DATA INING TECHNOLOGY IN REDICTING THE CULTIVATED LAND DEAND Lu Yaoln a, *, ao Zuohua a a School of Rsourc and Envronn Scnc, Wuhan Unvrsy, Chna, Wuhan - whzh@hoal.co KEY WORDS: Daa nng, Fuzzy Logc Thory, Transon robably arx, Wgh ABSTRACT: Alhough daa nng s rlav young chnqu, has bn usd n a wd rang of probl doans ovr h pas fw dcads. In hs papr, h auhors prsn a nw odl o forcas h culvad land dand adops h chnqu of daa nng. Th nw odl whch s calld fuzzy arov Chan odl wh wghs alora h radonal T Hoognous Fn arov chan odl o prdc h fuur valu of culvad land dand n land us plannng. Th nw odl appld daa nng chnqu o xrac usful nforaon fro norous hsorcal daa and hn appld fuzzy squnal clusr hod o s up h dsslud fuzzy clusrng scons. Th nw odl rgards h sandardzd slf-corrlav coffcns as wghs basd on h spcal characrscs of corrlaon aong h hsorcal sochasc varabls. Th ranson probabls arx of nw odl was oband by usng fuzzy logc hory and sascal analyss hod. Th xprnal rsuls shown ha h alorav odl cobnd wh chnqu of daa nng s or scnfc and praccal han radonal prdcv odls.. INTRODUCTION Daa nng s h nonrval xracon of plc, prvously unnown, and ponally usful nforaon fro h ass, ncopl, fuzzy, uncran and sochasc daa. Daa nng s h poran sp of Knowldg Dscovry n Daabas (KDD) (L, 00). I has hr aor coponns such as clusrng or classfcaon, assocaon ruls and squnc analyss. Th ass of daa nng ar anly such as assocaon analyss, clusrng, classfcaon, prdcon, -srs parn, and dvaon analyss c. Daa nng ncopass a nubr of dffrn chncal approachs such as sascal hods, arfcal nural nwor, dcson rs, gnc algorhs, nars nghbour hod, rough s hory, and fuzzy logc hory c. A prsn, daa nng anly appld o h rad rrors such as banng, lco, nsuranc, ransporaon, and ralng. I solvd h bhavours of arabl analyss such as daabas arng, cusor sgnaon & classfcaon, crd scorng, and fraud dcon c. Go-spaal daa nng, a subfld of daa nng, s a procss o dscovr nrsng and ponally usful spaal parns bddd n spaal daabass. Effcn ools o xrac nforaon fro assv go-spaal daass ar crucal for organzaons own, gnra, and anag go-spaal daass. Ths organzaons ar sprad across any doans ncludng cology and nvronnal anagn, publc safy, ransporaon, publc halh, ours (Hnzl, 004). Tchnqu of daa nng s rlav young rsarch fld. Nw odls and hors appard vry yar. any probls and challngs wr prsnd for daa nng such as nhancng h ffcncy of odl, daa nng fro dynac ss, daa nng on wb, fuzzy spaal assocaon ruls nng c. As a nw nd of daa analyss chnqu daa nng dvlopd fas. any nds of daass can b h obcs of daa nng. Bcaus srs daa ar vry coon n daass, T Srs Daa nng (TSD) has bn on of h focuss of currn daa nng rsarch (urray, 998). Th culvad land dand daa ar srs daa bu rsarchs on how o apply h chnqu of daa nng o prdc culvad land us ar no dscovrd a currn. In hs papr, h auhors prsn a nw odl adop daa nng chnqu o prdc h culvad land dand n land us plannng.. DATA INING AND REDICTION OF CULTIVATED LAND DEAND rdcon s on of ass of daa nng chnqu. I s a procss o fnd h uav rul fro ass, fuzzy, sochasc daa and hn consruc prdcv odl o forcas h rnd, cagory, and characr of fuur valu. rdcon of culvad land dand s an poran sag of land us plannng. Th rsul of prdcon accura or no rla drcly wh h qualy of land us plannng. Lnar rgrsson prdcon odl and rnd prdcon odl wr radonal hods whch only usd ahacal hod o analyzd h srs daa and no consdrd h fuzzy and uncran ffc of naural and socal facors. Tradonal hods on prdcon of culvad land dand appld h chnqu of daa nng un-suffcnly. Th fuzzy logc hory s on of chncal approachs of daa nng. I s an un-classcal ahacs hory for uncran probls. I as avalabl a convnn and anngful ool o h praccng ngnrs o ncorpora hs sngly vagu bu praccally powrful facors n h svral phass of a proc lf cycl. Ths rsarch s suppord by h Naural Scnc Fund of Chna (No. 407088), h nsry of Educaon Fund of Chna for scholar rurnd fro abroad (No. 574).
arov chan odl can prdc a good any probls, bu xs shorags. Th radonal T Hoognous Fn arov Chan odl ransac h srs daa wh pur algbra hod and no consdr h ffc of fuzzy, uncran nforaon bddd n daa. Ths papr prsns nw arov chan odl cobnd wh fuzzy logc hory. Culvad land dand daa ar sochasc srs daa, so arov chan odl can b ployd o forcas h fuur daa accordng o hsorcal daa. Gnrally srs daa can b dvdd no a connuous ral nubr zon. In ordr o us arov chan odl, h connuous ral nubr zon should b dvdd no fn nubr unabguous sa ss. Bu sas durng h procss of prdcon of culvad land dand wr no unabguous bu fuzzy. Accordng o h nsanc, h auhors prsn ha usng h fuzzy sa ss dscrb h classfd sas wll b closly o h acual saus. Facors wr dvrs, coplcad, and uncran whch affcd culvad land dand, so h auhors ndca ha h nw odl should adop h chnqu of daa nng. In hs papr, h auhors cobn h fuzzy logc hory and daa nng chnqu wh radonal arov chan odl o nhanc h prcson of prdcon of culvad land dand. In ordr o ffcvly ploy h hsorcal daa, nw odl also calculad h wghs accordng h corrlaons aong hsorcal daa srs. 3. CONSTRUCTION OF NEW ODEL Calculaon of ranson probabls s h poran sp of arov chan odl procss. Transon probabls wr calculad basd on h unabguous sa ss. Th auhors solvd hs probl by xndng h ranson probabls arx fro unabguous sa ss o fuzzy sa ss. Fuzzy squnal clusr odl s on of usful hod o classfy srs daa. In hs papr, h auhors apply fuzzy squnal clusr odl o dvd h hsorcal daa of culvad land dand no fuzzy sa zons and hn consruc h ranson probabls arx of arov chan odl by usng fuzzy logc hory and daa nng chnqu. 3. Fuzzy Squnal Clusr odl In ordr o a h dvdd zons rasonabl, h nw odl apply fuzzy squnal clusr odl o dvd h culvad land dand daa no svral fuzzy uav zons basd on h analyss of daa srucur. Fshr algorh was h radonal algorh of fuzzy squnal clusr odl (HU, 990). Th fundanal of Fshr algorh can b dscrbd as followng quaon: + x l l avrag vcor x L x, on possbl fuzzy squnal { } clusrng zon of sochasc varabls srs. x L x n Th corrlaon aong srs daa s h followng quaon: () l ( xl x ) ( xl x D(, ) ) () D (, ) { } h dar of x L x,. I dnos h dscrpan dgr aong varabls loca a on and h sa clusrng zon. And shows ha whn D(, ) sallr ndcas dscrpancy aong daa srs sallr and h corrlaon or adacn, conrarws h dscrpancy largr and corrlaon s dsprsv. In ordr o copar h ffc aong dffrn possbl clusrng, Fshr algorh dfnd h rror funcon dscrbd as followng: [ ( n K) ] ( [ ( n K) ], D, + ) (3), h rror nurcal valu D, + s oband fro Eq, ( n, K) K h nubr of clusrng zons, ( ) s on possbl clusrng b xprssd as followng: ( n K) :{,, };{, L, }; L; {, n, 3 L, (4) L } [ ( n, K)] Fro Eq 3 w can s ha whn g nal valu h bs fuzzy clusrng dvson wll b oband. A h sa, h nubr K can b oband a h nflxon of corrlaon graph bwn [ ( n K) ], and K. 3. T Hoognous Fn arov Chan odl A T Hoognous Fn arov Chan odl was a sochasc procss wh fn ss S {,, L,n} of sa (Brn, 997). How o calcula hs ranson probabls s h poran sp of arov chan odl. Th ranson probably only dpndd on h sa n h prvous sp. I can b dscrbd as followng: In Eq5 p { x x } (5) n n h srs nubr of sa aong sa ss n. n and x n xprss h arov chan procss loca a x n sa a n and xprss h procss loca a sa a n. Dfn dnos h ranson ( n) probably fro. Ths ranson probabls for h ranson probably arx xprssd p sa o sa a n
. I s an non-ngav arx as ( ),, L, n n n (such a arx s calld sochasc). Th ranson probabls arx can b dscrbd as followng: ) L n n ( (6) L n L n L L L L nn 4. FUZZY ARKOV CHAIN ODEL WITH WEIGHTS BASED ON DATA INING As abov scons analyz, h auhors prsn a nw odl adop h chnqu of daa nng. Th nw odl s suarzd as h followng sps:. Calcula h slf-corrlav coffcn of culvad land dand daa Th culvad land dand daa srs ar dpndd on ach ohr. In ordr o dscrb h corrlaon, nw odl calcula h slf-corrlav coffcns aong daa. Th quaon of slf-corrlav coffcns calculaon can b xprssd as: r n n n ( x x)( x x) ( x x) ( x x) +. + (7) ( ) 00 00 S ds s 00 (9) s h culvad land ara a h bgnnng of suprvson ds h rducv aoun of calcula land durng of suprvson h s lngh of suprvson S h culvad land us rnd coffcn whch was scald up o 00 n ordr o a rsarch convnnly 4. Dvd h fuzzy clusrng zons Wh sp3 h daa of culvad land us rnd coffcns wr oband. Nw odl appls h fuzzy squnal clusr odl o dvd hs coffcns daa srs no svral fuzzy clusrng zons. Thus, h fuzzy clusrng zon sa for ach hsorcal culvad land dand daa locad a can b confrd. 5. Calcula h ranson probably Calculaon of ranson probabls s h an sp of nw odl. In hs papr, h auhors calcula h ranson probably for ach dffrn sp by usng fuzzy logc hory. Th procss of calculaon can b dscrbd as followng: Assu : x L x n culvad land dand, s h sochasc srs daa of E : L s on fuzzy clusrng s for. Th nw odl obans h ranson probably by followng quaons: r x s ), h slf-corrlav coffcns of grad (sp h culvad land dand daa a x h avrag valu of all culvad land dand daa srs n h daa nubr of culvad land dand daa srs. Sandardzng slf-corrlav coffcns daa as wghs Dffrn fuzzy clusrng zon has dffrn ffc on prdcv valu. In ordr o dscrb hs dffrnc, h nw odl as h sandardzd slf-corrlav coffcn daa as wgh. Th wgh can b calculad by followng quaon: ϖ r r (8) ϖ wgh, r can b oband wh Eq7. 3. Calcula h culvad land us rnd coffcns Th culvad land us rnd coffcn (LUTC) s an poran parar o xprss h ulzd dgr of culvad land durng on un. Th coffcn can b calculad by followng quaon: and, n l,, L l ( ) ( x ) μ (0) n ( ) μ ( x ) μ ( x ) l l l+ h nubr of daa whch loca a h fuzzy E clusrng sa ( ) aong ( ) h daa nubr ransond fro () fuzzy clusrng sa o sa hrough sps, h sp nubr of ranson μ h fuzzy brshp funcon whch ( ) x l x dnos h dgr of l blongs o fuzzy sa. Fro Eq0 and Eq, Th auhors oban h ranson probably fro fuzzy clusrng sa o sa by h followng quaon:
( ) ( ) ( ) () 6. Consruc h nw ranson probabls arx. Each ln vcor s h dffrn sp ranson probabls of hsorcal daa calculad wh Eq. 7. Calcula h prdcv valu Sung h daa of ach row vcor blongs o on and h sa sa wh h corrspondng wgh n h nw ranson probabls arx by h followng quaon: Calcula h slf-corrlav coffcn of culvad land dand daa of rsarch ara, ha s: r 0.980, r r3 r4 0.94, 0.905, 0.87. Sandardzng slf-corrlav coffcns daa as wghs, ha s: ϖ 0.66, ϖ 0.55, ϖ 3 0.45, ϖ 4 0.36. Applyng fuzzy squnal clusr odl o dvd h culvad land dand daa whch b arrangd fro low o hgh ordr no fuzzy clusrng zons. Fgur shows h corrlaon bwn rror and h nubr of cagory. ( ) ϖ (3) ( ) h ranson probably of sp h sral nubr of fuzzy clusrng zon ϖ wgh oband wh Eq8. In hs papr, h fuzzy clusrng sa of prdcv valu s oband accordng o h axu subordnaon prncpl, ha s: ax {, I}. Th prdcv valu can b calculad wh h followng quaon: ) Y ( ) Q + Q d d (4) Fgur. Culvad land usd rnd dgr Fgur s h graph of culvad land usd rnd dgr. In h graph, ngav valu xprss ha h ara of culvad land was ncrasd, conrarws posv valu xprss ha h ara of culvad land was dcrasd. As fgur shown, h chang of culvad land ara was gra bfor 979 and h chang was slow afr 979. ) Y ( ) h prdcv valu Q d h lf valu of fuzzy clusrng valu zon Q d h rgh valu of fuzzy clusrng valu zon 8. Qualy assssn of h nw odl Rlav rror bwn prdcv valu and facual valu s an as h qualy assssn parar of nw odl. Rlav rror can b calculad by h followng quaon: ( ) ( ) 00 σ ( ) Y( ) Y 00 (5) Y ) σ h rlav rror Y ) ( ) prdcv valu oband wh Eq4 Y( ) facual valu oband fro sascal yarboo [ ] Fgur. Corrlaon graph of rror ( ( n, K ) ) and nubr of cagors (K) As fgur shown, 4 s h nubr of bs dvson cagory. Tabl shows h rsul of fuzzy clusrng zons usng h hod of fuzzy squnal clusrng. 5. EERIENTAL RESULTS AND ANALYSES Th hsorcal culvad land dand daa of on couny n h provnc of Hub (Tabl ) durng 950~003 prods wr oband fro Hub rovnc Sascal Yarboo. Sas Lvls Dsngushd Sandards Incras Qucly 0.59 Incras Slowly 0 x< 0.59 3 Dcras Slowly -.349 x<0 4 Dcras Qucly x<-.349 Tabl. Fuzzy clusrng zons of culvad land daa
Yar 950 95 95 953 954 955 956 957 958 959 Ara /h 63646.57 65866.6 7073.33 73480.0 73493.30 75440.0 74406.67 74673.43 736.68 7000.0 LUTC 3.488 9.43.95 0.08.649 -.370 0.359 -.937-4.379 Sas 4 4 4 Yar 960 96 96 963 964 965 966 967 968 969 Ara /h 66973.33 7066.6 67006.59 6780.0 6779.80 6779.80 65846.67 65333.33 60073.38 5896.6 LUTC -4.35 5.455-5.6 0.59 0.000 0.000 -.984-0.780-8.05 -.909 Sas 4 4 4 3 4 4 Yar 970 97 97 973 974 975 976 977 978 979 Ara /h 56866.69 56400.06 5670.08 55986.67 55566.39 55380.07 55333.33 55086.59 55073.33 55073.33 LUTC -3.496-0.8 0.567 -.93-0.75-0.335-0.084-0.446-0.04 0.000 Sas 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Yar 980 98 98 983 984 985 986 987 988 989 Ara /h 55046.68 54933.3 54866.55 54906.60 54806.58 54739.5 54553.33 54366.6 54086.57 53906.48 LUTC -0.048-0.06-0. 0.073-0.8-0. -0.340-0.34-0.55-0.333 Sas 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Yar 990 99 99 993 994 995 996 997 998 999 Ara /h 5346.37 53059. 5986.37 549. 5939.0 533.3 50805.66 50453.3 49500.0 4895.89 LUTC -.40-0.64-0.37 -.07-0.96 -.359-0.834-0.694 -.889 -.05 Sas 4 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 3 Yar 000 00 00 003 Ara /h 4859.9 47606.6 46959.8 4637.0 LUTC -.46 -.354 -.359 -.347 Sas 4 4 4 3 Tabl. Culvad land dand daa and sas durng 950~003 prod Confrng h fuzzy sa of ach hsorcal daa loca a basd on h sandard of abl. Th rsul s dscrbd n abl. Calcula h ranson probably arx of ach ranson sp. Tha s followng: 3 4 / 5 / 8 0 / 4 /4 / 5 0 / 8 0 / 4 /3 / 5 0 / 8 0 / 4 / / 5 / 8 0 / 3 0 / / 5 / 8 3/ 4 /4 3/ 5 / 8 / 4 /3 / 5 / 8 / 4 3/ / 5 / 8 / 3 3/ 6 / 4 5 /4 4 / 8 7 / 4 3/3 4 / 8 7 / 4 3/ 7 / 3 4 / / 5 / 8 5 / 4 5 /4 5/ 4 5 /3 / 5 3/ 4 3/ / 5 3/ 3 4 / rdc h culvad land dand daa n 003 basd on h hsorcal daa and corrspondng ranson probabls arx durng 999-00 prods. Tabl 3 shows h rsul of prdcon usng h proposd nw odl n hs papr. yar sas sps wghs Transon robabls 3 4 999 3 4 0.36 0/3 /3 7/3 3/3 000 4 3 0.45 / 3/ 3/ 3/ 00 4 0.55 /3 /3 3/3 5/3 00 4 0.66 /4 /4 5/4 5/4 Th su of wh wghs 0.06 0.54 0.395 0.95 Tabl 3. rdcon of culvad land dand daa n 003 yar sas sps wghs Transon robabls 3 4 000 4 4 0.36 0/ 3/ 4/ 4/ 00 4 3 0.45 / 3/ 3/ 3/ 00 4 0.55 /3 /3 3/3 5/3 003 3 0.66 0/4 3/4 6/4 5/4 Th su of wh wghs 0.04 0. 0.4 0.3 Tabl 4. rdcon of culvad land dand daa n 004 { } 395 ax p 0. 3 As abl 3 shown, h and. I shows ha h prdcv daa loca a hrd fuzzy squnal clusrng zon (dcras slowly). Th fuzzy zon of prdcv valu can b calculad, ha s: [ ]. Y ) 4636.33, 46959.8 Thus, h prdcv valu ( ) n 003 s 4664.84 h whl h facual valu s 4637.0 h oband fro h sascal yarboo. I s asly o calcula h rlav rror only 0.68%. I ndcas ha applyng h rforav odl (fuzzy arov chan odl wh wghs) o prdc h culvad land dand daa wll ffcvly nhanc h prcson of prdcon. A h sa nw odl can rduc h coplxy of calculaon. Wh h sa procss, h auhors prdc h culvad land dand daa n 004 basd on h hsorcal daa and
corrspondng ranson probabls arx durng 000-003 prods. Tabl 4 shows h rsul of prdcon usng h proposd nw odl n hs papr. { } 34 ax p 0. 3 As abl 4 shown, h and. I shows ha h prdcv daa loca a hrd fuzzy squnal clusrng zon (dcras slowly). Fuzzy zon of prdcv valu can b calculad, ha s: [.06, 4637.0] 4570. Thus, h prdcv valu n 004 s 4604.53 h. 6. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSIONS Th radonal odls for prdcon of culvad land dand wr no ffcvly solvd h fuzzy and uncrany nforaon. As a nw nd of daa analyss chnqu, daa nng can xrac h usful nforaon fro norous hsorcal daa. Thus, h auhors prsnd a nw odl o rfor h gnral T Hoognous Fn arov Chan odl. Th nw odl adopd h daa nng chnqu such as fuzzy logc hory, wghs, sascal analyss, and culvad land us rnd coffcns odl. As xprnal rsuls and analyss shown, h rforav odl can dvd h srs daa or rasonabl and ffcvly dscrb h dsrbung rul xsd n h daa srs. Nw odl a sandardzd slf-corrlav coffcn of ach ranson sp as wgh and b cobnd wh corrlaon analyss. Th physcs concp of nw odl was clar and calculaon was sply. Th nw odl provdd a gropng hod for nhancng h prcson of prdcon. A h sa, h auhors ndca ha h nflunc of ohr fuzzy sa zons bsds h axu subordnaon sa zon should b consdrd whn calculad h prdcv valu. Th corrspondng wgh for ach fuzzy clusrng sa zon should b dfnd and hn calcula h prdcv valu wh h avrag valu of all wghs. Adop anohr hory and odl no h calculaon of wgh for fuzzy clusrng sa zons s h rsarch a nx sag. F. Hnzl,.. Ssr, 004. Drvaon of plc nforaon fro spaal daa ss wh daa nng. In: Th Inrnaonal Socy for hoograry and Ro Snsng, Isanbul, Tury, Vol 35, pp.335-34. Brn T.V., Arov V.Y., Kulov G.G, 997. On Sochasc Sys Idnfcaon: arov odls Approach. In: Kora rocdngs of h nd Asan Conrol Confrnc, Soul, Kora, pp. 775-778. HU Guodng, ZHANG Runchu, 990. Analyzng ulvara Daa-Transacng wh ur Algbra hod. Tanng: Nanan Unvrsy rss. chln Kabr, JIA Whan, 00. Daa nng: Concp and Tchnqus. Bng: Chna chancal Indusry rss. CHNEG Baoxu, YU Jngshan,004. Fasbly Sudy of Applcaons of Daa nng o Wahr Forcas. Appld Scnc and Tchnology, 3(3), pp. 48-50. LIANG Wuq, JIANG Kqng, 004. Rsarch on Fuzzy Clusr Analyss and Applcaon n Daa nng. Journal of Anqng Tachrs Collg (Naural Scnc), 0(), pp.65-68. LAN Rongqn, LIN Lxa, CHENG Langyou, 004. Saus and rogrss of Spaal Daa nng and Knowldg Dscovry. Gographcal Inforaon, 0(3), pp. 9-. FENG Yaolong, HAN Wnxu, 999. Th Applcaon of Wghd arov-chan o h rdcon of Rvr Run off Sa. Syss Engnrng-Thory and racc, 0(0), pp. 89-93. Ndlovc I., 004. Iag classfcaon basd on fuzzy logc. In: h Inrnaonal Socy for hoograry and Ro Snsng, Isanbul, Tury, Vol34, ar, pp. 83-89. REFERENCES LI Drn, WANG Shulang, SHI Wngzhong, 00. On Spaal Daa nng and Knowldg Dscovry. Goacs and Inforaon Scnc of Wuhan Unvrsy, (6), pp. 49-499. LI Drn, CHENG Tao, 994. Knowldg dscovry fro GIS. Th Canadan Confrnc on GIS, Oawa, Canadan. Vol, pp.00-0. urray A T, Esvll-casro V, 998. Clusrng Dscovry Tchnqus for Exploraory Spaal Daa Analyss. Inrnaonal Journal of Gographcal Inforaon Scnc, (5), pp. 43-443. Hla C, 004. Daa nng and nowldg dscovry n prdcv oxcology. h Inrnaonal Worshop on Quanav Srucur-Acvy Rlaonshps n h Huan Halh and Envronnal Scncs, 5(6), pp. 367-383. LIU Yaoln, LIU Yanfang, ZHANG Yu, 004. rdcon of Gross Arabl Land Basd on Gry-arov odl. Goacs and Inforaon Scnc of Wuhan Unvrsy, 9(7), pp. 575-580.