The Data on Cigarette Advertising and Youth Smoking: 1993

Transcription

1 The Data on Cigarette Advertising and Youth Smoking: 1993 Perception: Youth smoking is increasing because of cigarette advertising. Facts: Government data indicate the reverse: youth smoking has steadily declined since 1975, even though industry advertising has increased. R.J. Reynolds Tobacco Company. Fact Sheet: Perceptions and Facts About Youth Smoking

2 The Fatal Flaw Youth only smoke a few cigarette brands. If you lump all brands together, it will dilute out any effect of advertising.

3 Youth Cigarette Brand Preferences: High School Seniors, 1998 Source: Monitoring the Future survey, 1998

4 BRAND-SPECIFIC DATA CHANGED THE TOBACCO FIELD Source: Pollay et al. The last straw? Cigarette advertising and realized market shares among youths and adults, Journal of Marketing 1996; 60:1-16.

5 BRAND-SPECIFIC DATA CHANGED THE TOBACCO FIELD Advertising Elasticity of Demand Youth brand market shares: 0.94 Adult brand market shares: 0.28 Source: Pollay et al. The last straw? Cigarette advertising and realized market shares among youths and adults, Journal of Marketing 1996; 60:1-16.

6 These data have provided strong evidence that cigarette advertising influences youth smoking and have led to major policy changes 1998: Master Settlement Agreement Elimination of billboard, transit and outdoor tobacco advertising 2002: Voluntary elimination of advertising in magazines by Philip Morris and R.J. Reynolds 2009: Congress gives FDA authority to regulate cigarette advertising

7 Existing Research on Alcohol Company Targeting of Youth As of 2008 In this paper, we study the effects of youth readership, price of advertisements, and audience size on alcohol advertising in 35 major magazines. Using count data models, the results indicate significant effects for price, audience size, and adult demographics, but fail to support claims that alcohol advertisers target adolescent readers. Source: Nelson JP, Young DJ. Effects of youth, price, and audience size on alcohol advertising in magazines. Health Economics 2008; 17:

8 Negative Binomial Model Coefficients for Percentage Youth Readership Beer: 0.06 Wine: Spirits: 0.04 SE = 0.04 SE = 0.03 SE = 0.03 Source: Nelson JP, Young DJ. Effects of youth, price, and audience size on alcohol advertising in magazines. Health Economics 2008; 17:

9 Are Youth Equally Likely to Be Drinking These Two Brands?

10 Premise We cannot determine the relationship between alcohol advertising and youth drinking unless we study both variables at the brand level.

11 The Need for a Brand-Specific Research Agenda: From Tobacco to Alcohol Michael Siegel, MD, MPH Professor Department of Community Health Sciences Boston University School of Public Health

12 Disclosure Statement Funding for the research discussed in this presentation was received from the National Institute on Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse (NIAAA). Grant R01 AA

13 Why are there no data on youth alcohol brand consumption? It has been assumed that there are too many alcohol brands to measure There are well over 300 popular alcohol brands It has been assumed that it would take too long to ascertain consumption of each brand

14 Keys to Developing a Successful Method to Measure Youth Alcohol Brand Consumption Took advantage of the internet and youths facility with online surveys and forms Used drop-down menus with lists of brands and simple check boxes Used piping technology that populates question fields based on respondents previous answers

15 The Youth Alcohol Brand Survey Michael Siegel, MD, MPH Amanda J. Ayers William DeJong, PhD Erin K. Fortunato, MPH Alison B. Albers, PhD David L. Rosenbloom, PhD Timothy Heeren, PhD Boston University School of Public Health Craig Ross, MBA Joshua Ostroff Virtual Media Resources, Natick, MA Sergei Rodkin, PhD Knowledge Networks, Inc. Timothy S. Naimi, MD, MPH Section of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine Boston University Medical Center David H. Jernigan, PhD Rajiv N. Rimal, PhD; Dina L.G. Borzekowsi, EdD, EdM, MA Alisa A. Padon, MBE; Raimee H. Eck, MPH, MPA Rebecca Ramirez, MPH Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

16 METHODS - Design Used a pre-recruited internet panel developed by Knowledge Networks Knowledge Networks is the only U.S. company that maintains an internet panel that was created using a national probability sample Households recruited through random-digit-dialing and addressbased sampling About 50,000 adult and 3,000 youth panel members

17 METHODS - Sample Recruited 1,031 youth ages from Knowledge Networks existing internet panel who had consumed alcohol in past 30 days Sent invitation Initial screening questionnaire Online consent form $25 gift incentive

18 METHODS - Sample year-olds: Recruited directly from panel via invitation year-olds: Recruited by seeking consent of parents on panel

19 METHODS Response Rate Younger Youth (ages 13-17) Parent completion rate: 49.2% Screening completion rate: 94.0% Survey completion rate: 95.9% Overall response rate: 44.4% Older Youth (ages 18-20) Screening completion rate: 46.2% Survey completion rate: 93.8% Overall response rate: 43.4%

20 METHODS Comparison of Respondents and Non-Respondents (18-20 year-olds) Respondents (%) Non-Respondents (%) Race/Ethnicity White, nonhispanic 54.8% 43.6% Hispanic 22.5% 23.5% Black 13.0% 22.2% Other 9.7% 10.7% Yes 89.4% 81.0% No 10.6% 19.0% Internet access

21 METHODS Survey Instrument Total of 898 alcohol brands Beer: 132 brands Wine/Champagne: 306 brands Flavored malt beverages: 62 brands Alcoholic energy drinks: 10 brands Bourbon: 23 brands Brandy: 15 brands Cognac: 9 brands Gin: 27 brands Rum: 54 brands Scotch: 25 brands Tequila: 33 brands Vodka: 86 brands Whiskey: 29 brands Cordials/Liqueurs: 77 brands Grain alcohol: 5 brands Low-end fortified wine: 5 brands

22 METHODS Survey Instrument For each alcoholic beverage category, respondents checked which brands they had consumed in past 30 days Example: During the past 30 days, when you were drinking Whiskey, what brands did you drink? Bushmills Irish Whiskey Canadian Mist Whiskey Crown Royal Whiskey (including Crown Royal Special Reserve Whiskey) Forty Creek Canadian Whiskeys Jameson Irish Whiskey Phillips Union Whiskey Seagram s Whiskey (including Seagram s VO Canadian and Seagram s VO Gold Canadian) Tullamore Dew Irish Whiskey I did not have any drinks from this category during the past 30 days. Other:

23 METHODS Analysis Data were weighted to reflect: Selection probabilities Oversampling of minority communities Non-response to panel recruitment Panel attrition Post-stratification based on Current Population Survey: age, gender, race/ethnicity, household income

24 RESULTS Top 10 Brands By: 30-Day Consumption Prevalence and Volume-Based Market Share Rank Consumption Prevalence Market Share 1 Bud Light (27.9%) 2 Smirnoff Malt Beverages (17.0%) Budweiser (3.0%) 3 Budweiser (14.6%) Smirnoff Malt Beverages (2.9%) 4 Smirnoff vodka (12.7%) Coors (2.6%) 5 Coors Light (12.7%) Miller Lite (2.3%) 6 Jack Daniel s bourbon (11.4%) Corona Extra Light (2.2%) 7 Corona Extra (11.3%) Natural Light (2.1%) 8 Mike s (10.8%) Coors Light (2.0%) 9 Captain Morgan rum (10.4%) Corona Extra (2.0%) 10 Absolut vodka (10.1%) Keystone Light (2.0%) " Bud Light (6.4%)

25 RESULTS Top 10 Brands By: Age Rank (%) (%) (%) 1 Bud Light (30.7) " Light (24.6) Bud Bud Light (29.7) 2 Heineken (17.7) Coors Light (12.5) Smirnoff Malt Beverages (23.5) 3 Budweiser (14.3) Mikes (12.2) Smirnoff Vodkas (16.9) 4 Corona Extra (12.2) Budweiser (11.9) Jack Daniels Whiskeys (16.8) 5 Mikes (10.9) Smirnoff Malt Beverages (10.5) Budweiser (16.7) 6 Captain Morgan Rums (9.1) Corona Extra (9.9) Coors Light (14.7) 7 Smirnoff Malt Beverages (8.5) Smirnoff Vodkas (9.6) Absolut Vodkas (13.9) 8 Baileys Irish Cream Liqueurs (7.9) Captain Morgan Rums (7.5) Bacardi Rums (12.8) 9 Dailys Cocktails (7.9) Heineken (7.4) Captain Morgan Rums (12.8) 10 E&J Gallo Brandy (6.8) Jose Cuervo Tequilas (7.4) Corona Extra (12.1)

26 RESULTS Top 10 Brands By: Gender Rank Male (%) Female (%) 1 Bud Light (28.1) 2 Budweiser (17.0) Smirnoff Malt Beverages (22.7) 3 Jack Daniels Whiskeys (14.2) Mikes (14.4) 4 Coors Light (13.7) Smirnoff Vodkas (13.3) 5 Heineken (13.2) Budweiser (12.2) 6 Captain Morgan Rums (13.1) Coors Light (11.7) 7 Smirnoff Vodkas (12.2) Absolut Vodkas (11.3) 8 Smirnoff Malt Beverages (11.6) Corona Extra (11.2) 9 Corona Extra (11.3) Bacardi Malt Beverages (10.3) 10 Blue Moon (10.2) Jose Cuervo Tequilas (9.5) " Bud Light (27.7)

27 RESULTS Top 10 Brands By: Race/Ethnicity Rank Non-Hispanic White (%) 1 Bud Light (26.6) 2 Coors Light (15.0) Smirnoff Malt Beverages (25.7) 3 Budweiser (14.5) Ciroc Vodkas (21.4) 4 Smirnoff Malt Beverages (13.7) Heineken (20.3) 5 Smirnoff Vodkas (12.4) Bud Light (19.3) 6 Jack Daniels Whiskeys (11.9) 1800 Tequilas (18.4) 7 Captain Morgan Rums (11.7) Budweiser (17.3) 8 Mikes (10.3) Seagrams Gins (14.8) 9 Absolut Vodkas (10.2) Jack Daniels Whiskeys (14.7) 10 Blue Moon (10.0) Mikes (13.5) " Black (%) Hennessy Cognacs (30.2)

28 Factors that Might Explain Brands Uniquely Popular among Black Youth Brand Factor Hennessy Cognacs Tupac, Hennessy lyrics: They wanna knows my role model, it's in a brown bottle. Yo what's our motto? Hennessy Even the cops can't stop us, my enemies flip when they see me drink a fifth of that Hennessy. Eminem, Shake That lyrics: Let me tell you how I made her leave with me. Conversation and Hennessy. I've been to the mountain top. 50 Cent, You Heard Me lyrics: Shorty the Henny got me feeling right. Ya heard me? Ciroc Vodkas Spokesperson: P. Diddy Meek Mill, House Party lyrics: Ciroc all on my table in the living room. Chris Brown ft Lil Wayne, I Can Transform Ya lyrics: Ciroc and lime, give it a lil time, and she can transform like Optimus Prime.

29 Factors that Might Explain Brands Uniquely Popular among Black Youth Brand 1800 Tequilas Factor Ab Soul, Bohemian Grove lyrics: you. I'm just living how I'm living. Hennessy and Coke. We mixing dark and light like the 1800s. And we getting blunted, what it do? Yes, indeed. Snoop Dogg, 1800 lyrics: 1800, I'm blunted, fa cert Snoop D-O-dub', turn that up. I don't buy bub, tequila got me goin. Seagrams Gins Petey Pablo, Freak-A-Leak lyrics: Not a problem, you know I do it cause I love ya. Now I got to give a shout out to Seagram's gin cause I drink it, and they payin for it. Snoop Dogg, Gin and Juice lyrics: Rollin down the street, smokin ENDO, sippin on gin and juice. Laid back [with my mind on my money and my money on my mind]. Now that I got me some Seagram's gin.

30 What Alcohol Brands Do African American Youth Consume? Brand Prevalence of Use Hennessy Cognac 30.2% THE NUMBER ONE BRAND

31 Top Alcohol Brand Expenditures in Magazines with High African American Underage Youth Audience, 2008

32 Top Alcohol Brand Expenditures in Magazines with High African American Underage Youth Audience, 2008 Source: Center on Alcohol Marketing and Youth (CAMY). Exposure of African-American Youth to Alcohol Advertising, 2008 and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health: CAMY, 2012.

33 Two Other Advantages of Measuring Youth Alcohol Use at the Brand Level Better classification of alcoholic beverages types (previous surveys may have been inaccurate) More accurate assessment of alcohol use itself

34 Result: Youths are Not Able to Classify Beverages Correctly Examples of Misclassification Misclassified as BEER Misclassified as FLAVORED ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGE

35 More Accurate Assessment of Alcohol Use Itself??? Typical alcohol use surveys account for less than 60% of per capita alcohol consumption as measured by sales data. Casswell et al. found that asking subjects to report the types of alcohol they consume helped improve their ability to account for 94% of per capita alcohol consumption.1 Casswell S, Huckle T, Pledger M. Survey data need not underestimate alcohol consumption. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research 2002; 26:

36 More Accurate Assessment of Alcohol Use Itself??? Average drinks per month, underage youth drinkers, using typical alcohol consumption measures (overall consumption, past 30 days): 19.4 drinks Average drinks per month, underage youth drinkers, using brand-specific alcohol consumption measures (brand consumption, past 30 days): 60.9 drinks