Investment Perspective by Invesco Global Asset Allocation

Transcription

1 Invetment Perpective by Inveco Global Aet Allocation 3rd quarter 2011 Thi marketing document i excluively for ue by profeional client and financial advior in Continental Europe and i not for retail client ue. Pleae do not reditribute.

2 Global Aet Allocation Team The Inveco Global Aet Allocation Team, headed by Scott Wolle, i one of three ub-team of Inveco Global Strategie. The team focue on alternative invetment trategie and eek to deliver poitive abolute performance regardle of market condition. The team capabilitie include global tactical aet allocation, active currency, rik premium capture, and multi-trategy olution. Additionally, the team work directly with client to develop cutomized portfolio olution uing variou mean of implementation, uch a abolute return, overlay and portable alpha trategie. A at the end of June 2011, the team manage USD 10.3 bn in aet on behalf of client through tactical aet allocation, rik-balanced and multiple aet trategie. The Global Aet Allocation team approach begin with an undertanding of the fundamental driver of aet cla performance. Driver include valuation, monetary condition, economic growth and entiment. The team then tranlate the driver into client portfolio uing a tranparent, quantitative proce. Primarily future and forward are ued to implement the trategy which allow tremendou flexibility in providing client olution. Scott Wolle, CFA erve a Chief Invetment Officer (CIO) for Inveco Global Aet Allocation team. He i upported by portfolio manager Mark Ahnrud, CFA; Scott Hixon, CFA; Chri Devine, CFA; Chritian Ulrich, CFA; Bernhard Pfaff and analyt Raymond Fu. Scott joined Inveco in 1999 and the Global Aet Allocation team in He began hi invetment career in 1991 and wa with Bank of America prior to joining Inveco. Scott career include fundamental and quantitative reearch reponibilitie covering the major aet clae with a focu on equity market and commoditie. Scott received hi B.S. in Finance from Virginia Tech, graduating Magna Cum Laude. He received hi MBA from the Fuqua School of Buine at Duke Univerity where he earned the ditinction of Fuqua Scholar. Scott hold the Chartered Financial Analyt deignation.

3 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview Invetor have long relied on treaury bond a an aet that offer relative tability in time of economic and financial tre. Indeed, during 2008 long-duration U.S. Treaurie roe 24% 1 while mot other aet lot value. But high and riing level of public indebtedne have begun to make invetor quetion whether government bond will continue to behave in thi manner. The firt part of thi commentary explore an approach invetor could ue to improve the likelihood that their government bond retain their hitoric poition in invetor portfolio. The econd ection review the impact of the Greek crii and other event on financial market during the econd quarter. Sovereign Debt and High-Quality Government Bond A concern about Greece and the ret of peripheral Europe mount, it i eay to forget that jut a few year ago invetor treated Greek government debt a equivalent quality to Germany. A hown in the exhibit below, from the 10-year government bond for both countrie had nearly the ame yield and return. Exhibit 1: Greek and German Bond: Germany Greece Yield % Germany Greece Yield % Dec-99 Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 0 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Jun-11 Source: Bloomberg, Datatream, Inveco analyi. Yield for Datatream Benchmark 10-year Bond indice Data from Dec. 31, Dec. 31, Data from Dec. 31, 2007 June 30, Data a of June 30, 2011, unle otherwie tated. 1 A repreented by the Barclay Capital Long Treaury Index for calendar year A credit default wap (CDS) i a form of inurance. The purchaer pay a premium for protection and i paid if the borrower default. In the ame way that the cot of car inurance rie if the driver i found to be reckle and therefore increaingly likely to be in an accident the cot of CDS rie along with rik of default. CDS cot are expreed in the pread, which repreent the percentage of an invetment amount that i paid annually. The percentage are typically hown in term of bai point (bp). One bai point = 0.01%. A pread of 200 bp i therefore equal to 2.00%. Of coure, many aumption have changed ince 2007, epecially a it relate to government ability and willingne to repay their debt. Like many debt crie before it, the great receion and it aftermath ha witneed a hift in debt from the private to public ector. Riing credit default wap (CDS) pread reflect the general decline in credit quality for government debt (Exhibit 2). 2 3 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

4 Exhibit 2: CDS Spread (bp) on 5-year Bond for Select Market Autralia France Germany Italy Japan U.S. UK 40 Market Median CDS Spread /31/06 2/28/07 4/30/07 6/29/07 8/31/07 10/31/07 12/31/07 2/29/08 4/30/08 6/30/08 8/29/08 10/31/08 12/31/08 2/27/09 4/30/09 6/30/09 8/31/09 10/30/09 12/31/09 2/26/10 4/30/10 6/30/10 8/31/10 10/29/10 12/31/10 2/28/11 4/29/11 Source: Bloomberg, Datatream, Inveco analyi. Data from Dec. 31, May 31, In our view, the appeal of government bond lie in their hitoric tendency to rie during period of financial and economic tre. Government bond hould be the major exception to the old aw that nothing rie in a bear market except for correlation. Indeed, the recent behavior of mot government bond ha conformed preciely to thi decription 10-year yield have fallen to their low for the year while mot other aet have lot value (Exhibit 9). How then hould invetor reconcile thee two item: the need for bond to erve a a high-quality aet and the general decline in government credit-worthine? Clearly, we cannot ignore the very real rik and would do well to employ a proce to monitor government credit rik and reduce expoure a rik rie beyond a tolerable threhold. Such an approach would need to meet at leat three requirement: it hould be 1) broadly applicable, 2) timely, and 3) effective. We can evaluate a few general rik-monitoring approache relative to thee requirement to focu in on the mot promiing one. We review three approache in the table on page 3. The firt, the macro-economic variable approach, ha a trong hitory in academic literature (ee IMF, Roubini, Reinhart) and ha found ome practical ue in early warning ignal for emerging market. 3 The approach face two major challenge. Firt, uer will find it difficult to define a ingle et of variable that apply to all market. The effectivene of variable will depend on the particular circumtance of each country (e.g., whether debt i denominated in local or foreign currency). Second, macro-economic variable are available with a lag and are often ubject to reviion (and ometime manipulation). Data a of June 30, 2011, unle otherwie tated. 3 Manae, Paolo & Roubini, ouriel, Rule of Thumb for Sovereign Debt Crie, Journal of International Economic, Elevier, vol. 78(2), page International Monetary Fund. Debt- and Reerve-Related Indicator of External Vulnerability. IMF, Goldtein, Morri, Graciela L. Kaminky, and Carmen M. Reinhart. Aeing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning Sytem for Emerging Market. Wahington, DC: Intitute for International Economic, Credit rating offer another mean of evaluating rik. While thi may offer the appeal of conitent interpretation, rating change have often been notoriouly late which limit their effectivene. In certain cae, change in rating have had no bearing on the performance of the market (ee the cae of Japan, Exhibit 3 below). 4 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

5 Exhibit 3: Japanee Bond Yield and Credit Rating Change Japanee Government Bond Yield Rating Change JGB Yield /22/2001 AA+ AA 11/27/ /23/2007 AA 04/15/2002 AA- AA- 01/27/ /31/99 4/28/00 8/31/00 12/29/00 4/30/01 8/31/01 12/31/01 4/30/02 8/30/02 12/31/02 4/30/03 8/29/03 12/31/03 4/30/04 8/31/04 12/31/04 4/29/05 8/31/05 12/30/05 4/28/06 8/31/06 12/29/06 4/30/07 8/31/07 12/31/07 4/30/08 8/29/08 12/31/08 4/30/09 8/31/09 12/31/09 4/30/10 8/31/10 12/31/10 4/29/11 Source: Bloomberg, S&P, Datatream, Inveco analyi. Data a of July 5, A credit rating i an aement provided by a nationally recognized tatitical rating organization (RSRO) of the creditworthine of an iuer with repect to debt obligation, including pecific ecuritie, money market intrument or other debt. Rating are meaured on a cale that generally range from AAA (highet) to D (lowet); rating are ubject to change without notice. R indicate the debtor wa not rated, and hould not be interpreted a indicating low quality. For more information on Standard and Poor rating methodology, pleae viit and elect Undertanding Rating under Rating Reource on the homepage. Finally, we conider CDS pread. CDS pread have a much horter hitory than the other two method decribed above but look attractive on our criteria. The contruction and reult of an initial tet are hown in the next ection. Exhibit 4: Summary Of Credit Evaluation Method Criteria Broadly Applicable Timely Effective Macro-Economic The particular Data i available with a Application for early Ue economic circumtance of lag and i often revied warning ytem for variable to ae market will require currency and banking crie debt utainability emphai on different variable Credit Rating The rating for variou Rating change Due to timeline iue, the Ue rating from major countrie hould be frequently occur only effectivene for thi agencie to determine conitent after ubtantial application i upect. whether a government change in credit profile i worthy of invetment CDS Spread Invetor hould be Spread available on an Initial tet are encouraging Ue CDS pread to able to interpret CDS intra-day bai (Exhibit 7) determine whether pread conitently bond are relatively table 5 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

6 The CDS pread tet follow a traight-forward approach: invet fully in bond market of countrie with the highet credit quality a reflected in low CDS pread. Reduce expoure relative to normal level a pread rie and have a zero weight when pread hit the median level. The proce i hown in Exhibit 5. Exhibit 5: Summary Proce for Identifying High-Quality Government Bond Market Univere Define univere of countrie. For thi tet, the univere conited of countrie with $100 billion in GDP. High-Quality Riky Define cut-off for high-quality and riky aet. In thi cae, 25th percentile define high-quality and 75th repreent riky. 100% 0% Map developed market to the percentile and weight. Market at median and above receive no weight. Comparion Source: Datatream, Inveco analyi. Compare the adjuted weight with an equally-weighted benchmark along with a ingle high-quality aet. We ue the equally-weighted univere of developed market a the main comparion (19 market overall). The proce decribed above would reult in the weight hown in the exhibit below. ote that the center vertical portion of the graph contain mot of the countrie engulfed in crie over the pat year (Greece, Portugal, Ireland). By early in 2009 thee countrie, along with thoe who face the mot immediate rik of contagion, fell to a very low or zero weight. Japan weight would have fallen to approximately one-third of it original weight over the pat ix month. Exhibit 6: CDS-Adjuted Weight UK US CH SD ES PT W Z L JP IT IR GR BD FR DK BG OE AU Weight (%) /31/07 3/30/07 5/31/07 7/31/07 9/28/07 11/30/07 1/31/08 3/31/08 5/30/08 7/31/08 9/30/08 11/28/08 1/30/09 3/31/09 5/29/09 7/31/09 9/30/09 11/30/09 1/29/10 3/31/10 5/31/10 7/30/10 9/30/10 11/30/10 1/31/11 3/31/11 5/31/11 Source: Bloomberg, Datatream, Inveco analyi. Data a of May 31, AU = Autralia BD = Germany L = etherland SD = Sweden OE = Autria GR = Greece Z = ew Zealand CH = Switzerland BG = Belgium IR = Ireland W = orway US = United State DK = Denmark IT = Italy PT = Portugal UK = United Kingdom FR = France JP = Japan ES = Spain 6 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

7 In term of return comparion, the CDS-adjuted index tarted to behave differently than the equally-weighted index in late A a point of comparion, German government bond hitorically a high-quality aet that hould have benefited from European turmoil poeed a imilar return profile. The main concluion i that thi type of methodology eem likely to help government bond portfolio retain their valuable role within portfolio. Exhibit 7: Total Return Of Selected Government Bond Indexe CDS-Adjuted Index Equally-Weighted Index German Bond Index Return Index /31/06 2/28/07 4/30/07 6/29/07 8/31/07 10/31/07 12/31/07 2/29/08 4/30/08 6/30/08 8/29/08 10/31/08 12/31/08 2/27/09 4/30/09 6/30/09 8/31/09 10/30/09 12/31/09 2/26/10 4/30/10 6/30/10 8/31/10 10/29/10 12/31/10 2/28/11 4/29/11 CDS- Adjuted Equal Germany Return 6.21% 3.94% 5.93% Rik 5.28% 5.35% 6.26% Return/Rik 1.17% 0.74% 0.94% Rik i repreented by Standard Deviation. The CDS-Adjuted Index i calculated by multiplying the weight found in Exhibit 6 by the total return of the Datatream Benchmark 10-Year Government Bond Indice. The Equally-Weighted Index i calculated by taking the average total return of the Datatream Benchmark 10-Year Government Bond Index for all market conidered in Exhibit 6. The German Bond Index refer to the total return for the Datatream 10-Year German Government Bond Index. All indice are rebaed to 100 on 12/31/2006. Source: Datatream, Bloomberg, Inveco analyi, data a at 31 May Second quarter market overview Equitie The challenge facing everal heavily indebted European countrie had implication far beyond government bond market. Equitie tarted to weaken in the middle of the quarter and faced even greater volatility toward the end of the quarter. Mot fundamentally, it appear that the authoritie have choen to treat a olvency crii with liquidity meaure. The deferral of almot inevitable loe may ultimately provide ome benefit but it carrie rik a well. The potential loe will likely only grow with time and the many tage of the bailout will offer ample opportunity for crii condition to re-emerge. While the variou partie have agreed to the neceary firt tep the next tranche of the original bailout and new auterity meaure many of the mot difficult tep lie in the future. The rating agencie, private invetor, and the Greek populace all have important role to play and their action to date do little to bolter confidence. 7 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

8 Unfortunately, the rie of uncertainty about Greece future coincided with a weakening of the global economy. One can point to everal potential caue upply chain diruption related to Japan, the weather, etc. but the weakne ha been remarkably extenive a reflected in economic urprie indice (Exhibit 8) and a variety of purchaing manager indice. Exhibit 8: Global Economic Activity G10 Economic Surprie Index (An index value of zero indicate that economic data i conitent with expectation) Economic Surprie Index /31/09 1/28/10 2/25/10 3/25/10 4/22/10 5/20/10 6/17/10 7/15/10 8/12/10 9/9/10 10/7/10 11/4/10 12/2/10 12/30/10 1/27/11 2/24/11 3/24/11 4/21/11 5/19/11 6/16/11 Source: Bloomberg, Inveco analyi. Data from Dec. 31, July 6, U.S. ISM ew Order (An index value above 50 indicate that new order are increaing relative to the prior month) ISM ew Order Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 ov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Intitute for Supply Management (ISM) Data from Dec. 31, June 30,2011. We reduced our equity expoure during the quarter and are now roughly neutral equitie (Exhibit 10). Although our valuation metric and the likely path of the economy till offer favorable reading, volatility and price trend end offetting ignal. Unle our economic indicator begin to point to a receion thi will likely repreent the trough in our equity ignal. Commoditie Like equitie, mot commoditie experienced increaed volatility during the quarter. Commoditie with economic enitivity oil and copper, for example certainly reacted to the riing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. However, everal additional factor weighed on commoditie. Mot notably, the International Energy Agency (IEA) choe to releae 60 million barrel of oil. Although thi repreent le than one day conumption, releae of thi magnitude have hitorically had a material negative impact on price. Invetor often view copper a the mot economically enitive commodity. Today, it movement reflect hifting entiment on China economy. Predictably, attention ha hifted from Chinee over-heating to the poibility of a ubtantial downturn. China level of invetment certainly raie the pecter of a but, but the evidence to date doe not yet upport uch concern. During the quarter, our commodity poition hifted from ignificantly overweight to lightly above neutral (Exhibit 10). Thi reulted primarily from change in term tructure and price momentum. Agricultural commoditie bore a ubtantial amount of the reduction a heightened upply concern tarted to recede. We till find preciou metal attractive. Government bond A noted in the earlier dicuion, government bond proved their worth in difficult circumtance. During the quarter yield fell to their lowet level of the year depite concern of debt utainability and the end of the econd round of quantitative eaing (QE2). We decribed yield a above fair value lat quarter and continue to find them roughly conitent with the economic fundamental (though omewhat below fair value). Fear about riky aet and attractive price trend alo favor bond (Exhibit 10). 8 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

9 Currencie Our currency poition remain relatively table with underweight poition in everal large market (USD, EUR, GBP) funding overweight in mot emerging market currencie along with a number of higher-yielding market uch a the Autralian Dollar. A in all aet clae, we view currencie through the three lene: valuation, economic environment, and price trend and reveral. Price trend and the economic environment provide upport for mot emerging market and valuation appear to be neutral or better in mot cae. Summary Economie houldering high debt burden face ubtantial growth headwind, o even ordinary mid-cycle lowdown poe above average rik. Our allocation to rikier aet have likely hit their trough without an additional, ignificant deterioration in the economic outlook. We maintain an overweight to government bond, which may operate a a hedge againt uch circumtance. Financial market remain vulnerable to imilar rik factor a lat quarter, with Europe topping the lit. A noted above, a number of key hurdle tand in front of a timely reolution to the Greek crii (e.g., ultimate deal tructure, rating agency view, Greek performance againt commitment). In addition, the U.S. ha yet to addre the debt ceiling. We, along with mot market participant, are encouraged by the progre o far and view the implication of a default are ufficiently large to drive a political agreement. Still, the poibility of a tail event cannot be dimied. Exhibit 9: Second Quarter and Year-to-Date Return Figure 1: Equitie (%) Figure 2: Fixed Income (%) 1 YTD Quarterly YTD Quarterly S&P 500 S&P/TSX FTSE 100 EuroStoxx Topix Hang Seng MSCI Emerging U.S. Long Ty Barclay Agg TIPS U.S. High Yield Emerging Debt Figure 3: Commoditie (%) 2 YTD Quarterly GSCI Energy Figure 4: Currencie (%) 3 YTD Quarterly USD Index Preciou Metal JPY CAD Bae Metal AUD Agriculture Emerging FX Source: Standard & Poor, FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ). FTSE 2011., Dow Jone, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Hang Seng, MSCI, Barclay Capital Inc., Bank of America Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan, S&P/GSCI, BBA Inveco. Performance data a of June 30, Pat performance cannot guarantee future reult. An invetment cannot be made in an index. 1 Bond categorie are repreented by the following indice: Barclay Capital Long U.S. Treaury Index, Barclay Capital Aggregate Bond Index, Barclay Capital U.S. Treaury Inflation Protected Securitie (TIPS) Index, Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield Mater II Index, JP Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index. 2 Energy, preciou metal, bae metal and agriculture are all ub-component of the S&P GSCI Index. 3 Return veru the U.S. Dollar Index. EUR GBP 9 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

10 Exhibit 10: Repreentative Poition 1 a of June 30, 2011 Overweight eutral Underweight Equitie Commoditie Market Poition Market Poition U.S. Energy Canada preciou Metal U.K. Indutrial Metal Europe ex-u.k. Agriculture Japan Emerging Fixed Income Currencie Market Long-Term Treaury Invetment Grade High Yield Emerging Debt Cah Poition Currency U.S. Dollar Euro Britih Pound Canadian Dollar Autralian Dollar Japanee Yen Poition Emerging Currencie 1 The Global Aet Allocation team ha a view on a wider range of aet than hown here but thee are the aet mot frequently aked about by client. Poition are revied on a monthly bai. The repreentative poition are baed on our experience in managing the Inveco Premia Plu trategy. 10 Global Aet Allocation Quarterly Update and Overview

11 Inveco Continental Europe Amterdam Bruel Frankfurt Madrid Milan Pari Stockholm Vienna Zurich Thi publication i for profeional client and financial advier in Continental Europe only. It i not intended for and hould not be ditributed to, or relied upon, by the public. Data a at 30 June 2011, unle otherwie tated. All article in thi publication are written, unle otherwie tated, by Inveco profeional, and opinion expreed are thoe of the author or Inveco. Opinion and forecat are ubject to change without notice. The ditribution and the offering of fund in certain juridiction may be retricted by law. Peron into whoe poeion thi document may come are required to inform themelve about and to comply with any relevant retriction. Thi doe not contitute an offer or olicitation by anyone in any juridiction in which uch an offer i not authoried or to any peron to whom it i unlawful to make uch an offer or olicitation. Peron intereted in acquiring fund hould inform themelve a to (i) the legal requirement in the countrie of their nationality, reidence, ordinary reidence or domicile; (ii) any foreign exchange control and (iii) any relevant tax conequence. For information on fund regitration, pleae refer to the appropriate internet ite or your local Inveco office. Thi marketing document doe not form part of any propectu. Whilt great care ha been taken to enure that the information contained herein i accurate, no reponibility can be accepted for any error, mitake or omiion or for any action taken in reliance thereon. The value of invetment, and the income from them, can fluctuate (thi may partly be the reult of exchange rate fluctuation), and invetor may not get back the full amount inveted. Pat performance i not an indication of future performance, provide no guarantee for the future and i not contant over time. The performance data hown doe not take account of the commiion and cot incurred on the iue and redemption of unit. Any reference to a ranking. a rating or an award provide no guarantee for future performance reult and i not contant over time. There i potential for increaed volatility in emerging tock market, and only a modet proportion of invetable wealth hould be inveted in them. Inveting in fund focued on pecific theme, particular area of the market or mall capitaliation companie may increae the rik aociated with them due to the volatility and/or the concentrated nature of thee invetment. Invetor hould read the fund implified and full propectue for pecific rik factor and further information. Thi document i not an invitation to ubcribe for hare in the fund and i by way of information only. It i not intended to provide pecific invetment advice including, without limitation, invetment, financial, legal, accounting or tax advice, or to make any recommendation about the uitability of the fund() for the circumtance of any particular invetor. You hould take appropriate advice a to any ecuritie, taxation or other legilation affecting you peronally prior to invetment. Aet management ervice are provided by Inveco in accordance with appropriate local legilation and regulation. Denmark: Thi document i provided only at the requet of a profeional client or qualified invetor and i intended for the ole ue of thi peron. Additional information for Germany, Autria and Switzerland: Thi document i iued in Germany by Inveco Aet Management Deutchland GmbH regulated by Bundeantalt für Finanzdientleitungauficht. Thi document i iued in Autria by Inveco Aet Management Öterreich GmbH and in Switzerland by Inveco Aet Management (Schweiz) AG, who act a repreentative for the fund regitered for ale in Switzerland. Subcription of hare are only accepted on the bai of the current fund propectu. Swi profeional client hould conider thi document only in connection with the relevant monthly fund fact heet which contain further performance information. Propectue and report are available free of charge at Inveco Aet Management Deutchland GmbH, An der Welle 5, D Frankfurt/M., Inveco Aet Management Öterreich GmbH, Rotenturmtrae 16-18, A-1010 Vienna, and Inveco Aet Management (Schweiz) AG, Stockertrae 14, CH-8002 Zurich. Paying agent for the fund regitered for ale in Switzerland: BP Pariba Securitie Service, Pari, Zürich branch, Selnautrae 16, CH-8002 Zurich.