Innovation in Sustainability Benchmarking in Commercial Real Estate

Transcription

1 Innovation in Sustainability Benchmarking in Commercial Real Estate Dr Peter Hobbs, IPD Research Jess Stevens, IPD Product Management Smart, Connected and Green Maastricht University, March 25 th Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1

2 Agenda 1. ESG analysis of liquid asset classes 2. Risk management challenges for private asset classes 3. Real Estate benchmarking & analysis 4. Relationships between building quality and performance 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

3 Financial to Values based Investing Degree of impact on risk-adjusted returns Best-in-class Social Impact investing Core SRI Investor Exclusion on multiple criteria ESG integration Mainstream RI Investor Exclusion on a single criterion Active ownership Mainstream Investor Investor type Source: Marc Hutten, Global ESG Leadership Forum 2013 ESG Integration across Asset Classes 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3

7 Environmental Benchmarks Are Often Used to Explore Whether These Investments Are At Least As Good As The Market MSCI Global Environment Index and ACWI, Source: MSCI 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 7

9 Alternatives now represent 20% of investor portfolios, with Real Estate being the Favoured Alternative Asset Class Alternative Allocations Across Regions Global % 30 Regional 24% 35% Real Estate Infrastructure Hedge Funds 15 21% 15% 5% Private Equity Other Note: Based on 138 asset owners in Survey Universe. Calculated on % of real estate assets in each category, not number of asset owners. Sources: IPD; MSCI 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 9

10 Alternatives are Set to Continue their Dramatic Growth Global Alternative Assets Projections to 2020 USD Trillion % pa % pa 6.4%pa Source: PwC based on Towers Watson, Preqin, The City UK and Hedge Fund Research 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 10

11 Real Estate is a Favoured Asset Class, but it is Dripping With Issues * Objectives and execution options can create a disjointed investment process Board of Trustees/CIO Real Estate Dept Real Estate Managers Theory Allocation Strategy Implementation $ $ Reality Limited clarity on Real Estate Risks Misaligned policy benchmarks *Roger Urwin (2013) Private markets A dynamic approach to thematic investing, FT Seminar, November Cannot see impact of property specific factors Source: IPD 2014 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 11

12 Real Estate Risk Management is Starting to Improve, But Challenges Remain: The Case of Benchmarks Use of Benchmarks for AO Real Estate Exposure Global Regional Note: Based on % of asset owners in each category, not value of real estate, and for the 110 AO s for which benchmark information is available Sources: IPD; MSCI 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 12

13 80% of Asset Owners have Some Benchmark Misalignment Alignment of real estate benchmarks with investment strategy Global Regional Note: Based on % of asset owners in each category, not value of real estate. Benchmark alignment based on those for which a Policy benchmark is in place Sources: IPD; MSCI 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 13

15 Real Estate Benchmarks and Risk Analysis Tends to be Based on Appraised Assets Composition of global real estate investment market, 2012 $9 trillion GLOBAL SIZE $0.5 trillion TRADES Trades capture 5% of the market $5.4 trillion APPRAISED INSTITUTIONAL Institutional appraisals cover 54% of the market $4.5 trillion UNMEASURED INSTITUTIONAL Estimates of the unmeasured market leading to global total of $9tn Note: Based on the 24 markets in the IPD Global Index, so excluding China, Brazil, India and other markets. End 2012 estimates with Trades being based on average of five years to end 2012 Sources: IPD; DTZ; RCA 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 15

16 Appraised Data has Limitations for Measuring Market Risk Valuation and Transaction based Volatility, 10 years to end month SD (%) 25 Valuation Based Index Volatility Transaction Linked Index Volatility Ireland Swiss Norway UK Denmark Sweden France NL Germany Note: Based on annual volatility over 10 years with quarterly observations, to end 2012 Source: IPD 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 16

17 But Appraisals Enable Powerful Diagnostics on a Large Number of Asset Specific Metrics Over Time Illustration of Property specific metrics monitored in IPD Database Source: IPD 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 17

18 Enabling Profound Insights Into Drivers of Performance and Risk: the Case of Lease Length and Value Change Capital Growth by WALT: USA, UK, France and Germany, 2012 Value Change (%) 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% WALT byd 5 yrs at 5 yrs at 4 yrs at 3 yrs <= 2 yrs Note: Based on office properties. Source: IPD 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 18

20 A Key Challenge is to Collect Robust Sets of Environmental Data to Compare with Financial Performance High ESG Relationships Measurement of ESG dimensions at both the Corporate and Property Level Comparison of ESG dimensions and financial performance Source: IPD Low Financial High 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 20 20

21 For Real Estate there is Increasing Momentum for Capturing Wrapper and Asset Level ESG Metrics Increasing analysis at individual property and corporate levels Vehicle / Wrapper analysis Asset level Vehicle/Wrapper Environmental Opportunities in Green Building 33.5% Energy Efficiency 33.5% Social Product safety & quality 27.9% Property / Portfolio Analysis Governance Corporate Governance 5% Energy Water Waste Quality Accessibility Adaptability Flood risk Source: IPD; MSCI 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 21 21

22 It Seems There are Some Clear Relationships Between Environmental Quality and Performance (% pa) 16% Australia Office Returns by Quality, Return Spread Green Star All Office 12% 8% 10.3% 9.7% 4% 0% 4% 8% Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Source: IPD 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 22 22

23 These Trends Are Starting To Be Seen Across A Number of Markets Total Returns over most recent period, Australia, Canada, France, UK (% pa) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 9.6% Green rated (BREEAM) 7.6% Income Return Capital Growth Total Return 10.3% All property Green offices (Green Star) 9.7% All office 13.3% Green rated (BOMA BESt and LEED) 12.7% 5.2% 3.8% All property Green officeshigh end non green offices UK (Q3 2013) Australia (Annualised returns to Dec 2013) Canada (Q3 2013) France (to Dec 2012) Source: IPD 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 23 23

24 Increasing Granularity, and Value, of Insights Australian Office Markets: WALE and Vacancy, December % 10% NABERS Office Energy Stars Market Vacancy Rate (%) 8% 6% 4% Secondary Office All Office NABERS Office Energy 4 6 Stars Prime Office Green Star Office Source: IPD 2% Weighted Average Lease Expiry (years) 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 24 24

25 Helping Drill Into Drivers of Performance And Risk Green Star Rated Offices vs. All Offices on Selected Metrics, 2013 Basic Rent Opex +7% +6% NOI +19% Capex 29% Vacancy 2ppt WALE +39% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Notes: Compares the relative performance of Green Star offices against the broader office market where Annual Basic Rent, Annual Operating Expenses (Opex), Annual Net Operating Income (NOI), and Annual Capital Expenditure (Capex) are in Australia dollars per square metre; Vacancy Rate in percentage; and Weighted Average Lease Expiry (WALE) in years. Source: GBCA; IPD 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 25

26 Complemented By Other Research Into Sustainability and Investment Performance Building characteristics with perceived impact on market value (Switzerland, Germany, UK and Rest of World) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Adaptability/flexibility Accessibility of location Known contamination and/or pollution Flood (risk and defences) Certification (voluntary and statutory) Energy (performance and source) Water Construction (use of sustainable material) Other (fire risk and green leases) Occupier health and well being Waste 29% 27% 39% 48% 45% 52% 62% 62% 62% 61% 82% Note: Based on RICS members surveyed on the updake of VIP responses, 43% response rate. Source: Sayce, S., Lorenz, D., Michl, P., and Lützkendorf, T., (forthcoming) RICS members survey on the uptake of VIP 13, work in progress 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 26 26

27 And The Impacts on Different Dimensions of Valuation Impact of Certification on dimensions of value Rental bid Yield Combination Switzerland Germany UK and ROW voluntary certification statutory certification voluntary certification statutory certification voluntary certification statutory certification 34.5% 51.9% 22.2% 33.3% 31.6% 41.7% 17.2% 11.1% 26.7% 27.3% 10.5% 25.0% 48.3% 37.0% 51.1% 39.4% 57.9% 33.3% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% Note: Based on RICS members surveyed on the updake of VIP responses, 43% response rate. Source: Sayce, S., Lorenz, D., Michl, P., and Lützkendorf, T., (forthcoming), RICS members survey on the uptake of VIP 13, work in progress 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 27 27

28 But There is a Need for More, and More Consistent, Data Capture UNEP FI Property Working Group An Investors Perspective on Environmental Metrics for Property (2011) Sustainability Metrics Translation and impact on property investment and management (Forthcoming) What environmental metrics? How best engage investors? How best to report? How to integrate? How to keep simple? 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 28 28

29 A Major Priority Is To Understand and Compare Sustainability Metrics Across Global Markets Illustration of quality of readily available Environmental and Financial Real Estate Metrics Across Markets High Australia Environmental Italy Spain Netherlands Canada South Africa Germany France USA UK Sweden Low Financial Note: Ratings based on Robustness and Breadth of coverage as follows: 1. Financial: Lease and Building (Financial and Cost) level data. 2. Environmental: Environmental Certification and Building Specific Environmental Attribute data 2013 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com High

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