Early Development Planning Leads to Affordable Systems. NDIA 14 th Annual Systems Engineering Conference Track 4 Early Systems Engineering

Transcription

1 Early Development Planning Leads to Affordable Systems presented at NDIA 14 th Annual Systems Engineering Conference Track 4 Early Systems Engineering October 25-28, 2010 Chuck Kondrack David Peterson Advatech Pacific Inc.

2 Overview Cost and Affordability in Context Early Systems Engineering, Early Developmental Planning and Affordability Early Planning & Development Challenges of Complex Systems Early Systems Engineering, Integrated MS&A Tools and Affordability Integrated MS&A Tool Example - Integrated System and Cost Modeling (ISCM) Tool Suite Affordability Goals vs Should Cost and Cost Growth Containment Early Developmental Planning Affordability Assessment Example Early Developmental Planning and Affordability Assessments Application Foot Print Summary 2

3 Affordability in Context Defense Acquisition Guidebook Affordability: The degree to which the life-cycle cost of an acquisition program is in consonance with the long-range modernization, force structure, and manpower plans of the individual DoD Components, as well as for the Department as a whole DoD Directive , E Cost and Affordability, states: All participants in the acquisition system shall recognize the reality of fiscal constraints. They shall view cost as an independent variable, and the DoD Components shall plan programs based on realistic projections of the dollars and manpower likely to be available in future years. To the greatest extent possible, the Milestone Decision Authority (MDA) shall identify the total costs of ownership, and at a minimum, the major drivers of total ownership costs. The user shall address affordability in establishing capability needs. Reference: Defense Acquisition University, DEFENSE ACQUISITION GUIDEBOOK, Chapter 3 -- Affordability and Life-Cycle Resource Estimates 3

4 Cost and Affordability in Context - DODI Cost: prepare an AoA study plan to assess preliminary materiel solutions, identify key technologies, and estimate life-cycle costs.. The AoA shall focus on identification and analysis of alternatives, measures of effectiveness, cost, schedule, concepts of operations, and overall risk.. At Milestone A, the DoD Component shall submit a cost estimate for the proposed solution(s) identified by the AoA. Affordability: An affordability determination results from the process of addressing cost during the requirements process and is included in each CDD using life-cycle cost or, if available, total ownership cost. Required at Milestone B upon entry into the EMD Phase. So currently, Cost and Affordability are NOT required until the AOA (Cost) and Milestone B (Affordability) well after Early System Engineering and Early Developmental Planning Reference: DODI , Operation of the Defense Acquisition System, 8 December

5 Cost And Affordability in Context Current DoD Direction Should Cost Affordability as a Requirement The two are compatible, but they must be balanced differently across the product life cycle. The emphasis prior to Milestone B should be on defining and achieving affordability targets. Past this point, the emphasis shifts to defining and achieving should-cost estimates. Affordability as a requirement establish quantified goals for unit production cost and sustainment costs for our products, driven by what the Department or Service can pay.. set these goals early and use them to drive design trades and choices about affordable priorities. Affordability analysis is based upon the budgets we expect to have for the product over its life cycle and provides a design constraint on the product we will build, procure, and sustain. Reference: Ashton Carter, USD/AT&L Memo, Should-cost and Affordability, Dated 24 August

6 Air Force Early Systems Engineering and Affordability Capability Planning (DOTMLPF) User Needs, Validated Requirements JCIDS Outputs (if available) Capability shortfall Others ICD DCR Trade Space Characterization JROC AFROC Development Planning (prospective material solutions) Where is Cost Estimating and Affordability in the Process? AoA Study Guidance CCTDs Final Concept Review AFRB Programmatic Analysis First Cost Estimate per DODI at AOA and Affordability Requirement is not until Milestone MSAB! MDD Release Approval AoA JROC AFROC Affordability Assessment Final Initial Concepts Review Candidate Solution Sets Selection Candidate Solution Sets Characterization Concept Characterization Review Initial Based on Information Presented at 12 th Annual NDIA Systems Engineering Conference, San Diego, CA Oct Jeff Loren SAF/AQRS, G. Richard Freeman AF Center for Systems Engineering 6

7 Affordability Assessments during Early Developmental Planning Air Force Early Systems Engineering Process Trade Space Characterization Candidate Solution Sets Characterization Programmatic Analysis Iterative Affordability Assessments Early, Concurrent, Iterative Affordability Assessments Part of the Early Systems Engineering Process and Developmental Planning combined w/ Modeling, Simulation & Analysis (MS&A) Integrated and Iterative MS&A Tools with Collaborative Environment - System (and Subsystem) Performance, Cost, Schedule, and Risk - Historical and Knowledge Databases with Information Analytics - Ongoing, Transparent MS&A Information Control - Programmatic and Technical Accountability Connect and Integrate: PEOPLE PROCESS TOOLS 7

8 Traditional Planning, Development & Design Approach Early Planning & Development Challenges of Complex Systems What is the current planning, development & design process? IPT Plan/Develop/Design Mission/System Requirements Operational Assumptions, Conditions & Constraints Size, weight, power New technology insertion Performance Schedule Cost/Affordability F e e d b a c?? k? Satellite Bus Analysis/Design Propulsion Analysis/Design Payload Analysis/Design Launch/Orbital Analysis Operations/Sustainment Analysis Cost/Schedule/Risk Analysis Communication & Approval Challenges Slow And Expensive! 8

9 Integrated Planning, Development & Design Approach Improvement to Early Planning & Development Challenges of Complex Systems Integrated iterative MS& A tools provide: Integrated MS&A Tools System/Sub-system Feedback Mission/System Requirements Operational Assumptions, Conditions and Constraints Size, weight, power New technology insertion Performance Schedule Cost/Affordability IPT Networked Collaborative Engineering Historical & Knowledge Databases Integration Core Module User Interface Module Bus Module Payload Module Propulsion Module Launch/Orbital Module Operations & Sustainment Module Cost/Schedule Risk Module In Days / Weeks Not Months Potential Solutions 9

10 Early Systems Engineering, Integrated MS&A Tools and Affordability Capability Planning (DOTMLPF) User Needs, Validated Requirements JCIDS Outputs (if available) Capability shortfall Others ICD DCR Trade Space Characterization JROC AFROC Development Planning (prospective material solutions) ISCM Tool Integrated MS&A Tool Suite Affordability Assessment AoA Study Guidance CCTDs AFRB Programmatic Analysis MDD Release Approval Final Concept Review MSA AoA JROC AFROC Integrated System and Cost Modeling (ISCM) Tool development sponsored and supported by AFRL/RZST and AFRL/RVES Initial Concepts Review Candidate Solution Sets Selection Candidate Solution Sets Characterization Concept Characterization Review Based on Information Presented at 12 th Annual NDIA Systems Engineering Conference, San Diego, CA Oct Jeff Loren SAF/AQRS, G. Richard Freeman AF Center for Systems Engineering 10

11 Integrated System and Cost Modeling (ISCM) Tool Suite Overview Rapid Trade Space Optimization for the Complete Life-cycle in Days / Weeks Launch Vehicles Space Vehicles Conceptual Design Trade Studies Design Spacecraft / Satellites (Performance Driven) Enhanced SMAD Vehicle Design Space Vehicle Design Propulsion Systems Space Vehicle Propulsion Trajectory Analysis (POST) Orbit Propagation Radiation Exposure Existing LV Detector Response Database DDT&E Costs Life Cycle Cost Forecasts & Schedules TRL Cost Growth & Risk Development & Production Costs DDT&E Costs Life Cycle Cost Forecasts & Schedules TRL Cost Growth & Risk Operations & Maintenance Costs Concept of Operations (ConOps) Mission Infrastructure Resources and Schedules SMAD CESMO Labor Model Historical/Knowledge Database 11

12 Integrated & Iterative Affordability Assessments through ISCM Tool Suite Performance - Cost - Schedule - Risk Links system performance with total Life Cycle Cost estimates Provides trade study traceability so that process is repeatable Addresses the principal cost/affordability drivers Technology maturity and cost growth System design and complexity Mission requirements and constraints Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) concepts Operations and Sustainment (O&S) concepts Change in Production Quantities Ordered Addresses key aspects of a system acquisition and management Planning & Development Technology (existing and proposed) Engineering, Design & Manufacturing Production Operations & Sustainment Disposal Level of risk identified with each estimate 12

13 Affordability, Should Cost and the Decision-Cost Curve Iterative System Affordability Assessments Should Cost Bottoms Up ISCM Tool Suite Early Systems Engineering & Developmental Planning 13

14 Probability Affordability Goals vs Should Cost and Cost Growth Containment Iterative System Affordability Assessments Set the Cost Goal at ATP Should Cost Bottoms Up Control Cost Growth System Acquisition Milestones and Reviews % ATP PDR CDR FCA Early Systems Engineering and Developmental Planning $3,500 $4,000 $4,500 $5,000 $5,500 $6,000 $6,500 $7,000 $7,500 $8,000 $8,500 Cost (Billions$) ATP PDR CDR FCA 80% N M Nunn- McCurdy (NM) Current and past Initial Cost Goals at ATP have resulted in unacceptable Cost Growth Need to establish a more realistic Cost Goal at ATP w/ Affordability Assessments Collapsing the curves reduces overall Cost Variability (Growth) for more manageable acquisition programs (Added Benefit: Potentially eliminates Nunn-McCurdy violations) 14

15 Cost Early Development Planning Affordability Assessment for System Block Upgrades Iterative Affordability Assessment using ISCM Tool Suite provided real time input for Early Development Planning $4,000.0 M $3,750.0 M $3,500.0 M $3,250.0 M $3,000.0 M $2,750.0 M $2,500.0 M $2,250.0 M $2,000.0 M $1,750.0 M $1,500.0 M $1,250.0 M $1,000.0 M $750.0 M $500.0 M $250.0 M $.0 M Funding Profile for Program Changes Desired/Expected Funding Profile without Peaks and Valleys Facility Non-Recurring Block 1 Dev. Block 2 Dev. Block 2+ Dev. Production O&M 15

16 Developmental Planning and Affordability Assessments Foot Print Guidance National Security Strategy; National Military Strategy; National Defense Strategy; Guidance for the Development of the Force; JOpsC; AF Operating Concepts; AFSPC/CC Vision Assessment Joint CBA JOpsC AF CRRA AF Operating Concepts AFSPC IPP AF Functional Concepts Output Decision/ Action Joint Gaps/Shortfalls Way ahead recommendation Initial Capability Document (ICD) Concept/Material Dev Decision Non-Material Solution Information Technology Upgrade Breakout/Transformational Analysis Guidance AF Gaps/Shortfalls AF Planning & Programming Guidance POM Guidance AOA Solution Recommendation AFSPC POM Informs AFSPC Gaps/Shortfalls Long Range Recapture Plan Development Planning S&T Guidance (to AFMC) Enabling Concept Decision Point ICD DAB Material Solution Analysis Material Development Decision A Pre-Systems Acquisition Milestone Review DAB CDD Technology Development B Program Initiation CPD Engineering & Manufacturing Development Post- PDR A Post- CDR A Operating Concept C DAB LRIP/IOT&E Systems Acquisition IOC Production & Deployment FRP Decision Review FOC Operations & Support DAB = Defense Acquisition Board for A, B, & C Milestone Reviews Sustainment Decision Point if PDR is not conducted before milestone B Ref: AFSPC, High Frontier The Journal for Space, Cyberspace & Missile Professionals, Volume 6, Number 1, November 2009, Requirements Generation: The Crucial First Step to Delivering Warfighter Capability, Col Jay A. Moody, USAF, Deputy Director of Requirements, HQ Space Command. 16

17 Summary Currently, Cost and Affordability are NOT required until the AOA (Cost) and Milestone B (Affordability) well after Early System Engineering and Early Developmental Planning DoD (Ashton Carter) Direction: Emphasis prior to Milestone B should be on defining and achieving affordability targets. Past this point, the emphasis shifts to defining and achieving shouldcost estimates. Affordability Assessments combined w/ Integrated MS&A Tools can provide significant insight during Early Systems Engineering and Developmental Planning to establish System Affordability Targets The ISCM Tool Suite is an example of an integrated MS&A Tool currently in use that is supporting Early Systems Engineering And Developmental Planning ISCM Tool Suite details presented by Dr. Deganit Armon during Track 5 - Modeling & Simulation in Acquisition on Wednesday (26 October 2011) at 10:50 am 17

18 Contact Information Name: Charles Kondrack Company: Advatech Pacific Inc. Phone Number: Ext