A typology of the development of OECD countries: towards more entrepreneurial economics?

Transcription

1 4th ECFED International Workshop Klagenfurt, Austria, July 3-4, A typology of the development of OECD countries: towards more entrepreneurial economics? Rafik Abdesselam* Mathile Aubry** Jean Bonnet*** Patricia Renou-Maissant*** * COACTIS, Université Lumière Lyon 2, France. ** EM Normandie, Métis Research Department, 9, rue Claude Bloch, Caen Cedex 4, France. *** CREM-CNRS UMR 6211, UFR de Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Caen Basse-Normandie, 19 rue Claude Bloch, Caen Cedex, France.

2 - Objectives Conceptualization of the national development according to GDP, Self-employment and Unemployment rates. Identifying social and economic stylized facts that reveal the characteristics of an Entrepreneurial /Administrated Economy. What are entrepreneurial economies? Links with growth? - Methodology Data analysis methods

3 Literature Review (1/2) Entrepreneur, who drives the growth : Creation Growth Entrepreneur precursor/imitator at the beginning of the cycle of the economic activity (Schumpeter, 1911 ; 1939) New-Firm startups : leading indicator of the macroeconomic cycles (Koellinger and Thurik, RES, 2012) NTIC Boom (1990 s) New-firm startups with potential of growth and employment Entrepreneur, product of growth : Growth Creation New market opportunities : input completer, gap filler (Leibenstein, AER, 1968) Alleviates the financial constraints and diminishes the risk aversion (Rampini, JME, 2004)

4 -Entrepreneurial choice Trade off with a salaried position Firms creations : Two main motives «Refugee» effect (push motives) (Evans et Leighton, AER, 1989) Schumpeter effect (pull motives) (Thurik et al., JBV, 2008) The more developed is the country, the fewer business owners, (Kuznets, 1971). Challenged by The Entrepreneurial Economy (end of eighties) New opportunities for entrepreneurship U shaped Curve (Wennekers, et al. 2010)

5 -Build a Typology - 26 OECD countries. - Characterization in 6 classes during Four variables : the growth of the GDP (GDP), the rate of unemployment (UNEMPL), the self-employed share in %age of the population (SEMPLShare) and the growth of this rate (SEMPLgrowth) -Difficulties Measures Specific development of countries National system of innovation GEDI, Global Entrepreneurship Development Index (Acs et al., 2014) Bottlenecks

6 1) Structuration of Entrepreneurial versus Administrated Economies 2) Dynamic development on the period -Pre-financial crisis period: Crisis in The recovery in ) Conclusion

7 ) Structuration of Entrepreneurial/Administrated Economies 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% 4-6% Active Variables: GDP SEMPLShare UNEMPL SEMPLGrowth

8 Analysis of the average evolution of the Entrepreneurial/Administrated economies: Hierarchical tree of the years

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11 2) Dynamic development on the period Pre-financial crisis period: C6 C5 C4 C3 C2 C1

12 Pre-financial crisis period: Entrepreneurial economies, with Development based on competitiveness and attractiveness of production factors, - UNEMPL Unemployment rate significantly lower. Australia, Austria, Ireland, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Slovenia, United Kingdom Industrialized economies, with high strictness of employment and difficulties to maintain their market shares. + SEMPLShare High level of self-employment share. Italy, Japan, Portugal Advanced economies of services progressively opened to entrepreneurship, + UNEMPL High rates of unemployment, Presence of a refugee effect: unemployment leads to new-firm formation and increase of self-employment growth + SEMPLgrowth Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Spain

13 Pre-financial crisis period: Advanced economies of knowledge and services, - SEMPLgrowth Canada, Denmark, United States, Norway, Sweden, Hungary Agricultural economies with a low level of minimum wage + SEMPLShare + SEMPLgrowth Czech Republic, Chile more relatively Industrialized + UNEMPL Poland There exist some barriers to entrepreneurship (Proc) In all the period ( ) High level of unemployment in Chile and Poland and high level of GDP growth

14 2009 Crisis Recession push entrepreneurs but also more bankruptcies and disappearance of self-employed. -Entrepreneurial economies, Australia, New Zealand, Norway, in the average -Preserved from the crisis + SEMPLShare, +GDP, Chile, Poland Unempl, Austria, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands -Delay with crisis? -SEMPLShare Canada, Denmark, France, Hungary, Luxembourg, Portugal, Sweden, United States -Push entrepreneurs?, + SEMPLgrowth GDP, Belgium, Czech Republic, Finland, Germany, Slovenia, UK -Bankruptcies, firms exit, + Unempl - SEMPLgrowth Ireland Spain

15 the recovery UNEMPL and GDP not very discriminating across the classes. Except (Chile and Mexico), +GDP High share of people involved in entrepreneurial activity and an important number of people currently setting up a business reflecting a dynamic entrepreneurship. Except (Ireland, Portugal, Spain),+ UNEMPL -GDP lot of bankruptcies and a slowdown in entrepreneurship dynamics in 2010 and Advanced economies of knowledge and services Recovery in 2012, +GDP 2012.

16 3) Conclusion The first period is globally favorable to entrepreneurship +GDP, + SEMPLShare, - UNEMPL The crisis has impacted the dynamics of entrepreneurship: + UNEMPL, - SEMPLgrowth The recovery is not total: - SEMPLShare, + UNEMPL, Countries severely impacted: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, + UNEMPL - GDP lot of bankruptcies and a slowdown in entrepreneurship dynamics on 2010 and Advanced economies of knowledge and services Recovery in 2012, +GDP 2012.

17 1999: Implementation of the EDEN (Encouragement in the Development of New Companies) program (July): Possibility to accumulate income stemming from the new entrepreneur s company in conjunction with her/his unemployment benefit for up to 18 months. 2002: The ACCRE (financial support social and tax cuts- for unemployed who set up their firms) can be accumulated with EDEN (bonus for the new-firm startup). These modifications strengthened the financial safety of the entrepreneur (August): The law for the economic initiative, called Dutreil s law, aims at making France one of Europe s most favorable country for newfirms startups. 2006: Directive to capitalize the remaining unemployment benefits in the social capital of the firm. 2009: Legislation on the auto-entrepreneur. Very simple registration by internet and taxes and social charges proportional to the turnover (two sectors: trade and other activities).