FLURISK Development of a risk assessment methodological framework for potentially pandemic influenza strains. Ilaria Capua
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1 FLURISK Development of a risk assessment methodological framework for potentially pandemic influenza strains Ilaria Capua
2 Overall objective Development and validation of a methodological risk assessment framework capable of assessing the pandemic potential of new influenza viruses or viral subtypes emerging in animals EFSA does not require the assessment of the pandemic potential of specific viruses or subtypes (i.e. H5N1) but encourages the consortium to develop a general methodological framework enabling the assessment of the pandemic potential of ANY influenza virus selected.
3 How can we grade the pandemic risk posed by a given animal influenza A virus? Central questions What is the current knowledge on the influenza virus etiology and epidemiology in pigs, birds and other animals (i.e. cats, dogs, horses)? What are the scientific community and institutional stakeholders doing in terms of influenza virus surveillance, monitoring and control? What are the scientific gaps still present to be addressed? What are the characteristics which an animal influenza A virus must possess to be potentially pandemic?
4 Main project actions Reviews of the influenza virus epidemiology and gene pool in pigs, birds and other animals and humans > WP1 Develop and validation of a risk assessment framework with pathways and links between the different elements, to evaluate the pandemic potential of influenza viruses > WP2 Identify relevant gaps in monitoring of influenza viruses in animals and humans, where data would be needed for the RA framework, and constraints of data sharing > WP3, WP4 Promote research areas > WP3
5 Project Consortium
6 European project partners Coordinator: Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie (IZSVe) ITALY P1: Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratory Agency (AHVLA) UNITED KINGDOM P2: Royal Veterinary College (RVC) UNITED KINGDOM P3: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) NETHERLANDS P4: Pasteur Institute (IP)- FRANCE P5: Ghent University (UGent) BELGIUM
7 Associated partners : External partners Influenza Division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) External Advisors: European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) European Centers for Disease Control (ECDC) World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), World Health Organization (WHO) OFFLU
8 Project duration: 20 months (started in February 2012) Medical and veterinary virologists, epidemiologists, statisticians and risk modelers will establish multidisciplinary working groups and panel of experts 4 highly integrated Work Packages (WP) with clearly defined tasks, milestones and deliverables and involving several partners each.
9 Core Idea The core idea of the project is to address the call objectives by complementing Existing initiatives with European expertise, with the final aim of generating a GLOBAL EFFORT. Existing Initiatives 1) CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool under development and validation
10 Methodology 2) RIVM (NE) has developed a ranking tool to prioritising diseases, employing novel methodologies (i.e. multi-criteria analysis) for the weighting and scoring of risks categories 3) AHVLA (UK) has in place a disease prioritisation tool which ranks exotic and endemic animal diseases
11 FLURISK propose to COMBINE the most appropriate methods from the CDC risk assessment framework, the methods proposed by RIVM (Havelaar et al.), and other methods used by the risk assessment team (AHVLA), to develop the EFSA RAF.
12 The integrated CDC-EFSA RAF will represent an unique example of global effort to address the questions: What are the characteristics which an animal virus must possess to be potentially pandemic? How can we grade/rank the pandemic risk posed by a given animal virus?
13 The RAF is NOT intended to be a prediction tool (i.e. the highest scoring virus is not to be interpreted as the next pandemic virus) but... is intended to provide an open, documented and systematic approach for identifying and evaluating influenza viruses with pandemic potential by considering all known relevant risk factors.
14 Thanks Marco De Nardi (Project Manager) William Dundon (WP4 leader)
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