US Presidential Election 2012, Online Betting and Inter-market Arbitrage Opportunities
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1 US Presidential Election 2012, Online Betting and Inter-market Arbitrage Opportunities Dominic Herzog Economics Lunch November 2012
2 Screenshot - Bet Victor
3 Screenshot - Intrade
4 Betting Odds For Next US President (Romney)
5 Betting Odds For Next US President (Romney)
6 I Gambling Markets vs Financial Markets Steven Levitt (2004) Why are Gambling Markets Organised So Differently from Financial Markets? The Economic Journal In both settings investors with heterogeneous beliefs and information seek to profit through trading as uncertainty is resolved over time. Prediction: Polls vs Prediction Markets Rothschild (2009) Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases Public Opinion Quarterly
7 II Market Efficiency: Bookmakers (and Prediction Markets) But, Franck, Verbeek and Nüesch (2010) Prediction Accuracy of Different Market Structures - Bookmakers Versus a Betting Exchange International Journal of Forecasting Analyses of datasets on past events One observation per day Risks (e.g., counterparty risk) and costs (e.g., transaction costs) not inclueded Usage of the term arbitrage
8 Terms Surebets A surebet implies possible inefficiency in the market. The offered odds allow an investor to simultaneously bet on each possible outcome of an event, resulting in a positive profit for the investor. Arbitrage A surebet is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for arbitrage in the online betting market. All costs, risks, barriers and limits must be considered in order to state that arbitrage is actually possible.
9 Step 1 Step 2 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
10 Step 1 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. : From August 27, 2011, until May 11, 2012 Step 2 There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
11 : Events Covered Label Next Party Dem Rep Event description 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Party) 2012 Democratic Presidential Nominee 2012 Republican Presidential Nominee
12 : Data I automatically extracted (every 60 second) the current quotes directly from the platforms. Used Data 4 events Intrade, Betfair and 11 bookmakers 10 Candidates / outcomes
13 Surebets Placing a bet against a bookmaker and selling it at a prediction market. Equal profit independent of the event s result.
14 Surebets - Example Bookmaker $ 1.25 $ 8.75 Romey wins Prediction Market $ 2.86 $ 7.14 surebet (19%) Romey does not win Inter-Market $ 1.25 $ 1.61 $ 7.14 $ 0.00 $ 10.00
15 Surebets - Example Bookmaker $ 1.25 $ 8.75 Romey wins Prediction Market $ 2.86 $ 7.14 surebet (ROI: 19%) Romey does not win Inter-Market $ 1.25 $ 1.61 $ 7.14 $ 0.00 $ 10.00
16 Results : Rep Romney
17 Results : Rep Romney
18 Results : All markets/outcomes
19 Step 1 Step 2 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
20 Step 1 Step 2 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
21 Runoff: Bookmaker Needed information to identify surebets is available in real-time Betting services are available for Swiss residents The user account can be administered in US dollars The information on the investor s individual limit is not provided by the host prior to a deposit
22 Step 1 Step 2 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
23 Step 1 Step 2 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
24 : Actions Runoff (from May 12, 2012, until November 07, 2012) As an experiment, I acted like an arbitrageur in order gain the information I required for checking the. Additional requirements for bookmakers Deposit of money is free of charge Minimum turnover of the deposited money not higher than 1 Identical event
25 Runoff: Presented Data 2 events (Next and Party) Intrade and 7 bookmakers 4 outcomes (Obama, Romney, Democrats, Republicans) Total investment: nearly USD Check markets at least 3 times a day (every 8 hours)
26 Results Runoff: Obama
27 Results Runoff: Democrats
28 Results Runoff: Romney
29 Results Runoff: Republicans
30 Results Runoff: All markets/outcomes
31 33 investments (USD ) mean ROI: 6.82% (USD 1 678)
32 Step 1 Step 2 There exist surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable surebets in inter-market online betting. There exist exploitable arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
33 Runoff: Costs Service costs Transaction costs Cost of capital Taxes Search costs
34 Runoff: Risks Currency risks Counterparty risks Prediction Markets Bookmakers Insolvency
35 Runoff: Market Size Example Wed Nov 07 02:36:58 CET 2012 LAY: 29.2 BACK: ( / ) 20.05% ( / ) 19.76% (72.5 / ) 19.47% ( / ) 19.19% BACK: (4 000 / ) 16.71% BACK: ( / ) 16.71% Profit: Investment: ( / ) Mean Return on Investment: 18.42%
36 There exist profitable and exploitable, pure arbitrage opportunities in inter-market online betting.
37 Who Loses? - Some Bookmakers? Bookmakers announce a price, after which adjustments are small and relatively infrequent Steven Levitt (2004)
38 Who Loses? - Some Investors? Biased behavior and seperating markets High liquidity: New information or noise?
39 Weak Points and Further s Bookmakers are still a black box Information in these markets Only one event Market power / limits
40 Event Study: Election Day
41 Event Study: Oops
42 Event Study: 47%-video
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