Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

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1 Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment General Overview National Preparedness Directorate/National Integration Center April, 2015

2 Overview Background on the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Explain the THIRA process and how it is part of the overall National Preparedness System Review the steps of the THIRA process Benefits of the THIRA process 2

it is part of the overall National Preparedness System Review

3 Presidential Policy Directive 8/PPD-8 Aimed at strengthening the security and resilience of the United States through systematic preparation for the threats that pose the greatest risk to the security of the nation. National preparedness is the shared responsibility of all levels of government Aimed at facilitating an integrated, all-of-nation, capabilitiesbased approach to preparedness. National Preparedness Goal A secure and resilient nation with the capabilities required across the whole community to prevent, protect against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from the threats and hazards that pose the greatest risk. 3

National preparedness is the shared responsibility of all levels of government Aimed at facilitating an integrated, all-of-nation, capabilitiesbased

4 PPD-8 Links a Range of National Efforts It is organized around key elements: The ends we wish to achieve National Preparedness Goal The means to achieve it National Preparedness System Description The delivery; how we use what we build National Planning Frameworks Federal Interagency Operational Plans The reporting of our progress Annual National Preparedness Report The sustained engagement Build and sustain preparedness 4

how we use what we build National Planning Frameworks Federal Interagency Operational Plans The reporting

5 National Preparedness System 5

6 National Preparedness System Identifying and Assessing Risk and Estimating Capability Requirements Developing an understanding of its risks from natural, technological, and human-caused threats and hazards, allows a community to make informed decisions about how to manage risk and develop needed capabilities. The Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) process allows jurisdictions to identify threats and hazards of greatest concern; Guidance is available online in Comprehensive Preparedness Guide 201-Second Edition 6

manage risk and develop needed capabilities.

7 What is THIRA? THIRA is four-step common risk-assessment process that: Helps whole community members identify and understand likely vulnerabilities Results in a set of Capability Targets, and resource requirements which show where core capabilities need to be improved The whole community is: Individuals and families Businesses Faith-based and community organizations Nonprofit groups Schools and academia All levels of government The THIRA process is applicable to the whole community. 7

vulnerabilities Results in a set of Capability Targets, and resource requirements which show where core capabilities need

8 Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Process 8

9 Demonstration: Infrastructure Systems Definition in the National Preparedness Goal: Stabilize critical infrastructure functions, minimize health and safety threats, and efficiently restore and revitalize systems and services to support a viable, resilient community. 9

minimize health and safety threats, and efficiently restore and

10 Demonstration: Infrastructure Systems Threat/ Hazard Context Description Earthquake A magnitude 6.8 earthquake along a fault line beneath Commerce City, CO occurring during weekday rush hour, midwinter. Ground shaking and damage expected in 10 counties, extending throughout the Denver Metro Area, affecting 2.6 million people and significant infrastructure. 10

8 earthquake along a fault line beneath Commerce City, CO occurring during weekday rush

11 Demonstration: Infrastructure Systems Threat/ Hazard Context Description Estimated Impacts Desired Outcomes Earthquake A magnitude 6.8 earthquake along a fault line beneath Commerce City, CO occurring during weekday rush hour, midwinter. Ground shaking and damage expected in 10 counties, extending throughout the Denver Metro Area, affecting 2.6 million people and significant infrastructure 1 million households without power, damaged water lines, refinery, financial institutions, cyber infrastructure, roads and at least 2 major interstates. Public information systems inoperable, limited or no fuel, sanitation systems down, water boil orders. More than 20% of buildings moderately damaged with an additional 56,000 completely destroyed. 2,353 fatalities and 33,000 wounded, many of whom have access /functional needs. Within first 72 hours, conduct hazard assessments to determine what critical infrastructure must be stabilized to avoid further damage. Power distribution operations center restores and sustains essential services to both the public and private to maintain the community s functionality. Within 60 days, assess, monitor and provide resources to re-establish CI. 11

Ground shaking and damage expected in 10 counties, extending throughout the Denver Metro Area, affecting 2.

12 Demonstration: Infrastructure Systems Threat/ Hazard Earthquake Context Description Estimated Impacts Desired Outcomes Capability Target A magnitude 6.8 earthquake along a fault line beneath Commerce City, CO occurring during weekday rush hour, midwinter. Ground shaking and damage expected in 10 counties, extending throughout the Denver Metro Area, affecting 2.6 million people and significant infrastructure. 1 million households without power, damaged water lines, refinery, financial institutions, cyber infrastructure, roads and at least 2 major interstates. Public information systems inoperable, limited or no fuel, sanitation systems down, water boil orders. More than 20% of buildings moderately damaged with an additional 56,000 completely destroyed. 2,353 fatalities and 33,000 wounded, many of whom have access /functional needs. Within first 72 hours, conduct hazard assessments to determine what critical infrastructure must be stabilized to avoid further damage. Within five days, power distribution operations center restores and sustains essential services to both the public and private to maintain the community s functionality. Within 60 days, assess, monitor and provide resources to re-establish CI. Core Capability: Infrastructure Systems Within first 72 hours, conduct hazard assessments to determine what critical infrastructure must be stabilized to avoid further damage. Within five days, power distribution operations center restores and sustains essential services to 1 million households, industry and critical lifeline sectors to sustain essential services (both public and private) to maintain the community s infrastructure functionality. 12

Ground shaking and damage expected in 10 counties, extending throughout the Denver Metro Area, affecting 2.6 million people and significant infrastructure.

Apply the Results Communities estimate the resources required per core capability to meet the capability targets for each threat and hazard.

and drive preparedness activities. What resources are appropriate for achieving capability targets?

13 Apply the Results Communities estimate the resources required per core capability to meet the capability targets for each threat and hazard. Communities also plan to deliver the targeted level of capability with either community assets or through mutual aid, identify mitigation opportunities, and drive preparedness activities. What resources are appropriate for achieving capability targets? What are the typical performance characteristics of those resources? How might performance vary depending on the local conditions? Output of Step 4: List of resources required to achieve the identified capability targets 13 13

14 Ways to Use the THIRA Results 14 14

15 Other Benefits for Whole Community Partners The THIRA process can be used to: Inform exercise programs Enhance training courses Brief community leaders, senior officials, and the public on resource requirements 15

Enhance training courses Brief community leaders,

16 Questions? 16

Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Background/Overview and Process Briefing Homeland Security Preparedness Technical Assistance Program May 2012 PPD-8 Background A linking together of