers of a State B On-Flight Origin and Destination C Traffic by Flight Stage D Fleet and Personnel EF Financial Data AIRPORTS I Airport traffic by airport I-S Total traffic of all the airports in the territory of a State J Financial data AIR NAVIGATION SERVICES PROVIDERS K Financial data L Traffic CIVIL AIRCRAFT ON REGISTER H Number of aircraft in the register 7

Most popular series Match Multi-Stage and single Leg OFOD pax A - B 120 A - C 50 A - D 30 B - C 80 B - D 25 C - D 60 TOTAL 365 Flight Stages A - B B - C C - D 120 50 50 30 30 30 80 25 25 60 200 185 500 8

STA/10 Outputs 23-27 Nov 2009: Tenth Session of the Statistics Division (STA/10) RECOMMENDED AMENDMENTS IN THE CURRENT AIR TRANSPORT REPORTING FORMS: PARTIAL REMOVAL OF THE OFOD PUBLICATION RESTRICTIONS A DOPTION OF A STATISTICAL CLASSIFICATION POSTING OF A LIST OF WORLDWIDE LCCS NEED TO NOMINATE DGCA S FOCAL POINTS FOR STATISTICS, ETC.. RECOMMENDED NEW DATA COLLECTIONS AND PROCESSES IMPLEMENTATION To implement a form on aviation personnel licenses and training To introduce a new collection process on fuel consumption by commercial air carriers ETC

Internal and external surveys Research was required amongst existing: Internal users to ICAO STA site (free access) and External users to ICAOData.com Research objectives: Understand which information is important in users job roles Explore how the data accessed from both sites are used Identify any improvements which users would like to see Methodology An online survey was emailed to around 1000 users and subscribers An incentive of entry into a free prize draw was offered to boost response External users: a 10% response rate & Internal users: a 21% response rate

Some general comments ICAO secure site is very important for ICAO membership countries there they can find many important and useful information The content is quite useful. The reason it doesn't score higher is the confusing layout and difficulty finding what you want. Very frustrating when trying to access data at an aggregated level. Data has proven not to be particularly helpful as at times quite unreliable Great source of air transport information, very useful for data analyses. I find it invaluable for my research so I am sure my peers would find it equally useful Very useful information the data collected and disseminated by ICAO are very useful to the Aviation Statistics Centre of Canada as they complement our own aviation programme

Usage of the data External users Carry out air transport industry analysis and market studies Produce reports for internal customers Data from ICAO are most often used to carry out industry analysis and market studies 79% 32% Internal users Produce reports for external customers 27% Carry out air transport industry analysis and market studies 62% Import ICAO data into own database Use to help generate sales / business leads 16% 23% Produce reports for internal customers 71% Academic purposes 11% Produce reports for external customers 26% Spontaneous response Other 4% Import ICAO data into own database 25% Other: To construct a model, To understand safety issues Other 11% Security & Safety analyses Forecasts Bilateral negotiations

Users Opinion External users Internal users Fair 18% Poor 4% Excellent 29% Fair 14% Poor 2% Excellent 18% Good 49% Good 66% Around 80% rate both sites as excellent or good

Rating of different types of information according to importance Internal & External users Airline and airport traffic statistics are equally essential for most respondents Essential Important (but not essential) Not useful (but I am interested) Not useful or interesting Airline Traffic Statistics 66% 23% 10% Airline Traffic Statistics by route (Origin / Destination) 55% 32% 12% 1% Airline Traffic Statistics by route (Traffic by Flight stage) 43% 37% 18% 2% Airline Financial Results 30% 32% 29% 9% Airline Fleet Information - Utilisation 32% 39% 24% 5% Airline Fleet Information - Fleet size 30% 42% 25% 3% Airport traffic information 65% 26% 8% 1% Airport financial information 10% 27% 35% 6% Airline Personnel and remuneration statistics 18% 31% 36% 15%

Suggested Improvements to both sites New data collection: Up-to-date Bilateral Air Services Agreements (ASAs) Fuel consumption by a/c type CO2 emissions by air carrier Country breakdown on incidents and accidents Traffic statistics for General Aviation Additional information requested: ICAO training programmes schedule List of focal points in each DGCA General comments referred to improving the quality of data already available by:.completing and updating the missing data for airlines and airports (for consistency purposes) Providing the recent years for airlines data Data processing: Improve set up and layout of the websites, seen as old-fashioned and not user friendly Include pictures, graphs, etc.. Send emails to users every time new data are available Install an online application that make calculation easier

Layout and data processing Current layout of the statistics site

The projected new ICAO data website

ICAO Statistics Programme Why do we need Statistics? 1 Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives Air travel safety rates The environmental impact on air transport The sustainability of air transport development

Fuel consumption and efficiency evolution Fuel burn 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Fuel consumed (USG) AAGR 1998-2008 +2.5 % AAGR 1998-2008 -1.7 % Lts per 100 ATK 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: ICAO based on OAG timetable 19

ICAO Statistics Programme Why do we need Statistics? 1 Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives Air travel safety rates The environmental impact on air transport The sustainability of air transport development 2 Analyse the air transport market

Regional traffic overview for 2010 North America Intal Traffic: 6.2% Dom Traffic: 1.5% Latin America Intal Traffic: 11.4% Dom Traffic: 15.9% Europe Intal Traffic: 6.7% Dom Traffic: 12.2% Middle East Intal Traffic: 21% Dom Traffic: 3.6% Asia Pacific Intal Traffic: 12.9% Dom Traffic: 15.1% World Traffic: 8% Capacity: 3.7% Load Factor: +2 Pt Africa Intal Traffic: 10% Dom Traffic: 4%

Market shares* achieved International traffic represents 60% of the total passenger traffic International passenger traffic** Domestic passenger traffic** Africa * North America 3% Africa * 17% 1% Asia Pacific 30% Middle East 10% Latin America 4% Asia Pacific 25% Europe 41% North America 55% Middle East 1% Europe 8% Latin America 5% * Market share of the scheduled traffic of the airlines domiciled in the region **Expressed in Revenue Passenger Kilometre

Traffic recovery started in 2010, despite the volcanic ash impact World North America Middle East Latin America Europe Asia-Pacific Africa Regional traffic* growth forecasts 4.4% Preliminary 2010 Forecast 2011 Forecast 2012 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 RPKs Growth in % *Traffic of airlines domiciled in each region expressed in RPKs Source: ICAO 2000-2010 average growth

ICAO Statistics Programme Why do we need Statistics? 1 Monitor ICAO Strategic Objectives Air travel safety rates The environmental impact on air transport The sustainable air transport development 2 Analyse the air transport market 3 Assess the impact of new regulations

Air transport conducted under liberal arrangements As a % of international scheduled services Frequencies 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Number of frequencies Number of country-pair routes Country pairs 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Source : ICAO 0% 1995 1999 2004 2009 0%

Toward more consolidation: Alliances, Airlines mergers and acquisitions Most well-known Non Aligned airlines 3 Major alliances grouping : more than 60% of the worldwide scheduled traffic

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