Pensions and Longevity

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1 Steve Forrest Managing Director Risk Finance,, London November 2008 Pensions and Longevity Risks and Opportunities in UK and Europe

2 Developments of Annuity Markets External Factors Design and scale of social security systems Occupational retirement systems Mandatory saving frameworks Tax incentives Personal Pension Occupational Pension Longevity & Annuity Market State Pension 1

3 Where in the world? Schematic representation of selected annuity markets Life long annuities predominate Netherlands United Kingdom Germany Switzerland Canada Denmark Singapore Chile South Africa Mexico Alternative income forms predominate Belgium The size of the market is necessarily subjective, but is intended to give an indication relative to the size of the economy. Arrows around position show recent or expected changes or give a sense of the diversity in the marketplace. Ireland Sweden United States Australia Deferred Substantial annuity market Fairly significant market Small or nascent market Annuity market dominated by index linked products Immediate OECD publishing September

4 Sales of Retirement Income Products in UK Single Premium The UK is the largest immediate annuity market in the world due to compulsory annuitisation 14 in GBP bn Pension Annuities Income drawdown The UK retirement income market is set to more than double within five years Source: Association of British Insurers 3

5 Longevity / Annuity Market Activity Insurer to Insurer Back Book Transfers Pension Fund Buy-outs / Buy-ins Reinsurance support for new business Capital Market interest 4

6 Longevity / Annuity Market Activity Insurer to Insurer Back Book Transfers Pension Fund Buy-outs / Buy-ins Reinsurance support for new business Capital Market interest 5

7 UK Insurer to Insurer transfers of closed portfolios Major recent activity Seller Buyer Amount bn Date Structure Standard Life Canada Life 6.7 Feb-08 Reinsurance Equitable Canada Life 4.6 Feb-08 Part VII Transfer Equitable Prudential 1.8 Dec-07 Part VII Transfer CIS Swiss Re 1.8 Dec-07 Reinsurance Friends Provident Swiss Re 1.7 Apr-07 Reinsurance Zurich UK Swiss Re 3.7 Jan-07 Reinsurance Resolution Canada Life 2.2 Jun-05 Part VII Transfer CIS XL Re 1.0 Jan-05 Reinsurance Resolution Prudential 1.5 Jun-05 Part VII Transfer Royal London Prudential 1.7 Dec-05 Part VII Transfer Scottish Life (Royal London) Prudential 1.1 Dec-04 Reinsurance Source: 6

8 Future Developments of Insurer to Insurer Transfers Deferred rather than In Payment Continental Europe rather than UK 7

9 Longevity / Annuity Market Activity Insurer to Insurer Back Book Transfers Pension Fund Buy-outs / Buy-ins Reinsurance support for new business Capital Market interest 8

10 UK Occupational Pensions Managing legacy pension and annuity risks Corporate Sponsor concerns: Increases in longevity New accounting rules Increased scrutiny of pension liabilities by analysts, rating agencies and lenders Stock price volatility Tighter funding rules Pension Trustees influence on corporate activity Uncertainties about future pension legislation 9

11 UK Pension Fund Buy-out market Total assets in defined benefit Pension Funds circa 1.3 trillion Expected that billion will buy-out in the next 10 years Buy-out premiums H Q3 1.7 bn 1.7 bn 2.7 bn 4.0 bn 1.5 bn Current industry pipeline 20bn 35bn BUT economic conditions have changed! 10

12 The Credit Crunch and Pension Fund Buy-outs? Greater demand! Inability to buy! Alternative solutions Buy-in Structured Buy-out Longevity Swaps Capital market solutions Provider changes Exits New entrants Syndication / reinsurance / tranches However this marketplace does not lend itself to conventional co-insurance or syndication as all the direct markets wish to be seen as the provider of choice to the customer base 11

13 History of Pension Buyout Market in UK Number of providers PIC PATERNOSTER

14 Longevity / Annuity Market Activity Insurer to Insurer Back Book Transfers Pension Fund Buy-outs / Buy-ins Reinsurance support for new business Capital Market interest 13

15 Product Development in Europe Usually with significant reinsurance support Enhanced and Impaired 10% of all UK annuities Variable Annuities Still in infancy Expected to grow exponentially Isolated success stories already 14

16 Longevity / Annuity Market Activity Insurer to Insurer Back Book Transfers Pension Fund Buy-outs / Buy-ins Reinsurance support for new business Capital Market interest 15

17 Risks Longevity Reversion to mean Assets Corporate Bonds Credit and liquidity premium Implied default rate LIBOR Gilts (Treasuries) Regulation Bulk Annuities are capital intensive Solvency II 16

18 Solvency II Annuity Result ICA Balance Sheet Solvency II Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Free Surplus Free Surplus Solvency Capital Requirement ICA Capital Requirement Risk Margin Best Estimate liabilities Best Estimate liabilities Technical Provisions Corresponding increase on price Plus increase in volatility move out of bonds price even higher? 17

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