Predictive modeling for Academic Success: St. Petersburg College s approach to Advising Students for Senate Bill 1720

Transcription

1 Predictive modeling for Academic Success: St. Petersburg College s approach to Advising Students for Senate Bill 1720 Tonjua Williams, Ph.D., Senior Vice President, Student Services, St. Petersburg College Patrick Rinard, Ph.D., Associate Vice President, Enrollment Services, St. Petersburg College FDOE Florida Colleges Connections Conference May 8, 2014

2 Rising to the Challenge of Developmental Education Reform Session Roadmap SPC Success Data for Developmental Education Courses Addressing the Policy Change Placement Tracks Traditional & Flexible Analytical Work Predictions & Advising Solution Mathematics and Communications Reforms Training/Communication Spring Enrollment Data Next Steps 2

3 Traditional Developmental Education Delivery Course Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 ENC 0020/ % 57.1% 56% 67.6% MAT 0024/ % 50.9% 57.4% 56.3% REA 0002/ % 68.2% 65.2% 75% Redesigned Developmental Education Delivery Course Fall 2010 Fall 2011 Fall 2012 Fall 2013 ENC 0990 NA 68% 67.5% 79% MAT 0990 NA 54.2% 60.3% 69.2% REA 0990 NA 86.8% 78.7% 88.2% Source: Pulse, Business Intelligence, Student Success Rates report Developmental Education Success Rates 3

4 Developmental Education Reform is not new at St. Petersburg College. In Spring 2011, the college s deans of communications and mathematics implemented the Bridge to Success Courses in reading, writing, and mathematics. In Fall 2011, SPC implemented the College Experience initiative SPC Focus on Dev Ed Reform 4

5 New Student Orientation (NSO) Out of Class Support The College Experience My Learning Plan Integrated Academic Advising Early Alert System Focus on Student Success 5

6 Leadership support Oversight group Dev Ed Committee Front-line Engagement Regular BOT updates Technology Enhancements Early Implementation Plan Submission Monitoring Addressing the Policy 6

7 Educate advisors, faculty and Students on Developmental Education Reform Develop a process to advise students immediately after high school transcripts are received Take a broader view for Readiness Advisement Use multiple factors for assessment Provide students our best guidance and allow students to make choices Even if student does not take our advice provide support mechanisms Plan Overview 7

8 Using high school/military records, students are grouped into one of two placement tracks. Tools have been developed to assist academic advisors throughout the advising process. Flexible Placement Applicable for students who are no longer required to take the placement test and qualify to enroll directly in college-level coursework based on their high school/military records. Traditional Placement Applicable for all remaining students Requires valid test scores or completed coursework Placement Tracks 8

9 Advisors will provide students with options of accelerated pathways to college level courses MOOCS New developmental education options Co-requisite support courses Students who test into 1 or more developmental education courses are required to attend New Student Orientation and enroll in the College Success Course and Mentoring course Traditional Placement Track 9

10 Advisors will use data to recommend coursework Completed college courses Test scores (SAT/ACT/FCAT/PERT) High school courses/gpa If an electronic high school transcript is not available, staff can manually enter data using a program calculator to assist with recommendations for placement New Student Orientation (in-person version) and SLS1101 is optional for Flexible Placement students Flexible Placement Track 10

11 Spring 2013 vs. Spring 2014 Number of Students Number of Students , ,570 1, Face to Face Orientation Enrollment in SLS

12 Advising is REQUIRED for all Flexible Placement students Advisors review information, make recommendations, and provide options for each subject. The advisor may encourage the student to: Review sample college level questions Complete online pre-assessment Utilize the MOOC (Massive Open Online Course) Students confirm placement decisions using MySPC, the online student portal Flexible Placement Advising 12

13 Prediction Rubric for Writing 13

14 Prediction Rubric for Math 14

15 Traditional Placement Recommendations 15

16 Flexible Placement Recommendations 16

17 Flexible Placement Page 17

18 My Placement Page 18

19 Get Ready for College: Math MOOC Nearly 5,000 students have enrolled since May 2013 College Math Readiness 19

20 Friendly pre-assessment during registration period and on first day of class Developmental Mathematics courses: Modularized and Compressed formats Adaptive Learning and Lecture methods Mathematics Reforms 20

21 STEM and Business Programs Health Sciences, Education, Public Safety, etc. Calculus Track including College Algebra Liberal Arts Math or Statistics MAT1033: Intermediate Algebra MAT 1990: Exploration of Mathematics & Quantitative Reasoning New Mathematics Pathway 21

22 Get Ready for College: Writing and Get Ready for College: Reading MOOC in live pilot phase and Writing MOOC in development Diagnostic assessments available both online and in all Composition I classes Embedding instructional strategies for both in-class and out-of-class support College Reading/Writing Readiness 22

23 Developmental Reading 1/2 and Developmental Writing 1/2 : Modularized format, same classroom, same instructor to promote opportunities for acceleration. Writing and My Bridge to Success: Reading classes (8 weeks, 2 credit format): Compressed, modularized, and accelerated courses Composition I offered with co-requisite of a Writing Improvement course (8 weeks, 1 credit format) Communications Reforms 23

24 Preparing Students for College-level Work Developmental Education Reform Training Plan 24

25 Developmental Education Reform Training Plan for faculty, tutors and other academic staff: Module 1: Developmental Education Overview Module 2: Understanding Students in General Education Module 3: Embedding Success Strategies in Courses Module 4: Implementing Success Strategies in Courses Faculty Training 25

26 Developmental Education Training Plan for advising staff: Module 1: Developmental Education Reform General Overview (online) Module 2: Evidence for Flexible Placement (instructor-led) Module 3: New Advising Pages (instructor-led) Module 4: Understanding Curriculum Choices (instructorled) Module 5: Developmental Education Advising Role Play (instructor-led) Advisor Training 26

27 Revised Onboarding Steps for New Students Existing Web pages Letters, s, postcards New Web page for Developmental Education Reform Inviting current and former students who qualify to see advisor for additional options Communications 27

28 Evaluation Measures by Student Group I. Traditional Placement II. a. Flexible Placement (Accepted College Recommendation) II. b. Flexible Placement (Did Not Accept College Recommendation) All three groups will be evaluated on these 5 measures 1. Course enrollment disaggregated by developmental education strategy or option 2. Success Rate (grade of C or better) disaggregated by developmental education or option 3. Average time to successful completion of developmental education disaggregated by strategy or option 4. Average time to completion of gateway course 5. Average time to degree completion Evaluation Measures 28

29 Flexible Placement Enrollment (Spring 2014) Students Total Enrolled in Math Enrolled in Dev Ed Enrolled in CLM 24 DES DER LCR 833 Flexible Placement students are enrolled in a Math course 61% of Flex Students were recommended to take a Dev Ed math course Only 52% of those with Dev Ed recommendation enrolled in Dev Ed Math 48% of those with Dev Ed recommendation enrolled in College Level Math Developmental Education Math Predictions DES= Dev Ed Strongly Recommended DER= Dev Ed Recommended LCR= Likely College Ready 29

30 Flexible Placement Enrollment (Spring 2014) Students Total Enrolled in Writing Enrolled in Dev Ed Enrolled in ENC1101 DES DER LCR 803 Flexible Placement students enrolled in a Writing course 36% of Flex Students were recommended to take a Dev Ed writing course Only 36% of these students enrolled in a Dev Ed writing course 63% of these students enrolled in ENC1101 Developmental Education Writing Predictions DES= Dev Ed Strongly Recommended DER= Dev Ed Recommended LCR= Likely College Ready 30

31 Flexible Placement Enrollment (Spring 2014) Students Total Enrolled in Reading Enrolled in Dev Ed Enrolled in CLW DES DER LCR 713 students enrolled in Dev Ed Reading or ENC % Flexible Placement students were recommended to take a Dev Ed Reading course Only 25% of those with Dev Ed recommendation enrolled in a Dev Ed Reading course 75% of those with Dev Ed recommendation in Reading enrolled in ENC1101 Developmental Education Reading Predictions DES= Dev Ed Strongly Recommended DER= Dev Ed Recommended LCR= Likely College Ready 31

32 Developmental Education Enrollment down 23% (SSH) Developmental Education Subject Recommended Enrolled Course # of Dev Ed Recommended Flexible Placement Students Writing Composition I 175 Reading Composition I 223 Math Intermediate Algebra 235 Writing Other College-Level Courses* 152 Unduplicated Count 473 SSH= Student Semester Hours *Ethics, Humanities, Psychology, Speech, World Religion Source: SQL data extracted January 13, 2014 Spring Enrollment 32

33 Top 8 College-Level Course Enrollments Where Writing Prediction was Dev Ed Strongly Recommended or Recommended* Total # of Students Course Description 63 SPC1017 Introduction to Speech Communication 49 SLS1101 The College Experience 31 REL2300 World Religions 30 PHI1600 Studies in Applied Ethics 29 PSY1012 General Psychology 23 HUM2270 Humanities East West Synthesis 21 CGS1070 Basic Computer Information & Literacy 19 HUM2210 Western Humanities Ancient To Renaissance *Not including ENC1101 or College Level Math 33

34 Review outcomes from Spring 2014 term and make adjustments as needed Update Board of Trustees in May MAT 0022: Developmental Mathematics ENC Developmental Reading and Writing 2 (6 credit hours) Next Steps 34

35 Questions 35