Geoscience for Population Health Risk Assessment

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1 Geoscience for Population Health Risk Assessment R.A.Klassen University of Ottawa - Natural Resources Canada, November 2007

2 Key Message Biodiversity and health originate in the properties and workings of the earth s crust Through myriad exposure pathways of ingestion, inhalation and absorption a geological heritage is expressed in all living systems The origin, nature, and expression of that geological heritage are constrained through geoscience knowledge

absorption a geological heritage is expressed in all living systems The origin,

3 Purpose and Outline To examine geoscience and its role for population health risk assessment What is Geoscience Natural Science and Certainty How Geoscience Enhances Certainty Roles for Geoscience in Risk Assessment

Geoscience Natural Science and Certainty How

4 Geoscience What is it?

5 Geoscience - Geology Geology is the study of planet Earth Bedrock and its overlying mantle of unconsolidated earth materials Geological variation is expressed in terms of Properties - (mineralogy, geochemistry) Processes (structure, shape, mineralogy) Past (age)

Geological variation is expressed in terms of Properties -

6 Geoscience - Geology Crustal Processes

7 Geoscience - Geology Surficial Geological Processes Glacier Ice Wind Water

8 Geoscience - Geology Weathering and Soil Formation Australia - Stable Continent Ancient Weathering Canada - Glaciated Terrain Youthful Soils

9 Geoscience - Geology The Geological Record is Mineralogy Minerals are: Naturally-formed inorganic elements or compounds having definite structures and chemical compositions Minerals determine the chemical and physical properties of geological media Mineralogy reflects geological process and crustal environments of formation

chemical compositions Minerals determine the chemical and physical properties of

10 Certainty in Risk Assessment

11 Certainty in Risk Assessment The Natural Sciences Enhance Certainty in Risk Assessment Empirical Measurement Process Knowledge Environmental Models

12 Certainty in Risk Assessment Risk is the likelihood - the probability, of a hazard s occurrence

13 Certainty in Risk Assessment For geochemical hazards, risk is based on the combination of a stressor and an ecological receptor

14 Certainty in Risk Assessment Dose-Response curves indicate health effects

15 Certainty in Risk Assessment Air, Water, Soil More commonly, risk is indirectly based on empirical environmental measures

16 Certainty in Risk Assessment Empirical Measures of Air, Water, and Soil Chemical: Element concentrations, speciations, and combinations (synergistic effects) Physical: Particulate size, shape, density, hardness, and environmental reactivity

speciations, and combinations (synergistic effects)

17 Certainty in Risk Assessment Risk is based on knowledge of: Properties (air, water, soil) AND Processes that link properties with biological effects (health)

18 Certainty in Risk Assessment Net Certainty is the combined product of the Certainties in in predicting properties variations and in predicting their health effects

19 Certainty in Risk Assessment Net Certainty (probability of being right ) Certainty (properties variation) X Certainty (process effects)

20 Certainty in Risk Assessment Matrix Model High Certainty - Process LH Reactive LL HH Reactive Proactive HL Proactive Low Low Certainty - Properties High

21 Certainty in Risk Assessment Nature of Environmental Certainty As an empirical measure becomes more closely linked to health effects, the uncertainty in predicting its spatial and temporal variation increases Natural science may enhance certainty in knowledge of either a property or a process, but not both.

22 Certainty in Risk Assessment Matrix Model High Certainty - Process Air Water Bedrock - Soil Geoscience Low Low Certainty - Properties High

23 Geoscience and Certainty How Does Geoscience Enhance Certainty? Biology Pedology Geology

24 Geoscience and Certainty Variability in Soil Profiles Soil-Forming Factors Time, Temperature, Moisture, Organic Material, Topography, AND Parent Material

25 Geoscience and Certainty High Soil-Forming Processes O Biological A B O Biology Pedology Certainty - Process A B Pedological Soil Horizons Geological C C Geology Low Low Certainty - Properties High

26 Roles for Geoscience Enhance Certainty Risk Assessment Framework Stable, predictive environmental framework Natural variability - provenance, mineralogy, process Interpretive Tools Sampling and analytical protocols Provenance determination Predictive Environmental Models Soil properties, functions, and capacities

27 Roles for Geoscience Enhance Certainty Risk Assessment Framework Stable, predictive framework that constrains environmental variability in terms of geological provenance, process, and past

28 Framework Bedrock Maps

29 Framework Surficial Geological Maps Surficial Maps

30 Framework Geochemical Maps

31 Roles For Geoscience Enhance Certainty Risk Assessment Interpretive Tools Provenance and Process Sampling and Analytical Protocols

32 Interpretive Tools Provenance and Process - Scale Values

33 Interpretive Tools Process Models Sedimentology (process models) Dispersal Modeling (predictive tools) Mineral Partitioning (grain size effects)

34 Interpretive Tools Certainty and Geological Process Erosion, Transport, Deposition High A B C Certainty - Process Low Till Glacial Lake Marine Low Certainty - Properties High Site-Specific Area-Specific Region-Specific

35 Interpretive Tools Certainty and Geological Provenance Bedrock Provenance High A B Certainty - Process Carbonate C Shield Clastic Low Low Certainty - Properties High Site-Specific Area-Specific Region-Specific

36 Interpretive Tools Interpretation of Empirical Measures Environmental Properties and Exposure Pathways How Independent Geological Factors (provenance, process, and past) combine with Dependent Analytical Factors (grain size, decomposition strength, instrumentation) Determines the magnitude of analytical results and their interpretive value for risk assessment.

37 Interpretive Tools Analytical Results Provenance, Mineralogy, and Process

38 Interpretive Tools Grain Size and Mineral Partitioning

39 Interpretive Tools Certainty and Protocol Grain Size High A B C Certainty - Process Low <2 <0.063 <0.002 Low Uncertainty - Properties High

40 Interpretive Tools Protocol Comparison Acid Decomposition

41 Interpretive Tools High Certainty and Protocol Acid Strength A B Certainty - Process Weak C Strong Total Low Low Certainty - Properties High

42 Interpretive Tools Threshold Values and Risk Risk Assessment

43 Roles For Geoscience Enhance Certainty Risk Assessment Predictive Environmental Models Earth Material properties, functions, and capacities Based on Mineralogy

44 Predictive Models Earth Material Properties, Functions, Capacities Host, support, and nourish the biomass at the earth s surface Determine natural distributions, abundance, and potential bioaccessibility of elements Sequester, transmit, buffer, and modify groundwater and soil gas Receive, modify, store, and transmit contaminants Characterized by properties, functions, and capacities that are both finite and variable Subject to change (reversible, irreveversible)

45 Environmental Models Provenance, Process, and Geochemical Properties Proactive Risk Assessment - Geology and Mineralogy

46 Environmental Models Provenance, Process, and Geochemical Properties Geochemical Background Variation Linked to Geological Terrains

47 Environmental Models Provenance and Process Predictive Modeling - Point Sources and Glacial Dispersal - Bedrock Sources Source

48 Environmental Models Provenance, Process, and Effects Geological Sources, Glacial Dispersal, and Biological Effects Glacial Dispersal Train - Ni Biological Effects

49 Environmental Models Provenance, Process, and Risk Point Sources and Eolian Dispersal - Smelter Emissions

50 Environmental Models Provenance, Process, and Risk Geology and Mineralogy - Asbestos - Health Effects Sacramento, CA

51 Environmental Models Geological Origins of Geochemical Variation Proactive Risk Assessment - Geology and Mineralogy - Radon

52 Environmental Models Soil Gas (Rn) Risk Potential Proactive Risk Assessment - Geology and Mineralogy - Radon

53 Environmental Models Provenance and Geochemistry Flourine in Southern Ontario C-Horizon Geological Properties A-Horizon Human - Influenced

54 Environmental Models A-Soil Horizon Geochemical Associations Synergies and Interpretive Risk Modeling C-Soil Horizon C-Soil Horizon

55 Environmental Models Environmental Change Mineralogy, Redox potential (Eh-pH), Element Mobility

56 Environmental Models Environmental Change Proactive Risk Assessment - Trace Elements - Land Use

57 Environmental Models Environmental Change Mineralogy, Redox potential (Eh-pH), Element Mobility Surface Disturbance and Potential Trace Element Flux Biological Effects

58 Environmental Models Environmental Change Mineralogy, Redox potential (Eh-pH), Element Mobility

59 Environmental Models Environmental Change Mineralogy, Redox potential (Eh-pH), Element Mobility ANC, Critical Loads Acid Rain Sensitivity Map Eastern Canada

60 Roles for Geoscience Enhance Certainty Risk Assessment Framework Stable, predictive environmental framework Natural variability - provenance, mineralogy, process Interpretive Tools Sampling and analytical protocols Provenance determination Predictive Environmental Models Soil properties, functions, and capacities

61 Key Message Biodiversity and health originate in the properties and workings of the earth s crust

Geoscientists follow paths of exploration and discovery in quest of solutions to some of society's most challenging problems.

Page 1 of 5 Geoscientists follow paths of exploration and discovery in quest of solutions to some of society's most challenging problems. Predicting the behavior of Earth systems and the universe. Finding