Broadband Mapping 2013

Broadband Mapping 2013

Broadband Mapping 2013 Summary Publisher: The Danish Business Authority A full Danish edition can be downloaded from the website of the Danish Business Authority: www.erst.dk BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 2

Introduction A well-developed digital infrastructure is the foundation for growth and employment in Denmark. To achieve the full potential of today s digital opportunities, it is necessary that all households and businesses are able to get upto-date Internet speed. This applies for example for the use of public and new digital services. Access to a well-developed digital infrastructure is, according to the businesses, the most important framework condition for further digitization. The Danish Government has an ambitious target that by 2020 all households and businesses should have access to at least 100 Mbps download, and at least 30 Mbps upload. In March 2013 The Danish Government introduced the action plan Better broadband and mobile coverage in Denmark 1 with 22 initiatives to promote broadband and mobile coverage in all parts of the country, especially in the areas of Denmark where the access to broadband is not at a sufficient level. The proposal includes among other things an initiative about an improved broadband mapping. The broadband mapping is currently calculated on a postal districts basis and it has not been possible to get a more detailed picture of the local coverage. For this purpose, The Danish Business Authority has completed a pilot project in 2013 to analyze the possibilities of improving the broadband mapping. Therefore, work is currently being carried out with a view to implementing an interactive broadband mapping in 2014, which can provide a far more detailed picture of the coverage with the purpose of creating more transparency on the coverage and give businesses, households and public authorities a detailed picture of the broadband coverage on a local level. Furthermore, it is the intention that the interactive mapping will include both mobile broadband and voice coverage. Calculation of broadband coverage carries the risk of over- or underestimation of the coverage. The method used this year has therefore been adjusted. The reason for this is that the previously used method is based on technologies often supplementing each other in a given postal district. The completed pilot project has shown, that technologies overlap to a higher degree than first assumed. The historical data has thus been adjusted in order to make comparisons on time series possible. It should be noted, that the mapping estimates which speeds the infrastructure supports and not whether the speeds are supplied at the moment. 1 Only available in Danish BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 3

Main results The main results of the Broadband Mapping: It is estimated, that by mid-2013 70 percent of Danish households and businesses had access to infrastructure that could support a 100 Mbps broadband connection. This is an increase from last year's 60 percent. The improvement is attributed mainly to an upgrade of the cable TV network. The upgrade of the cable TV network has particularly impact on upload speeds, where 58 percent of Danish households and businesses by mid- 2013 had access to an upload speed of 30 Mbps. Last year the number was 36 percent. The coverage with 30 Mbps download is estimated to an increase of 2 percentage points from 2012 to 2013. It is estimated, that less than 10,000 households and businesses do not have access to 2 Mbps download, and less than 80,000 households and businesses do not have access to 2 Mbps upload. The main developments are shown in the table below MAIN DEVELOPMENTS COVERAGE 2010-2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 100 Mbps download 23 36 60 70 50 Mbps download 62 67 70 72 30 Mbps download 71 77 79 81 10 Mbps download 90 94 96 96 2 Mbps download 99,7 99,9 99,9 99,9 100 Mbps upload 22 28 30 55 50 Mbps upload 27 32 36 58 30 Mbps upload 28 32 36 58 10 Mbps upload 44 54 75 81 2 Mbps upload 90 94 97 98 BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 MAIN RESULTS 4

METHOD This year, the calculation method has been adjusted compared to the method used in previous years. The reason for this is that the previously used calculation method is based on the assumption that technologies supplement each other. A completed pilot project on finding a new method for the broadband mapping has shown, that technologies overlap to a higher degree than first assumed. The method is adjusted so that the coverage for 2, 10 and 30 Mbps download and the coverage for 2 and 10 Mbps upload are based on the two technologies with highest coverage in each postal district, while 50 and 100 Mbps download and 30, 50 and 100 Mbps upload is based on the technology with highest coverage in each postal district. Furthermore, mobile broadband is included for 2 and 10 Mbps download and 2 Mbps upload in order for the mapping to illustrate the speeds that are possible for most people. The calculation method introduced in 2013 is also used on historical data. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 MAIN RESULTS 5

Download coverage This chapter describes the estimated coverage of broadband with download speeds of at least 100, 30 and 10 Mbps. COVERAGE Coverage refers to the proportion of households and businesses that already have access to the Internet or can get access with a slight dig effort. Coverage of 100 Mbps download Figure 1 Coverage of 100 Mbps download by postal district By mid-2013, around 70 percent of all Danish households and businesses had access to a broadband connection with a download speed of 100 Mbps. This is an increase of 10 percentage points compared to last year. The increase is mainly due to extensive upgrades of the existing cable infrastructure to DOCSIS 3.0; cf. the box on page 12, which allows a download speed of more than 100 Mbps. The upgrading process began in 2011 and with the BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 DOWNLOAD COVERAGE 6

latest upgrades around three quarters of the cable infrastructure has now been upgraded to DOCSIS 3.0. It is still only a small proportion of the broadband subscriptions sold in Denmark that has a marketed speed of 100 Mbps or more. Thus, there is significant untapped potential in the Danish broadband infrastructure. There are significant regional differences in the coverage of 100 Mbps broadband connections. Large parts of South and Central Jutland has more than 80 percent coverage of 100 Mbps connections. Northern Funen, Djursland, south of Køge, Bornholm and a number of smaller islands only had limited access to 100 Mbps connection by mid-2013, cf. Figure 1. Coverage of 30 Mbps download It is estimated, that around 81 percent of all households and businesses in mid- 2013 had access to a broadband connection with a download capacity of 30 Mbps or more. The previous year the figure was 79 percent. Figure 2 Coverage of 30 Mbps download by postal districts BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 DOWNLOAD COVERAGE 7

Coverage of 10 Mbps download In mid-2013 96 percent of all households and businesses had access to a broadband connection with a download capacity of 10 Mbps. This level is almost unchanged from mid-2012. This means that less than 130,000 households and businesses were unable to get a connection with at least 10 Mbps download. 10 Mbps download can be accessed from DSL, cable, fibre and some wireless and mobile technologies. Figure 3 Coverage of 10 Mbps download by postal district As shown in figure 3, the coverage in 520 postal districts is more than 80 percent. There is only one postal district, where the coverage is between 1 and 20 percent. This postal district is Vesterborg near Kalundborg, where the coverage is 6 percent. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 DOWNLOAD COVERAGE 8

Upload Coverage This chapter describes the estimated coverage of broadband with upload speeds of at least 30 and 10 Mbps. Coverage of 30 Mbps upload By mid-2013 58 percent of Danish households and businesses had access to infrastructure that could support a broadband connection with an upload speed of 30 Mbps. The previous year the number was 36 percent. An upload speed of 30 Mbps can be accessed from fibre, upgraded cable TV network and some wireless technologies. In 2012 almost no households and businesses had access to cable TV network, which could support an upload speed of 30 Mbps or more. In 2013 this share had increased to about 40 percent. Figure 4 Coverage of 30 Mbps upload by postal district The geographical access to broadband with a 30 Mbps upload speed is estimated to be almost the same as the access to broadband with a 50 Mbps upload speed. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 UPLOAD COVERAGE 9

Coverage of 10 Mbps upload About 81 percent of all households and businesses in Denmark had access to an estimated upload capacity of 10 Mbps by mid-2013. This is an increase of 6 percentage points compared to the year before. As with the coverage of 100 Mbps download the increase is mainly due to an upgrade of the cable infrastructure. The upload coverage is lower than the equivalent download coverage. The reason for this is that fewer technologies support upload speeds of 10 Mbps or more while almost all technologies support download speeds of at least 10 Mbps. Figure 5 Coverage of 10 Mbps upload by postal district Figure 5 shows that especially in Southern and Central Jutland there is a wide coverage of infrastructure that supports broadband with an upload speed of at least 10 Mbps by mid-2013. The reason for this is, that this area is widely covered with fibre, cf. Figure 8. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 UPLOAD COVERAGE 10

Coverage of broadband infrastructure DSL DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) was the most accessible form of fixed-line broadband in Denmark by mid-2013. DSL DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) is the name of a digital access technology that allows you to use the traditional copper-based telephone connection for data transmission. There are several different variants. ADSL (Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line) is the most common variant of DSL technology. Figure 6 Coverage of DSL by postal district Figure 6 shows that by mid-2013 98 percent of all households and businesses in Denmark had access to a DSL connection with a speed of at least 2 Mbps. Thus, there is a wide coverage in all parts of the country. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 COVERAGE OF BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE 11

Cable The coverage of households and businesses with cable TV infrastructure was a little more than 63 percent in 2013. This is a small increase compared to mid- 2012. CABLE The cable TV network was originally built to transmit television signals. Several providers offer Internet connections via cable networks using the DOCSIS 3 standard, which can facilitate download and upload speeds above 100 Mbps. Unlike DSL technologies, broadband through cable networks is a shared capacity. This means that the connection speed is dependent on the number of simultaneous users. The cable networks were originally designed to distribute television and not for data transfer which explains this difference. This has been taken into account in the Broadband Mapping. Figure 7 Coverage of cable by postal districts Figure 7 shows that the coverage of broadband via cable TV networks is greatest in and around the largest cities in Denmark. In several of the large cities, the cable coverage is the same as the DSL coverage. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 COVERAGE OF BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE 12

Fibre The fibre network in Denmark has been expanded considerably in the recent years. By mid-2013 almost 43 percent of all households and businesses in Denmark had fibre network coverage; an increase compared to 41 percent the year before. The fibre network also includes LAN connections based on fibre. In 81 postal districts fibre connections were not possible. These postal districts include among others Djursland, Northern Funen, North- East- and Southern Zealand, a number of smaller islands and Bornholm. FIBRE AND LAN Fibre: Fibre optic cables transmit data in the form of light, giving a data rate that exceeds the traditional copper connections. In addition to high speeds that can exceed 1 Gbps, fibre links are usually symmetrical. This means that the upload capacity is equivalent to download capacity, whereas other forms of broadband usually have significantly lower upload speeds than download speeds. LAN: Households in housing associations and colleges etc. can share a single Internet connection via an internal LAN (Local Area Network), based on e.g. fibre, fixed wireless or DSL. Local networks can be both wired or wireless. The total capacity of the LAN network is shared among the individual households that are connected to the network. Figure 8 Coverage of fibre by postal district The fibre coverage in Denmark is not uniform. One of the reasons for this is that local utilities are responsible for a large part of the roll out of fibre. A consequence of this is that fibre is prevalent in large parts of Jutland and certain areas of Funen and Zealand. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 COVERAGE OF BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE 13

Mobile broadband MOBILE BROADBAND Mobile broadband includes multiple systems like UMTS/HSPA, CDMA2000 and LTE. The speed of mobile broadband depends on several factors, such as the number of simultaneous users, distance to the mast, whether the user is in motion, weather conditions and if the signal is interrupted by landscape or buildings. Each user on LTE will usually experience download speeds between 5-30 Mbps while a user on UMTS/HSPA and CDMA2000 will experience download speeds between 5-15 Mbps. Figure 9 Coverage of mobile broadband by postal district It is estimated, that almost 22 percent of all households and businesses could have access to mobile broadband with an estimated capacity of 2 Mbps at the same time by mid-2013. 2 In 2012 the same estimation showed a 17 percent coverage in mid- 2012. The capacity in the mobile network is therefore increased significantly. Since mobile broadband is a shared capacity, cf. the box above, it is possible that more than 22 percent can use mobile broadband at the same time, although it may result in lower speeds for the users. 2 In order to compare mobile broadband coverage with the coverage of fixed network, there is developed a capacityadjusted calculation method for the mapping. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 COVERAGE OF BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE 14

Broadband subscriptions This chapter describes advertised broadband speeds, whereas the previous chapters described the coverage. Uptake UPTAKE AND BROADBAND Uptake refers to the number of households and businesses that have purchased a broadband connection that is connected to the Internet. There is no clear definition of broadband. The European Commission defines broadband as a connection with a download capacity of at least 144 kbps, while the OECD has set the limit at 256 kbps. By comparison, "narrowband" such as analogue telephone modem and ISDN have a maximum achievable download capacity of 128 kbps. The chapter 'Broadband Subscriptions' uses the EU Commission's broadband definition of at least 144 kbps. By mid-2013 there were 2,263,000 fixed broadband subscriptions 3 in Denmark. This equals 40.3 broadband connections per 100 citizens. In other words 78 percent of all households and businesses in Denmark had a broadband connection by mid-2013. 3 A fixed broadband connection is defined as a fixed connection with a downstream capacity of at least 144 kbps. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS 15

Figure 10 Uptake of broadband by postal districts Figure 10 shows the number of broadband connections in all the postal districts in Denmark in mid-2013. The figure shows that there is a uniform distribution of broadband connections across the country. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS 16

Figure 11 Fixed broadband subscriptions by technology Figure 11 shows the trend in the uptake of fixed broadband in Denmark over the past ten years sorted by technologies. This shows that the number of fibre subscriptions have increased steadily while the number of DSL subscriptions in the past few years have decreased. In recent years the growth in mobile broadband subscriptions has been significantly greater than the growth in the fixed lines subscriptions. In June 2013 there were almost 1,040,000 mobile broadband subscriptions which were used exclusively for data traffic. Mobile broadband grew by almost 22 percent from the first half of 2012 to the first half of 2013, while fixed broadband lines in the same period increased by 5 percent. In addition, by mid-2013 there were 1,220,000 mobile broadband subscriptions in the form of additional subscriptions to a regular mobile subscription. This is an increase of approximately 14 percent from 1,073,000 by mid-2012. This type of subscription is sold for mobile phones with Internet access. This illustrates the popularity of the mobile phone as a gateway to the internet. Download capacity There is a continuing growth in the advertised speeds of the fixed broadband subscriptions. Subscriptions with an advertised speed between 10 Mbps and 30 Mbps were the most common by mid-2013. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS 17

There are still a relatively limited number of broadband subscriptions with an advertised speed of at least 50 Mbps, although this share has increased significant over the past years. The share of subscriptions with advertised speeds of less than 10 Mbps has decreased over the past year. 63 percent of all subscriptions with an advertised speed of at least 10 Mbps but less than 30 Mbps are DSL subscriptions, 27 percent are cable television network subscriptions, 6 percent fibre subscriptions and 4 percent fixed wireless connections and LAN subscriptions. At the same time nearly 48 percent of the subscriptions with an advertised speed of at least 50 Mbps are based on cable, while 24 percent are based on fibre and 25 percent is based on LAN, which predominantly uses fibre, illustrating the dominance of fibre and cable on the highest speeds. The continuing increase of the advertised download speeds is also evident when you look at the evolution of median download speed, as shown in Figure 12. 20,0 18,0 16,0 17,3 14,0 15,7 12,0 12,6 10,0 9,6 8,0 8,1 8,8 6,0 6,4 7,2 4,0 2,0 3,1 4,6 0,5 0,7 0,7 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,3 1,4 1,6 1,8 Figure 12 Development in advertised upload and download speeds 0,0 2. H. 2007 1. H. 2008 2. H. 2008 Downstream 1. H. 2009 2.H. 2009 1.H. 2010 2.H. 2010 1.H. 2011 2.H. 2011 1.H. 2012 Upstream BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS 18

MEDIAN SPEED The median speed is the speed at which half of the subscriptions have either the same or a higher speed, and half have either the same or a lower speed. The median allows for a way to estimate the typical leading advertised speeds. It is calculated based on the total number of broadband subscriptions in Denmark from the second half of 2007 to the first half of 2012. The median speed for download has increased by 3.1 Mbps in the past year from 17.3 Mbps to 20.4 Mbps which corresponds to a growth of almost 20 percent. In the same period the median speed for upload increased, but only by 0.1 Mbps which corresponds to a growth of almost 8 percent. The difference between the growth of the download and upload is largely due to the fact that most technologies cannot deliver symmetrical speeds. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS 19

International Context According to OECD, Denmark is among the OECD countries with the highest penetration of fixed broadband connections by 2012. Switzerland, the Netherlands and Denmark are the top three with a broadband penetration rate of between 38.8 and 43.4 fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants, which is somewhat higher than the OECD average of 26.3. BROADBAND International context' is based on statistics from the OECD. Therefore, the definition of broadband in this chapter is an Internet connection of at least 256 kbps download capacity. The OECD broadband penetration does not include fixed WiMAX broadband connections. These are included in the mobile/wireless broadband connections. 40 35 30 25 20 Figure 13 Fixed broadband penetration in OECD, end of 2012 15 10 5 0 Switzerl and Netherlands Denmark France Norway Korea Iceland United Kingdom Germany Luxembourg Sweden Bel gium Canada Finland United States Japan New Zealand Austria Estonia Israel Australia Spain Slovenia Italy Ireland Greece Portugal Hungary Czech Republic Poland Slovak Republic Chil e Mexico Turkey DSL Cable Fibre/LAN Others Figure 13 show that Denmark has a fibre penetration below EU countries such as Sweden and Estonia and Asian countries such as South Korea and Japan. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT 20

100 80 60 Figure 14 Mobile/wireless broadband penetration in OECD, end of 2012 40 20 0 Korea Sweden Finland Japan Denmark Norway United States Australia New Zealand Luxembourg Spain Ireland Iceland Israel Poland United Kingdom Switzerl and Netherlands Czech Republic Estonia France Austria Greece Canada Portugal Slovak Republic Germany Italy Slovenia Bel gium Chil e Hungary Turkey Mexico Satellite Fixed Wireless Standard mobile broadband subscriptions Dedicated mobile data subscriptions By the end of 2012, Denmark had the fifth highest penetration of mobile/wireless broadband in the OECD with 97.2 mobile/wireless broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants. This is somewhat lower than for example Finland and Sweden, where the penetration rates were around 105 at the end of 2012. BROADBAND MAPPING 2013 INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT 21